Week Eight Picks
Yeah, OK, this all makes sense to me now. I mean, it must. I went 12-2 straight up last week. And one of the two games I picked wrong, I lost by way of a 57-yard field goal in overtime. (And the other one involved the Rams beating the Cowboys, which is something I wouldn’t even pick in retrospect. Like, literally, if you were to ask me today, “Do you think the Rams will have beaten the Cowboys last Sunday?” I’d probably say, “Shit, no. How stupid do you think I am?”) So, you know, I’m feeling good. That should last about another two days. Here’s what not to expect.
Oakland (+6.5) at Baltimore
Hey, Ravens D, can I make a request: How about you put this week’sbounty on Al Davis? Baltimore by 10.
Arizona (+4.5) at Carolina
I’m not sure which of these teams I’d pick on a neutral field. But they’re not playing on one. They’re playing in Charlotte. And last I checked, the Cardinals weren’t doing too well with the traveling to the Eastern Time Zone thing. Panthers by three.
Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Dallas
Man, the mighty NFC East suddenly isn’t looking so damned mighty, is it? It looks to me like the South might be a tougher division. And while I expect things to change once things settle down in Dallas (and once the Cowboys get healthy), the Bucs look like a tougher team to me at this point. Plus, I’m fairly confident that Jon Gruden knows Brad Johnson’s weaknesses. The key stat here, to my mind, is the gap between the Bucs’ +4 giveaway/takeaway differential and the Cowboys’ -6. That’s a pretty major difference, and one that I don’t think is gonna change much based on who’s calling the defensive plays for Dallas. Tampa by four.
Washington (-7.5) at Detroit
Yeah, Washington hasn’t looked all that impressive lately, but playing Detroit is usually a pretty reliable cure for that. Native Americans by 17.
Buffalo (-1.5) at Miami
You can sometimes get away with trickery for a game or two, but as was made manifest a week ago, running a college offense in the NFL doesn’t work over the long term. Banged up though they may be, the Bills still manage to win here by no less than a field goal.
St. Louis (+7.5) at New England
For a while, I was thinking this game might prove to be a test of Bill Belichick’s defensive philosophy, which is to take away what an opponent does best. New England’s run D has been a tad spotty so far this season (not bad, but not great) and if Jim Haslett has brought anything unique to the Rams, it’s been a realization that his team features perhaps the league’s best running back. But it appears Steven Jackson won’t be 100 percent for this game. And that spells trouble for the Rams, especially if their run D, which has been significantly worse than spotty, can’t stop the Patriots’ plan C running attack. New England by 13.
San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (at Wembley Stadium, London)
Obviously, not having Reggie Bush on the field is gonna hurt the Saints. Bush makes it difficult for New Orleans’ opponents to put effective defensive game plans in place. But, you know, I’ve seen San Diego fail to put effective defensive game plans in place for a lot of teams that didn’t include Reggie Bush this season and I’m not sure why I should believe that’s gonna change in a game that comes at the end of a very wide-ranging two-week road trip. I suspect Deuce McAllister will fare well enough against San Diego’s lackluster D to give Drew Brees the room he needs to keep the ball moving and put a bunch of points on the board. I’m taking the Saints to win this one straight up.
Kansas City (+12.5) at NY Jets
Larry Johnson isn’t the only Kansas City player who’s sorry. Jets by 14.
Atlanta (+8.5) at Philadelphia
I’ve got this nagging feeling in my gut that Atlanta is somehow gonna pull off an upset. Can’t find any data to support that feeling, though. In fact, pretty much everything I look at tells me this is Philadelphia’s game to lose. The biggest factor working against my gut is that while the Falcons offense gets most of the job done on the ground (Atlanta gets nearly half its yards and more than half its TDs with its run game) the Eagles D is hard to run against, and harder still to score rushing touchdowns against. So I’ve decided not to trust my gut on this one. I’m looking for the Falcons to cover, but I’m taking the Eagles straight up. I hope I don’t end up regretting it.
Cleveland (+6.5) at Jacksonville
And so the Browns season and Romeo Crennel’s head coaching career come to a close. I’m not even thinking much about this one. I’m just taking the Jags and giving the points.
Cincinnati (+10) at Houston
Sooner of later the Bengals are gonna fall ass-backward into a victory. But it’s not happening this week. Texans take it straight up. It’s a push with the points.
NY Giants (+2.5) at Pittsburgh
I haven’t done the research to back it up, but I’d be willing to wager that the vast majority of mid-season games billed as “Super Bowl previews” ultimately aren’t. This one probably won’t be, either. And if I had to predict which one of these teams won’t be on the field in Tampa February 1, I’d probably have to go with Pittsburgh. It’s just very hard for me to see a Steelers team that is already banged up surviving eight more weeks of attrition and continuing to win most of its games. It’s also very hard to me to believe that Ben Roethlisberger’s unique talent for making bad decisions won’t catch up to his team sooner or later. And this week is as good a time for that to begin as any. The Steelers have a great defense. But so to the Giants. And the fact is, the Giants are a much better offensive football team than the Steelers, while Pittsburgh is only slightly better on D than the Giants. I like New Jersey here. And I like them to win by a touchdown.
Seattle (+5) at San Francisco
At least Mike Singletary will always be able to say his first game as head coach was a win. And that’s something. Niners win. Seahawks cover.
Indianapolis (+3.5) at Tennessee
On one hand, it’s all but impossible for me to believe the Colts could be effectively eliminated in AFC South race at the end of week eight. On the other, it’s entirely impossible for me to believe Indy’s faltering offense will be effective against Tennessee’s stout D, or that the Colts’ D will have any luck slowing down the Titans’ running game. Indy’s only hope is to get out to a 14-point lead and force Kerry Collins to try to beat them with his arm. That’s something Peyton Manning’s team ought to be able to do. But thus far this season I’ve seen no evidence they can actually pull it off. Titans win a low-scoring game by four.
