Wild Card Picks
I’m gonna be wrong on at least one and possibly all four of these games. Straight up, I mean. (Against How do I know? Because at least one and sometimes three road teams usually win on wild card weekend. I’m picking one. And for all I know, I’m destined to be wrong about that one, which would set me up to finish somewhere between 3-1 and 0-4. So, yeah, my expectations are high. Here’s what not to expect.
NY Jets (+2.5) at Cincinnati
Having backed into the playoffs, the Jets travel to Cincinnati for what looks on paper like a week seventeen rematch, but in reality is the first honest-to-Vince football game New Jersey will have played since week fifteen, when they lost at home to Atlanta. So what happens when the Jets face the real Bengals? Well, it’s a safe bet that neither team’s gonna have a ton of success running the ball in a game featuring two of the league’s better run Ds. That means someone’s gonna have to achieve some kind of yardage through the air. That’s not an easy task against these Ds either, but I’ll take my chances with Carson Palmer before I put my faith in Mark Sanchez, particularly given that Sanchez threw 20 picks this season to Palmer’s 13. I’m looking for a close Bengals win in a low-scoring game. Let’s go with Cincinnati, 13-9.
Philadelphia (+4) at Dallas
After last weekend’s fiasco, I’m officially off the Eagles bandwagon. Which is how you know Philly’s winning this one. (Or, anyway, it’s how I know. Because whenever I believe in the Eagles, they suck and whenever I lose faith in them, they turn unstoppable again.) It’s not that I don’t think the Eagles can win this game. Of course they can. Get into the damned backfield and pressure the league’s most overrated quarterback and you’ve got a chance to win, no matter how hot the Cowboys may have been over the last month of the regular season. The trouble is, I’ve seen no evidence of late that the Eagles pass rush can pressure anyone. That killed them last week. And while I expect this game to be closer (because Donovan McNabb is not gonna have that bad an outing two weeks in a row), I think it ultimately kills them again. Dallas wins this one by three.
Baltimore (+2.5) at New England
Does New England’s fate in this game really depend on Julian Edelman? Somehow I don’t think so. I mean, we’re almost certain to learn a few things about Edelman here. And if the Ravens’ defensive game plan is to roll coverage to Randy Moss all afternoon, Edelman’s at least gonna have a chance to have an impact. And there’s next to no reason to think he can’t rise to the occasion. Look, the kid caught eight balls for 98 yards in his first-ever NFL start (and his first start anywhere as a receiver) back in week two. Last weekend, coming in after Wes Welker went down, he logged 10 catches for 103 yards. And in between he had a chance to actually adapt to the position and study behind Welker. So it’s not unreasonable to think Edelman can be a factor for the Patriots, not only in this game, but going forward (if the Pats get a chance to go forward) in the playoffs and again in the 2010 regular season. But we all know that the guy who ultimately has to be the real factor right now is the same guy who’s been in that role since 2001. The Pats have got their running game into shape over the last month. And their defense is better than advertised. So if Brady can do his thing and spread the ball around to all of his receivers, his tight ends, and Kevin Faulk, the Patriots should be able to hold off the uneven Ravens and win a trip to, ulp, San Diego. New England, 23-16.
Green Bay (+1) at Arizona
Last weekend, when Arizona had something to play for and Green Bay didn’t, the results looked like this. I don’t see any reason to expect things to go too terribly differently when both teams have something on the line. Green Bay wins this one by no less than 10.
