Week Fourteen Picks
I actually managed to get everything line up ahead of the Wednesday night game this week. I wonder how much extra wrong that’ll make me. I’ll tell you this: Whenever you’ve got this many road teams giving this many points, you’re in for some surprises. Here’s what not to expect.
Indianapolis (-3) at Tennessee
When was the last time the Colts faced a must-win game in week 14? (Yeah, I could look into it and come up with an answer fairly easily, but it’s sorta beside the point.) Well, here it is. Indianapolis wouldn’t be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss here, but they sure wouldn’t help their position any – particularly in the AFC South, where the Jaguars are threatening to prove they’re for real (they’re not, and we’ll see some of why on Sunday, but the Colts can’t know that for sure on Thursday night). The Colts need to preserve their ability to pull up even with Jacksonville next week. They also need division wins, because even if they beat the Jags in their place, it’ll only make the two teams even on the season. Fortunately for the Colts, the Titans appear to have called it a season. (Which is doubly nice for Indy, since they play Tennessee twice over the next four weeks.) The Titans have lost five straight, two of them in their stadium. They’re doing next to nothing right. They’ve got respected alums criticizing their lack of effort. They appear to be in a death spiral. And, you know, maybe the opportunity to put a nail in their hated division rivals’ coffin will wake the Titans up for a week. Tennessee does pick off a good number of balls, and Peyton Manning suddenly loves throwing to DBs. But, you know, I don’t think it’ll be enough. The Titans might actually manage to keep this game close – if they can be bothered to try – but they’re not coming away with a win. Colts by a single point.
Cleveland (+1.5) at Buffalo
The Browns, as you may have heard, have had some pretty good success against the AFC East this season. They smoked the division’s (and the conference’s) best team, came up just short against New Jersey and last week won ugly in Miami. It’s likely none of that means anything as far as this game goes, but it’s interesting all the same. I still have a hard time picking a team with Jake Delhomme at quarterback, but it’s not so tough for me to pick a team with Peyton Hillis running the ball against the worst run defense in the league (the Bills allow a shameful 171 yards per game on the ground and have surrendered 14 rushing touchdowns this season). So, yeah, I’m looking for Cleveland to finish 3-1 against the AFC East. That might at least mean something to their coach. Browns by three.
Atlanta (-7) at Carolina
If the Panthers weren’t so thoroughly awful and the Falcons weren’t in a tight division race with the Saints, you might think Atlanta could be in for some kind of a letdown game here. But that’s not happening. Falcons by 13.
NY Giants (-2) at Minnesota
Let’s see if either of the quarterbacks in this game can manage to throw more balls to his own receivers than he does to opposing DBs. If one of them can pull that off, his team probably wins the game. I like Eli Manning in that contest. Giants by six.
Cincinnati (+9) at Pittsburgh
Can someone please explain to me how it is that three head coaches have lost t heir jobs this season and not one of them is Marvin Lewis? Steelers by 14.
Oakland (+4.5) at Jacksonville
Wait a second; I need to think. [So it’s bad Raiders, good Raiders, good Raiders, bad Raiders, good Raiders, bad Raiders, good Raiders, good Raiders, good raiders, bad Raiders, bad Raiders, good Raiders. So that means it’s … oh, hell, I give up.] Both of these teams like to run the ball. Jacksonville gives up fewer rushing yards per game (though virtually identical yards per carry), but has allowed 12 rushing TDs on the season to Oakland’s 9. And the Jaguars fumble a lot while the Raiders take away a lot of fumbles. I’m going with Oakland in the upset. Let’s say Raiders by three.
Green Bay (-6.5) at Detroit
In which the Packers temporarily sprout a running attack, control the tempo of the game, and come away with a respectable, if not great, win over the Lions. Green Bay by six.
Tampa Bay (-2) at Washington
Part of me wonders if maybe the Buccaneers, having just blown an opportunity to establish themselves as legit might not go into a tailspin. But another part of me thinks that if you’re the Racial Slurs and you can’t run the ball to save your life and you’re going up against a team with a stout pass D, you’re in a lot of trouble. I’m going with analysis over hunch and taking the Bucs. Let’s say by three.
St. Louis (+9.5) at New Orleans
At some level, I’m sure there’s something satisfying about being the best team in the NFC West. Might even buy you a cheap post-season appearance. But it won’t do you one damned bit of good against a team like the Saints. Not in January and not now. New Orleans by 17.
Seattle (+5) at San Francisco
Oh, goody, it’s an NFC West showdown. You know what that means, don’t you? A pair of offenses that can’t score facing off against a pair of defenses that can’t stop opponents from scoring. It’s a poser, isn’t it. I’m taking the home team because, well, because they’re at home. But I’m not giving five. Two, three maybe, but not five.
New England (-3) at Chicago
I’ll say this: If the Patriots are losing another game this season, it happens here. Short week. Long trip. Great (not good, great) pass D. This is the type of game that, if the argument that there are no elite teams in the NFL this season is correct, probably should go to the home team. I don’t think it’s happening. Lots of reasons for that, not the least of which is the fact that elite teams have started to emerge and New England is one of them. But there’s also this: Jay Cutler throws picks. And the Patriots defensive backs are ball hawks. If Chicago falls behind, as other recent Pats opponents have done, you can count on Cutler to press. And then the interception situation gets worse. I think the Pats start out a bit slower than they have in recent weeks (again, short week/long trip), but to start asserting their will late in the first half and then to take over sometime around the middle of the third quarter. New England by 10.
Miami (+5.5) at NY Jets
No, I don’t think the Monday night massacre is gonna put an end to the Frat Boys’ season. I do think New Jersey is gonna have a tough go of it in weeks 15 and 16 with consecutive road games in Pittsburgh and Chicago. But with a lot to prove (to themselves, their fans and the league) and the foundering Dolphins in town, they should take this one – even if it takes some late heroics to get it done. Frat Boys by a field goal.
Denver (-3) at Arizona
I have a sneaking suspicion that one of these teams is gonna not lose this week. I’ll take the one that actually has a starting quarterback and that has a new head coach. And, sure, I’ll give the points. Why not? Denver by four.
Kansas City (+7) at San Diego
Look, I like the Chiefs. And I suspect they’ll be able to hold on and win the AFC West title. But I didn’t like them against the angry, wounded and desperate Chargers even before they lost Matt Cassel, so I’m sure as hell not picking them now. Chargers by nine.
Philadelphia (-3) at Dallas
Nope. Sorry. I’m still not buying into the Cowboys. I don’t care what they did last week. Eagles by six.
Baltimore (-3) at Houston
After Sunday night, the Ravens can’t afford to screw around here. They need a win to stay competitive with the Steelers in their division. And they’re playing a team with one of the worst defenses in the league. So I’m going with Baltimore straight up, though I think it’s a push with the points.
