Week Twelve Picks, Pt. 1, Thanksgiving
Well, at least the NFL managed to slot the one worthwhile game this Thanksgiving right smack-dab in the middle of the dinner hour (here on the East Coast, anyhow). But, you know, I guess that means no one will mind too much if the tryptophan does them in before the Dallas-Jets game gets rolling. Here’s what not to expect on the holiday (I’ll be back on Friday with the rest of my bad predictions for week twelve). Enjoy your Thanksgiving.
Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit
Blah, blah, blah, Brett Favre on turf. Blah, blah, blah, the Lions always beat the Packers when they play on Thanksgiving (well, 11 out of 16 times so far). Blah, blah, blah, whatever stupid thing you’ve got. Here’s what I’ve got: The Packers own pretty much every matchup in this game, a factor particularly pronounced when you look at Detroit’s offense vs. Green Bay’s D. The Pack should be able to bring a ton of pressure on Jon Kitna, who is going to find, as the pass rush closes in, that his outlets are very well covered. That’s gonna translate to picks. It’s also gonna translate to the Lions continuing their late-season collapse. Packers by 17.
NY Jets (+14) at Dallas
It’s tempting to think this could work out to be a trap game for the Cowboys. I mean, if ever there were a setup for a trap, this is it. Dallas essentially locked up the NFC East title over the last three weeks with its string of wins over Philadelphia, New York and Washington. And they’re a week away from a showdown with Green Bay that’s likely to decide which team gets home field through the NFC playoffs. And right in the middle of all that, here come the lowly Jets. Easy to overlook. That’s how you get caught in a trap. Problem is, the Jets have next to no ability to capitalize even if the Cowboys come out soft. In fact, if Laveranues Coles is unable to play (did he get hurt, or did he just wake up and realize he was still trapped on the Jets?), the Cowboys likely will be able to sleepwalk to a win. That ain’t much of a trap, is it? Cowboys by the two touchdowns Vegas is taking away.
Indianapolis (-11.5) at Atlanta
Man, I’d love to see the Colts struggle again this week. But they’d probably have to play an actual professional football team for that to happen. So Indy rolls (winning by 14 or better) and all of the shameless Colts fans in the national media start talking breathlessly about the team’s resurgence. Ugh. I, for one, will not be thankful for that.
