This Football Blog

I’m having a hell of a time finishing up my picks this week. Holidays. Snow. G4 running OS 10.3 in an 10.5 world. All that stuff. I’m gonna try to finish up the week while I watch the game tonight. Meanwhile, here’s what you shouldn’t expect to see in Dallas.

Baltimore (+4.5) at Dallas
What a beauty of a Saturday night game. Seriously. Two good teams trying to play their way into the post-season. The winner comes out with a good chance of landing a wild card spot. The loser comes away needing help to extend its season into January. There’s no point puzzling over which team needs the win more, because neither can afford a loss. So the question is whether you like the balanced and resurgent Cowboys or the defensive powerhouse Ravens. I don’t know what my answer is. Truly. A few weeks ago, I would have told you with certainty that Cowboys wouldn’t succeed here because their offense couldn’t hope to accomplish anything against a Ravens D that, in an average game, surrenders only 78 yards on the ground, 180 yards through the air and a scant 15 points. And the thing is, I still believe the Cowboys will struggle to score. Problem is, I also like the Cowboys D to hold off the Ravens O. The Dallas defense isn’t as stifling as the Baltimore D, but it’s pretty good and it has the advantage of not being up against a particularly potent offensive unit. Eventually, one of these offenses is going to have to break through enough to make the difference in the game, but it’s hard to know whether to believe that breakthrough will come from the home team with the better offense or the road team facing the less accomplished D, the team looking to build on a big, emotional win or the team looking to rally following a heartbreaking loss. Honestly, I won’t know until I see it unfold on the field (which is one of the reasons I find this game so exciting). What I will tell you is this: My sense is that the game comes down to whether Tony Romo can avoid throwing picks. Romo has a bad habit of throwing the ball away. And the Ravens, who have 22 picks on the season, are a team that will make you pay dearly if you put the football up for grabs. If Romo holds on, so should the Cowboys. If he gives the ball away, he gives the game away. Because it’s the safe out, I’m gonna take the home team straight up and the visitors with the points. But, really, it’s a coin toss and I have no way of guessing which side will land up.