Week Ten Picks
Midway through the season and if you haven’t figured out I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about yet, it’s because you haven’t been paying attention. Here we go. The road to January officially begins here. And here’s what I do know: there’s a team that has stumbled so far that will win six or seven of its last eight and either just get in or just miss. And there’s a team that’s been hot that will collapse outright. I can’t tell you for certain which team is which, but I do know that the collapse usually happens in Louisiana. Here’s what not to expect this weekend.
Baltimore (-7) at Tennessee
My guess is that when you’re having trouble getting your offense started, the last team in the league you want to see pop up on your schedule is the Baltimore Ravens. Too bad it’s breaking that way for the Titans, but it is. Ravens win by 10.
Buffalo (+11.5) at Indianapolis
I can’t come up with one good reason for even thinking about picking the terrible, awful Buffalo Bills in this game. I did however, come up with three shaky ones. They go like this: Letdown, A-Train and Fins over Bears. So, while I expect to be wrong, I’m taking the Bills in a shocker.
Cleveland (+8) at Atlanta
Take a team that gives up 4.8 yards per carry and send them off to visit a team with the league’s best ground offense and you get what quite possibly may be the quickest game in NFL history. I’m thinking it doesn’t much matter if Mr. Anderson gets the start over ailing Charlie Frye, he still might never see the field. I’m taking Atlanta and giving the points.
Green Bay (+5) at Minnesota
Maybe Minnesota will rediscover the concept of playing offense this week. Maybe it won’t. I have now way of knowing in advance what’ll happen, so I’ll split the difference and take the Vikes to win and the Pack to cover. And I’ll do my best between now and Sunday to come up with a reason why I should care one way or the other.
Houston (+10.5) at Jacksonville
Of course Dave Garrard should be the Jags’ starter. And you know what? That’s all I’ve got to say about this game. Really. Oh, right. Ummm, guess I’ll give the points.
Kansas City (-1) at Miami
You know what’s funny about this game? When I look at it on paper, it kinda looks like maybe Miami could win it. The Dolphins pass better than the Chiefs. They stop the pass better. And they stop the run better. Of course, the Fins don’t have an apparently unstoppable running back who’s on course for a 1,600-yard season. And with the exception of that one big game they haven’t done much other than lose all season. So I’m ignoring what I see on paper and taking Kansas City.
NY Jets (+10.5) at New England
You’d have to be a fool to believe the Patriots can’t possibly lose this game. Yeah, the Pats beat the Jets in the Meadowlands eight weeks ago (at a time when New England’s offense hadn’t quite come together yet). And yeah, the Pats have gone 58 weeks without back-to-back losses. Oh, and there’s the minor fact that the Jets suck. But you know what I can’t stop thinking about? I can’t stop thinking about how Rodney Harrison is out and how if anyone knows what kind of vulnerabilities an injury like that creates in the Patriots’ secondary, it’s Eric Mangini. So, yeah, the Jets could win this game. Could. If only they had even the slightest ability to stop the run. Which they don’t. So while I think New York will find a way to keep it closer than ten and a half, I do expect New England to come out ahead, and, for all intents and purposes, wrap up the division.
San Diego (-1.5) at Cincinnati
How does a team that allows 129 rushing yards per game (4.3 per carry) beat a team with a running back who averages 104 yards per game (4.9 per carry) on the ground all by himself? They either find a way to light it up against a defense that’s missing one juiced-up star or they take a giant hit. I’m expecting to see option two play out, though maybe by half a point less than the oddsmakers want me to believe.
San Francisco (+6) at Detroit
Hey, did you hear the news? The 49ers have found some idiots stupid enough to give them whatever they want to get the team to build a stadium in their community. Just wanted to make sure you knew about that, because it may be the last piece of “good” news you hear regarding the Niners until 2012. Detroit wins. San Francisco covers.
Washington (+7) at Philadelphia
Andy Reid’s Eagles never lose coming off a bye. The Redskins are lucky they’re not 1-7. And that’s the rest of the story. Eagles by six. (And, no, neither of these teams is going to the playoffs.)
Denver (-9) at Oakland
The bad news, I’m afraid, is that we’re all gonna have to endure one more Raiders appearance in prime time this season, when they host Kansas City week 16 (Ho, Ho, Ho, Merry Christmas from your friends in the NFL scheduling office). Watching Oakland play these days is like taking a sharp kick in the nuts. The good news is, nobody has to watch this bloodbath. Denver by 13, minimum.
Dallas (-7) at Arizona
Terry Glenn might not be able to play. And Terrell Owens apparently has forgotten that his job is to catch the ball. That would suck for the Cowboys if it weren’t for the fact that the Cardinals are so adept at beating themselves. I’m guessing Arizona beats itself by about nine this week.
New Orleans (+4) at Pittsburgh
Yeah, that’s what’s going on, Bill. That bum Ike Taylor’s dragging your whole team down. You know, if you really wanna have a chance to win some games, you might try doing something about that addled quarterback you insist on starting every week before he throws another 14 picks. Just a thought. New Orleans wins this one by a field goal.
St. Louis (+3.5) at Seattle
Are the Seahawks who are giving three and a half points in this game the same Seahawks I watched struggle to beat hapless Oakland on Monday night? I mean, I just want to make sure, because I’m a bit thrown by the line on this game. If it is that same Seahawks team (and it would appear it is), then I’m taking St. Louis, with the points or without ’em.
Chicago (+1) at NY Giants
Quick, name four healthy starting wide receivers in this game. Either team. How about four defensive ends? Six linebackers? Get my point? Good. Now you may flip your coin. I’m taking the Giants, mostly because they’re the home team, but also because of the guy who’s preparing to join the pro shuffleboard circuit and because they didn’t just get their asses kicked by a 2-6 team. I won’t be at all surprised if I end up being wrong, though. And if I’m right, I bet it’s a push with the point.
Tampa Bay (+9.5) at Carolina
All the pressure’s on the Panthers here. Carolina can’t really pull itself back into contention with a win over Tampa Bay (unless Atlanta and New Orleans both managed to lose on Sunday, and the Falcons, at least, seem incredibly unlikely to lose), but they can effectively drop out of contention with a loss. My guess is they manage to pull it together, at least temporarily. I’ll take Carolina straight up, Tampa Bay with the points.
