Week Fifteen, Pt. 2
I’ve got a bad feeling about this week. Not sure why. Most of these games look pretty damned cut-and-dry to me. But I do just the same. Here’s what you probably won’t see happen.
Cincinnati (-8) at San Francisco
Getting eight points from the 5-8 Cincinnati Bengals in your own stadium. Man, that’s gotta hurt regardless of how bad your quarterback situation is. And to make matters worse if you’re the Niners, you’ve already traded away the only silver lining a team can find in a season like this. You know, I’d wonder if Mike Nolan’s job were in jeopardy if I thought there were any chance San Francisco could find someone willing to take over. Bungles by 10.
Seattle (-7) at Carolina
Nope, I still don’t believe in the Seahawks. Except this week I do. Or, really, I guess it’s that I believe the Panthers will always find a way to lose. Seattle straight up. It’s a push with the points.
Buffalo (+5.5) at Cleveland
It’s a credit to the Bills that they’ve continued to battle through what’s been a very difficult season and have got themselves to the point where a win in this game would put them in decent shape for a run at the AFC six seed. Unfortunately for Buffalo, they’re not winning this game. How am I so sure? Simple. Since neither defense can stop anything, I’m guessing the game goes to the team with the higher-scoring offense. That’s Cleveland, by about 10 points a game. So I’m looking for the Browns to win by that same margin. (But next year Buffalo finishes second in the AFC East and grabs a wild card spot.)
Tennessee (-4) at Kansas City
The Titans are hanging on to the hope of sneaking into the playoffs (it’s not gonna happen, but that’s neither here nor there for the moment). The Chiefs are licking their wounds and thinking about 2008. I see no reason to believe either of those things will change based on the outcome of this game. Tennessee by three.
Baltimore (-3) at Miami
I still find it hard to believe that a team can finish the season 0-16. But I can’t see the Dolphins failing to make it at least as far as 0-14. Ravens by a touchdown.
NY Jets (+24.5) at New England
You know what’s funny? In a normal, regular world, this game is completely meaningless. Because here’s a simple fact that’s been all but lost in all the hype about a perfect season, astounding individual records, and all the craziness about Spygate, revenge and the mutual hatred of two coaches, two teams and two groups of fans: all the 13-0 New England Patriots need to do to enter the playoffs as the AFC’s top seeded team is to win one of their final three games. One. Not this one. Any one of the three will do. That’s an astounding thing when you consider the team’s history. And, much as I will revel in seeing the Jets destroyed and watching new records set, it’s kinda fun to set that stuff aside just for a minute and think of just how good things have been for the Pats and their fans. Keeps you grounded. New England by no fewer than 28 (regardless of the weather).
Arizona (+3.5) at New Orleans
Here’s another one of those games where the big prize is that you get to keep fooling yourself about having a shot at the playoffs. So, yeah. Wow. The fact of the matter is that neither of these teams deserves to win. But one of them has to. And since Arizona apparently has neither a pass rush nor a secondary, I’m going with the team that pretty much has to throw the ball 40 times anyhow. Saints by a touchdown.
Jacksonville (+4) at Pittsburgh
The biggest problem with losing to the Jaguars this week, if you’re the Steelers, is that it increases the chances that you’re gonna see them again three weeks from now. And it’s pretty clear that the one thing you don’t want, no matter who you are, is to host hungry, talented Jacksonville in the wild card round. Still and all, the Steelers are going to court that very fate. Pittsburgh, suffering from the post-New England game hangover that has dogged teams all season long, is losing this game by three.
Green Bay (-9.5) at St. Louis
A win here puts the Packers one victory away from clinching a first-round bye (with a trip to Chicago and a home game against Detroit ahead on their schedule). A loss here … well that’d be about par for the course for St. Louis. So let’s figure on that. Packers by nine.
Atlanta (+12) at Tampa Bay
Looks like the Bucs will have Jeff Garcia back under center this week. You know, assuming Jon Gruden isn’t lying again. I’ll take Chucky at his word. And anyway, I’m not sure it matters. The newly decapitated Falcons aren’t beating anyone this week. Bucs by 14.
Indianapolis (-10.5) at Oakland
I’m not sure I get the spread on this game. OK, so there are no grudges involved, but given that the Colts are looking to sew up a first-round bye and the Raiders are beyond bad, this game could easily turn out to be as lopsided (if not as ugly) as the Patriots-Jets match. Indy by 20.
Philadelphia (+10) at Dallas
All the Cowboys need to clinch a first-round bye is a win. It might not be as easy as you think. The Eagles may not be a good team, but they’re really not too terrible either. And they’ve shown recently that they can play tough football on the road against good teams. Dallas wins, but not by more than a touchdown.
Detroit (+9.5) at San Diego
Shawne Merriman’s gonna miss this game. And Lorenzo Neal is gone for the season. So that should … well, actually, it probably won’t help the Lions much at all. Detroit, its strong start a distant memory, falls to 6-8, though maybe they only lose by six or seven.
Washington (+4) at NY Giants
You know, this is a pretty damned even matchup. Both teams have mediocre offenses and slightly above average Ds. Both give the ball away far too often (the Giants have a giveaway-takeaway differential of -7, the Redskins -8). And neither team is in any way likely to be playing come the second weekend in January. The two differences: the Giants are at home and the Giants will still be playing on the first weekend in January. Indeed, the Giants will clinch a playoff spot with their win by a field goal here.
Chicago (+9) at Minnesota
If there’s a team that’s gonna upset the applecart in the NFC playoffs, it’s the Minnesota Vikings, who edge one step closer to wrapping up the three seed and becoming the Seattle Seahawks worst nightmare with a 10-point win over the defending conference champion (see how funny that looks right now) Chicago Bears.
