Week Eight Picks
Next weekend can’t come soon enough for me. In the meantime, here’s a rundown of what you probably won’t see in the near term.
Indianapolis (-6.5) at Carolina
Vinny’s gonna start again. That’s almost interesting. In other news, this game pits a mediocre NFC team against a squad one could hardly expect to get much of a challenge from one of the better NFC teams. So, yeah, I’ll give the points.
Detroit (+5) at Chicago
I have a hard enough time picking the Bears to win straight up these days. I’m certainly not surrendering five points. That said, I can’t really see the Lions managing 34 points in the fourth quarter a second time this season (or really ever in a road game). So I will take the Bears to win.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cincinnati
Three and a half? Seriously? Because the Cincinnati defense has shown an ability to stop what exactly? Yeah, I’ll take the Steelers and give the points. In a heartbeat.
NY Giants (-9) vs. Miami (at Wembley Stadium, London)
What do you figure is more likely to happen in London this weekend, the Dolphins finding the end zone or the FBI finding Whitey Bulger? Yeah, that’s what I’m thinking. Giants by two touchdowns, maybe more if they dig deep into their souls and decide they can live with accusations about running up the score.
Philadelphia (-1) at Minnesota
Tarvaris Jackson not being able to throw the ball ultimately may be the best thing that could possibly happen to the Vikings. Because Jackson throwing the ball to the Vikes’ hopelessly bad receivers is about the last thing Minnesota needs right now. Put the game in Adrian Peterson’s more than capable hands, trust the defense to shut down Philadelphia’s running attack and the Eagles to shut down their own passing attack, and the Vikings should be able to win this game without even a hint of a pass offense. That is, I’ll take the home team to pull off the minor upset.
Cleveland (-3) at St. Louis
Steven Jackson says he’s healthy and ready to start. Unfortunately for him, the Rams are unhealthy and pretty much finished. (Can I get a rim shot over here, please?) That’s right, I’m taking the Browns. On the road. And giving the points. How weird is that?
Oakland (+7.5) at Tennessee
Remember that thing where the Raiders had an impenetrable defense? Yeah, that was last season. Also, Vince Young is healthy again. I’m taking the Titans and giving the points.
Buffalo (+3) at NY Jets
This game likely decides which team plays a second-place schedule next year and which team comes in at third. So, you know, that’s pretty compelling. Looking at the stats, you can only conclude that the Jets are the slightly less awful team. Looking at what’s actually been going on both on and off the field, you have to like Buffalo. I’m going with the trends over the stats in this one. Bills pull off their second straight upset victory.
Houston (+10) vs. San Diego (at a location to be named)
It doesn’t much matter where this game is played. The Chargers are the better team. Moreover, they’re not the team with the big question mark at a key position. And they’re not the team that just had the rug pulled out from under them in dramatic fashion. So I’m taking San Diego, though I’m thinking 10 is way too much for this gypsy squad to give away right now.
Jacksonville (+4) at Tampa Bay
Apparently, Quinn Gray is in his fourth NFL season. Had you ever heard of him before last week? Right. So there you go. Jacksonville’s fine defense notwithstanding, the Bucs win here by six.
Washington (+16) at New England
I think this game might turn out to be New England’s biggest challenge so far this season. The Pats are coming off back-to-back road games, the first against one of the better teams in the league and the second against a division rival that had given them trouble in the past. They’re also just a week away from a showdown with the NFL’s other elite team. Even for a team with the kind of laser focus we’ve come to expect from the Patriots, there can only be so much emotional energy to go around. And whatever the Pats have applied to the games surrounding this one has to come from somewhere. Add to that the fact that Washington once again has a hell of a defense — though it’s worth noting that the Redskins are better at defending the run than the pass, and that the most prolific passing offenses Washington has faced this year, Green Bay’s and Detroit’s, each have scored exactly one third as many passing touchdowns as the Patriots so far this season. Of course, the Redskins offense has been lackluster at best, and their passing game absolutely stinks. That won’t serve them well if they find themselves in a shootout. There’s little doubt that the Patriots are the better team here. By far. But my guess is that the Skins D and the Pats’ schedule will conspire to keep it a bit closer than the oddsmakers expect. I think the Pats win by somewhere between 10 and 13.
New Orleans (-2.5) at San Francisco
Hey, I’ve got a great idea about how the Saints can keep the rebound from their 0-4 start on track: play a team so beat up and desperate it’s willing to start a quarterback with a third-degree shoulder separation. This game should be almost as painful for Niners fans to watch as it will be for Alex Smith to play. Saints by nine.
Green Bay (+3) at Denver
Is anyone in Denver even gonna remember this game’s happening? I mean, unless the Red Sox sweep? I guess that’s beside the point. Trouble is, for me, that the point is me picking against Brett Favre on a Monday night. Against a team I don’t think is all that impressive, no less. Thing is, the main reason Denver’s unimpressive is that they can’t stop the run. And the main problem Green Bay has on offense is that they have no running game. Assuming anyone’s watching, I expect what we’ll see is a lot of Brett throwing balls to the Broncos’ DBs. One of those will go for six the other way. Tack on the point after, and you get the likely margin of victory for the home team.
