Week Seven Picks
It’s upset week. I can feel it in my bones. And there’s not a damned thing I can do about it. Neither can you. And what it all means is that if you’re involved in a straight-up picks pool, you’re pretty much fucked. Six or seven games this week are gonna end in huge, huge upsets. Teams that have no business winning, that come in as major underdogs are gonna walk away with victories. But there’s absolutely no telling which six or seven teams. Try to guess them and get them wrong and you could go 2-12 on the week.
If you’re in a pool with no year-end contest, go nuts. Use the Diane Chambers strategy of picking based on which city has the better symphony orchestra, ’cause who knows. If your pool has a year-end, and you have a shot at it, write the week off. Pick conservatively and let the guy from accounting who picks based on which team’s city has more Fortune 500 companies or the woman from HR who picks based on which team’s name makes her dog bark loudest take the damned week. It’s all you can do. If you’re betting, go with dogs to cover; you’ll have at least as good a chance at winning as you ever do (which is pretty much none). And no matter what, of course, don’t listen to me. I don’t know what I’m talking about.
Atlanta (+4) at Kansas City
An Atlanta win here wouldn’t be a huge upset. The Falcons have definitely come on in recent weeks. And Kansas City may or may not have found its way. I think the Chiefs will score just slightly more often than Atlanta, though, so I’m going with the Chiefs to win, but not cover, in a high-scoring game, but I wouldn’t blame you for going the other way.
Buffalo (+5.5) at Baltimore
Chester Taylor and Musa Smith will be splitting carries for the Ravens in the absence of suspended Jamal Lewis and the question has been, which guy will have the big day. Neither. The Bills know how to stop the run. Unfortunately for Buffalo, though, Baltimore’s D knows how to stop just about everything. Look for a defensive touchdown (an interception return by Baltimore) to make the difference. Take the Ravens to win and cover.
Chicago (+7) at Tampa Bay
The Bears have no quarterback. The Bucs have Joe Jurevicius healthy and ready to play for the first time in a year, and Michael “Dickface” Pittman heating up since returning from his slap-on-the-wrist suspension. And Brian Griese didn’t look as bad as one might have expected Monday night. Still, it’s a short week for the Bucs, so while they should win, it probably won’t be by a touchdown. (And if I were looking to tag those big upsets I’ve been talking about, this is one of the games I’d be looking at.)
Detroit (+6.5) at N.Y. Giants
Are the Giants as good as their record? The answer to that comes here. A yes can come in one of two ways. First, we’ll see if the Giants O line can open holes sufficient to buy Tiki Barber a 100-plus yard day. No one’s gone for 100 against the Lions’ D so far this season. If Barber can be the first, you’ll get a good indication of whether the Giants can rely on him to have big days through the season. If the Lions do shut down the run, we’ll see if Kurt Warner is able to get things done without the kind of ground support he’s had thus far this season. Warner’s been looking great, but I still have my doubts about the guy. I’ll be interested to see what happens when he has to play under real pressure. This much is for certain: The Lions aren’t gonna be able to do much against the Giants’ very impressive D. So if either Tiki or Kurt steps up, New York should be able to win and cover. I’d put my money on the Giants, giving the points, if I were stupid enough to make a bet this week.
Jacksonville (+9) at Indianapolis
The Jags have to win this one to keep any hope of contending in the AFC South alive. Unfortunately for them, they have absolutely no chance. Jacksonville couldn’t stop Indianapolis three weeks ago at home, and they’re significantly more banged up now than they were then. Combine that with the fact that this game happens on a carpet and you have Indy putting up about 500 yards of offense and four or five TDs. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has a gimp at QB and no one who can catch the ball even when he delivers it to them. Take the Colts and give the points.
Philadelphia (-7) at Cleveland
Pretty soon, Antonio Bryant, whom the Browns acquired in a trade with Dallas this week, is gonna make his presence felt, and help Jeff Garcia prove Terrell Owens wrong. Probably not this week, though. Bryant’s an amazingly talented wide receiver, but he’s not someone who’s gonna find his way in a new system in a matter of a few days. It’s too bad, too. It’d be nice to see Garcia and the Browns shove one down T.O.’s big, stupid, homophobic mouth. And with Jerome McDougle out, this would be the week to do it. But probably not. The Eagles should win it, though I think the Browns do manage to keep it closer than a touchdown.
San Diego (+3) at Carolina
Here’s an upset in the making. Not a huge one, to be sure, but an upset nonetheless. Carolina’s in the midst of a major post-Super Bowl collapse. And San Diego’s been coming on like crazy over the last few weeks. The Chargers win this one by a touchdown.
St. Louis (-6) at Miami
There isn’t an upset week anywhere with powerful enough mojo to lift the pitiful Dolphins over the Rams. There just isn’t. Don’t look for a high score here, maybe 27 points total, but most of those (all but three or seven) will be put up by the Rams.
Tennessee (+6.5) at Minnesota
Randy Moss may not play, which means Daunte Culpepper may only throw for three touchdowns this week. That’s at least one more than Steve McNair will manage. Take the Vikes and give the points.
N.Y. Jets (+6) at New England
It’d be nice to believe that this game couldn’t possibly produce one of the big upsets I’m predicting. You can’t not beat the Jets and all. And, really, there should be nothing for Pats fans to worry about. The Jets are 5-0, yeah, but they’ve beaten all of nobody. Their only opponent so far this season that doesn’t have a losing record is San Diego, which is 3-3 and wasn’t as good as they are now when they lost to New York. So the Pats should cruise and complete the week’s New England over New York sweep. But the Jets always play the Pats tough. Curtis Martin is having a monster season. And the Pats, while they appear to be getting better, have struggled against the run so far. New England finds ways to win games, though. Plus, they’re at home, and they know this is a crucial division matchup (don’t forget, it was a loss to the Jets that kept the Pats from winning the AFC East in 2002). So take the Pats straight up, but expect the Jets to keep it closer than six.
Dallas (+3.5) at Green Bay
This game almost has to end in an upset. Yeah, the Pack looked like they found themselves again last week. And, yeah, it’s hard to figure they’ll keep losing at Lambeau. And, now, the Cowboys aren’t all that great. But the Boys are better than the Pack this season, and, well, that’s gonna have to be enough. Take the Cowboys to win it straight up.
New Orleans (+3) at Oakland
I’m a Raiders fan and I can’t figure out how the Raiders are favored in this game. The way Oakland’s been playing, coupled with the fact that Deuce McCallister appears to be back in good health spells upset here. Not a major upset, but an upset nonetheless. I wish I could pick it different.
Seattle (-7) at Arizona
Here’s another game I’d look at if I were inclined to try to ID those shocking upsets ahead of time. Sometimes when a team starts strong, then goes into a slide, the way Seattle has, they keep sliding for three or four games. Plus Arizona’s fresh off a bye and Dennis Green says he’s got a few tricks up his sleeve. And the loss of Grant Wistrom should be pretty tough on the Seahawks D. But I’m not looking to tag those big upsets, so I’m taking the Seahawks straight up (but the Cards to cover).
Denver (-6) at Cincinnati
My grandmother will be starting at running back for the Broncos this week. She’s 88 years old and care barely walk. I think she’ll put up about 150 yards behind some of the most incredible run blocking you’ve ever seen. And by Tuesday morning, she’ll have been picked up in every fantasy league in America. Give Gram your support. Take the Broncos and give the points.
