This Football Blog

A lot of people look at this weekend of football and see part one of an exciting final two weeks of the season. And, OK, they’re right. Truth be told, I see that, too, and I’m very excited about it. But you know what else I see? I see a lot of road teams giving a lot of points. I’m not excited about that at all. Because, look, I’m not picking teams like the Rams or the Raiders regardless of where they’re playing, but I’d be lying through my teeth if I were to say I feel even slightly comfortable taking the 49ers or the Texans. Hell, I’d be lying if I said I felt great about picking the Dolphins, the Eagles or the Jets. I just have a feeling it’s gonna be a weekend filled with bizarre results. Of course, if that’s what I’m thinking, you can pretty much count on everything happening exactly as the oddsmakers have called it. Here are some more details on what not to expect.

Arizona (+8) at New England
This one’s a bit simpler than Baltimore-Dallas. It goes like this: The Cardinals are traveling three time zones east to play a game at what, to Arizona players’ bodies, will be 10 a.m. The Cardinals are the NFC four seed and the NFC four seed they shall remain regardless of the outcome of this game. Accordingly, they’re resting a key offensive player (which tells us lot about their desire to win this game). And they’re going to be playing in what is expected to be awful weather. The Patriots, meanwhile, absolutely must win this game to keep their playoffs hopes alive. They’re banged up, but they’re resting nobody. And they’re playing on their field, at their time and in their element. It’s not at all hard to see where this is going. New England by 10.

Cincinnati (+3) at Cleveland
Here’s what I can tell you about this game: I won’t be watching it, I won’t be thinking about it, and I might not even read the scores when they pop up on my TV screen. How about that? Oh, also, the 4-10 home team is marginally less awful than that 2-11-1 visitors, so I’m gonna take the Browns to win. By three. Why? Because somebody else thinks that’s what they’ll do and that’s good enough for me.

Miami (-4) at Kansas City
Here’s one of the games where I’d pick the upset if I felt like there were really something to my bit above about too many road teams giving too many points this week. I mean, I think there is something to that, but the something is that it makes me uncomfortable, which has nothing to do with how this game will be played. I do like the Chiefs to make it a contest, but that’s mostly because pretty much everybody has been making games with Miami a contest. The Fins may well win the AFC East championship, but it won’t be because they played circles around opponents. If it happens, it will be because Miami plays just well enough to win most of the time. You can’t knock that. And you can’t expect anything less this week as the Dolphins face a Chiefs team that can’t seem to stop anything on defense (their D is ranked dead last in the league and that, as I hardly need to tell you, ain’t good) and that can’t get out of its own way on offense (Kansas City’s offensive unit is only the seventh worst in the league — suck on that, D — but that doesn’t get you far). I’m taking the Dolphins straight up, the Chiefs with the points.

New Orleans (-7) at Detroit
This is it for the Lions. A week from now, they travel to Green Bay to face an angry Packers team. So they either find a way to come out on top while hosting the Saints, who are out of the playoff mix and have nothing real to play for, or they pretty much guarantee themselves the NFL’s first ever 0-16 finish. Yeah, 0-16 it is, then. Saints by 14.

Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Tennessee
This should have been the game in which we found out if the Titans are for real. Because if they are, you’d have figured they’d be able to hold off the Steelers. Pittsburgh is, after all playing its second consecutive road game against a team with a defense almost as good as its own. And the first of those games was nothing short of brutal. Moreover, Titans D, has been slightly better than the Baltimore D in terms of average points allowed. And on the other side of the ball, the Titans do a good job of taking pressure off their quarterback with a solid ground game. That’s the only way you beat Pittsburgh when you don’t have an elite player lining up under center. The problem, however, is that Titans come into this game without two rather key elements of their defense, and that has to hurt. Those absences hurt Tennessee against both the run and the pass. And in a game in which a minor difference can have a major effect on the outcome, my sense is that the loss of Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch is going to mean a loss in the game for the Titans. I’m still expecting a hard-fought battle, but I suspect what we’ll see in the end is another close win in a big game for Pittsburgh. This time, the Steelers grab home field through the playoffs, which may be a ticket to Tampa February 1. Pittsburgh by three.

San Diego (+3) at Tampa Bay
OK, I’m going to ask this question one more time: Can someone please, please, please beat the Chargers and end their goddamned season already? Because I have no confidence in the Broncos’ ability to do it. Yeah, you’re right, the Buccaneers don’t lose at home. And they’re playing for a spot in the post-season. That’s good enough for me. Tampa by four.

San Francisco (-5.5) at St. LouisNot exactly the game of the week, is it? These two teams are among the three worst in the league in giveaway/takeaway differential. The Niners come in at a league worst -14; the Rams at a third-worst -11. So, you know, whichever team manages to hold onto the ball for a complete drive should be able to win this one by a touchdown. I’ll go with the … ah, let’s make it the 49ers.

Atlanta (+3) at Minnesota
Minnesota needs a win to clinch the NFC North title. Atlanta needs a win to move a full game ahead of Dallas in the chase for one of the conference’s wild card slots. Both teams are gonna do their best to avoid having to throw the ball here. The difference will come in the fact that the Vikings stop the run on D as well as they run the ball on offense. That puts Minnesota in the playoffs as the conference three seed and puts Atlanta back in the crowd with Dallas and quite possibly Philadelphia and Chicago all vying for the final wild card slot in week seventeen. Vikings by six.

Buffalo (+7) at Denver
The Bills could probably win this game if only they hadn’t forgot how to win round about the end of September. Broncos by four, with the winning score quite possibly coming on the last play of the game.

Houston (-7.5) at Oakland
The Raiders need to win this game. Not to prove anything. Just to try to keep themselves out of the top five in the 2009 draft. Because this team really can’t afford another high draft pick, and they seem to be constitutionally unable to trade down. Stay in school, Michael Crabtree. Texans by nine.

NY Jets (-4.5) at Seattle
Yes, the Seahawks can win this game. The Jets have played poorly for the past three weeks. They only beat Buffalo at home last weekend because the Bills are magnetically drawn to losing. Their defensive secondary is a joke. And their quarterback not only looks old and tired by actually admits he’s lost his mojo. And the Seahawks, who have been improving of late (if only slightly) will be looking for a win in their coaches’ final home game. So, hell yeah, the Seahawks can win. And I hope they do. It’s just that I’ll believe it when I see it. Jets by three.

Philadelphia (-5) at Washington
The Eagles need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Redskins don’t need anything, because their season has ended. I’m going with the team that needs it most. That’s Philly. By seven.

Carolina (+3) at NY Giants
Sunday afternoon features a battle for home field in the AFC. Sunday night gets a battle for home field in the NFC. Really, could we ask for better football than this in week sixteen? I like the Panthers. I like them a lot. Think they might be headed for the Super Bowl. But if they have to knock off the Giants in the Meadowlands to get there, it’s gonna have to happen January 18, because I just don’t see New Jersey dropping three in a row. Giants by a field goal.

Green Bay (+4.5) at Chicago
I’m not sure what happened to the Packers, but I do know it doesn’t matter at this point. Chicago has something to play for. Green Bay doesn’t. Chicago wins by seven.