Week Nine Picks
Wait, how did we get to the middle of the season so quickly? And why don’t I know anything more than I knew eight weeks ago? Ugh. Here’s what not to expect in week nine.
Miami (+4) at Kansas City
There’s a perception that the Dolphins, though they always find a way to lose, manage to keep it close on the scoreboard. And that’s been true — in three of Miami’s seven games. In the other four, they’ve lost by double digits. So, you know, there’s that. Kansas City by 10.
Tampa Bay (+8) at New Orleans
I don’t know if the fact that the Saints can’t afford to lose this game really counts for all that much. I mean, it counts in the standings; I get that. The Bucs are up a game in the season series. A loss here would mean the Saints will need help to capture the NFC South title. So, yeah, that counts. What I’m saying, though, is that I’m not sure that’s enough. New Orleans ought to be able to beat Tampa Bay. They’re at home. They have an actual offense that shows up almost every week — unlike the Bucs’ occasional offense. And while the Saints don’t have much of a defense to speak of, neither do the Bucs. But the fact of the matter is, the Saints under Sean Payton have struggled against the Buccaneers. They’ve managed to lose some games to Tampa Bay even when the Bucs were a bad team. The Bucs this season may not be an elite squad, but they’re certainly not bad. My gut says the Saints will find a way to come out of this one with a win, but I’m not giving anything close to eight points. New Orleans by one.
Cleveland (+11) at Houston
Of all the Cleveland Browns in the world, this team is the Cleveland Browniest. Texans by 14.
Atlanta (-7) at Indianapolis
The Falcons have a winning record despite the fact that they’ve given up five more points than they’ve scored over their first seven games. The Colts have 0-7 record on account of having given up a league-worst 131 more points than they’ve scored. I don’t care what stadium this game’s being played in, I’m taking Atlanta, and I’d give as many as 10.
NY Jets (+1.5) at Buffalo
This is where the Frat Boys not actually being very good starts to catch up with them. Just as their inability to run the ball or stop the run hurt them a few weeks back in Foxborough, I think it kills them this weekend in Buffalo. Mark Sanchez throws three picks and the Bills win by nine.
San Francisco (-3.5) at Washington
So after three straight losses, we’re done talking about Washington as potential NFC East contenders, right? The truth of the Native Americans is that they can’t pass, can’t run, can’t score, can’t stop and run, quite possibly can’t stop the pass (the stats make it look like they can maybe stop the pass but that might just be because opponents haven’t needed to pass the ball to beat them), can’t hold onto the ball and, except for a surprising, in retrospect, week one victory over the Giants, can’t beat good opponents. The Niners, in case you hadn’t noticed, are 6-1 and about two weeks away from clinching the NFC West. San Francisco by a touchdown.
Seattle (+11.5) at Dallas
Boy, oh, boy am I glad I don’t have to watch this game. I don’t really even want to think about this game. So I won’t. I don’t think the Cowboys are good enough to outscore anyone by eleven and a half, so I’ll take Seattle to cover. But, yeah, Dallas wins (and the national media spends the next week talking about how the Cowboys look like they may be contenders in the NFC North again — even though they’re clearly not).
Cincinnati (+3) at Tennessee
Even teams that have a running offense have trouble running the ball against the Bengals. And the Titans enter that equation at a distinct disadvantage. And since one dimensionality doesn’t win football games against strong opponents (that’s right, I just used the word strong to describe the Bengals) I’m taking Cincy to pull off the upset here. Bengals by a field goal.
Denver (+8) at Oakland
The Raiders are going to be in serious trouble if they don’t get Darren McFadden (AKA the Oakand offense) back on the field soon. But not this week, because this week’s opponent sucks. Oakland by a touchdown.
NY Giants (+8.5) at New England
Eight and a half seems rather excessive to me. Because, yeah, the Patriots don’t lose at home. And, yeah, the Giants are dealing with some offensive injury issues. And, no, Eli Manning is not now, never has been and never will be an elite quarterback. All that said, the Giants have something the Patriots don’t: a pass rush. New Jersey has the ability to get to Tom Brady in spite of New England’s stout offensive line. And while I don’t think the Giants can get after the Patriots’ receivers and disrupt the rhythm of the passing game the way the Steelers did last Sunday, it seems likely that Manning’s going to have an easier afternoon than Brady. I think Brady and the New England offense will find a way to get the job done, but not to the tune of eight and a half points. Patriots by three.
St. Louis (+3.5) at Arizona
Really? I’m supposed to say something about this battle of the backup quarterbacks? I’m not sure what that could possibly be. I’ll just take the Rams to pull off the upset (pure gut) and call it a day. St. Louis by a point.
Green Bay (-5.5) at San Diego
Here’s some fairly simple reasoning: If the Chargers can’t beat good teams, and the Packers are probably the best team in the NFL, then the Chargers (that’s right) can’t beat the Packers. That wasn’t so hard, was it? Green Bay by two touchdowns.
Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh
The question I keep hearing in regard to this game is, can the Steelers DBs use the same press man approach they employed to disrupt the Patriots offense last week to disrupt the Ravens offense in this game? The answer is, sure, probably. The follow-up question I keep asking though, is, does it matter? The Ravens aren’t the Patriots. The don’t have New England’s offense. The also don’t rely on offense the way New England does. More important, the Ravens, unlike the Patriots, have an actual defense. In fact, defense is how the Ravens win. And I don’t believe for one minute that the Pittsburgh O line can stand up to the Baltimore defensive front. I don’t expect to see the kind of destruction the Ravens visited upon the Steelers back in week one, but I don expect to see Baltimore complete the season sweep and position themselves to take the NFC North title. Baltimore by six.
Chicago (+8) at Philadelphia
I’d love to be one of those people who believe that Chicago is gonna keep this one close. But I’m not. Eagles by 13.
