Wild Card Picks
My guess is that I’m gonna go 1-3 this weekend straight up. I had a very good go of it in week 17, so I’m due to take a beating. Plus, the Wild Card round is always impossible to pick. There are just too many … well, wild cards in the stinking deck. So here’s what not to expect.
Washington (+3.5) at Seattle
Yeah, I know it’s the fashionable pick — and, yeah, I’m still highly suspicious of fashionable picks — but I’m taking Washington to pull off the upset here. Even setting aside their fake win in week 17, I simply can’t ignore what I watched the Redskins do in the latter part of the regular season (particularly in their consecutive road wins over solid football teams, the division rival Giants and the then-streaking Vikings). I also can’t help but continue to see Seattle as a paper tiger, a team that played a relatively weak schedule and still managed only 10 wins. Assuming Clinton Portis figures out how to hold on to the damned ball, the Redskins should be able to take this game, if only by a point or two.
Jacksonville (-1.5) at Pittsburgh
This is being sold as a tough game to pick. I’m not so sure. OK, yeah, no one’s ever beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh twice in a season. Great. That’s nice for Pittsburgh fans and all, but it’s a meaningless stat. Because it has nothing to do with the here and now. In the here and now, Pittsburgh is seriously beat up and not looking like a team that’s ready to make a meaningful run in the playoffs. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is fresh, hungry and out to make a statement. And, yeah, the Jags are gonna have some trouble in the passing game (if not here, then next week in New England) which will hurt them, but that’s not gonna be enough this week to offset the Steelers’ problems. I don’t think we’ll see quite the one-sided game we saw when Jacksonville last visited Heinz Field, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the final margin were very much the same. Jags by a touchdown.
NY Giants (+3) at Tampa Bay
This game, along with Jags-Steelers on Saturday night, will doubtlessly be viewed as a test of whether it’s better for playoffs-bound teams to rest starters or play to win in week 17. The Giants, as we all know, chose to play full-on. And while they were certainly impressive, they also ended up suffering some injuries that continue to be an issue headed into this game. The Bucs took the week off. They’re healthier than the Giants, but there’s a question as to whether they’ll have lost some intensity or acquired some rust. Me, I don’t think which team played last week and which team didn’t makes a damned bit of difference. But that’s mostly because I don’t think the Giants could win this game under any circumstances. The Giants are the only playoff team that finished the regular season ranked in the bottom half of the league in points allowed. New York gave up nearly 22 points a game, putting them 17th in NFL in that category. That’s five more points than Tampa Bay’s D allowed. And stopping opponents from scoring is a much better indication of whether your have the kind of D that can lift a team to a championship than stats regarding run and pass yards surrendered. (It’s notable, though, that in yards per game, Tampa Bay’s pass D ranks at the top of the league with 170.5.) Tampa simply matches up well against New York. The Bucs’ modified West Coast offense, executed by a savvy, veteran QB has the potential not simply to overcome the Giants’ vaunted pass rush, but to turn the Giants’ defensive strengths against them. And the Bucs’ D, in addition to being stingy, is keyed to taking away the ball. Tampa finished the regular season at the top of the NFC in giveaway/takeaway differential with a +15; the Giants wrapped up the season at -9. I expect the turnover trend to continue in this game. I think we’ll see Eli Manning throw two or three picks over the course of the afternoon (he’s always good for one or two, so I’m not looking for anything that far outside the usual), and I think that’ll be enough to end the Giants’ season and perhaps Tom Coughlin’s tenure as New York’s head coach. Bucs by six.
Tennessee (+8.5) at San Diego
Let’s be honest, here. The Titans really have no business being in the playoffs. Not only was the win that put them in a gift, it was a gift they did their best not to take. And, you know, even if they had earned the berth, the Titans wouldn’t have been able to do anything with it. They’ve got a choice between a quarterback who’s immobile because he’s hurt and a a quarterback who’s immobile because he’s immobile. And they’ve got no one left to catch passes regardless of who’s throwing them. So what will the Chargers do? Man up in the secondary, stack the box to stop the run on first down, and go after whoever’s playing under center for the Titans on passing downs. That adds up to a lot of trouble for Tennessee’s offense, which in turn means trouble for a Tennessee D that could spend 38 minutes on the field. And that spells doom for the Titans. This game’s over by halftime. San Diego by three touchdowns. (And in a week, the Colts will be wishing they’d played in week 17, because the Browns at least would have made San Diego break a sweat.)
