Week Fifteen Picks, The Rest
I knew I’d get to the rest of this week’s picks eventually. This much wrong just has to find an outlet. Here’s what not to expect.
Cincinnati (-7) at St. Louis
The Bengals probably aren’t making the playoffs. They’re 7-6, like the Raiders and Titans, and a game behind the Frat Boys in the race for the final AFC wild card spot. They need to win out just to to stay in contention, and a week 17 appointment with the Ravens is going to get in the way of their achieving that goal. In the meantime, though, I expect to see Cincinnati play like a team on a mission, which is bad news for the sputtering Rams and their soon-to-be ex-coach. Bengals by double the spread.
Green Bay (-13.5) at Kansas City
Once the Packers wrap up the NFC one seed with their beatdown of the Chiefs, the media will start to talk about whether the team should make a push for 16-0 (and then 19-0) or rest starters and ensure they stay healthy for the playoffs. I don’t think it’s an either/or situation. I mean, it’s not like you want your best players sitting around getting rusty for three weeks. They’ve got to play some. And the fact is (with apologies to fans of the Bears and Lions), given that this is Green Bay’s last road trip of the season, there isn’t a game left on the Packers’ schedule that they can’t sew up with a solid half of play from their starters. I know, I know. Any given Sunday and all. That’s nice. But, come on. The fact is, 16-0 is effectively a done deal. And even if you don’t buy that, you’ve got to figure 14-0 isn’t going to be much of a struggle. Green Bay by 20.
Seattle (+3.5) at Chicago
I know I haven’t had a good thing to say about the Seahawks all season, but you know what? I have a feeling Seattle may pull off an upset here. I’m pretty sure Chicago’s post-season hopes officially fell apart with the Bears’ ridiculous performance in the closing minutes last weekend in Denver. And the Seahawks certainly have put together solid performances over the past couple of weeks, albeit at home against the Eagles and Rams. And I know the Seahawks are traveling on a short week. But still, I don’t know. I’ve just got a hunch. Seattle by a point.
Tennessee (-6.5) at Indianapolis
With 0-16 all but locked up, will the Colts rest starters? Titans by 10.
Washington (+6.5) at NY Giants
The Native Americans played the Patriots tough last weekend. So that’s nice for them. Doesn’t mean much, especially since they still lost but it’s nice. The Giants, meanwhile, worked their way into a tie-breaker with the Cowboys for first place in the NFC East. That won’t mean much in the long run either. Neither the New Jersey nor Dallas has any real hope of getting past Green Bay or New Orleans (and probably not even San Francisco) in the post-season. Maybe the NFC East winner will survive a home game against Atlanta, but that’s it. So, yeah, meaningless. But you do get to call yourselves division champs. And, right now, winning the division appears to be the only sure ticket into the playoffs for NFC East teams. And to win the East, the Giants need to win this game (and then beat Dallas in week 17). They’ll do that. New Jersey by nine.
Carolina (+6) at Houston
Sooner or later, all the injuries are going to catch up with the Texans. I know I’ve said it before, and it hasn’t proven true yet, but eventually it’ll have to. Right? Only maybe not this week, when a defense that picks off a ton of balls faces a quarterback who throws a ton of picks. And not next week, when the Texans travel to No-wIndy. So let’s go with week 17 vs. Tennessee. Or the playoffs. Yeah, the playoffs; that’s it. Houston by a touchdown.
New Orleans (-7) at Minnesota
With the Falcons breathing down their necks in the NFC South and a head-to-head matchup with Atlanta just a week away, the Saints absolutely must win this game. They will. There are very few teams that can stop the Saints from scoring 30 points. And there are very few teams that have trouble scoring 30 against the Vikings. It’s not hard to see where this game is headed. New Orleans by 14.
Miami (pick ’em) at Buffalo
I know the Dolphins are a team in turmoil and everything, but the Bills just plain stink. I think the visitors find a way to come out on top in this one. Miami by a point.
Detroit (-1) at Oakland
The good news for the Raiders is that the Lions are very unlikely to humiliate them the way the Packers did. The bad news is, that’s only good news. Detroit by six.
Cleveland (+6.5) at Arizona
The Cardinals have won three in a row. Hard to believe, right? So what are we going to make of four straight? Big day for Beanie Wells against one of the worst run defenses in the league as Arizona wins by 10.
New England (-7.5) at Denver
The Broncos have a great defense, right? And the Patriots have a lousy defense. That’s the word on the street. So how come the Broncos give up two more points per game, on average, than the Pats. Could it be that both teams have average Ds? Because that’s how it looks to me. So if that’s the case, and one team has a high-powered offense directed by one of the all-time great quarterbacks while the other has a largely ineffective offense steered one of the all-time most overhyped quarterbacks, what’s the likely outcome? New England by 17.
NY Jets (+3) at Philadelphia
If the Frat Boys win out, they’re in the playoffs. They’re not winning out. They’re losing next weekend when they “host” the Giants. But they’re winning here, because the Eagles are hideously uneven and virtually incapable of winning two straight. New Jersey by four.
Baltimore (-2.5) at San Diego
The Chargers think they’re still in the playoff hunt. They’re not. And this is when it becomes official. Baltimore by six.
Pittsburgh (+2.5) at San Francisco
Neither of these playoff teams can afford a loss. For the Steelers, a single loss could mean the difference between earning a first-round bye (and perhaps home field through the AFC playoffs) as AFC North champs or spending January on the road as the conference five seed. For the 49ers, a loss likely would mean the difference between the NFC two seed and a first-round bye and the three seed and a path to the Super Bowl that would likely go through both New Orleans and Green Bay. Thing is, one of these teams has to lose. I’m looking at the fact that the Niners simply don’t turn the ball over, considering that San Francisco is at home, and looking hard at the Steelers’ serious injury issues, and figuring the 49ers come out ahead by, oh, let’s say three.
