Week Twelve Picks
It’s the semi-annual (which is to say I can’t remember if I do it every year and I’m too damned lazy to check) “things to be thankful for” installment of my notoriously inaccurate NFL picks. Hooray. Here’s what not to expect.
Green Bay (-6.5) at Detroit
I’m thankful that I don’t have anything more than my pride at stake with these picks (and that I don’t have a whole lot of pride to begin with). Because that allows me to engage in this kind of ridiculous reasoning: Green Bay’s gonna drop a game eventually. The reason perfect seasons come along so infrequently is that it’s hard, given the level of competition in the NFL, to play well enough week in and week out over the course of a season to come out on top every week. The Packers have shown some defensive vulnerability of late. The Lions have enough offense to keep up with the Pack, and a pass rush that has at least a chance of making Aaron Rodgers look semi-mortal. And there’s almost always at least one upset on Thanksgiving. The consensus of the experts (and me) is that there’s an upset on the way in Baltimore, which means the favored Ravens will probably win. It’s not like Dallas can’t lose, but it’s hard to imagine Miami going on the road and extending their winning streak to four games. That leaves this game, a tough, division contest featuring a team that has all but sewn up the NFC one seed traveling on a short week to face a team that’s fighting to earn its first post-season berth this century (literally). Call me crazy (you’re probably right), but I’m taking the Lions to win by three.
Miami (+7) at Dallas
I’m thankful that I’m under no obligation to declare (or even decide) whether I’m less impressed by the fact that the Dolphins have stumbled into three straight wins (after having bumbled their way to seven straight losses to start the season) or that Tony Romo has actually managed to go three games in a row without finding a way to cost his team a victory. The game is the dog of the day. Dallas by 10.
San Francisco (+3) at Baltimore
I’m incredibly thankful for that fact that there’s an exciting football game to watch on Thanksgiving night. Can’t wait to sit down with a turkey sandwich and a big pile of leftover mashed potatoes and watch a battle between teams that consistently execute solid football fundamentals. Thanks, Harbaugh brothers. I’m decidedly less thankful for the fact that I need to pick a winner. I think the 49ers are the better team here. Their play on both sides of the ball is more consistent; they’re stronger in the trenches; their offense is more balanced; and their +17 is by far the best giveaway-takeaway differential in the league (the Packers clock in at second with a +12; the Ravens’ +3 is ninth best). But the game is in Baltimore, and West Coast teams typically struggle in East Coast games. Plus, it’s not like San Francisco is better than Baltimore by all that much. And let’s be honest: Baltimore plays in a much tougher division than San Francisco; the Ravens have had to work harder to earn their stats and their division lead. So what’s a fellow to do? In the end, I’m taking Niners, mostly because I believe in the power of turnovers to decide game outcomes. But as long as we get the game I think we’re going to get, I’ll be happy regardless of the outcome. San Francisco by a point.
Minnesota (+9.5) at Atlanta
I’m thankful for the fact that I don’t live in a state where elected officials appear ready to commit hundreds of millions of public dollars to keeping any sports team from moving away. More thankful indeed that my tax dollars won’t be used to underwrite a squad a bad as the Minnesota Vikings. Falcons by two touchdowns.
Tampa Bay (+3) at Tennessee
I suppose if I had to watch it (I don’t), I’d be thankful for how short this game is likely to be. Neither defense can stop the run, so I expect the ball to stay on the ground and the clock to keep running. The Titans are slightly better at keeping running backs out of their end zone. The Tennessee offense is a good bit better at holding onto the ball. And the Titans are at home. So I’m taking Tennessee straight up. It’s a push with the points.
Arizona (+3) at St. Louis
I can’t tell you how thankful I am that I’m not poor Sam Bradford trying to play quarterback behind an O line that’s down to using practice bodies to protect my blind side. That’s gotta hurt. That said, I’m sure Bradford is thankful to be facing a Cardinals team that’s playing on the road for a third straight week, and that isn’t very good to begin with. So there’s that. Rams by a point.
Carolina (-3.5) at Indianapolis
If I were a Colts fan, I suppose I’d be thankful that for the price of a miserable season, I’d probably be looking at my team drafting its next great quarterback in April. That’s gotta be worth something. Panthers by a touchdown.
Cleveland (+7.5) at Cincinnati
I’m going to guess that the Cincinnati Bengals are thankful to be catching the Cleveland Browns at the exact moment when they need to stop a two-game skid and get back on the path to the post-season. Who wouldn’t be? Ced Benson has a big day and the Bengals come out ahead by a touchdown.
Houston (-3) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars no doubt are thankful that they get to face Matt Leinart, who hasn’t thrown a pass in a regular season game since 2009, instead of the injured Matt Schaub. I’m sure they’re less thankful about Andre Johnson’s return to good health. Assuming Leinart isn’t completely unprepared (and, you know, he’s had two weeks), Houston should come out ahead, though I can’t see giving more than a point.
Buffalo (+8) at NY Jets
The Frat Boys should be thankful that the Bills are a bit farther along the road to done than they are. That feeling won’t last, but I’m sure it’ll do for this weekend. New Jersey by 10.
Washington (+4) at Seattle
Maybe the Seahawks are thankful to face a team that sucks even more than they do. I don’t know. Don’t care. Seattle by six.
Chicago (+5) at Oakland
The Raiders should be thankful for the fact that they play in the weakest division in the NFL. And for the fact that they don’t have to face the Bears at full strength. Oakland may still struggle early, but as the game wears on and the Bears D, which should be on the field quite a bit, wears down, the Raiders will break away. Oakland by a touchdown.
New England (-3) at Philadelphia
I’ll be thankful if the Patriots, who appear to have discovered a pass rush, can keep it up and finally put the “Dream Team” out of my misery. New England by 10.
Denver (+6.5) at San Diego
The Chargers, whose post-season hopes are fading fast, should be thankful to face a team without a real quarterback. San Diego by four.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Kansas City
I think we should all be thankful that we get to watch Tyler Palko lead the Chiefs against an AFC post-season contender for the second straight week. Because, you know, that Monday night game in New England was so close (I mean, it really was — until halftime). Three more picks from Palko and the Steelers win it by 17.
NY Giants (+7) at New Orleans
The Giants ought to be thankful they started 6-4, because with their remaining schedule, 9-7 is a distinct possibility. Thing is, the way it’s going, that may be enough for them to take the NFC East title. I don’t think New Jersey’s defense can slow down the New Orleans offense, or that the Giant’s unbalanced offensive attack can succeed against the Saints’ D. So unless the Giants can force a bunch of turnovers (which is a possibility), I can’t see them winning. New Orleans by a field goal.
