This Football Blog

I start every football season by pointing out that there’s virtually no way to predict what’ll happen in the NFL in a given week, let alone across the breadth of a 17-week season (and, you know, a seeded playoff system that doesn’t even start for another four months). And then I make my silly little predictions anyway. Why? Because it’s fun for me. (And, you know, I correctly predicted the Super Bowl champion last year. Just a matter of dumb luck, of course, but I still did it.) So there.

So let’s see how wrong I can be this time around, shall we?

Regular Season Records
I’m still not engaging in the absurd exercise of predicting final records. I’ll give you a range of wins I think each team is capable of. Where I’m right, I’ll know my hedge was successful. Where I’m wrong, it’ll be the fault of injury, or the team, or something – just, you know, not me. Because how could it be me?

AFC East

New England Patriots, 12-15
The Patriots probably had no business finishing 14-2 last season, but they did, mostly because of Tom Brady and the offense. That offense may have improved in the off-season (such as it was) or it might have simply been sharpened up a bit. The reinvented defense appears to be much stronger than it was last season – though there are quality concerns at safety. Seems like a winning formula to me.

New York Jets, 7-11
The Jets made some splashy moves in the off-season, but they did it all at skill positions. New Jersey is dangerously thin on both lines. That may not hurt the defense too badly, but it could become a serious problem on offense, particularly for a team with a quarterback who’s prone to making mistakes under pressure. If wear and tear don’t become an issue, the Jets will contend for a wild card spot. If they do, the Jets will get to start planning early for the draft and a rebuilding year.

Miami Dolphins, 4-7
The Dolphins are going to have a few games this season where they look brilliant, offset by quite a few where it’s clear they’re inept. Look for them to go into the 2012 season looking very different, with a new coach and a new quarterback.

Buffalo Bills, 2-5
The Bills made some defensive improvements in the short off-season, but they failed to improve their O line. That’s bad news for Ryan Fitzpatrick – and quite possibly for Andrew Luck, too..

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens, 10-12
The Ravens offense is in flux. Joe Flacco may be coming into his own, but he’s gonna have to prove throwing to a different receiving corps than he’s had in seasons past. Fortunately for Baltimore, Flacco has Ray Rice and an outstanding defense to lean on. If he and the receivers can get more and more comfortable as the season wears on, the Ravens could go into January as the AFC’s hottest team. If not, they’ll be watching the playoffs on TV.

Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-12
Super Bowl hangover? Who knows? I honestly don’t expect to see much of that. The lockout gave everyone’s body a chance to recover, and the Steelers should be able to reap the benefits both of that down time and of the fact that they’re one of a small number of teams who were fairly complete coming out of last season, which means the short pre-season shouldn’t hurt. Pittsburgh remains thin on its offensive line, and sooner or later that’s gonna pose a serious problem. But not this season. T his season, they’ll bully their way into contention. Yet again.

Cleveland Browns, 6-8
In another division (say the AFC West) the much improved Browns might actually be a contender. In the AFC North, well, there’s only so far Colt McCoy can carry a team. The new D needs more time to come together than it got thanks to the lockout. And with bullies like Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the division, it’s going to be hard for a one-sided team to keep up. Next season.

Cincinnati Bengals, 2-5
Another contender to secure the services of Andrew Luck in 2012. Poor, poor Andrew.

AFC South

Houston Texans, 9-12
Oh, god help me, I’m picking the Texans to win the division. Because I’m just exactly as stupid as everyone else, apparently. And, yeah, it was easy to be stupid like that when Houston’s best hope was to come in second to Indianapolis. But then Peyton Manning went and didn’t heal in time for the season to start, so now picking the Texans means picking the Texans. Chances are, it’ll end in tears.

Indianapolis Colts, 4-9
It’s all about whether the reports that Peyton Manning will miss the season are true. If Manning’s out, the Colts have to rely on late off-season pickup Kerry Collins. That’s a difference between a guy who can will your team to victory and a guy who can’t even will the ball out of the hands of opposing DBs most of the time. If Manning can play at some point, it’s a matter of when, at what level, and how deep a hole Collins has dug for him before his return.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-6
Releasing David Garrard frees up some cap space for the Jags, but it doesn’t solve any problems. The Jaguars’ issues are that they have a mediocre offense and a defense that can’t get to the passer. That’s not a good combination. Maybe their next coach will be able to figure that out.

Tennessee Titans, 3-6
I knew the Titans picked the wrong off-season to quit everything. That is: New coach, new (the way a car with 100,000 miles can sometimes be “new” to me) quarterback, new systems. No time. Look for a few wins down the stretch to put a silver lining on an otherwise dismal season..

AFC West

San Diego Chargers, 11-14
The Chargers’ defense looks even scarier than usual heading into this season. Could be one of those Ds that carries a team into late January. Maybe later. Or the offense could get in the way, and a slow start could ensure that the bulk of the playoffs are spent on the road, which always spells doom for San Diego. Either way, the Chargers are winning the AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs, 8-11
I was one of a relatively small group of people who predicted the Chiefs would have a strong 2010 season. This year, I’m one of a larger group of folks who suspect the team may not have done enough to improve in the off-season. They did add some offensive firepower, however, and maybe that’s all they needed. We’ll see..

