Week Five Picks
Too many big spreads. Too many home teams getting points. That’s what I see this week. And I don’t like any of it one little bit. Even if it doesn’t turn out to be upset week, which could happen, I’m thinking a handful of these games are guaranteed to bite someone on the ass. That someone might as well be me. Here’s what not to expect.
Cincinnati (+8.5) at Baltimore
Yeah, I’m not giving eight and a half points here. Partly because close games are Cincinnati’s thing this season (the average margin of victory in Bengals games has been four and a half points). It’s also because I think Cincy is a better team, particularly on defense, than they’re getting credit for being. The Bengals don’t have great stats, but they do have an ability to bring pressure on D. That ultimately won’t be enough to stop Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense, but it should be enough to make the Bengals competitive until very close to the end of yet another game. I’m taking Baltimore straight up (because I’m not a complete idiot), but I like Cincy to keep the difference to more like three or four.
Cleveland (+6) at Buffalo
I’ve got this weird feeling that Cleveland is gonna manage to win this game. I’m not picking it that way, because it’s just an odd hunch. And it’s mostly based on the dread that I might have to endure a week of media speculation that the Braylon Edwards trade< might somehow amount to "addition by subtraction" for the Browns. That ain't the kind of thing I'm ever gonna base a pick on, though. So while I do like Cleveland to keep it closer than six, I'm taking the home team straight up.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Detroit
The Lions couldn’t have won this game with Matt Stafford under center. For once, the Steelers not only build an early lead, but hold it. Pittsburgh by 14 anyway, and very likely more.
Washington (+4) at Carolina
OK, I’ll admit that I’m one of those nutjobs still holding on to the belief that the Panthers somehow have to be better than their 0-3 start. But even if I weren’t, I’d still probably pick them to win here, because there’s nothing remotely nutty about believing the Native Americans are was worse than their 2-2 record. Carolina straight up; Washington with the points.
Dallas (-8) at Kansas City
A second straight road game for the Cowboys, who will be without two key offensive contributors. Perhaps worse still for Dallas, Tony Romo will still be taking the snaps. Although I’m picking the Cowboys straight up over the still-rebuilding Chiefs, I’m not giving eight points. And I won’t be shocked (surprised, yes; shocked, no) if there’s an outright upset.
Tampa Bay (+15) at Philadelphia
The Eagles are getting some key players back on the field with this game. That’s nice. But it’s mostly nice in a long-term sense. It’s immaterial here. Because this game isn’t going to be won by skill players. It’s gonna be won in the trenches. And when it comes to line play, on both sides of the ball, Philly is so vastly superior to Tampa Bay it’s kind of a joke. I’m taking the Eagles and, while I’d never give this much with actual money on the line, giving the stinkin’ 15.
Minnesota (-10) at St. Louis
The Rams don’t have the league’s worst run defense, but it’s pretty far down on the list. And when you’re giving up 135 yards per game and 4.1 per carry and you’re preparing for a visit from Adrian Peterson, you’re not looking at a good day. I’m taking the Vikings and giving the points.
Oakland (+15.5) at NY Giants
I swear, if I have to read or hear one more goddamned word about how much talent the Raiders have, I’m gonna puke. OK, so there are some talented players in Oakland. Great. There’s also one gigantic bust of a first overall draft pick lining up under center. You can’t win in the NFL when you’ve got that much invested in a guy who clearly has no interest in behaving like a professional. It only gets worse when the one player you might actually hope could carry your offense isn’t gonna be on the field. So while I still believe the ever-worsening injury situation in New Jersey is gonna become a serious problem sooner or later, it won’t be this week. Giants by 17.
Atlanta (+2.5) at San Francisco
I still don’t believe in San Francisco. But the stats, which have started to paint a picture, tell me the Niners are slightly better than the Falcons on both sides of the ball. And I know, even without the stats, that Atlanta still can’t stop the run. Add in a slightly better giveaway/takeaway differential and home field advantage and you’ve got yourself a San Francisco win. I’m gonna guess by about three.
Houston (+5.5) at Arizona
I’ll be honest: I started to think about this game only to discover that I really, really didn’t want to. I got far enough to realize I’m not sure that either offense is particularly well suited to exploit the weaknesses in the other team’s defense. And to wonder if an Arizona offense that’s had trouble protecting the ball can reasonably be expected to win, even at home, by more than a field goal. So I’m taking Arizona to win, Houston to cover. But that’s not really based on anything other than what I think I know (which is worth exactly nothing).
New England (-3.5) at Denver
I don’t have anything to say about the coaching matchup. It’s been done to death. So I’ll just focus on the teams. And I’ll start by pointing out that I’ve been impressed enough with Denver thus far this season to conclude that the Broncos are gonna win the AFC West. But they’re gonna do it with a record of 10-6 or 11-5, not 14-2. That’s my way of saying the Broncos are due to lose a game or two. Also, the Denver D is never going to be able to sustain the ridiculously low points-allowed average of 6.5 per game it’s posted so far this season. That’s not about Denver; it’s about the law of averages. As for the Patriots, well, it seemed like the offense was starting to click for real last week. I expect it to click some more here. And I expect the Pats to bring the Broncos back down to eart in the process. As long as New England can hold onto the ball (Denver has an impressive giveaway takeaway differential of 7, that vs. New England’s +2), the Patriots should be able to put this game away by the end of the third quarter. Patriots by a touchdown.
Jacksonville (-1) at Seattle
On one hand, I’m not buying the notion that wins over eternally inept Houston and mysteriously struggling (but struggling just the same) Tennessee somehow add up to Jacksonville being a better team than they appeared to be through the first two weeks of the season. On the other, I’m not buying anything the Seahawks are selling. I’ll take the Jaguars and give the point.
Indianapolis (-3.5) at Tennessee
If Tennessee slips to 0-5 while Indianapolis reaches 5-0, the Titans become the first team to officially start looking forward to 2010. Good luck with the off-season, Tennessee. Indy by a touchdown.
NY Jets (-1.5) at Miami
Sure, Miami can win this game. As long as Chad Henne can hold up under intense pressure. Something tells me new addition Braylon Edwards won’t be the only New Jersey player to punch someone in the face this week. Jets by four.
