Week One Picks
At last, the 2012 NFL season is here. I’ve waited an awful long time for the chance to be embarrassingly wrong about a whole big bunch of football games again. So let’s get to it. Here’s what not to expect.
Dallas (+3.5) at NY Giants
No one will be saying this tomorrow or next week — the talk will all be about how the defending champs just don’t lose the season opener — but sometime between eight and 17 weeks from now, folks are going to look back and opine that this is where it all started to unravel for the 2012 Cowboys. I don’t know if Amani Toomer’s claim that Tony Romo is a better QB than Eli Manning is correct (Romo certainly has better passing stats than Manning, but Eli does have those two rings) but what I do know is that Manning plays for a much better team. Most important for this game, and this season, Manning plays for a team with a mean pass rush, while Romo plays for a team with a highly suspect (this is putting it nicely) offensive line. That means sacks. With a quarterback who’s consistently exhibited poor decision making, it also most likely means picks. And those add up to a whole lot of ugly. I think the Cowboys are in for a long, ugly season, and I think it starts here with a blowout loss to the defending champs. Giants by 17.
Indianapolis (+9.5) at Chicago
It’s often said that the biggest challenge an NFL rookie faces is adjusting to the speed of the game. Just wait till young Andrew Luck gets a load of the fast, even by NFL standards, Chicago pass rush. That’s gonna be a baptism of fire. I still don’t have much faith in the Chicago offense, but even so, I think its reasonable to anticipate a 10-point Bears victory.
Philadelphia (-8.5) at Cleveland
The Browns may or may not be the worst team in the league. But they most certainly are the worst team in this game. By an awful lot. Like 14 points, maybe more.
Buffalo (+3) at NY Jets
Home field is only an advantage when the crowd’s on your side. New Jersey fans should have the Tebow chant going by halftime. Bills, 7-3.
Washington (+7) at New Orleans
RGIII will have his day (and soon enough) but it’s not gonna be this one. The Saints just have way too much to prove to let this game slip away. New Orleans by two touchdowns.
New England (-5.5) at Tennessee
The Patriots have one guy to stop in this game. I suppose you could say the same thing about the Titans. But it’s different. Different kind of guy. New England by nine.
Jacksonville (+3.5) at Minnesota
No, you’re wrong. There is someone who cares about this game. His name is Matt Barkley.
Miami (+12.5) at Houston
The only way the Texans win this game by fewer than 30 points is if they take their foot off the gas.
St. Louis (+7) at Detroit
I was just getting ready to write, “The Lions can’t lose this game and call themselves contenders,” when I realized that the last four words of that sentence are entirely unnecessary. Detroit by 13.
Atlanta (-3) at Kansas City
Forget the preseason, Romeo Crennel‘s gonna have his team ready to go. And the Falcons aren’t as good as you think they are. Chiefs by a field goal.
San Francisco (+5) at Green Bay
These two teams could very well meet again on January 20 with a trip to Super Bowl XLVII on the line. And if they do, there’s at least an even chance that the winner of this game will be the host on that day. So that’s not too much pressure for a season opener, is it? Here’s the deal: Green Bay’s offense is as good as it was last year; its defense is better. San Francisco’s defense is as good as it was last year; its offense looks like it’s better. This game is going to turn on one key mistake. And I just have to feel like the visiting squad will be the one to make it. Packers by three.
Carolina (-2.5) at Tampa Bay
Next week, you’ll hear folks talking about the result of this game and holding it up as evidence that Cam Newton and the Panthers are going to contend for a playoff spot. When that happens, try to keep in mind that the Panthers’ opponents were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina by six.
Seattle (-2.5) at Arizona
It could be worse. You could have to watch this game. Seahawks by a point.
Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Denver
The Steelers are probably the better team, but they’re not coming out ahead in this game. The Broncos are going to be a tough team to play in Denver all season. And Peyton Manning has something to prove in the home opener. Denver by three.
Cincinnati (+6) at Baltimore
If this game were in Cincinnati, I’d be tempted to pick the Bengals. No, really. I would. The Bengals may actually have the better defense in this match. And their offense is good enough to keep pace with a Ravens O that I expect to get off to a slow start. But the game isn’t in Cincinnati. So I’m not taking the Bengals. I’m taking the home team, though I expect them to win by just three or four.
San Diego (+1) at Oakland
I was going to predict an upset in this game right up until I discovered that the Raiders were favored. A long, difficult season for Philip Rivers begins with a long, difficult night in Oakland. Raiders, 17-9.