Denver Broncos, 5-8
John Fox can turn this team around fast. But no one can turn it around fast enough to compete this season. Next year, maybe. And almost certainly by 2013. But not now.

Oakland Raiders, 4-7
As usual, the Raiders added some nice talent in the off-season and lost some significant talent at the same time. The team has weapons, and (probably) a better quarterback than they’ve had in a few years. But it’s still hard to see it all coming together. I think Oakland takes a step back, maybe two.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles, 11-14
The dream team thing only holds up as long as … well, it doesn’t hold up at all. This ain’t basketball. Whatever the Eagles are – let’s just say a team with lots and lots of talent in very visible positions – it only holds up so long as Michael Vick stays healthy. That means the offensive line is gonna have to step it up, but quick. If that happens, and if Vick can avoid taking stupid risks (no evidence yet that he’s capable of that), then the Eagles could be bound for Indianapolis on February 5.

Dallas Cowboys, 7-9
The Cowboys’ defense should win a few games on its own. But, then, Tony Romo, playing behind a crumbling offensive line, should manage to lose a few as well. Which of those things happens most often will determine on which side of .500 the Cowboys finish.

New York Giants, 5-8
Too many injuries, too much turmoil, and a quarterback who thinks way too highly of himself. It’s gonna be a long season for the New Jersey Blue Jerseys.

Washington Native Americans, 2-6
Rebuilding year. That’s it.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers, 12-15
The defending champs actually managed to improve in the off-season. Not a ton, mind you, but they didn’t really need to improve at all. They looked like champions going into last season (said so right here) and they look like champions again heading into this campaign. The only things I can see derailing the Packers are injury and pure weariness.

Detroit Lions, 9-12
The Lions are for real. I’m pretty sure the last time anyone was able to say that, Barry Sanders was on the team.

Chicago Bears, 3-5
The Bears are thin on both the offensive and defensive lines. Show me the last team that succeeded going into a season with that kind of problem.

Minnesota Vikings, 2-5
At least the Vikings are out from under Brett Favre. So that’s nice, right?

NFC South

New Orleans Saints, 11-13
I’ve been back and forth on whether I think the Saints or Falcons are gonna win the NFC South. And I’m only settling on the Saints because the Falcons won the division last year – so I figure, you know, it’s probably New Orleans’ turn. I think the Saints are a better team than they were a year ago – and they might even be better than they were in 2009. That might not be enough to ensure a win in what I expect to be a season-long battle for this division, but it might.

Atlanta Falcons, 11-13
The Falcons, like the Saints, appear to be a better team than they were a season ago. I’m not convinced the defense is where it needs to be, which will likely prove to be a problem come January, but the offense has added some serious talent. And if the points are there, all the defense will need to do through much of the regular season is protect leads.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6-10
I want to believe in the Bucs. I really do. But right now I’m only halfway there. Offense. That’s the half I believe in. Defense, I’m gonna have to see for myself.

Carolina Panthers, 3-6
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Cam Newton and all that. It’s still the start of a rebuilding process for the Panthers.

NFC West

St. Louis Rams, 8-10
Either the Rams or the Cardinals are gonna win the NFC West. And lose in the first round of the playoffs. How very exciting for one of them.

Arizona Cardinals, 8-10
I’m not anti Kevin Kolb at all. In fact, given the way things shook out in Philly, I really hope Kolb works out to be a stud. Thing is, I haven’t seen any significant evidence to suggest that he will. I also haven’t seen any real evidence that the Cards can play D. If it turns out Kolb is what the Cards believe, and if Arizona somehow discovers a defense, the team should be able to win the division. If not, it’s another season of mediocrity.

San Francisco 49ers, 4-6
Everything is new in San Francisco. That’s a good start. But not in a year without an off-season.

Seattle Seahawks, 3-5
The Seahawks went and got themselves a new quarterback in the off-season. That should be good practice for the 2012 off-season, when they go looking for yet another. Andrew Luck might just be the guy.

Playoffs

Sure, why not? Because, you know, I totally predict now who’s gonna be playing well in January. Can’t everyone?

AFC
1. New England
2. San Diego
3. Houston
4. Baltimore
5. Pittsburgh
6. Kansas City

NFC
1. Green Bay
2. Philadelphia
3. New Orleans
4. St. Louis
5. Atlanta
6. Detroit

Wild Card Playoffs

AFC
Houston defeats Kansas City
Pittsburgh defeats Baltimore

NFC
New Orleans defeats Detroit
Atlanta defeats St. Louis

Divisional Playoffs

AFC
San Diego defeats Houston
New England defeats Pittsburgh

NFC
Green Bay defeats Atlanta
Philadelphia defeats New Orleans

Conference Championships

AFC
New England defeats San Diego

NFC
Philadelphia defeats Green Bay

Super Bowl XLVI
New England defeats Philadelphia, 35-17

So there you go. Exactly the way the NFL season won’t go. Now you don’t even have to watch. Lucky you.