Week Seven Picks
I knew last week that I was overthinking things. Didn’t stop me from pushing ahead, of course, but it did convince me to try to take a simpler approach to looking at this week’s games. And now I’m sure that will bite me in the patoot. Here’s what not to expect.
Cleveland (+13.5) at New Orleans
Looks like Josh Cribbs is will be back on the field for the Browns. So, you know, that should help. Maybe the Saints will only win by two touchdowns.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami
You can’t expect Ben Douchelisbagger to have the kind of success against the Dolphins that he had last week against the Browns. But he really doesn’t need to. Chad Henne throws too many picks. And the Steelers DBs are very good at intercepting balls. The Pittsburgh D’s got this one. Steelers by a point.
Washington (+3) at Chicago
Neither of these teams has a reliable offense. But the home team, at least, has a semi-reliable defense (the visitors couldn’t defend a Larry Dallas pass). Bears by six.
Cincinnati (+3.5) at Atlanta
There are folks out there who think Matt Ryan is gonna pick the Bengals’ secondary apart. I’m not one of them. Cincinnati may not be a great team, but the have s solid pass defense. And they’re coming off a bye. I still like the Falcons to win, but I don’t think it’ll be by much. Let’s say two points.
Philadelphia (+3) at Tennessee
Vince Young or no Vince Young, and regardless of what the Eagles do at quarterback, the one’s a coin toss. The teams appear to me to be fairly evenly matched. And while the Titans are playing on short rest, at least they’re playing at home. I’m gonna take the Titans straight up, but I’ll look for the Eagles to keep it closer than three.
San Francisco (-3) at Carolina
We may look back on this game several months from now as the reason the Niners are picking ahead of the Panthers in the NFL draft. If either of these teams manages to hold on to the ball long enough to score, it’ll be a miracle. Still, somebody’s gotta win this thing. So I’ll figure it’s the Panthers. Let’s guess by a field goal.
St. Louis (+3) at Tampa Bay
Stephen Jackson needs just 32 yards to become the Rams all-time leading rusher. The Bucs, who give up 157 yards a game on the ground, should prove obliging. Tampa Bay still wins the game, however, probably by slightly more than three.
Buffalo (+13) at Baltimore
It would appear that the Ravens, in fact, are not the league’s best team. Still, they’re up there. And it remains a possibility that the Bills are the worst. Ray Rice should be good for at least 120 yards in this game. Baltimore by 20.
Jacksonville (+9) at Kansas City
You know you’re in trouble when you’re coming off a public beatdown in your own stadium and you’re reduced to starting a quarterback you cut three weeks ago. I don’t think the Chiefs have enough offense to beat the Jags as badly as the Titans did, but I’m pretty confident they can do a bit better than a third of the 27-point Monday night margin. So, yeah, I’m giving the points.
Arizona (+6) at Seattle
It’s possible, if not likely, that one of the four NFC West teams will actually finish the season with a winning record. And it it’s gonna happen, it’s gonna need to happen to one of these teams. So there’s that. Seahawks by a touchdown.
Oakland (+8.5) at Denver
The Raiders, it appears, will have something on the order of 70 percent of a semi-talented quarterback going for them in this game. Which I’m sure matters to someone. Like, you know, maybe Jason’s mom or something. Broncos by six.
New England (+2.5) at San Diego
Every season in the NFL there’s a team that’s held up as “better than its record.” And every season it turns out that, in fact, that team is exactly as good as its record. Just like the other 31 teams. That’s how the whole win-loss record thing works. The Patriots go to 5-1 with a second straight road victory (and all the experts talk about how this doesn’t really indicate that the Pats are a contender, because the Chargers were too banged up to compete).
Minnesota (+2.5) at Green Bay
I haven’t given up on the Packers yet. I’m getting close, but I’m not quite there. And with a Green Bay defense that’s tied for second in the league with 21 sacks facing creaky old Sexty Sextinson I’m certainly not giving up on the Pack this week. (I mean, not before the game, anyhow.) Green Bay by a field goal.
NY Giants (+3) at Dallas
As last week’s Monday night quarterback showcase grew increasingly tiresome, my mind started to wander. I mused about whether this week, the MNF audience would witness the final chapter in Wade Phillips’ coaching career. I’m not sure now if it’ll be quite the end for Wade, but I’m fairly certain he’s not gonna pull back from the brink any here. The Cowboys have a horrible O line. The Giants have a formidable pass rush. If you’re Wade (or, you know Tony Romo) that’s not something you can feel very good about. Giants by a touchdown.
