Week Five Picks
Got a weird feeling that we’ve got a weird weekend ahead. Too many games look way too straightforward and simple. And that probably means that the football gods are poised to start making some changes, or at least to take some of what’s been turned the wrong way around and set it back to right. Or maybe not. Maybe it all just plays out the way it’s supposed to in week five. Here’s my weekly look at what not to expect.
Jacksonville (pick ’em) at Buffalo
The Jags could be in for a letdown game after their rather unlikely win last week. But the Bills appear to be angling for the first overall pick in the 2011 draft, and it’s hard to believe they’re gonna lose focus on that goal. I’ll take the visitors.
Denver (+7) at Baltimore
Look, I’m a believer in stats. Not an absolute believer, though. Because every now and again, you run into a stat that illustrates the truth behind Disraeli’s line about “lies, damned lies and statistics.” Here’s one of those: Through the first four weeks of the season, Kyle Orton not only is the league’s leading passer, but is on pace to shatter records. Seriously. Orton’s thrown for 1,419 yards. That’s 54 more than Peyton Manning, who’s second on the list of passing leaders. It puts Orton on pace to throw for 5,664, 580 more than Dan Marino’s single season record. And, hey, I like Orton. But do you think this pace is gonna keep up? Of course it isn’t. And Baltimore’s defense is one of the things that will effect a correction. If Orton throws for 150 yards this week, it’ll be a small miracle. Ravens by six.
Kansas City (+7.5) at Indianapolis
Insert your own funny observation about which of these teams is the last unbeaten squad in the NFL this season here. Yes, the loss of Melvin Bullitt is going to hurt the Colts this season. This week, however, I’ve got to believe that Indy, even if its D gives up some points, will find a way to outgun Kansas City. I won’t be sad if the Chiefs pull off an upset win, but I will be surprised. Colts by 10.
Green Bay (-2.5) at Washington
Here’s the key to a Green Bay win: Not committing 18 goddamned penalties. I feel pretty confident predicting they’ll be able to pull it off. Packers by four.
St. Louis (+3) at Detroit
One of these teams is actually worse than the other. That’s a hell of an accomplishment. Lions by a point.
Chicago (-3) at Carolina
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a poorer performance by an offensive line than the one I saw from the Bears on Sunday night. Chicago’s already (temporarily) lost a quarterback thanks to that ineptitude. I can’t help but wonder what horrors await poor Todd Collins. And, look, the Panthers may not be the Ravens, but their defensive front isn’t exactly terrible. Of course, it’s not like you can expect a whole lot of production out of Carolina’s hobbled offense. And that leaves me at a loss for what to do here. I guess I’ll go with my gut sense that Sunday night may have sent the Bears into a tailspin and take my chances with the home team to pull off the upset. But that’s just here where it’s free and easy and the only think at risk is my pride (and, you know, that ain’t much). I’d never put actual money on it.
Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Cincinnati
It’s hard for me to see Tampa Bay’s defense giving up enough points for Cincinnati to cover. The Bengals are the more balanced team (which is to say that unlike the Bucs, they actually have an offense) and they’ll win. But probably by more like a field goal.
Atlanta (-3) at Cleveland
Let’s set aside the fact that the Falcons are balanced and better than the Browns on both sides of the ball. And let’s just consider this: Jake Delhomme is expected to start for Cleveland. That’s the same Jake Delhomme who in recent seasons has developed a serious knack for throwing to opposing DBs, and who threw two picks in his only start so far this season. And he’s returning to face a defense that leads the league in interceptions. Is it me, or does that have disaster written all over it? Falcons by 14.
NY Giants (+3) at Houston
This should be interesting. What’s worse, the Giants’ pass protection or the Texans’ pass defense? Overall, I think it’s too early to tell. But for the purposes of this game, I’ll say it’s the unit that has to travel. Houston straight up; it’s a push with the points.
New Orleans (-6.5) at Arizona
Like pretty much everyone else, I keep thinking the high-powered offense that carried the Saints all the way to the championship last season has to kick in at some point. But it keeps not happening. Maybe a matchup with the Cardinals’ simply awful D will change that. Saints by 10.
Tennessee (+6.5) at Dallas
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I’ll believe the Cowboys are a good team when I see it. And given Dallas’ O-line issues and Tennessee’s pas rush, I’m really not expecting to see it this weekend. Titans by a field goal.
San Diego (-6) at Oakland
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Raiders have “been in” every game except the week one blowout at the hands of the Titans. So what? They still lost to everyone but the Rams. They’ll find another way to lose this weekend. San Diego by three.
Philadelphia (+3) at San Francisco
There are two big questions in play here: Can the Eagles manage to keep a quarterback healthy over the long term? And will the Niners ever manage to live up to their pre-season potential? We can’t get an answer to the first this weekend. And I’m pretty sure we’re not gonna get an affirmative response to the second. San Francisco gives up way too many yards through the air, and way too many points, for me to believe they can be competitive. Eagles by four.
Minnesota (+4) at NY Jets
Randy Moss is “back home” just in time to help his old new team in their bid to help his new old one. I’m not sure it matters much. Not this week. Yeah, sure, depending on how much of the Vikings’ offense Moss can absorb quickly, we might get to see what the league’s best wideout can do against the Frat Boys secondary when he’s got a point or two to prove. But we might not. Because Moss is gonna need someone to get him the ball. And it doesn’t seem likely to me that Once A Jet, Always A Jet Brett (and his amazing Technicolor junk) is gonna have much opportunity to do that in the face of the New Jersey pass rush. Of course, Minnesota doesn’t have such a bad D either; and it’s that unit, not Favre and Moss, that I expect to keep this game close. I’ll take the Frat Boys straight up, sure, but I’m thinking they win by a point, three tops.
