Week Six Picks
It’s all starting to make sense to me. Or so I think. Five weeks by the boards. The stats start to even out (that is self-correct for oddball performances and overstrong/overweak matchups). And I start to feel like I know what’s going on in the NFL. That’s about as dangerous as it gets. Here’s a bunch of stuff that I shouldn’t be nearly so shocked as I will be to see not come to pass:
Houston (+4.5) at Cincinnati
Do we get the Texans D that gave up 197 yards to Chris Johnson in week two or the one that’s hemmed in the (ahem) Raiders and Cardinals the last two weeks? I’m gonna go out on a limb and guess Houston is about to get a lesson in the differences between Ced Benson and Beanie Wells. Bengals by a touchdown.
Detroit (+13) at Green Bay
Let me take a second or two to think about whether I have anything approaching a meaningful insight on this game to offer. Ummmmmm … nope. I’ve got nothing. I think I’ll just take the Packers and give the points.
St. Louis (+10) at Jacksonville
You know, until it became clear that the Lions were actually gonna pull it off last season, I was fairly confident that no NFL team would ever go 0-16. This season, I think there are two teams that can duplicate the achievement. The Rams are one of them. Jacksonville by 13.
Baltimore (+2.5) at Minnesota
The Ravens need a win badly to stop their two-game slide; and they’re gonna need their defense to get them there. Specifically, they’re gonna need their vaunted run D to bounce back quickly from a week five matchup that saw Ced Benson put up 120 yards (and a touchdown) against them. If the Ravens can somehow figure out a way to limit Adrian Peterson‘s output, they might be able to force Brett Favre into making the two or three bad decisions that can kill you when you face a team like Baltimore. If they can’t, they’re dead. Because while you might be able to outgun some teams with run-oriented offenses, that’s not something you can hope to do when your offense is squaring off against Minnesota’s D, particularly not in the Vikings’ stadium. The Ravens may be up to the task (and if they’re not, I can’t tell you who is). But I’m not willing to count on it. Not after last week. Vikings by a point.
NY Giants (+3.5) at New Orleans
The good news for me is, this is the only week all season when I have to pick against at least one of these teams. The bad news is, I’ve got a pretty good feeling I’m gonna get screwed either way on this one. I’ve looked this game over, under and sideways interminably and I’m drawing blank. These teams are so evenly matched it’s scary. And what I usually do in a situation like this is look at giveaway/takeaway differential, but that’s no help here either. The Saints are at plus-seven; the Giants are at plus-six. That leaves me with the fallback: When all else is equal, you take the home team. Saints by a field goal.
Cleveland (+14) at Pittsburgh
For the record, you’re not gonna win a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers if your starting quarterback can’t manage to do better than 2 of 17 for 23 yards. Just, you know, in case anyone was unsure on that point. Steelers go out front by about 30, lose focus in the second half and still end up covering, if just barely.
Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
The Panthers main problem this season has been their inability to hold on to the ball. That shouldn’t pose much of a problem against a team that wouldn’t know what to do with the damned thing if you handed it to them a foot and a half away from your goal line. Carolina by 10.
Kansas City (+6.5) at Washington
I’d love to take the Chiefs here. And, hell, Washington’s bad enough that I could probably find some way to rationalize picking against the Native Americans despite the fact that the rebuilding Chiefs clearly have a lot of work to do. But the thing is, the Chiefs clearly have a lot of work to do. So I’ll take Washington, though there’s no way in hell I’m giving six and half.
Philadelphia (-14) at Oakland
Really, Greg? Ya think? Eagles minus however many points I have to give.
Arizona (+2.5) at Seattle
This is kinda like New Jersey-New Orleans in reverse. On this one, the good news for me is that while both of these teams will screw me this week just like they’ve done every week this season, it’ll only cost me once. So there’s that. Look, the part of me that says “the Cardinals were in the stinkin’ Super Bowl, like eight months ago” figures Arizona has to be better than Seattle. So does the part of me that has absolutely no use or faith in the Seahawks. But then the part of me that looks at the stats and the trends says Seattle’s been a marginally better team. On both sides of the ball. Seattle can’t stop the run worth a damn. But Arizona can’t run worth half a damn. Plus the Seahawks are at home. So what can I do? Seattle by a field goal.
Tennessee (+9) at New England
Two observations about this game, neither of them earth shattering. One: Things ain’t getting any easier for the Titans, who clearly are in for a very long season. Two: The thing about last week that’s been lost in all the “what’s wrong with New England” chatter is that the Broncos are simply a better team than a lot of people still give them credit for being. The only thing wrong with the Patriots is that they haven’t hit their stride yet, which makes it hard to beat good teams on the road. Two gimmes leading into the week eight bye should help them tune it up and get ready for the second half of the season. Patriots by 14.
Buffalo (+9.5) at NY Jets
It’s as simple as this: If you can’t manage more than three points at home against Cleveland, you’re not gonna go into the Meadowlands and compete with the Jets. That’s it. That’s all I’ve got to say. New Jersey wins and covers.
Chicago (+3.5) at Atlanta
The Falcons can’t stop the run. The Bears can’t stop the pass. That adds up an early night (i.e. a fast game). It also adds up to the home team winning, no matter where this game is played. That’s Atlanta, so it’s the Falcons. Let’s say by four.
Denver (+4) at San Diego
I may have mentioned this somewhere before, but just in case: It’s my opinion that the Broncos are a better team than a lot of people still give them credit for being. (And, look, that went for me, too, a week ago. Because while I’ve been saying this team was better than people realized since the off-season, I admit I didn’t know how much better.) Also, the Chargers are a much worse team than many observers have yet realized. Thence the absurd backward spread on this game. Broncos by six.
