This Football Blog

Yeah, I was right on about the Raiders keeping it close on Thursday night because the Chargers are so inept, wasn’t I? And yet here you are looking for more bad advice. Have you ever stopped and asked yourself what’s wrong with you? Seriously. Have you? Because you should. Here’s what not to expect in the other 15 games this week.

Jacksonville (+7) at Chicago
Is there a reason I should care, after what I had to endure from these teams on Sunday and Monday nights, about what happens in this game or how it turns out? Neither of these teams matters. And I can’t bear to think of either of them for one second more. So I’m taking the home team to win it by exactly the seven points they’re giving. Because that’s the easiest thing to do and the quickest way out of this.

Minnesota (-9.5) at Detroit
I think the Lions’ best hope of winning a game this season sailed out the window of the U.S. District Courthouse in St. Paul Friday afternoon. Detroit isn’t good enough to beat Minnesota, but a Vikings team in disarray might well have given this one away. Now, not so much. Minnesota by 17.

Houston (+6) at Green Bay
Good news, Texans fans. Starting this week, Matt Schaub will be the guy throwing all the picks again. Doesn’t that sound like fun? Packers by seven.

Cincinnati (+14) at Indianapolis
You know, I’ve got a weird feeling the Bengals are gonna pull off a huge upset this week. I mean, the Colts have had some trouble winning at home this season, and … OK, I’m just kidding. Indy by three TDs, minimum.

Atlanta (+3.5) at New Orleans
Never mind the suspension case hoopla; it doesn’t matter whether the Saints have all their players on the field. Because here’s the deal: Atlanta is fighting to keep its playoff hopes alive (as long as the Falcons keep winning, they’re in as the six seed; a loss and they’ll need Dallas to drop one) while New Orleans is straight up cooked. Add that the Saints are slightly worse at holding on to the ball (they’ve got a giveaway/takeaway differential of -5 as compared to the Falcons’ -1) and that it’s highly unlikely the Saints D will be able to contain the Falcons’ ground game and you’re looking at a three-point victory for the visitors.

Philadelphia (+7) at NY Giants
In which the Giants wrap up the NFC East and get most of the way to a first-round playoff bye (which they’ll probably get by way of a Dallas loss to Pittsburgh). New Jersey still has a long road ahead of it. It ain’t easy to repeat in the NFL. But it ain’t hard right now to beat the bejesus out of Philadelphia. Giants by lucky 13.

Cleveland (+14) at Tennessee
You know how sometimes it can be hard to get your energy up for something that’s way too easy and you end up actually struggling a bit to complete the task? That’s the only reason I’d hesitate to give two touchdowns here. The Titans are winning (and clinching the AFC South and moving to within one win of clinching a first-round bye) and they should do it by something on the order of 28 points. But it could be more like 10. I’m just not sure. I’ll go with the Titans to win and cover for the purposes of the blog, but I’m not putting money on that.

Miami (+1) vs. Buffalo (Rogers Centre, Toronto)
Ah, yes, American football in a city where they can’t even spell the word center correctly. Get used to it. It’s hard to believe, but the Dolphins are simply the better team here. (Please don’t mistake this for me jumping on the Miami bandwagon. I don’t think the team’s that good. It’s just that the Fins are better than the Bills is all.) The Dolphins do virtually everything better than the Bills, but they’re particularly superior in bringing pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That’s part of the reason Miami comes in a with a giveaway/takeaway differential of +10 (tied with the Giants for second best in the league) while Buffalo comes in with a -5. I don’t know if turnovers will make the difference in this game, but I suspect they’ll tell a good part of the story. Miami by a touchdown.

Kansas City (+9.5) at Denver
Do you realize that there are still people out there speculating that the AFC West title could come down to the week 17 matchup between Denver (currently 7-5) and San Diego (currently 5-8)? If you meet one of these people, walk away slowly. These are crazy, potentially dangerous people. The Chiefs may be improving (or they might not be) but the Broncos still win this game by seven.

New England (-4.5) at Seattle
So it’s a battle every week for the Patriots to keep their playoff hopes alive. What else is new? It’s that kind of season. The hopes live on for another week. New England by 10.

NY Jets (-3.5) at San Francisco
You know what team can’t hold on to the damned ball? The 49ers. They’ve turned the ball over a league-high 28 times: 14 picks and 14 lost fumbles (which I guess at least shows a little balance). You can’t win NFL games when you play like that. Jets by nine.

St. Louis (+13.5) at Arizona
Once again, a solidly average team is headed for an NFC West title. What a shock. Arizona wraps up the division (at 8-5) with a win over the horrible, horrible Rams. The difference is 10 points.

Dallas (+3) at Pittsburgh
A loss here puts Dallas in a very difficult position with regard to the playoffs. Pity, isn’t it? Because Dallas’ chances of winning this game are anything but good. Yeah, the Cowboys’ sack-happy pass rush ought to be able to put Ben Roethlisberger on his back a good bit, but, hell, everybody does that and it hasn’t lost the Steelers many games. There’s a reason for that: Pittsburgh doesn’t need much out of Big Ben. They win with D. And I don’t see any reason to believe they won’t do just that again this week. Pittsburgh 20-17.

Washington (+5.5) at Baltimore
When your deal is that you’re kinda hoping you’re a running back who’s seriously banged up and lucky if he can make it through part of practice once a week is gonna tough it out enough to save your season, you’re pretty much finished. Baltimore by four.

Tampa Bay (+3) at Carolina
Tampa could effectively wrap up the NFC South title with a win in this game. The Bucs destroyed the Panthers with a strong defensive effort in Raymond James Stadium back in week six, so a second win would give them a two-game lead in the division with three weeks to play. The question is can they do it? And, you know, much as my gut tells me they can, my head just isn’t so sure. These teams are fairly evenly matched. Both are playing better football than they were last time they met. And while I think the Bucs are a marginally better team, the Panthers not only are at home but arguably need the win more. So all I can say with relative certainty is that this should be a fun game to watch. As for which team comes out ahead, I’m gonna go with my gut this time, but I’m not doing it with anything approaching confidence. Tampa by three.