Week Thirteen Picks
I don’t feel good about my picks this week. I know I say that pretty much every week. But this week I really, really, really mean it. I mean, think about it. I’m picking way early. With the exception of maybe five or six, this week’s games would be very tough to figure even if I had a few more days. And, honestly, there are more than a couple of games this week that I can’t begin to get excited about. So … you know, I warned you. Here’s what not to expect. Happy Thanksgiving.
Tennessee (-11) at Detroit
I’ve got these two guiding philosophies: One says pick the Titans every week and I’ll be right way more often than wrong. The other says pick against the Lions every week and I’ll be right way more often than wrong (and maybe I’ll be right every week). So you figure out what I’m gonna do here. Tennessee by 21.
Seattle (+13) at Dallas
One more cupcake game for the Cowboys before they have to start playing actual professional football teams (at least in weeks fourteen through sixteen; we’ll see what happens with their week seventeen opponent, the Eagles). I’d predict that Cowboys fans will be talking Super Bowl by the time this game ends, but Cowboys fans are always talking Super Bowl, so what’s the difference? Dallas by 14.
Arizona (+3) at Philadelphia
Three important facts about the Eagles, none of which have anything to do their starting quarterback: One) They’re done. Their season is over. They can start getting ready for the draft (or thinking about a coaching change, or whatever). Two) They’re increasingly banged up. Three) They probably couldn’t keep up with Arizona even if they were healthy and in the hunt. Cardinals by four.
San Francisco (+7) at Buffalo
Impressive as putting up 54 points may be, thumping Kansas City (and allowing 31 points to the Chiefs in the process) does not constitute a turnaround. Neither does following that performance up with a thrashing of the 49ers. But if you’re a Bills fan, I’m sure it’ll at least be fun to watch. Buffalo by 10.
Baltimore (-7) at Cincinnati
The Bengals’ big talk about how they can probably tie just about any team in the league (I’m making this up; they never said that) died an early death at the hands of a semi-competent opponent. Here comes more of the same. Baltimore wins by the same margin as Pittsburgh: 17. Because why not?
Indianapolis (-4.5) at Cleveland
Indy’s schedule for the three weeks after this includes a visit to Cincinnati, a home game against Detroit and a Thursday nighter in Jacksonville. That’s the Colts at 11-4 heading into their closer with Titans. Nice schedule if you can get it. Colts by a touchdown.
Carolina (+3) at Green Bay
I’m not sure which was the more embarrassing week twelve meltdown, Carolina’s or Green Bay, but having watched both unfold, I can say that Green Bay’s felt more disastrous. I don’t know how you recover from a thing like that. Carolina by a point.
Denver (+7.5) at NY Jets
Do you know why the Jets beat the Titans last week? It’s not because the Jets are a better team than the Titans. They’re not. (Despite Cris Collinsworth’s ridiculous pronouncement that New Jersey is the best team in the AFC.) The Jets won that game because they Titans had bought into their own press. Going in 10-0, the Titans had begun to feel like they had a chance to run the table. They spent the week asking why no one in the press was talking about their “pursuit of perfection.” And it bit them on the ass, the way believing the hype about your team so often does. It’ll be interesting to see if New Jersey falls victim to the same syndrome this weekend. It wouldn’t surprise me, that’s for certain. Not only are the Jets not as good as their recent press would have you believe, but they have a pass defense that is beyond vulnerable. That’s not a good quality when you’re facing one of the better pass offenses in the league. Denver throws for nearly 100 more yards per game than Tennessee (and 40 more than New England, a team that managed 400-plus passing yards in a narrow loss to New Jersey two weeks ago). The Broncos also have nearly twice as many passing TDs on the season as the Titans, and almost half again as many as the Patriots. If the Jets are focused, the Broncos will keep this one closer than seven and a half. If the Jets aren’t focused, the Broncos will win it outright. It’s really too early in the week for me to know which it’ll be, but based on what I’ve seen so far this week, I’m thinking Denver takes this one straight up.
