Thanksgiving Game Picks
I don’t have time to get to all 16 games before the holiday, but I did work through the Thanksgiving day trio. So here’s what you can not expect to see in between courses and naps. I’ll try to get to the rest by Friday. Enjoy your holiday.
Miami (-2.5) at Detroit
Joey’s looking to make a statement. The Dolphins are playing like a team that wants very much to be the “experts'” off-season darlings once again. (Hell, there are even some folks down in Miami looking at the 4-6 Fins’ big three-game winning streak and talking playoffs. Seriously. Check the link. I’m not making this up.) And Detroit just found out that Shaun Rogers hasn’t quite managed to get himself into playing shape yet. Plus Kevin Jones is probably out with a bum ankle. And and then there’s the fact that, as usual, Detroit sucks. Dolphins by a touchdown.
Tampa Bay (+11) at Dallas
Breaking news! Turns out Terrell Owens is a self-absorbed asshole. Shocking, isn’t it? Of course, maybe T.O.’s just too busy relearning how to catch passes to take time to send good wishes to his old teammate. Now would be a good time for Terrell to bone up on his fundamentals, given the fact that the resurgent Cowboys appear poised to snatch the NFC East away from faltering Giants. And my guess is that Owens will have rather a good outing here. Not only because he has a way of coming on strong when the spotlight’s on his team, but because the Cowboys are facing a Tampa D that allows something on the order of 210 yards per game in the air and has given up 16 passing touchdowns this season (only five teams have allowed more) while picking off just three balls (only one team, Washington, has intercepted fewer). Plus, Dallas is facing a team that plays a Tampa 2 for the second straight week; and, if memory serves, they fared pretty well against the Colts. Part of me is reluctant to give the 11 points, both because that’s just way too big a spread in an NFL game and because Jon Gruden is 3-0 coaching against the Cowboys. But then I consider that two of those wins came when Gruden was coaching the Raiders and the third came as coach to the 2003 post-Super Bowl Bucs team that was bad (finished 7-9) but not nearly so bad as this year’s squad. And I also look at the fact that Tampa will be playing for the third time in 11 days. And then I figure, what the hell, I’m gonna go ahead and give the damned points.
Denver (pick ’em) at Kansas City
A loss here and the Broncos will have dropped from first place in the AFC West and a near-lock for a playoff spot (and possibly a first-round bye) to third place in the division and in serious jeopardy of missing the post-season. All that in a matter of just two weeks. And a Denver loss here is just what I expect. Why’s that? Well, let’s start with Denver’s record in Arrowhead. It ain’t good. In the 10 seasons prior to this one, the Broncos have won only two regular season games in Kansas City. Adding a playoff win at Arrowhead to the mix, Denver still only comes out 3-8 over that span. And two of those eight losses came in games that pitted Denver teams that finished 11-5 and 10-6 against Kansas City teams that wrapped up 7-9. That’s not a healthy track record no matter how you look at it. Then I factor in the Broncos’ complete collapse in the second half Sunday night vs. San Diego. And while I know Larry Johnson isn’t quite LaDainian Tomlinson, he is an immensely talented back who’s found the end zone 11 times in the Chiefs’ last six games. I have very little doubt but that the Broncos have it in them to win this game. And I won’t be at all surprised if they pull it together, win here and begin a march into January. But I won’t believe it until I see it. And for the nonce, I’ll take my chances with the Chiefs.
