Week Six Picks
Looks to me like there’s exactly one game worth watching this week. I can’t even bear to spend a lot of time contemplating the rest of these dogs. So give my opinion even less weight than usual this week. You know, if that’s possible.
St. Louis (+9.5) at Baltimore
GusFrerotte. You really need me to say anything else? I’m taking Baltimore and giving the points.
Minnesota (+5.5) at Chicago
I don’t care who starts at quarterback for the Vikings. Don’t care how bloody awful the Bears starting QB is either. The Vikings simply aren’t winning in Chicago. They’re not even coming close. Bears by a touchdown.
Miami (+4.5) at Cleveland
Man, you’d never guess the Dolphins are as bad as they are listening to Joey Porter run his mouth. But they are, which is why I’m happy to give the points in this matchup.
Washington (+3) at Green Bay
Turns out Green Bay isn’t that good after all. Is anybody truly shocked by this. I still like Green Bay’s chances at home against a Redskins team that I don’t believe is quite as good as its 3-1 record. I’ll take Green Bay straight up and look for a push vs. the spread.
Houston (+6.5) at Jacksonville
I’ve gotta tell you, I like the Jags because they’re at home. But six and a half seems more than a bit excessive to me. I’m looking for Jacksonville to come out ahead by two or three points in a very hard-fought battle.
Cincinnati (-3) at Kansas City
Why would Kansas City stick with an injured QB? Maybe it’s because Herm Edwards loves to lose. Or maybe it’s because Herm realizes that it wasn’t like his offense was putting up any points anyhow. Possibly both. Thing is, with one of the worst defenses in the league coming in to town, it’s entirely possible the Chiefs will be able to put up points no matter who starts under center. But will they be able to score enough to keep up with the Bengals high-powered offense? I’m guessing not. Cincy by a field goal.
Philadelphia (-3) at NY Jets
Quick: Which of these two one-win teams sucks the most? Give up? It’s the Jets. Because at least the Eagles have something resembling a defense. Enjoy 1-5, Eric. And, uh, good luck on the job market in the off-season. You’re gonna need it.
Tennessee (+3) at Tampa Bay
I still believe in Jeff Garcia I truly do. But I also still believe that you can’t win professional football games without a legitimate running back. And I just don’t see a one-dimensional Buccaneers offense being able to get much accomplished against the Titans’ very solid D. That means lots of three and outs, which means lots of time on the field for Tampa’s defense. And that means that no matter how strong the Bucs D might be, or how well it matches up here, eventually it’s gonna wear down. I don’t care how poorly they played at home a week ago, I like the Titans to pull off the upset on the road this week.
Carolina (+4) at Arizona
Can a 43-year-old man go from sitting on his couch watching games to starting for a new team in five days? Well, apparently he can. It’s just that you can’t hope for him to be terribly successful. I’ll take the Cards, give the points and do my best not to rubberneck if things get as ugly as I suspect they might.
New England (-5) at Dallas
The consensus of experts is that New England wins this one, but by nothing remotely resembling the 23-point average margin of victory the Patriots have enjoyed through the first five weeks of the season. I know that whenever the experts agree on too much, they end up being wrong about at least some of it. And since I’m certainly not gonna pick against New England in this game, or any other this season (Adam Schefter did a nice job of summing up my logic in a radio interview recently, noting that if you consistently pick the Patriots, you can feel pretty confident that you’re gonna be right about 15 times this season), so I’m looking for the consensus to come out wrong on the matter of how competitive the game will be. That is, I’m looking for the Pats to win this one in a blowout. And the difference, in my mind, won’t be the fact that the Dallas defensive backs don’t match up well with the Pats wide receivers (though that’s a factor) or the fact that Bill Belichick-coached teams typically eat relatively inexperienced quarterbacks like Tony Romo for lunch (though that will certainly come into play. The difference is line play. The Patriots are tougher than the Cowboys on the line of scrimmage — on both sides of the ball. Dallas’ pass rushers had a tough time getting to Trent Edwards on Monday night, and New England’s offensive line is stronger than Buffalo’s. That leads me to conclude that the Cowboys are unlikely to have much success getting to the league’s leading passer here. (Add to that the matchup problems for Dallas’ secondary and things don’t look too pretty.) Also on Monday night, the Dallas O-line was completely ineffective in keeping Buffalo’s pass rush out of Romo’s face. I don’t think anyone would argue that Buffalo’s D line is on par with New England’s. So I’m expecting to see Romo say arrivederci to a few more balls in this game (he probably won’t throw another five picks, but two will be more than enough). Dallas may see some limited success in the run game early on, but that will fade toward halftime, and will go away entirely if the Cowboys find themselves playing from a 10-point deficit, which I expect to happen by the middle of the third quarter. The Cowboys may keep it close through the first half, but the difference in line play will catch up with them as the game wears on, and the Pats will open up a big lead heading into the fourth quarter, a lead they’ll be able to protect much better than the Bills were. In the end, I expect New England’s margin of victory to rest somewhere between 20 and 24 points.
Oakland (+10) at San Diego
The Raiders go into this game leading the AFC West by half a game. Given that the Chargers at least appear to have come to life a week ago, I’m expecting Oakland to come out of this game tied for either second or last place in the division. Chargers by 14.
New Orleans (+6.5) at Seattle
Flex scheduling can’t begin soon enough for me. Nor, I expect, can the 2007 season end soon enough for the Saints, who are almost officially the biggest bust of the year. I don’t think the Seahawks are a particularly good team and I’d still give double the six and a half.
NY Giants (-3) at Atlanta
Are you kidding me? Are you fucking kidding me? The New England-Dallas game is on at 4:15 on Sunday afternoon, and this is what we get in one of the two prime time slots. I don’t even have it in me to discuss this game in any real way. The Giants apparently aren’t as bad as I expected them to be, while the Falcons are exactly as bad as everyone expected them to be. Therefore, I’m looking for the Giants to win this one by a touchdown.
