Week Five Picks
So here’s my Patriots-based question for a football “expert” for today, directed to Adam Schefter: What on earth leads you to believe that New England could possibly ever have “an inferiority complex in regards to New York” that has anything to do with the Patriots/Jets rivalry? Have you watched much football over the last 35 years, dipshit? Are you aware that the Jets haven’t played in, let alone won, a Super Bowl since 1969? Did you know that? Are you aware that the Pats have played in four Super Bowl’s since then? Or that the Pats have won two of the last three Super Bowls? Did you know those things? So what fucking inferiority complex are you talking about, exactly?
OK, I feel better now. Let’s get to this week’s games.
Looks like the straight-ahead picking is a breeze. I mean, yeah, there’s a game here, a game there that could go either way. And there’s bound to be at least one big upset, though I’m not gonna try to find it. But for the most part, you know where these games are going. Picking against the spread, on the other hand, is a nightmare. Once again, we’re looking at giant gaps and no way to know whether they’re justified. Overall, I’d say your best bet is to count on some defenses starting to really step up and look at taking some of the dogs to keep it close. But as I’ve said before, I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, do whatever you do, don’t pay attention to what I have to say.
Cleveland (+6) at Pittsburgh
Old rivalry blah, blah, blah. Important to the fans blah, blah, blah. Here’s what counts: Ben Roethlisberger is playing better football than he has any business playing. Duce Staley is back in a big way. And Lee Suggs can’t win football games all by himself (or even with a little help from William Green). The Browns do their best and keep it to within four, but the Steelers win.
Detroit (+6.5) at Atlanta
Part of me wants to believe the Lions really can pull off the big upset here. It’s not that I dislike Atlanta. There’s just something likeable about Detroit. Won’t happen, though. The Falcons have been winning with defense. And the Lions offense is too banged up to produce, anyhow. So take Atlanta and give the points.
Miami (+12.5) at New England
Here’s why this game scares me: Miami is going nowhere this season. They’re toast. And so the only thing they can possibly do for the home crowd is protect the record their team shares with four others by snapping the Pats’ 18-game win streak. Expect them to bring everything they’ve got. But, if the Pats play well, expect that not to be nearly enough. Take the Pats straight up, but the Fins with the points. The real margin on this one’s a touchdown, maybe 10 points.
Minnesota (-4) at Houston
Everyone’s favorite upset pick: Houston to make it three in a row. The Vikes are missing their two stud running backs, Michael Bennett, who’s hurt again and Onterrio Smith, who’s finally serving his four-game substance abuse suspension. And Randy Moss has gone gimpy. Doesn’t matter. Moe Williams will step up, and Moss will do just fine. Think about taking the points, but don’t even consider taking Houston straight up.
NY Giants (+3.5) at Dallas
Kurt Warner vs. Vinny Testaverde? Ugh. Don’t get me started. The big difference between these two overrated has-beens is that Warner can get the job done when he’s got the right talent around him, unlike Vinny who sucks no matter what. And Warner appears to have the right talent around him this season. Take the Giants with the points. Take the Giants straight up. This is where you’re upset is at.
Oakland (+9) at Indianapolis
With any luck, Kerry Collins will actually throw the ball to some Raiders receivers this week. Or not. And it doesn’t matter, because the Raiders D isn’t gonna stop Peyton Manning anyhow. Take the Colts. Give the points. Shit.
Tampa Bay (+3) at New Orleans
Chris Simms makes his first start under center for the Bucs. And the Saints have themselves a field day. New Orleans can’t lose; and they can’t win by less than a touchdown, either.
Buffalo (+6.5) at NY Jets
Poor Drew. Poor, poor Drew. The Jets by 14.
Jacksonville (-2.5) at San Diego
If the Jaguars had an offense, they’d be favored by a touchdown. But they don’t. The Chargers appeared to grow an offense last week, but I bet it shrinks back away on them this time out. Take the Jags and give the points.
Arizona (+1) at San Francisco
There will be something very closely resembling a football game played in San Francisco this weekend, but not here. Arizona probably pulls off the upset. Just don’t tune in to find out unless you’ve been having trouble sleeping.
Carolina (+5.5) at Denver
Carolina absolutely has to win this game if they’re gonna stop their post-Super Bowl slide. But they’re not gonna, even if Denver has to start pulling fans out of the stands to play running back. The Broncos win it by three or four.
St. Louis (+7) at Seattle
The Rams defense has given up an average of 137 yards a game on the ground this season. Emmitt Smith, who’s like 90 now, ran for 87 against them in week one. Michael Vick, T.J. Duckett and Warrick Dunn combined for more than 200 in week two. Saints backup Aaron Stecker picked up 102 in his first start in week three. And the only reason Kevan Barlow only got 42 yards last week was that the Niners got so far behind so early on that they couldn’t afford to run the ball. So what do you think happens when they face Shaun Alexander? I’ve got a pretty good idea. The Seahawks win this one by 10.
Baltimore (+1) at Washington
So Jamal Lewis sets some friends up to score some blow while he’s in college and he ends up doing four months and sitting for two games, while Ray Lewis does … um, whatever it was he did or didn’t do … and walks away without so much as a slap on the wrist. I don’t know. Seems kinda off to me. Doesn’t matter. Doesn’t mean anything to this game. Jamal’s playing. Still, I don’t see Baltimore’s D, good as it is, to have any better luck stopping Clinton Portis than it did with Preist Holmes. I like the Skins straight up and giving one.
Tennessee (+3) at Green Bay
How did this end up being the game both teams have to win to salvage their seasons? I don’t know. And neither, I’m guessing, do the folks at ABC Television. The Pack won’t drop three straight at Lambeau. I’m sure of it. Take them straight up. As far as the spread goes, I think we’re looking at a push.