Miami (-8) at St. Louis
I picked up Davone Bess for my fantasy team this week after it started to look like Greg Camarillo might be lost for the year (which he is). I figure if Plaxico Burress can’t go again, I’ll start Bess this week since the Fins are up against a Rams team with an absolutely miserable pass defense. So why am I telling you about my fantasy team? Because otherwise, I’d have to find something to say about this game, which would mean I’d have to think about this game. And I’m just not up for that. Dolphins by 10.
New Orleans (+3.5) at Tampa Bay
Boy, that sure was a show the New Orleans offense put on Monday night, wasn’t it? Think the Saints can take that show on the road? Hmm. Well, what if Reggie Bush is back? I mean, things worked out OK for the Saints at home back in week one and Reggie was a big factor there. But, yeah, I hear you. I don’t think so either. Bucs by four.
NY Giants (-3) at Washington
The Giants may be all but assured of the NFC one seed (because, let’s be honest, barring a complete collapse no one’s catching them), but that doesn’t mean they’re gonna have an easy run through the last five weeks of the regular season. This game begins a series of three consecutive matches with division opponents. And while there’s no reason to believe the Giants won’t have wrapped up the NFC East and at the very least a first-round bye before Carolina rolls into the Meadowlands in week sixteen, nothing guarantees they’re gonna have fun getting there. The Native Americans are fighting for their playoff lives here. A loss would leave them with a tough, uphill battle to capture a wild card spot. I suspect they’ll get one either way (partially because I think Dallas is destined to fold), but they certainly aren’t likely to take my word for it. Washington will be playing to maintain control of its own destiny and that should be enough to make this a game. I think New Jersey comes out on top, but only by a point.
Atlanta (+5) at San Diego
The Falcons aren’t as good as Carolina made them look last weekend, but they’re still a better team than the Chargers, who are coming off of a major breakdown and have to be feeling it physically and emotionally. I like the road team to pull off an upset here. Falcons control the ball and the clock and come out ahead by three.
Pittsburgh (+1.5) at New England
This matchup, to my mind, encapsulates what’s going on in the AFC this season. Pittsburgh and New England have been elite teams in the conference and the league throughout most of the decade, but both come into this game limping, punch-drunk and looking like shadows of the teams we’re used to seeing. Seems to me that there are only so many 17-, 18- and 19-game seasons teams can take before they start to wear down, particularly when they play in a conference that includes most of the best teams in the league. So the AFC has fallen apart this season. Still, these are two tough teams that are doing everything they can to fight their way into January. The outcome of this game has the potential to play a major part in whether they make it — and how. And the key question has to do with whether the surging New England offense is good enough to overcome the steadfast Pittsburgh D. One imagines that with Dom Capers on hand as part of New England’s coaching staff Matt Cassel will go into the game with a better idea than most young quarterbacks of how to counter the Steelers’ zone blitzes. But knowing how to do something and actually executing on the field are two different things. If Cassel can pull it off, the Patriots should be able to win. There’s little threat of the Steelers putting up more than 17 points, and if Cassel and the Patriots offense can execute fairly consistently, they should be able to hit 20. This could be a great game. It could be a fairly sad game (for either team, or both). Either way, it’s likely a season-defining game. I’m looking for a New England victory and I’m ready to give the point and a half, but I won’t be surprised at any outcome other than a blowout.
Kansas City (+3) at Oakland
Yeah, this is an actual professional football game. Look as hard as you like and you won’t see a professional offense or a professional defense on the field. But everyone’s getting paid to show up and play, so professional football it is. And I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait. The Raiders are at home, so I suppose I’ll take them straight up. I’ll go with the Chiefs to cover. Call it a hedge if you like. It’s really more of a shrug.
Chicago (+3.5) at Minnesota
It’s hard to know whether the AFC West or the NFC North is the least relevant division in football. At least the NFC North contenders both have winning records. So there’s that. But, look, I have no idea which team to pick here. Neither offense can throw the ball. And neither defense will allow opponents to run. Minnesota is at home. And with a 2-2 division record going in (the Bears are at 3-1), the Vikings can scarce afford a loss. So I guess I’ll go with Minnesota to win. By a field goal. I guess.
Jacksonville (+3.5) at Houston
Oh, come on. On Monday night? Because the schedule makers had some reason to anticipate that both of these teams would be relevant this late in the season? Houston by a point. And now I’m done.
