Week Four Picks
Look at this. Picks on a Friday, even. That doesn’t make them any more accurate, mind you. Just earlier. Do I get points for that? Here’s what not to expect:
Detroit (+10) at Chicago
Boy, it was awfully nice that Washington managed to be bad enough for Detroit to break its 19-game losing streak last weekend. I wonder how long the losing streak that starts here will last. Bears by a touchdown.
Seattle (+10.5) at Indianapolis
The Seahawks are getting a bit healthier. So that’s good news for Seattle fans, I suppose. Unfortunately, it’s about the extent of the good news they’re likely to get this week. Colts by at least 13.
Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville
Sooner or later, the Titans are gonna win a game. But if it isn’t here, it might not be until mid-November. I suspect it’ll be here. Tennessee by a field goal.
NY Giants (-8.5) at Kansas City
I’m not comfortable with the spread on this game. New Jersey’s gonna win. There’s little question about that. But the Giants, who remain banged up, opened with a pair of tough divisional battles then got the gift of a cakewalk home game against one of the weakest teams in the league. I just sort of wonder if they might not come out flat in this non-conference, throwaway game. The Chiefs, hungry though they may be, don’t have the guns to pull off this big an upset, even in their home stadium. But they may catch the Giants napping early, build up a lead and only lose by four to seven points.
Tampa Bay (+7) at Washington
In week three, Washington managed to answer the seemingly unanswerable question, “How can anyone lose to Detroit?” Perhaps this week they’ll figure out how to lose to Tampa Bay. I rather doubt it, considering that the Bucs can neither score nor stop opponents from scoring (not a good combination). Still, considering the fact that Washington’s offense has demonstrated an inability to locate the end zone (four touchdowns in three games), I’m not giving seven to any opponent, no matter how bad. Native Americans by three.
Baltimore (+2) at New England
There’s very little reason to believe New England will win this game. OK, yeah, the Patriots are at home. There’s that. And New England’s defense has been better than advertised, despite having suffered somekey injuries. That’s another thing. Plus, the best quarterback in football (when he’s 100 percent) appears to be shaking off the rust, which, you know, is pretty great for the Patriots. Thing is, though, the Ravens have been playing better football than that Pats thus far this season. They’re executing exceptionally well in every area except pass defense (and even then, they’re no worse than middle of the pack). They score on the ground. They score through the air. They hold onto the ball. And they stop the run better than any other team in the league. Normally, you’d expect the Patriots to find a way to exploit the Ravens’ one weakness. But that’s a tough thing to do when neither your QB nor your receiving corps is fully healthy. So, ultimately, you have to like the Ravens in this game. But it remains the case that it’s always safer to pick with New England (especially at home) than against them. So I’m taking the Patriots. To win by a point. At the last second.
Oakland (+9) at Houston
I still have no idea what to make of the Texans this season. Fortunately, I know exactly what to make of the Raiders. Houston by a margin that will be more than three but less than nine.
Cincinnati (-5.5) at Cleveland
The Browns are gonna start Derek Anderson. OK, sure. That should solve pretty much all of their problems. I’m taking the Bengals and giving the points.
Buffalo (-2) at Miami
Yeah, you know what? I don’t care who starts under center for Miami. Don’t care if much of the Dolphins offense is based on a single gimmick, either. The Bills are too injured and in too much trouble to win a division game on the road. So they won’t. Miami by a field goal.
NY Jets (+7) at New Orleans
No one’s gonna think any less of the Jets if they get torched by the Saints. That’s good news for the Jets. New Orleans by 10.
Dallas (-3) at Denver
OK so let me make sure I understand how this works. Mr. Stupid Interception heads out on a short week to face a defense that has picked off five balls in three games (and that gives up a league-best five points a game), at a time when the running game that has sustained his team is has been seriously hobbled, and somehow his squad is favored to beat the 3-0 home squad. Is that right? Does that sound right? Because it doesn’t to me. Denver by four.
St. Louis (+9.5) at San Francisco
The exciting news for the 49ers is that they’re in first place in their division. The sobering news is that their division is still the NFC West. The long-term upside to that is that the Niners are probably headed for the playoffs (the first round of the playoffs, that is). The short-term upside is that they get games like this one that they can pretty much record as a win going into the weekend. I’m taking San Francisco and giving the points.
San Diego (+6.5) at Pittsburgh
Injuries have rendered both of these teams not as good as they ought to be, and significantly less good than their fans’ believe them to be. But, at least in the short term, the Steelers are in less trouble than the Chargers. Pittsburgh is playing better defense than San Diego. They’re stopping the run well. If the Steelers can manage to hold on to the ball on offense (something they haven’t been doing this season), they should be able to handle the recovering, but still fairly banged-up Chargers. Pittsburgh straight up; San Diego with the points.
Green Bay (+3.5) at Minnesota
Man, you know, nothing against the Vikings, who have been playing great football and have been fun to watch), but I would love, love, love to see the Packers win this game. And if they had any hope of slowing down Adrian Peterson, they might have been able to pull it off. Green Bay’s defense is tied with the New Orleans D for the league lead in interceptions (at seven each). And no one knows better than the Packers just how prone to picks the Vikings’ starting quarterback can be. But even Brett Favre can’t throw the ball away if he isn’t throwing the ball. And he hasn’t been throwing the ball much thanks to the fact his team features the best running back in the league. That formula has worked well for the Vikes so far this season. And with a Green Bay run D that’s been less than stellar so far coming into their stadium, Minnesota can fairly safely count on more of the same this weekend. I’ll take the Vikings and give the points.
