Week Eleven Picks
I’m late this week, but I promise my picks are entirely as unreliable as ever. For whatever that’s worth.
Atlanta (+4) at Baltimore
What happens when a team that relies on the run for the bulk of its offensive production — and that has already seen its rushing totals drop by something like 60 yards a game in its last few tilts — runs up against the league’s second best run D? It loses. That’s what. Atlanta probably only loses this game by three, but that’s enough. That’ll make three in a row. And pretty much end the Falcons’ hopes of getting back in the NFC South race.
Buffalo (+2.5) at Houston
As far as I can figure, the oddsmakers have this one sussed. There’s absolutely no reason I can think of to expect anything other than a narrow Houston win. But I’m always wrong about games like this. And this season, so are the oddsmakers. So I’m taking Buffalo.
Chicago (-7) at NY Jets
Jets fans are pumped. For the first time in 827 years, their team beat the Patriots. Looked good doing it, too. And so the way they figure it, the Jets have shot at making the post season. Hell, maybe they can steal the AFC East crown. Now, here comes reality, roaring out of Chicago with a gent named Jones who’s gonna pound the ball down the Jets throats all afternoon long, And that’s it, Jets fans. Because, while its true that sometimes you get to eat the bear, it’s equally true that sometimes the Bears eat you. I’d give 10 if I had to.
Cincinnati (+3.5) at New Orleans
There comes a point in certain seasons when you have to stop considering what a team should be and focus on what that team is. That point, I think, has long since come and gone where the Cincinnati Bengals are concerned. The Bengals are a one-dimensional team. They can score points on offense with the best of them, but their D has morphed from a unit that couldn’t stop the run into a unit that can’t stop anything at all. And when you’re traveling to face a Saints team that puts up an average of 25 points a game (31 per in the last two weeks) and is pushing for a division title, shoddy defense only buys you a loss. I’d give the three and a half twice over here.
Minnesota (+3.5) at Miami
Once upon a time this was gonna be the game where Daunte Culpepper got to show his former team that he’s still got what it takes to win in the NFL. Now, with it looking more and more like the question of what Culpepper can and can’t do won’t be settled until next season, it’s just a boring matchup between a Dolphins team that may be mounting yet another too-little-too-late end-of-season surge and a Vikings squad that appears to be in full-on collapse. Guess I’ll go with the squad that’s on the upswing, though with Joey Harrington under center, there’s no way I’m taking Miami to win by more than a point.
New England (-6) at Green Bay
There’s only one question you have to ask in order to figure out how this game is gonna go: Is the Patriots’ offense gonna play as badly this week as it did in weeks nine and ten? Because if the Pats keep sucking on O, they’re not just gonna lose, they’re gonna get their asses kicked. You can’t keep playing that poorly and expect to stay in game the way New England has. Sooner or later, some team is gonna steamroll you. Me, I just have a really hard time believing the Patriots have a third straight horrible outing in them. And my guess is that even if they play just on the good side of average, they should be able to handle a Packers team that plays OK against the run but has the league’s second worst pass D.
Oakland (+10) at Kansas City
On Monday, I’ll be 40 years old. The first conversation I can remember having about professional football took place when I was five or six. I’m pretty sure it wasn’t the first time I’d ever talked football. So what I’m saying is, I’ve been paying attention to this game for a mighty long time. And I promise you I have never seen a team in such utter disarray as the 2006 Oakland Raiders. You’ve got multi-millionaire veterans who just aren’t in the mood to play hard. You’ve got a quarterback getting punished for speaking honestly about an offensive system that hasn’t been effective since the middle ages. And you’ve got opponents feeling so confident that they’re willing to roll out a rusty quarterback against you so they can be sure he’ll be ready to face a real NFL team come Thanksgiving. That’s as bad as it gets. I think. Kansas City by 21.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cleveland
Last week’s results aside, I still don’t believe the Steelers are one bit better than their record. Of course, I’d say the exact same thing about the Browns. Pittsburgh wins, Cleveland covers.
St. Louis (+6.5) at Carolina
It’s hard for me to understand how the Panthers are giving most of a touchdown in this game, since, on paper at least, it appears the Rams do just about everything other than stop the run better than the Panthers do. I could see St. Louis pull off the upset here. But my gut tells me it doesn’t happen that way. I’ll take the Panthers straight up, the Rams with the points.
Tennessee (+13) at Philadelphia
I suppose if I tried hard enough, I might find something to say about this game. Lord knows others have. But it’s late and I’m just not up to it. Eagles by 10.
Washington (+3) at Tampa Bay
Wanna know what a well-executed corner blitz looks like? Tune in here. I’m thinking a lot of plays are gonna end up with Ronde Barber on top of Jason Campbell. Tampa by 10.
Detroit (+2) at Arizona
The loser of this game very well could end up picking first in the 2007 NFL draft. And that kinda makes me want to root for Arizona here. I’d love to see Detroit pick first, just to see if they’d be stupid enough to pick another wide receiver. And, you know, I’m sure Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Jarrett and Ted Ginn Jr. wouldn’t view that prospect with anything approaching the sense of whimsy that I do, but I’m not them. And, let’s face it fellas, the Lions will probably have a shot at one or all of you even if they end up picking fourth, which is about as late as they’re likely to go. Arizona by three.
Indianapolis (-1) at Dallas
Sooner or later, Indianapolis is gonna lose a game. A regular season game, I mean. (We all know the Colts are gonna lose one in the playoffs, because the giant post-season fold is their sine qua non.) And, sure it could come here as easily as anywhere else. Indeed, if it weren’t for the fact that Flozell Adams couldn’t slow down a speed rusher if he were driving a bulldozer, I’d be sorely tempted to pick Dallas. Still wouldn’t, though. Know why? Because it seems like every other week, Indy goes up against some team that can and should beat them, but the Colts still come out ahead. And I’ve decided I’d rather pick the Colts and be wrong once or twice, than continue picking against them and be wrong six or seven more times. Indy by a field goal.
Seattle (-6) at San Francisco
So wait a minute, Senator Feinstein. Your party is preparing to take leadership role in Congress after 12 years of Republican rule and the thing that’s on your mind is stopping a football team from moving (or I guess it’s stopping them from leaving and keeping their name)? Good use of the Senate’s time, Dianne. Well thought out. Makes me real hopeful about the next few years. Real hopeful. As for the game, I don’t know. Something tells me San Francisco’s gonna find a way to win. But I don’t know what that is, and I no longer trust those voices. So I’m taking the Seahawks straight up and expecting the future Santa Clara Software Engineers to keep the margin to three or less.
San Diego (+2.5) at Denver
I’m pretty sure the Chargers are the better team in this matchup. Even without Juicy Juicenstein. I know for a fact that the Chargers are the more balanced team in this game (by virtue of the fact that they have an offense that shows up every week). And if this game were being played in San Diego, I’d take the Chargers without hesitation. But it isn’t (though we’ll get that game December 7). And I just have the sense that Denver’s gonna be able to trick out a win at home. I’ll take the Broncos straight up, but I like the Chargers to keep the difference to a single point.
NY Giants (+3.5) at Jacksonville
You know those guys who say the Giants are too banged up to win this game? I’m one of them. David Garrard rebounds from his horrible showing in week 10 and Jacksonville wins in a rout.
