Week Eleven Picks
With a few horribly annoying exceptions, the games this week seem pretty easy to pick, which probably means they aren’t. Here’s what I’m sort of almost certain might or might not happen.
NY Jets (+3.5) at New England
Forget all the stuff about tie-breakers within the division. Yes, it matters, but it matters equally to both teams. Both are 6-3 and each knows it’s likely going to need an edge over the other come December 29. And, you know, the fact of the matter is that if one of these squads were 1-8 and the other 8-1 right now, they’d still hate each other. The 1-8 team would be dying to make the 8-1 team look bad; and the 8-1 team would be dying to add to the 1-8 team’s misery. So, yeah, both teams are gonna be playing with great intensity. There’s nothing unusual about that. So what do you focus on when you look at this game? I’m thinking turnovers. Because, really, these teams are pretty evenly matched. Both feature balanced offenses and solid, if unspectacular, defenses. The Jets tend to score more points than the Patriots; the Pats tend to allow fewer than the Jets. New Jersey’s D is better at stopping the run. New England’s is better at stopping the pass. The players know each other inside and out, and so do the coaches. Games like this typically come down to one of three things: Which team needs a win more (as discussed, there’s probably no edge there, though if there is, it goes to the Jets, who lost to the Patriots in New Jersey in week two and would be effectively two games back in the division if they drop this one); which is playing at home (probably not a real factor in this game); and which wins the turnover battle. The difference has to be in that last area. Neither of these teams has had much difficulty with losing fumbles this season; each has coughed the ball up just four times. And neither has had much success forcing fumbles. The Pats have recovered four dropped balls, the Jets have taken away six. Interceptions are another story. Brett Favre has thrown 12 picks this season (add one thrown by Kellen Clemens and you get a team total of 13); Matt Cassel’s only thrown seven. The New England D, meanwhile, has logged eight picks to New Jersey’s seven. And it’s the disparity there that accounts for the fact that the Patriots have a +1 giveaway/takeaway differential while the Jets are at -4. I anticipate three turnovers (by which I mean picks) in this game, and you have to assume the team on the receiving end of the majority of them will end up carrying the day. And since all I have to go by is the supposition that the trends established in weeks one through ten will carry over into week eleven (which I admit is hardly guaranteed), I’m looking for New England to come out on top. Patriots by a field goal.
Denver (+5.5) at Atlanta
Five and a half points? The second best rushing offense in the league faces one of the worst rushing defenses and all the Falcons are giving is five and a half points? For real? Sign me up. Atlanta controls the ball for something like 40 minutes, giving Denver’s passing game no real chance to get going, and wins by 13.
Detroit (+14) at Carolina
Dear Congress, If you’re going to use taxpayer money to bail out the major auto makers, could you at least take the opportunity to force the idiot Ford family to sell the Lions? Pretty please. Jake Delhomme rebounds from a pitiful performance against one of the league’s worst teams to lead the Panthers in a sound thumping of another.
Philadelphia (-9.5) at Cincinnati
OK, it hardly matters this week since it’s almost impossible to lose to the Bengals, but I still have to say it: Andy, for god’s sake, you’ve got a great passing offense; you should maybe try using it next time the game’s on the line. Eagles by 20.
Chicago (+3.5) at Green Bay
Aw, hell. I don’t wanna pick this game. Can I please not pick this game? Because the thing is, the Bears should be able to win except for how they can’t stop the pass. And the Packers should be able to win except for how they can’t stop the damned run. I suppose I’m taking the Bears, though I’ll be damned if I can tell you why. Chicago by two.
Houston (+8.5) at Indianapolis
I haven’t bought into the idea that the Colts have got their season back on track, but they’re certainly not losing this game. Indy by a touchdown.
Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville
I’m riding this thing where I pick Tennessee every week figuring I’m gonna be right way more often than wrong all the way until the end of the regular season. (At which point I’m switching to the thing where I pick against any team quarterbacked by Kerry Collins in the playoffs. Though maybe not until the conference championship round.) Plus, the Jags are way too dysfunctional right now to take chances on. Titans by six.
New Orleans (-5) at Kansas City
There are three things that can happen when you throw the ball in this game and two of them are New Orleans scoring and Kansas City scoring. Bet the over. Saints by seven.
Oakland (+10.5) at Miami
The Raiders give up 158 yards a game on the ground. 158 yards a game. And since they changed coaches, Oakland’s offense has averaged seven points per game. Seven. Miami by 14, minimum.
Baltimore (+6.5) at NY Giants
OK, I’m as impressed as the next guy with Joe Flacco (and perhaps more impressed, depending on whom the next guy is). And there’s no questioning the strength of the Ravens defense. In fact, if this game were in Baltimore, I’d probably have to give serious thought to picking the Ravens. But even then I’d look at the fact that the Giants are playing the best football in the league right now, and take into account the gap between New Jersey’s +6 giveaway/takeaway differential and Baltimore’s -2, and I’d end up taking the Giants, though maybe by only point or two. In the Meadowlands, the Giants take it by seven.
Minnesota (+4) at Tampa Bay
A Minnesota loss here coupled with a Green Bay win would bring up a three-way tie in the NFC North. I don’t know what that means, but I’m fairly confident I can count on the Vikings to do their part to make it happen. Bucs by a field goal.
St. Louis (+6) at San Francisco
I’m not even contemplating picking the Rams again until I know Steven Jackson’s healthy. He isn’t. San Francisco by seven
Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle
You know, if Arizona hadn’t just come damned close to falling to San Francisco at home, picking this game would be a breeze, regardless whether Seattle gets some key offensive players back on the field. The Seahawks don’t have it this season, on either side of the ball. They’ve played poorly enough on offense to make the Cardinals middling defense look good, and poorly enough on D to make a big afternoon seem extremely likely for Arizona’s excellent offense. And the fact that one or two sort of, a little bit, kind of healthy starters might manage to swallow a bottle of painkillers and limp their way back onto the field doesn’t strike me as something that’s likely to change all that much. But the Cardinals did struggle to beat the 49ers. More than that, Arizona might actually have lost had it not been for some really awful clock management by the San Francisco coaching staff. So how does one take that into account? I can’t answer that question, which is why I can’t feel particularly good about doing what I have to do here, which is to pick the far superior team (the Cards) to come out ahead by about a touchdown.
San Diego (+4.5) at Pittsburgh
What’s a bigger disappointment: A San Diego team that’s getting four and a half points from a squad that doesn’t have the common sense to rest a badly hurt quarterback, or an AFC West that’s so weak the Chargers will still be solidly in the hunt even after they come out of the week 4-6? OK, the truth is, I’m disappointed by neither of these things. In fact, I’m kind of delighted by them. Except for how they don’t make for very good football. And for how one of them gives the Steelers an easy win. Pittsburgh by three.
Dallas (-2.5) at Washington
It would be helpful to know exactly what’s up with Tony Romo’s pinky and Clinton Portis’s knee. We know the Cowboys can’t beat good teams without Romo. Can they beat good teams without Romo at 100 percent? I guess we’re gonna find out. Unless it works out that the Native Americans can’t beat good teams without Portis (or without Portis at 100 percent), in which case this is a total fucking tossup. I guess I’ve gotta like the home team’s chances with their backup RBs over the visiting team and their semi-healthy QB. Washington by a point.
Cleveland (+4.5) at Buffalo
The Bills are done in the AFC East, but they still have a shot at a wild card berth. That goes away if they don’t dig in and get off the schneid this week. I can’t imagine the Browns failing to help out in that regard. Bills by a field goal.
