Week Thirteen Picks
What can I tell you other than proceed with caution. Which is to say, here’s what not to expect.
Philadelphia (-3) at Seattle
Really, NFL? Really? This is what you’ve got for us on a Thursday night? I mean, OK, back when the schedule was made a lot of folks figured the Eagles would be contending for … well, for something at this point in the season. But the Seahawks? Was there really an idea that, had Philly turned out to be an actual “dream team,” Seattle would have been able to give them a game? Certainly not in my mind. Because, hey, while it might be hard to figure out why the Eagles have failed to meet expectations, I can’t say anything about the Seahawks’ 4-7 record surprises me in the least. Seattle’s offense can’t advance the ball on the ground or through the air. And their defense is middle of the pack at best. They hold onto the ball better than the Eagles, so I suppose they’ve got that going for them. But there are 28 teams in the league that hold onto the ball better than the Eagles, so it’s not much of a distinction. And, again, none of this should come as a surprise to anyone. So what was the thought here? I’m not gonna come up with an answer to that question. Another question I can’t answer definitively: Can Philly put a crushing loss that effectively ended their season behind them, travel across the country on four days rest, and find a way (or the will) to win? I think the answer is no. I think the Eagles are done, and they’ll be lucky if they manage more than one win over the final five weeks of the season. But I won’t swear by it. I suppose I’ve gotta make a pick, though, so I’ll go with Seattle and figure they win it by a field goal.
Oakland (+3) at Miami
I think Oakland is in trouble here. With the Broncos breathing down their necks in the AFC West title race, the Raiders can’t afford to drop any games, particularly not the “easy” ones (which is to say the ones against 3-8 opponents). But I’m not sure the Raiders can win this game. I mean, sure, Miami’s little three-game winning streak ended Thanksgiving day in Dallas. But only just. And, sure, the Cowboys’ drive for the game-winning field goal included a lot of DeMarco Murray. That’s certainly good news for the Raiders, who rely on their ground attack for the better part of their offense. But it remains the case that Miami’s stingy defense is stingiest against the run. You have to beat Miami through the air. And I’m not sure Carson Palmer is up to the task. Not at this point. If Palmer comes out throwing the ball well, and playing the way he did at San Diego in week 10, the Raiders will be OK. If he plays the way he did against Chicago on Sunday, Oakland’s going to struggle. And given that he’ll be traveling across the country to face a well-rested Dolphins squad, my gut says there’s a whole lot better chance that we see the iffy Palmer than the solid Palmer. Miami by one.
Atlanta (-2.5) at Houston
Man, it looked like the Texans had something going there, didn’t it? And, I don’t know, considering the state of the AFC South, maybe they still do. But, look, by and large, you don’t succeed in the NFL when you get down to your third-string quarterback. And, with all due respect to T.J. Yates, when you bring in a guy who’s been out of the league for most of a season (and who should have called it quits much sooner), it’s a pretty clear signal that the player you’ve got taking snaps isn’t a starter in waiting but just someone who’s good enough to hold a clipboard and run the practice squad. That doesn’t win division titles. It usually doesn’t even win games. Atlanta by a touchdown.
Cincinnati (+7) at Pittsburgh
Seven? As the spread? No. Sorry. I’d buy seven as the over/under in this game, but neither of these teams is outscoring the other by seven. Steelers by a point.
Kansas City (+8) at Chicago
Two teams. Half a starting quarterback. But, you know, at least the Bears play defense. Chicago by four.
Denver (pick ’em) at Minnesota
The Vikings’ run defense is better than most realize and that’s going to prove a problem for still-not-an-NFL-quarterback Tim Tebow. But only until the middle of the third quarter at which point, having been on the field all bloody afternoon (as their offense goes three and out over and over again), the Minnesota D is bound to start wearing down. Then watch for that purported Tebow magic (or the football rooting interests of Jehovah, or whatever the hell it’s supposed to be) to set in. Broncos by 10.
Tennessee (+1.5) at Buffalo
Any chance the Bills had of halting their November swoon was squandered last Sunday afternoon in New Jersey. The Titans, meanwhile, have new life in the AFC South. And, sure, that life may be largely a product of the Texans’ inability to keep a healthy QB on the field, but it’s life just the same. It should be enough to give Tennessee the edge. Titans by a field goal.
NY Jets (-3) at Washington
If the Frat Boys want fans to stop booing their hideously overrated quarterback, they might want to start playing better football. Or I suppose another option would be to play the Native Americans. You can’t help but come out of that matchup looking good. I expect the New Jersey faithful will be back to worshiping “Sanchize” and talking Super Bowl by the time this one’s over. Jersey by 13.
Indianapolis (+21) at New England
Poor, poor Dan Orlovsky. Patriots by 20. (See how I cleverly avoided predicting a team would cover a huge spread while still predicting a blowout? Pretty clever, huh? Means the Pats will actually win by 35.)
Carolina (+3) at Tampa Bay
Let’s see which quarterback can throw the fewest picks. I’m banking on Cam Newton, since he’ll likely throw the fewest passes. Panthers by a field goal.
Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
I’m guessing the Ravens will score at least seven points in this game, so I’m gonna go ahead and give the six and a half. I’m just saying. Baltimore by 14.
Dallas (-4.5) at Arizona
Please, Tony, please find a way to lose this game. Because, you know, there’s some part of me that just really enjoys the idea of the NFC East officially laying claim to the title of League’s Biggest Mess. Of course, it’s not gonna happen. Dallas by a field goal.
Green Bay (-7) at NY Giants
The last time an NFL team had a legitimate shot of running the table, it was the Giants who got in the way. Can New Jersey play spoiler once again? No. This just ain’t that Giants team. Green Bay continued to steamroll with a win by no less than 19.
St. Louis (+13.5) at San Francisco
Now that Jack Del Rio‘s been put out of football fans’ misery, ask not for whom the bell tolls next. It tolls for Steve Spagnuolo. And the fact that Spags, unlike Del Rio, doesn’t really have it coming, doesn’t mean one damned thing. Oh, yeah, and this is where the Niners clinch their first division title (and first post-season appearance) in nine years. San Francisco by 16.
Detroit (+8.5) at New Orleans
Guess who’s doing the stomping this weekend? (Hint: It won’t be Ndamukong Suh.) New Orleans by 12.
San Diego (-2.5) at Jacksonville
Hey, look. An opponent the Chargers should actually be able to beat. Only, there’s that weird thing where bad teams win the first game after their coaches get fired. So maybe not. I’m taking the home team in the upset here. Jaguars by a point.
