Week One Picks, Part Two
Here we go. Fifteen more picks you can count on to be anywhere from somewhat off the mark to just dead wrong. You heard it here first.
Jacksonville (+7) at Indianapolis
There may be more questions surrounding the Colts heading into this season than there have been in several years (notably the one about whether the team can continue to achieve at a high level in the post Dungy era), but none of them is “Can they beat the Jags at home?” Jacksonville is fielding a very young team this season. And while I suspect there may be many things for Jaguars fans to feel optimistic about by the time the season wraps up, there’s almost no cause for optimism as they head to face a tough, experienced, elite division foe in an opening weekend matchup. Colts by 13.
Detroit (+13) at New Orleans
Hey, it might be fun to watch the Saints offense do its thing. And it could be interesting to see what the New Orleans D can do with its starting ends on the field, which it appears won’t be the case a week from now. (Though it’s hard to imagine we’ll get much of a read on whether even an intact Saints D is for real based on how it performs against the Lions, led by a rookie quarterback.) Other than that, unless you’re a fan of one of the teams, there’s not a whole lot of reason to care about this game, let alone plan to watch it. Me, I’ll wait for the highlights. I’m taking the Saints and giving the points.
Philadelphia (+1) at Carolina
Let’s assume that the oddsmakers are correct and this is a relatively even matchup. If that’s the case (and I’m not sure it is, even on the Panthers’ home field), then the difference should come from line play. That’s not insight; it’s axiom. Well, I’m not entirely sure what to expect when Philadelphia’s on offense, because I’ve yet to see how the Eagles O line and the Carolina D line hold up in the face of some key injuries. I’m gonna call it a wash because I don’t know what else to do. When the ball’s moving the other way, I’m expecting the Eagles D line to outperform the Panthers O line. So that’s Philly winning the war in the trenches. And that’s Philly winning the game. Let’s say by three.
Dallas (-6) at Tampa Bay
If the Bucs can’t even pretend to care about fielding a competitive team, how can anyone even pretend to think they have a chance against a solid opponent? Cowboys by at least a touchdown.
NY Jets (+5) at Houston
There are folks out there who think the Texans are going to be a very good team this season. Of course, it seems like there are folks out there who think that every season. In the past, I’ve sometimes been one of them. Now, I’m done until I see something. And edging out a Jets team that’s in no way ready for the regular season to start isn’t what I have in mind. Texans by a field goal.
Kansas City (+13) at Baltimore
Not even if Matt Cassel were 100 percent, which he isn’t. I’ll take the Chiefs with the points, but only because you can only pick so many double-digit favorites in a given week. The Ravens own this game straight up.
Denver (+4) at Cincinnati
I’m not sold on the whole Cincinnati as a sleeper thing that’s going around. I mean, look, the weapons are there, but the weapons are always there with this team. It’s just a matter of how they get used. By the end of the season, I suspect it’ll be the Broncos who have emerged as the real sleeper. But here, on opening weekend, with Kyle Orton still nursing a banged up finger on his throwing hand, I’ve gotta take the Bengals. And, you know what, I’ll even give the points.
Minnesota (-4) at Cleveland
This is the lock of the week. I don’t care where this game’s being played, with Adrian Peterson and the Vikings’ D to reckon with, the Browns will be lucky to keep it within 14, let alone four.
Miami (+4) at Atlanta
I don’t expect either of these teams to be as good this season as it was last. But I do expect Atlanta to get off to a somewhat strong start. That will include an opening week win at home, though I don’t think it’ll be by quite four points.
Washington (+6.5) at NY Giants
I’m sorely tempted to take Washington here. Not because I think the Native Americans are the better team. Far from it. It’s just that I’ve grown accustomed to seeing Washington do well early and fall apart late. Plus, the Giants still haven’t developed consistent, reliable targets for Eli Manning. I’m sure they will soon enough, but I’d really feel better about their chances in a fierce division rivalry game if they’d done it already. Still, I’m taking New York, though I think the Giants will win it by more like four than six and a half.
San Francisco (+6.5) at Arizona
Oh, look, it’s an NFC West game. Yup. Sure is. Exciting stuff, huh? Arizona by seven.
St. Louis (-8.5) at Seattle
Oh, look, it’s another NFC West game. What a way to usher in a football season. Seattle by some margin that may or may not exceed eight and a half. (What? Oh. Really? I have to? OK, whatever. Seattle by nine.)
Chicago (+4.5) at Green Bay
I’m psyched that this game is happening on Sunday night. Because after Philadelphia-Carolina, this is by far the day’s most exciting matchup. I’m excited to see what the Bears can accomplish with Jay Cutler under center. And I’m very interested to see to what degree Aaron Rodgers can expose a highly suspect Bears pass D. I’ll take the Pack, give the points, and bet the over.
Buffalo (+10.5) at New England
There are reasons for Patriots fans to worry about the team’s very young defense slipping up in costly ways once or twice during the season. But not on an opening Monday night in Foxborough against a Buffalo squad with few options on offense and a group of offensive linemen whom you’d have to tip if they hailed you a cab. And certainly not with Tom Brady and Randy Moss doing their reunion thing on the other side of the ball. Pats by 20.
San Diego (-9.5) at Oakland
The Chargers have won the last 11 meetings between these two teams. Is there any reason to believe they won’t have made it a bakers dozen before this season is out? San Diego by a touchdown.
