Week Thirteen Picks (post-Thursday night)
All-in-all this week presents some of the most lopsided contests of the season. In a typical year, I might think that pointed to an upset week. But this isn’t a typical year. The gap between the haves and have-nots is just way too wide. Of course, since I’m usually wrong about pretty much everything, that probably means … ah, forget it. Here’s what not to expect.
St. Louis (+9) at Chicago
You can probably add to the growing list of reasons it makes sense for Jimmy Clausen to come out a year early the fact that he stands a very good chance of going to the Rams, which beats the living crap out of heading into a draft knowing your headed for Oakland or Detroit. What does that have to do with this game? Little to nothing, which matches exactly what I can come up with to say about a matchup like this one. St. Louis covers, because the Bears aren’t beating anyone by 10 points right now, but Chicago wins it straight up.
New England (-5) at Miami
Look, I’d be lying if I said I don’t think there are a lot of reasons to believe the Dolphins can win this game. And almost none of them have to do with the uncharacteristically terrible performance the Patriots turned in Monday night in New Orleans. There’s the fact that the Patriots are playing their second consecutive road game, which is never an easy win in the NFL. That’s compounded by the Pats playing on six days rest, also a factor that consistently trips teams up. Add in that divisional matches are usually tough and the fact that the Dolphins have their backs against the wall (lose this and they’re done in the division and in need of a good bit of help if they’re gonna capture a wild card spot). All of that points to the possibility of an upset. What points more convincingly in the other direction, however, is that the Patriots simply don’t play badly in back-to-back games. That and the prospect of a Miami pass defense that allows nearly 13 points per completion facing an angry Tom Brady. Oh, also a giveaway/takeaway swing of 15 in New England’s favor (Pats are plus-12, Dolphins minus-3). I think the Dolphins will play hard and make it a game into the third quarter, but in the end the Patriots win and cover.
Philadelphia (-5.5) at Atlanta
Michael Vick returns to Atlanta and blah, blah, blah. It’s Philly’s defense that makes the difference here. Eagles by a field goal.
New Orleans (-9.5) at Washington
Would I be shocked if New Orleans were to run into a letdown game this week? Hell, no. The Saints are bound to drop one at some point. And the Native Americans are easy to look past and better (you know, on defense) than they’re record lets on. So, sure, it could happen. But I’m not picking it. Not today. Not ever. Saints by 13.
Tennessee (+6.5) at Indianapolis
Yes, the Colts eventually are gonna drop one, too. And, yes, the Titans, who come in hot, are as likely a candidate to be on the other side of that as any team in the league. But, no, I’m not picking that either. I’m just not. Indy by three.
Oakland (+13.5) at Pittsburgh
Thinking about the internal turmoil the Steelers are dealing with, I briefly started looking for reasons to justify picking the Raiders in this game. Seriously. I did. Which is more of an indication of what a complete pudding my brain is at the moment than anything else. Of course, reality does manage to push its way through here and there. And reality says that while there’s no giving most of two touchdowns with the 2009 Steelers, there’s also no picking the Raiders to win straight up. So Pittsburgh wins, Oakland covers. And that’s that.
Denver (-4.5) at Kansas City
With the Chargers a game out ahead of them for the division title and trips to Indianapolis and Philadelphia coming up, the Broncos need to win games like this one to stay in line for a post-season berth. Given that the Chiefs come in ranked 29th in the league on both offense and defense, one wouldn’t think that would be a terribly tough row to hoe. Denver by a touchdown.
Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Carolina
It’s hard to know whose future is looking less bright at the moment, Jake Delhomme‘s or the team that gave him a bit extension this past off-season and owes him $13 million regardless of whether he ever completes another pass. Not that any of it matters this week, given that Delhomme’s not playing and there’s hardly any chance that any team loses to Tampa Bay. Carolina by four.
Houston (pick ’em) at Jacksonville
I’ve got no insight to offer on this game. Really. There are plenty of reasons to believe that each team can win. And I could run through them. Or I could point out that whichever of these squads I pick to win is going to lose. Because that’s how it’s been all damned season long with both of them. In the end, I kinda think the Texans will pull this one out, which is why I’m taking the Jaguars. How’s that for reasoning.
Detroit (+13) at Cincinnati
After this, the Bengals go on a two-game road trip that starts in Minnesota and wraps up in San Diego. Flip that around and Cincy has a chance to come out of it 1-1. But you can’t, so that’s likely a pair of losses. That means the Bengals have to win here to preserve their lead over Baltimore and Pittsburgh and their chances to take the division with victories over Kansas City and the New Jersey Jets in weeks 16 and 17. They’ll get step one right. Bengals by 17.
San Diego (-12.5) at Cleveland
Who loses to the Browns? Chargers by 14.
Dallas (-1.5) at NY Giants
Not a lot of wiggle room here for the Giants. I mean, sure, you can lose this one and still pretend you have a shot at a wild card spot, but the reality is that the ship is foundering and unlikely to recover with yet another gaping hole in the hull. There’s reason for hope, I suppose, for Giants fans and Cowboys haters alike. I mean, virtually all of the stats favor New Jersey. But the momentum favors Dallas, as does the injury situation. And I can’t shake the feeling that the Giants’ season ends this weekend.
San Francisco (pick ’em) at Seattle
You know what’s gonna happen, don’t you? One of these teams is gonna win this game. Of course, since I can’t begin to care which, I’m just gonna take the one that appears to be going in the right direction (even though it actually isn’t, because it always appears to be going in the right direction but never really is): San Francisco. By four.
Minnesota (-3) at Arizona
Pair a Cardinals’ loss here with a Niners win in Seattle and you’ll have some San Francisco fans believing their team can win the NFC West. For exactly a week. Minnesota by 10.
Baltimore (+3) at Green Bay
Wow. An interesting matchup on Monday night for a second consecutive week. Who’d have imagined it? Of course, there’s part of me that figures there must be another blowout in the offing. But then there’s another part of me that realizes that both of these teams trade on defense. I’m going with Packers, both because they’re at home and because their plus-17 giveaway/takeaway differential is the best in the league. Seems like sound enough reasoning to me.
