Conference Championship Picks
I’ll tip my hand right now. I’m looking for the conference one seeds to meet in the Super Bowl for the first time in sixteen years. Also, I’m an idiot. So you can pretty much bet that’s not gonna happen. Here’s what not to expect.
NY Jets (+8) at Indianapolis
OK, so here’s the thing: I want — on some level, I really, really want — to scoff at the very notion that the Jets can win this game. I want to laugh at the very suggestion that this game can play out like Super Bowl III revisited. I want to point out that Weeb Ewbank is not walking through that door. Randy Beverly is not walking through that door. And the only door Joe Namath is walking through is the door to the press box. And, you know, that’s all true. But I can’t stop thinking about how much Darrelle Revis reminds me of Ty Law, and of the way Law was always Peyton Manning‘s worst nightmare. (Remember Law’s three picks of Manning in the 2003 AFC Championship?) And, you know, it’s not like Revis isn’t gonna get his opportunities; Manning is going to throw to Reggie Wayne in this game. It’s all a matter of whether Revis can make the right reads at the right moments, and I know that he’s got some advice from Ty on how to do that. That all makes me think, well, hell, maybe the Jets really do have a chance. And, man, wouldn’t it be somehow perfect to see the Colts fall to a team they let into the playoffs? But, you know, just like the 2009 Jets, who backed into the playoffs with a regular season record of 9-7, aren’t the 1968 Jets, who went 11-3 and won the AFL Eastern Division title, neither are they the 2003 Patriots, a team that had won 13 straight games by the time the Colts got to Foxborough (which also brings up the point that the Pats hosted that championship game). Revis is a phenomenal football player, but his team, while red hot, doesn’t have anything like the offense that Pats team did. It’s one thing for a defense to give you opportunities, quite another to be able to take advantage of them. And it’s hard for me to see the Jets doing quite enough with their opportunities to keep up with the Colts, who will put up points even if Manning delivers a ball or two into Revis’ hands. I think it’s the Jets weaknesses on offense that ultimately make the difference in this game. I see a low-scoring affair in which the Colts may trail late, but will ultimately come out on top. I’m thinking Indy wins by a score of something along the lines of 20-16.
Minnesota (+3.5) at New Orleans
Drew Brees isn’t winning this game. Come Monday morning, it may look very much as if he did, but that won’t be the real story of what happens here. Because if the Saints come out ahead, it’s going to be for one of two reasons. Either it’s gonna happen in the trenches — with New Orleans’ stellar offensive line holding off Minnesota’s amazing pass rush (and giving Brees the time he needs to find open receivers) — or it’s gonna happen on the other side of the ball, with Brett Favre reverting to form and finding a way to make the one or two crucial mistakes that add up to a losses in big games. And actually, I’m not sure it won’t be a little bit of both. The Vikings D linemen are going to find a way to get to Brees at least some of the time. The big question is, how much of the time? Because if it’s only a matter of sacking him once or twice and flushing him out of the pocket on a handful of plays, that’s not gonna be enough. There’s only so much you can ask of any secondary; if the Vikings aren’t chasing Brees around throughout most of the game, he’s going to put up points. And if Favre is put in a position where he feels like it’s on him to win the game, he’s gonna do just the opposite. Gregg Williams’ defense is solvable. Despite recent performance as the New Orleans D has grown healthier, I still believe the unit remains a potentially fatal weakness. The thing about solving Williams’ D, though (and this has always been the case — in Buffalo, in Washington, in Jacksonville, and New Orleans) is that it requires a patient quarterback. Favre has a bad habit of being just the opposite, particularly when he thinks he needs to pull out the heroics. Go gunslinger on this D, which logged the third highest pick total in the league during the regular season, and you stand a good chance of throwing a good bit more than the ball away. And that’s exactly what I expect to see Favre do, particularly if his team’s trailing by 10 or more as the second half wears on. I think we’ll see a game that’s competitive for three quarters, possibly a bit longer, but that ends with the Saints up by no less than 13 points.
