Week Four Picks
Here’s one way college football polls make more sense than political polls: In college football, if you get the living shit kicked out of you in a big game, you drop in the polls. Why? Because you got the living shit kicked out of you, which proves you didn’t deserve to be in the spot you were in. OK, yeah, it’s not an exact science. And sometimes the polling results seem more than a bit arbitrary. But it has at least a bit of logic to it. All I can hope is that the political polls start to work a bit more like the football polls by the next time Bush gets his clocked cleaned.
Yeah, sure, we can move on to football. I mean, if you insist. As usual, I can’t help you do anything but lose money. But maybe that’s more fun for you than losing money on your own. Whatever works for you. Onward.
You know how you can tell this week is gonna leave you bruised and bleeding and wishing you didn’t know what a goddamned football looks like? Road favorites. Look down this list of games. In 10 out or 14, the road team is favored. And not just by a little in some places. Philly’s giving nine points. New England’s giving five and a half. The Jets are giving six. This does not bode well. And believe me when I tell you it’ll end in tears.
Cincinnati (+5) at Pittsburgh
At least if you chose to give the points here, you’re doing it with the home team. And with the team that includes Hines Ward, who’s having a remarkable season, and Duce Staley, who’s come on in a way no one (except maybe Duce) anticipated. Oh, and also not the team that has struggling Carson Palmer under center. Go ahead and make the bet.
Indianapolis (-3.5) at Jacksonville
You have to figure the Colts are gonna stumble somewhere. And it’s tempting to think it’ll be here, against a formidable Jaguars D. Trouble is, Indy’s gonna score on you no matter how good your defense may be, and it’s hard to imagine Jacksonville’s offense is gonna be able to keep up. I’d take the Colts and give the points.
New England (-5.5) at Buffalo
The last time the Pats played in Buffalo, they took a 31-0 beating. The last time the Pats hosted the Bills, New England turned that score around. The Pats have to win this game to tie Miami’s consecutive-win record at 18. And, since the NFL loves a drama, and Miami’s heading to Foxborough in a week, the Pats simply aren’t allowed to lose this game. That said, Buffalo’s defense has been playing quite well, so although the Pats tend to do well against their former quarterback, Drew Bledsoe, you can expect the Bills D to keep Buffalo competitive. The Pats win it by a field goal — late.
N.Y. Giants (+7) at Green Bay
Green Bay center Mike Flanagan is gone for the season with a knee injury. That’s not good news for an offense that’s been struggling mightily over the last two weeks. Still, the Packers don’t lose much at home, and they’ve already dropped one at Lambeau this season, so they’re gonna be pulling out all the stops. And the Giants, well, their wins haven’t exactly been pretty. Expect an ugly loss by New York this week, which is to say, take the Pack straight up but the Giants with the points.
Oakland (-2) at Houston
Those who have been watching know this about Oakland: They’re defense seems to get better and better every week. Their run D came into the season strong and their secondary really started to come on in a big way last weekend. Those who haven’t been watching that D are looking for the upset here. But I caution you against making that pick. Take the Raiders and give the points. They’re gonna win it by a touchdown or more.
Philadelphia (-9) at Chicago
You can’t take a team that’s giving nine points on the road. Trouble is, you can’t count on Philly not to cover, particularly against a Chicago team that has who under center? Do you know who’s starting at QB for Chicago? I didn’t until, like, 20 seconds ago. It’s Jonathan Quinn, a guy who’s started three games in seven years in the league. He’s only even made appearances in 13 games. You’ve never even heard of him, have you? Here’s what you need to know: In those 13 appearances, Quinn has thrown three touchdowns and rushed for one other. He’s been picked off four times. He’s coughed the ball up seven times, losing the ball to the opposing D on four of those. And he’s racked up a passer rating of 64.2. So what I’m saying is, umm, yes, apparently you can take a team that’s giving nine points on the road. Sometimes you have to.
Washington (-3) at Cleveland
Finally, Lee Suggs is in the lineup for Cleveland. He’ll be splitting carries with William Green, though. And in the end, it doesn’t much matter. If the Browns D that played the Giants last week shows up for this game, Clinton Portis is gonna have a field day. Take the Skins and give the points.
Atlanta (+3.5) at Carolina
Someone should get word to Michael Vick that they legalized the forward pass — back in 1906. Throw the ball every now and then, Mike, and your team’s allegedly powerful offense might actually score here and there. Carolina’s D should be able to contain Atlanta, but I’m guessing the Panthers win it by more like one or two than three and a half.
New Orleans (-3) at Arizona
Aaron Brooks on grass for the first time this season. If there’s an Aaron starring in this game’s highlights, it’ll be Stecker, who goes up against a downright miserable Cardinals run D. If Stecker steps up, it’s a big day for New Orleans. If not, here’s your upset. The conservative pick (the one I’m making) is with the Saints, but don’t put money on this game, ’cause you’ll get screwed either way.
Denver (-3) at Tampa Bay
King asshole Michael Pittman returns to the Bucs from a three-game suspension he got for being one of the biggest douchebags in a league that at times seems absolutely lousy with douchebags. He’s just in time to replace injured Charlie Garner, too. So Tampa Bay still has one guy who can catch passes. Too bad he’s not a wideout. Denver wins and covers.
N.Y. Jets (-6) at Miami
You know that Miami D? The one that’s the team’s single bright point this season? Well, it actually kinda sucks against the run. That’s a tough position to be in with a resurgent Curtis Martin in town. You can’t give six on the road, but you can’t take six with the Fins. So stay away from gambling on this one; just take the Jets straight up.
Tennessee (-3) at San Diego
Even if Steve McNair can’t start, this one belongs to the Titans. Billy Volek is more than capable of getting the job done against the Chargers. Titans by a touchdown.
St. Louis (-3.5) at San Francisco
Now listen to me and listen to me good: You take the home team with the points on this one. You take them straight up, too. The Rams are struggling. And Kevan Barlow always, always, always has a big day against St. Louis. Just do what I say, OK?
Kansas City (+5.5) at Baltimore
Jamal Lewis’ lawyers reportedly working to plead out the client’s coke-brokering case. (Jamal, it appears, knows how to score off the field as well as on it.) If they get the deal they’re supposedly working on, Jamal will do less than a year. That has absolutely no bearing on this game, of course, except for the fact that if Jamal has incentives to earn, he may be looking to run for even more yards than usual. And since Kansas City can’t seem to do anything right this season, I’m thinking you can go ahead and give those five and a half.
