Week One Picks
If you’ve been here before, you know this is the part where I warn you not to put too much stock in my picks. That’s always extra true in week one, because, look, I don’t know what’s really up with any of these teams. No one does. We know what we think we’ve seen in the pre-season. We know where teams were at the end of last season and what they did (or didn’t do) to improve in the off-season (such as it was). But no one knows anything for certain until we see how it all plays out on the field. So here are some guesses, which are even guessier than my usual guesses, at what you almost certainly shouldn’t expect to see on Sunday and Monday.
Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Baltimore
As ridiculous as it may be to put an entire season on a single week one game, you kinda get the sense that the Ravens have to win this game if they’re gonna have a chance to win the NFC North title. And the thing of it is, with Lee Evans less than 100 percent and the Ravens O line a bit on the shaky side, it’s hard to know if Baltimore has the tools to get the job done. I’m gonna take the Ravens, but it’s mainly because they’re at home and they have to know how much they need this game. But there’s a reason Baltimore’s only giving a point and a half to the visiting division rivals, and I won’t be shocked if the Steelers are 1-0 and the Ravens 0-1 come Sunday evening. Baltimore by a point.
Atlanta (-2.5) at Chicago
I’m not entirely sure I understand why the Falcons are only giving two and a half here. I mean, I know the Bears D should be able to slow down the Falcons offense some, but the Chicago offense still features Jay Cutler playing behind a questionable line. And there’s only so much time any D can spend on the field before it starts to wear down. Atlanta by a touchdown.
Cincinnati (+6.5) at Cleveland
I may not be sold on the Browns, but I’m certain of this much: The Bengals stink. Cleveland by 14.
Indianapolis (+8.5) at Houston
Yeah, Kerry Collins should be able to step right in and run an offense that was built for Peyton Manning. That’s a realistic expectation. Texans by 10.
Tennessee (+2) at Jacksonville
There are high school games being played this weekend in which the schemes will look sophisticated compared to what these two squads are capable of bringing to the field at this point. Jaguars by four.
Buffalo (+5.5) at Kansas City
The Chiefs didn’t do enough to improve in the off-season. The Bills have too far to go for this lockout-shortened off-season to have made a significant difference. I think Buffalo’s losses on offense offset their gains on D. And I expect it to start to show immediately. Kansas City by a touchdown.
Philadelphia (-4) at St. Louis
I’m inclined to agree with the folks who say its going to take the reinvented Eagles some time to start functioning as a team and playing up to their talent level. Then again, I’m not sure the Rams are quite ready either. Josh McDaniels is a talented play caller, but you won’t see the evidence of that this early in the season. And the St. Louis defense may appear to be heading in the right direction, but I don’t think it was going to get there in 2011 with or without the lockout. Look for the Eagles to win this one handily (though I don’t expect a blowout) and the folks in Philly to point to the win as evidence that the Eagles are coming into the season fully formed and ready to take the league by storm. (Next Sunday night’s stop in Atlanta ought to be enough to correct that perception.) Philadelphia by six.
Detroit (+1.5) at Tampa Bay
As I mentioned earlier this week, I continue to have my doubts about Tampa Bay, particularly on defense. I am, however, sold on the Detroit D. I think the Lions will give the Bucs’ offense fits and the Detroit O will be able to accomplish enough against a questionable Tampa Bay D to come away with a close win. Lions by four.
Carolina (+6.5) at Arizona
The Panthers have a long, long way to go — and they’ve had no time this short off-season to make any real progress in getting there. Cardinals by nine.
Minnesota (+8.5) at San Diego
I like Donovan McNabb. Always have. And I hope he succeeds wildly in Minnesota. But it’s not gonna happen at this point in the season, behind an offensive line with more than it’s fair share of issues, against the Chargers’ defense. San Diego by 12.
Seattle (+5.5) at San Francisco
This game could be an early indicator of which team is gonna finish last in what might be the NFL’s weakest division. So that’s some excitement there, football fans. I suspect those forced to watch this tilt will end up wishing the lockout hadn’t ended. San Francisco by a field goal.
NY Giants (-3) at Washington
The Giants may (or may not) be falling apart, but the Native Americans are in pieces. New Jersey by a touchdown.
Dallas (+5.5) at NY Jets
Thanks so much, NFL, for forcing me to spend my opening Sunday night energy rooting for one of the league’s most overrated quarterbacks. Not that me cheering from my couch is gonna help Tony Romo or the Cowboys very much. Frat Boys by 13.
New England (-7) at Miami
Seven? Why? Because it’s gonna be hot? Let’s be realistic here, shall we? New England by 17.
Oakland (+3) at Denver
Before you go to bed, take a few minutes to admire all the talent the Oakland Raiders will be wasting this season. Then, you know, go to bed, because that’s about where the interesting aspects of this game end. Raiders by a field goal.
