This Football Blog

Miserably tough week for picking. Good teams playing good teams. Bad teams playing bad teams. Overrated teams playing … aw, hell, you get it. Here’s what not to expect.

Detroit (+3) at Buffalo
You wanna know how much trouble the Bills are in? Consider this: Buffalo’s defense has allowed 17 passing touchdowns through eight games (all losses); in that same span, they’ve managed one interception. One. Those aren’t good numbers. And while it might be tempting to look at the fact that Buffalo has allowed fewer passing yards than 28 teams, here’s the ugly reason for that: the Bills give up 178 yards a game on the ground. Here’s another awful number: -7. That’s Buffalo’s giveaway/takeaway differential. So, go ahead and ask me if I care which team is at home. Or who’s gonna start at quarterback for Detroit. I don’t. Jahvid Best goes nuts and the Lions win by thirteen.

Minnesota (+1) at Chicago
You know what? I’m not gonna waste time getting into stats and on-field trends. Because here’s the deal. On paper, this matchup is pretty even. In reality, the Vikings are in a state of complete disarray. They’re not winning this game. They may not win a game this season. That’s just how it is. Bears by six.

Houston (+1.5) at Jacksonville
I’m thinking this game comes down to one of two factors: Either one of these teams, neither of which can hold onto the ball worth three tenths of a rotten damn, finds a way to throw the game away, or the first team to settle for three on a drive effectively loses at that very moment. What I’m saying is, I don’t expect anything resembling actual professional football level defense to be played here. Why would I? Neither Jacksonville nor Houston has managed to play D through their first eight games. What would make me expect to see them start now? I’m taking the Jags because they’re at home. But I can’t say I feel good about that pick. Or bad, frankly. I honestly just don’t care.

Tennessee (-1) at Miami
I think the Titans need to be in the conversation about best team in the AFC. Seriously. The Dolphins, not so much. And I don’t really think Chad Pennington, though I respect him, is terribly likely to change that. Tennessee by four.

Cincinnati (+8) at Indianapolis
I give Cincinnati a lot of credit. Though their season was effectively over before they ever took the field, the Bengals put up a hell of a fight against the Steelers Monday night. That’s gotta be worth something. Do I expect a similar performance six days later on the road? No. But, you know, Cincy had their moment. That’s all I’m saying. Colts by 10.

NY Jets (-3) at Cleveland
The Jets have played horribly in their last two games, getting blanked at home by Green Bay in week eight, then coming a couple of key injuries away from losing to Detroit in week nine. The Browns, in their last two games, have kicked the crap out of the Saints in New Orleans and the Patriots at home. So which team do you think I’m picking? Browns do it again. 27-10.

Carolina (+8) at Tampa Bay
If you’re a regular visitor here, you know that there occasionally are games that I outright refuse to think about. Not because I don’t want to, but because I can’t bear to. This is one of those. No insult to Tampa Bay, mind you. It’s all about Carolina. I just can’t look. Bucs by 10.

Kansas City (-1) at Denver
The fact that the Broncos can’t defend the pass shouldn’t matter all that much here. The Chiefs don’t really throw the ball. The fact that Denver can’t so much as slow down the run, on the other hand, could prove a pretty serious problem given the fact that they’re, you know, up against the best rushing offense in the NFL. The fact that the Broncos have a giveaway/takeaway differential of -4 while the Chiefs have a +6 might also prove problematic for the home team. Chiefs by a field goal.

St. Louis (+6) at San Francisco
Win-loss records notwithstanding, the Niners, on paper, are probably the better team here (though not by nearly so much as one might have imagined they would be 10 weeks ago). And they are at home and all. But I’m still not giving six points. Mostly because the win-loss records tell me I shouldn’t. San Francisco by three.

Dallas (+13.5) at NY Giants
Welcome to the short, unhappy Cowboys head coaching career of Jason Garrett. I wonder if anyone’s told Jason that his first game at the top pits his sputtering offense against arguably the best defense (and certainly the best pass rush) in the NFL. That’s gonna hurt. Giants by 17.

Seattle (+3) at Arizona
Part of me thinks even the Seahawks are probably good enough to beat the Cardinals. Another part of me that thinks even the Cardinals are probably good enough to beat the Seahawks. And then there’s another part of me still that stands back and gasps in abject horror at the thought that an Arizona win here, if it’s coupled by a St. Louis loss at San Francisco, would create a three-way tie for first place in the NFC West – with all three “division leading” squads at 4-5. And since I’m not ready to deal with the idea of that, I’m picking Seattle. Let’s say the Seahawks win it by a point. Whatever.

New England (+5) at Pittsburgh
First of all, don’t believe anyone who tells you that either of these teams needs to win this game. Neither of them does. Yeah, there are potential playoff tie-breaking implications for both. And, yeah, both teams are in tight divisional races, which always make losses tougher to take. But you know what? Either of these teams could take a loss here, recover and make a successful run into January. That’s a good thing, too, because as it turns out, it’s about 99 percent certain that one team or the other is gonna lose. Which one? Dunno. Here’s what I do know: New England is playing on the road for the second straight week (never easy) and coming off a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Cleveland Browns. Pittsburgh is playing its third consecutive prime time game (also not easy) and operating on a short week. The Steelers offensive line is increasingly thin. And Pittsburgh’s defense has had very rough fourth quarters in the last two games, surrendering 14 points, and the game, two weeks ago in Cincinnati. That might mean something, or it might not. I’m taking New England to win this thing straight up, based mostly on intangibles, including Tom Brady’s successful track record against the Steelers and tendency to bounce back strong after a tough loss. That’s not a lot to hang your hat on, but it’ll have to do for the nonce. Patriots by a point.

Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
Yeah it’s true, Donovan McNabb has a lot to prove and a lot of people to prove it to. That’s all very nice. And, as a fan, I’d love to see Donovan have a great game. But if wanting something were enough to make it happen, I’d be a billionaire owner of an NFL team, not some slob writing a picks blog virtually no one will ever read. The reality is that the Eagles are a much better team than the Racial Slurs. And that’s what makes things happen in professional football. Philly by six.