Divisional Round Picks
Here’s the deal. The way I see it, there’s about a 70 percent chance all four home teams win this weekend (because that’s what happens in the divisional round), a 25 percent chance that one of the road squads pulls off an upset, a five percent chance that two road teams come out on top, and no chance whatsoever that three or four of the home teams fall. So I’m playing the odds, picking the home teams to win straight up across the board and to cover fairly big spreads in two games. It’s not rocket science. Hell, it’s not even a model volcano full of vinegar and baking soda. Here’s what not to expect.
Seattle (+7.5) at Green Bay
The answer is no, I still don’t believe in the Seahawks. (Which probably means they’re gonna run away with this game.) But maybe I should. Particularly in this game. Seattle’s defense, statistically speaking, was just about equal to Green Bay’s through the regular season. And the Seahawks’ D came up huge last weekend, accounting for as many points as the O in the home win over Washington. The Seahawks had trouble on offense and special teams, though, and that could spell trouble in a road game against a very tough opponent (one that’s had a week to rest up). I think this game, like Seattle’s last, comes down to turnovers. If Seattle can continue the trend that saw them finish the season +10 in giveaway/takeaway differential, and if they can do it by forcing Brett Favre to throw picks while their own offense plays perfect football, I think they have a real chance to pull off the upset. Thing is, since I still don’t believe the Seahawks are for real, I have a hard time believing they can accomplish both of those goals. So I’m looking for the Packers to win it, but I’m expecting the game to go down to the wire. And I don’t see the difference being more than three or four.
Jacksonville (+13) at New England
Look, a lot of the stuff you’ve heard and read about the Jaguars this week is true. They’re a good team, with a good run defense and a better rushing offense. They play tough. They find ways to win games (though not necessarily against elite opponents). They’re fun to watch and easy to root for because they’ve typically been underrated. But you know what the Jaguars aren’t? They aren’t a team that can rush the passer. And they know it. So they tend to do two things: sit back in zones or blitz heavy. I watched them send seven guys on a fourth and 12 last week against Pittsburgh — and get burned for a touchdown. I wondered why on earth a team would blitz seven on fourth and long. And then I realized that the Jags truly felt that was their best option. When your worst option is sometimes your best option, you’re in trouble. Particularly when you’re facing the Patriots. If you’re Jacksonville, what do you do to stop the league’s best pass offense? Do you play zone D, knowing you can only cover so much and that Tom Brady, who you’re giving all day to find a targets, is bound to pick you apart? Or do you send everything you’ve got on play after play, knowing Brady, with his quick release, is going to find receivers operating under coverage and kill you that way? There’s no good option. Of course, what you hope to do is keep New England’s offense off the field. Sounds reasonable on paper. Until you realize that something else the Jaguars aren’t is two dimensional on offense. Sure, David Garrard can throw the ball. But to whom? The Jags are lacking at the wide receiver position. So much so, in fact, that the Pats can afford to bring Rodney Harrison up to the line to help out on run D whenever they want without much risk of giving up a big reception. Yeah, the Jags will manage one or two good gains on play-action, but it won’t be enough to make a difference. And, when they fall behind and have to rely on the pass, the Jaguars are toast. Because the Patriots do rush the passer well — well enough, in fact that they finished the season with 47 sacks, more than any team except the Giants. Garrard, playing in his second playoff game (his first against a team that isn’t too banged up to beat him), is going to find himself in over his head fairly early on. He’s going to make some mistakes. And those mistakes are gonna be the end of his team. Pats win 45-10.
San Diego (+8) at Indianapolis
This is a game. The Chargers are charged up. They beat the Colts in the regular season. They want a shot at New England. They want a shot at the Super Bowl. They’re going to pour everything they’ve got into this game. And in the end, that’ll almost get them a win. But not quite. Because much as the Chargers match up well against the Colts in the running game, the difference there can’t make up for the huge difference between the two teams in the passing game. Indy throws the ball way better than San Diego. And Indy defends the pass way better than San Diego. At some point, the game comes down to Philip Rivers, who’s gonna need to have the outing of his career if his team’s gonna advance. And that’s just not happening against a well-rested Colts team playing on their turf. Indianapolis by a touchdown.
NY Giants (+7.5) at Dallas
There’s this fantasy that the Giants and their terrific pass rush are gonna be able to shut down Tony Romo and steal a win. I’m not living in that particular dreamworld. The Giants brought everything they had against the Patriots in week 17 and still failed to pull off the upset despite the fact that New England was resting the half of its offensive line. So how am I supposed to believe that the Giants, with the injuries they sustained in that New England game, are now gonna turn around and top a team that beat them twice in the regular season? Playing on the road for the second consecutive week, too boot. They’re not. And I don’t care whether Terrell Owens is on the field or on the couch at the Redenbacher estate (wherever the hell that might be). Cowboys by 10.
