This Football Blog

Well, this week’s off to a good start. Straight up, anyhow. I knew the Bears were Only don’t count on that continuing. These games are tough and, honestly, I’m mostly just making it up as I go along. Here’s all the stuff I’m destined to be wrong about this time around.

Tampa Bay (+3) at Atlanta
Tell me whether Jeff Garcia’s playing and I’ll tell you which team wins this game. As I see it, it’s really that simple. Yeah, the Falcons are at home and they’re playing to maintain a shot at a wild card spot, but the Bucs are looking to play their way into the post-season, too (a win here would all but assure Tampa of a slot). And the fact of the matter is that as well as Atlanta has played thus far this season, the Bucs are a much better team than the Falcons. Or at least they are with Garcia under center. It’s true that Tampa’s defense has had trouble stopping the run. That killed them Monday night in Charlotte and it could very well hurt them again as they face yet another of the league’s best rushing offenses. Unlike Carolina, however, I don’t see Atlanta overcoming a two-turnover deficit; and I think they’re likely to end up with one. The Falcons don’t give the ball up much generally, but nearly every team commits turnovers against Tampa’s D. And if you give Garcia extra opportunities, he usually finds a way to beat you. So as I see if, if Garcia’s in the game, the Bucs should come out ahead. If he’s not, they probably won’t. I’m assuming he’ll play, so I’m taking Tampa Bay to win it outright.

Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Baltimore
Oh, man, this should be a fun game to watch. Brutal, but fun. These teams are battling for the AFC North title. They feature the two best defenses in the league. And as you may have heard, they don’t really seem to like each other. I honestly can’t begin to guess which team is gonna come out ahead, except that I’ll likely be whichever one sees more of it’s starters survive. Since the Ravens are at home, I’ll take them to win by the same margin by which they lost in Pittsburgh in week four (three points). And since I really don’t care which team wins, I’ll predict with near certainty that I’m going to have a blast watching this one.

Denver (+7.5) at Carolina
The Broncos take another step toward becoming the least relevant team in the AFC playoff picture. (It’s quite possible the Broncos will win the AFC West title at 9-7 or even 8-8 — possibly while one or even two 11-5 AFC East teams sit out the post-season. I’ve got no gripes with the playoff system, mind you. But it does make for some less-than-ideal matchups from time to time, doesn’t it?) Panthers by six.

Washington (-7) at Cincinnati
Sure, I’ll give the touchdown. What the hell, make it two. The only thing I won’t give to this game (or any game involving the 2008 Bungles) is another second of my time and attention.

Tennessee (-3) at Houston
Three? Seriously? That’s the line on this game. Titans by three? Because the Texans do what well, now? Tennessee by 10.

Detroit (+17.5) at Indianapolis
Yeesh, gents, 0-16 is really starting to look like a probability, isn’t it? From here, the Lions go home to face the Saints then finish the season in Green Bay. Do you think they can win either of those games? The Colts, meanwhile, look to me like the most dangerous team in the AFC. If I had to pick an AFC Super Bowl team today, it would probably be Indy. The worst part of this is that it brings up the very real possibility of a Manning bowl. And while I respect the talent of both Peyton and Eli — I said I respect their talent, not that like them or respect them as people — the mere thought that I might have to spend two weeks looking at and listening to their absolutely insufferable father is already starting to ruin my 2009. (If Colts-Giants comes to pass and someone out there could just cast some kind of sleeping spell on Archie for those two weeks, I’d be gigantically obliged.) Indy by … I don’t know … 28, maybe?

Green Bay (-2) at Jacksonville
Look, it’s the shoulda-coulda-woulda bowl. This game might have mattered if both (or either) of the teams in it had played two thirds as well as everyone expected them to. But they didn’t, so we get a close matchup of two squads that won’t have anything exciting to report until late April. Since the Packers are arguably the less disappointing team, I’ll take them. Green Bay by a field goal.

San Diego (-5) at Kansas City
You know what truly hurts about this game? The fact that the Chargers are gonna win. Which means that they’ll be 6-8 and, thanks to the Broncos’ inability to wrap up the damned division, still in the playoffs hunt. For God’s sake, can someone please put this team out of my misery? San Diego by a touchdown.

San Francisco (+6.5) at Miami
Another West Coast team travels three time zones just to get its clock cleaned. Dolphins by nine.

Buffalo (+7.5) at NY Jets
I’ve been trying all week to come up with a reason to believe that my sense that the Bills can compete in this game is anything but a hunch colored by my extreme distaste for the New Jersey Jets. I haven’t succeeded. The Bills score a late touchdown to make it look closer than it really is, but the Jets still win by six.

Seattle (-3) at St. Louis
One of these squads will have increased its win total by 50 percent by the time this game’s over. Unless there’s a tie. So that’s pretty exciting, right? Seattle by three.

Minnesota (+3) at Arizona
The Vikings will be able to field a full defense for this game. Lot of good it’s gonna do them. Having a great run D just doesn’t help all that much when you face an offense that does most of it’s moving and scoring through the air. Arizona’s solid run defense, on the other hand, should probably come very much in handy against a Minnesota offense that pretty much only succeeds on the ground. Cards by six.

New England (-7) at Oakland
The Raiders offense, the second worst in the league, averages less than 14 points a game. And that average has been trending downward. The Patriots could put their entire D on injured reserve Sunday morning and it would be late in the fourth quarter before the Raiders’ offense figured out there wasn’t anyone on the other side of the field. And they’d still fail to score. New England by 14.

NY Giants (+3) at Dallas
So T.O. is being T.O. and, consequently, the Cowboys are in complete disarray. There’s a shock. I mean, who ever could have seen this coming? (Hands down Donovan and Jeff, it was a rhetorical question.) Is that reason to believe the Cowboys will lose a home game when they absolutely have to win to keep their wild card hopes alive? No. But you know what is? The fact that the Cowboys simply can’t hold on to the ball. OK, and the fact that the Giants (recent distractions notwithstanding) are probably twice as good a team as the ‘Boys. So, you know, New Jersey wins by a touchdown and clinches a first-round bye.

Cleveland (+14) at Philadelphia
I guess I’ll be wrapping up my holiday baking Monday night. Thanks, NFL. Sorry Romeo. Eagles by 17.