Week Fourteen Picks
Three quarters of the way through the season and other than having figured out that the safe thing to do is pick Green Bay every week, I remain almost entirely incapable of making heads or tails of the NFL. So, you know, here’s what not to expect in week fourteen.
Tampa Bay (pick ’em) at Jacksonville
If the Jags didn’t have an atrociously ineffective offense, weren’t operating on a short week, and weren’t coming off a humiliating Monday night loss, this game wouldn’t even be close. Because, look, you simply cannot commit the ridiculous number of turnovers that the Bucs have committed this season and hope to compete in road games in the NFL. But Jacksonville’s offense is awful and the Jaguars are playing under increasingly difficult circumstances, which is why they’ll only win this game by a point, when by all rights they should be Tampa by a touchdown.
Kansas City (+9) at NY Jets
Much as Rex Ryan may enjoy talking about his team’s post-season ambitions, the simple reality is that the Frat Boys are anything but certain even to make the playoffs. New Jersey is effectively three games behind New England in the AFC East with four weeks to play (they sit two games behind the Patriots in the standings, but New England holds the tie-breaker by virtue of a season sweep over their rivals). They’ve got next to no chance at overtaking the Pats. That puts them in competition for a wild card spot. More to the point, it puts them in a group of three contenders for the six seed. The loser of the AFC North race between Pittsburgh and Baltimore, each of which currently has three losses, will wind up with one of two wild card spots, and will almost certainly be the conference five seed. That leaves 7-5 New Jersey to compete for the last playoff spot with 7-5 Cincinnati, probably 7-5 Tennessee (unless the Titans can steal the AFC South title from 9-3 Houston, in which case the Titans will be even tougher for other teams to overtake for the six seed), and either 7-5 Oakland or 7-5 Denver (whichever team fails to win the AFC West title). That needle is going to be tough to thread. It means you really can’t afford to take a loss. And New Jersey has a tough out. They “host” the Giants in week 16 and travel to Miami to close out the season. They could lose both of those games. But that’s neither here nor there for the moment, I suppose. The topic of the moment is neither the final weeks of the season nor the playoffs. It’s this game, home against a Chiefs squad that’s plagued by injuries, playing on the road for the second straight week, and 1-4 in its last five games. That ought to be a win. It ought not to fill the Frat Boys and their fans with confidence, but I have little doubt that it will. New Jersey by 13.
Houston (+3) at Cincinnati
The Texans’ continued success notwithstanding, I have to believe that Houston’s never-ending string of injuries is bound to catch up with the team at some point. Maybe it’s here, on the road against a Bengals squad that’s in a crowd of teams scrambling for the AFC’s last playoff spot and that typically plays tough against the rush. That could pose a challenge for Houston; if the Texans have to go to the air, they’re going to be vulnerable. That said, Houston’s run D has been even tougher to overcome this season than Cincinnati’s. And when you throw against the Texans, you’re throwing into a secondary that’s picked off 17 balls this season, tied with New England and Kansas City for second most in the league (behind Green Bay). I think Houston should lose this game, but I’m not entirely sure they will. So I’m gonna take the Bengals straight up, but I’m gonna look for the Texans to keep it closer than three. Cincinnati by a point.
New England (-8) at Washington
Let’s be honest: The Native Americans didn’t have much hope of keeping up with the Patriots before they lost two key components of their offense. New England by two touchdowns.
Atlanta (-2.5) at Carolina
It’s starting to look like the only three teams in the NFC that really want to be part of the playoffs are the Packers, 49ers and Saints. It’s possible the Falcons will find a way to look like they want in this weekend (or at least more like it than they did a week ago). But you know what? I don’t think so. Panthers by a field goal.
Philadelphia (+3) at Miami
Both of these 4-8 teams have managed to disappoint fans by failing to live up to expectations, but at least one of them looks like it’s still trying. The Dolphins are 4-1 in their last five games. And, sure, they’ve only beaten one arguably good team over that stretch, but they’re not facing a good team this weekend, so that qualifier doesn’t much matter. I don’t care that Michael Vick is playing; the Eagles’ are done and they’re not winning here. Dolphins by six.
New Orleans (-3.5) at Tennessee
This could (really should) be one of the week’s most exciting games. Both teams are in the post-season hunt. The Saints can conceivably clinch the NFC South title with a win and a little help from the Falcons; the Titans absolutely need a win to hold position in the race for the last AFC wild card spot (they also have an outside chance of overtaking Houston for the AFC South championship). And while the Saints on paper are the better team, the Titans have at least a few factors working in their favor. To begin with, Chris Johnson appears finally to be playing at a consistently high level. That makes the Titans much more dangerous opponents than they’ve been through most of the season. There’s also the fact that the Saints performance on the road has been spotty at best. Two of New Orleans’ three losses on the season have come in road games against weak opponents, Tampa Bay in week six and St. Louis in week eight. If I thought Tennessee had a strong enough pass D to so much as slow down Drew Brees, I’d probably take the Titans to pull off the upset. But I don’t. So I’m looking for the Saints to win it by a field goal.
Indianapolis (+16.5) at Baltimore
Gee, I wonder if the Ravens will be able to dig deep and find a way to win and keep up with Pittsburgh in the AFC North title race. It’s a poses, isn’t it? Ravens by 20.
Minnesota (+8) at Detroit
After this game, the fading Lions travel to Oakland, host San Diego and close out the season at Green Bay (where they Packers will be looking to polish off a 16-0 regular season). If they can win the home games, they’ll finish at 9-7, which will likely be enough to earn them at least the six seed, possibly the five. And I’m pretty sure the Lions are winning their remaining home games. Detroit by 10.
Chicago (+3.5) at Denver
The only advice I can give on this game is, bet the under. Chicago’s defense should be able to hold Tim “Still Not An NFL Quarterback” Tebow to next to no production. And the Chicago offense likely would have struggled against Denver’s D even if they had a healthy quarterback (by which I mean a healthy quarterback who’s a legit NFL starter), which they don’t. Broncos win 9-6.
San Francisco (-3.5) at Arizona
The Niners are in a race for the NFC two seed. The Cardinals are in a race for the offseason. San Francisco by a touchdown.
Buffalo (+7) at San Diego
I’d really love to see the Bills come out of San Diego with a win, just so I could stop hearing about how the 5-7 Chargers (5-7, folks) are still legitimate playoff contenders. Because they’re not. But the Bills aren’t winning this game, no matter what I might like, and I’m going to have to continue to hear about the Chargers until the Ravens finally put them out of my misery in week 15. So it goes. San Diego by four.
Oakland (+11) at Green Bay
Let’s face it, the Packers are headed for 16-0. And there are probably only two or three teams with any chance of coming between them and 19-0. I mean, we’ll see what happens in January and February, but for right now, Green Bay by 14.
NY Giants (+3.5) at Dallas
In which the Giants pull even with the Cowboys in the entirely meaningless NFC East title chase. New Jersey by a field goal.
St. Louis (+5.5) at Seattle
Hey, look, they’re still pretending that the NFC West teams that aren’t the 49ers have a reason to keep playing football. Isn’t that cute? Seahawks by a touchdown.
