Week One Picks
Well, the 2010 season sort of failed to start with a bang, didn’t it? And the thing is, it might be weeks yet before we know for sure whether it was a matter of both Minnesota and New Orleans having stellar defenses or (I’m leaning in this direction) the Vikings having a stout D and a fairly inept offense. I guess that’s neither here nor there for the moment, though. What matters now is that it’s time I quit stalling and got to the bad predictions. Here we go again. What not to expect:
Cleveland (+3) at Tampa Bay
Look, I’ve always liked Jake Delhomme, OK? So I hope I wrong. But I’m pretty sure he’s done. And I’m pretty sure it’s hard to succeed in the NFL when your starting quarterback is … well, done. Even when you’re playing a Bucs team that’s pointed in the right direction but has a good way to travel before they actually get anywhere. Bucs by a field goal.
Miami (-3) at Buffalo
You know what I really, really don’t enjoy? Feeling like I have to pick the road team in a divisional matchup on opening weekend. Thing is, I just can’t see the Bills D having a lot of luck stopping the Dolphins. Brandon Marshall all by himself makes the Miami passing attack tougher to shut down. That means you can’t stack the box to shut down the run. And run D hasn’t been a strong suit for the Bills in recent seasons. It all adds up to points for the Dolphins, points I can’t see the Bills finding a way to match. So I’m taking the road team in the divisional opener. And, yeah, I’m giving the points.
Cincinnati (+4.5) at New England
Three words of advice: Bet the over. Because, look, I just don’t see a lot of defense happening in this game. The Patriots during the pre-season failed to display any hint of a pass rush. That’s gonna expose their young secondary (a unit that I believe will improve dramatically as the season rolls on, but that needs to make some progress yet), especially when they’re up against the kind of receivers the Bengals are putting on the field this season. Then again, if the Patriots’ offense is the unit it appears to be on paper and in the pre-season, there aren’t many Ds that are gonna contain it all season. And Cincinnati certainly doesn’t appear to have the defensive stuff to do the job. So that’s a big day of scoring. And, ultimately, if we’re looking at a shootout, I like the squad with Tom Brady pulling the trigger. Patriots by seven.
Indianapolis (-2) at Houston
As I wrote in my season predictions post earlier in the week, I’ll buy into this year’s “Houston’s coming on” hype when I’ve got a damned good reason to. Like, you know, if I’m wrong about this game and the Texans top the Colts. But that won’t happen. Indy by nine.
Denver (+2.5) at Jacksonville
If I had my druthers, I’d find a way to pick both teams to lose. But it doesn’t work that way. So I’m splitting the difference. I’m taking the Jags straight up, and the Broncos with the points.
Atlanta (-2) at Pittsburgh
This game would be easier to pick if Ben Douchelisbagger weren’t serving a four-game suspension. In that case, I’d happily give five times the points. Still and all, I like the Falcons by a field goal.
Oakland (+6) at Tennessee
If you’re Oakland, you’ve got one option in this game: Stack the box, limit Chris Johnson‘s production, and force Vince Young to beat you through the air. The only problem is, I’m not sure the Raiders can pull it off. Tennessee by four.
Carolina (+7) at NY Giants
I keep hearing about how the Panthers manhandled the Giants in New Jersey at the end of last season. But, you know, old season, old stadium, young Carolina team. I’m going with New Jersey straight up, though I like Carolina to keep it closer than seven.
Detroit (+7) at Chicago
Eight words I almost can’t believe I’m typing: I’m taking the Lions and giving the points. (On the road, no less. In a divisional game. In Chicago. How weird is that?)
Arizona (-4) at St. Louis
The Cardinals have no quarterback. The Rams have no football team. I’ll go with Arizona. Let’s say by six.
Green Bay (-3) at Philadelphia
I won’t be surprised at all if these teams end up meeting again in January, possibly rather late in the month. That game will take place in Green Bay, partially as a result of the outcome of this one. Packers by four.
San Francisco (-3) at Seattle
Here I go again, taking a road team in a week one divisional match. And here I go again asking this question: What choice do I have?
Dallas (-4) at Washington
This time I’ll take the underdog home squad. Why? Because I just don’t believe in Tony Romo, particularly when he’s playing behind a highly suspect O line. That’s the long and short of it.
Baltimore (+2.5) at NY Jets
I’d say it’s time for Rex Ryan and his gang of idiots to put up or shut up, but I rather suspect they’ll do neither. Ravens by six.
San Diego (-4.5) at Kansas City
I think the Chiefs keep this one close. I’m looking for a fairly low-scoring affair (which, you know, will bookend the week in a way) in which the Chargers come out ahead by two or three. Let’s go with 16-13.
