This Football Blog

So this is it. The last week of byes (after which every team in the league will have played eight games). The last week when you can say its premature for the really good teams to talk about playoff seeding. The last week when you can argue it’s premature for the really bad teams to think about draft order. The last week before Sunday night flex scheduling officially kicks in (and it’s already paying huge dividends). The point in the season at which statistics and trends really should tell you most of what you need to know about any given matchup. Only, that last part isn’t working out so well. The only trend that seems to matter so far this season is that just when you think you know something, it turns out you’re wrong. Oh, and since you’re reading this, one other trend: I’m pretty much always wrong about everything. Or nearly everything. So be careful.

Atlanta (-4.5) at Detroit
You know, the thing about Mike Vick is that he just refuses to be defined by conventional standards. I mean, just when you think he’s a one-dimensional player who’s style can’t succeed in the pros, he goes and plays like this and this. And then when you think he’s maybe turning into one of the greats, he’ll go out and play like this or this. And the thing is, as folks who compete against me in fantasy football will gleefully attest, I am entirely incapable of figuring out which Vick is gonna show up when (no matter how hard I try and how much time I commit to analysis of statistics, trends, opposing defenses, fucking tarot cards, you name it). So what I did is I destroyed a lovely, mint condition vintage Twister set to make a Good Michael/Bad Michael spinner. Put it to use for the first time this week and it came up, “Left hand, Good Michael.” I figure that’s gotta be some kind of amazing omen. So I’m taking the raptors to win, though I like Detroit’s chances of keeping it to within three.

Cincinnati (+2) at Baltimore
From the second I first looked at this week’s schedule I’ve known exactly one thing for absolute certain about this game: It’s gonna bite me in the ass no matter which way I pick it. And the more I look at the damned thing, the more certain I am of that. Because nothing, but nothing leads me to believe that the Bengals have even the slightest hope of beating the Ravens in Baltimore. Still, there’s something within me that simply knows Cincinnati is gonna find a way to come out ahead. I don’t know what that thing is, but it’s there. And so, even though I’m picking Baltimore to win by three (and expecting Jamal Lewis finally to have a big game), I’m pretty much expecting to be wrong.

Dallas (-3) at Washington
I hope everyone enjoys Mark Brunell’s last game as a starter. I mean, I’m pretty sure the Redskins and their fans won’t, but, you know, everyone else. I’m not sure the Cowboys cover (maybe it’s a push) but I’m pretty confident picking them to win.

Green Bay (+3.5) at Buffalo
Green Bay has found a winning formula somehow. Buffalo has lost it. Makes this pick kinda easy if you ask me. Or I could put it like this: In a matchup of one-dimensional teams, I like Green Bay’s offense slightly better than Buffalo’s defense so I’m taking the Pack to win it straight up.

Houston (+13) at NY Giants
I suppose if you can beat Tampa Bay by 14, you ought to be able to beat Houston by 13, right? That’s about what I can come up with, anyhow. My guess is it stays close through the first quarter and possibly through the first half until the Giants remember that they do, in fact, need a win here. Then Eli and the Giants receivers come on, and the thing is over by the end of the third. Giants 27, Houston 10.

Kansas City (+2) at St. Louis
Last weeks 35-28 victory over Seattle pushed the Chiefs record vs. NFC West opponents this season to 3-0. (Kansas City is just 1-3 vs. AFC opponents), so this game represents not only a chance for the Chiefs to capture the Missouri state championship for the next four years (barring an all-Missouri Super Bowl sometime between now and 2010, which seems rather unlikely), but to complete a season sweep of their 2006 NFC rivals. That, of course, means all of nothing. In fact, the only way this game becomes meaningful beyond how it affects the teams’ records is if the NFC West title comes down to tie-breaker number three, which is record against common opponents (comes after head-to-head record and division record). A win here would put St. Louis at 4-1 against the two teams’ non-division common opponents from the AFC West and NFC North, with a home game against Chicago and trips to Oakland and Minnesota in its future. Assuming Seattle beats Oakland Monday night (hardly a stretch), they’d be 2-3 against common opponents with home games against Green Bay and San Diego and a trip to Denver in the offing. That would appear to favor St. Louis (you know, so long as the Rams can win at Seattle next week and pull even in a division race in which they currently trail the Hawks by two games. ) All of which is to say, well, another big bunch of nothing, really. (Sorry for the time suckage, but once I started down this road I wasn’t turning back.) Kansas City runs the ball and stops the run better, so I’m taking them to win by a field goal in what I expect to be a fairly high-scoring affair.

Miami (+13) at Chicago
Daunte Culpepper? Joey Harrington? Cleo Lemon? Shit, man, it’s starting to look like the next quarterback to manage a successful campaign for the Miami Dolphins could be Brady Quinn. I’d happily give four touchdowns to the Fins here; not quite two is nothing short of a gimme.

New Orleans (-1) at Tampa Bay
It’s the “they’re gonna nail us no matter what we do” follies part two. The only way I have a snowball’s chance in hell of picking this game right is to pick the exact opposite of what I think is gonna happen. The trouble is, I don’t know what to think is gonna happen. The Bucs are playing better football than they were a month ago when New Orleans was only able to beat them by three points in the Superdome, but Tampa Bay still isn’t playing particularly well on either side of the ball. Not consistently anyhow. New Orleans overall is the better team, but this is a division game, on the road, and the Saints are coming off a pretty brutal loss (look at the numbers, it wasn’t as close as the final score/stats imply) and there’s still no saying for sure just how much hot sauce Bart Scott put on Reggie Bush’s ankle. (And what kind. I mean if it was just your standard issue Tabaski, that’s one thing, but what if it was something more powerful, something hot as shit? That could present a whole range of long-term problems.) Still, my gut tells me New Orleans will find a way to win this game. That’s why I’m picking Tampa Bay, and giving the points. Because that’s how much I don’t trust my gut these days, especially on this game (and extra especially when hot sauce enters the deal).

Tennessee (+10) at Jacksonville
Two questions: How long will it be until the delightful Pacman Jones graduates to something even more reprehensible (whatever that might be)? And will the NFL actually pretend to care this time around? Two guesses: Sooner than later. And probably not. Oh, meanwhile there’s a game. And it appears the Jaguars aren’t going to pretend no to know who their starting quarterback will be this time around. I suppose there’s no real point in keeping it a secret this week. Jags by 14.

Minnesota (-5) at San Francisco
Bench Brad Johnson? Bench Brad Johnson? After one bad game — against New England? Are there really Minnesota fans who believe their team is better off with Brooks Bollinger under center? Or that Tavaris Jackson is ready to start in the NFL. Because neither of those things is true. Fortunately for the Vikings, it appears that Brad Childress, if no one else, knows it. So Johnson remains the starter and the Vikings beat the 49ers by a touchdown.

Cleveland (+12.5) at San Diego
I believe ya, Shawne. Really, I do. I mean, it’s not like you’ve been so freaky good that no one could possibly suspect you of cheating or anything, right? You know what would be nice? If professional athletes who get caught using steroids would stop insulting everybody’s fucking intelligence by boo-hooing and denying they did anything wrong. Yes, guys, ya did, and most of us will never ever believe you didn’t know it. And you know what, Shawne? Even if all you really are guilty of is abject stupidity, that’s more than enough, because you’re supposed to be a professional, you ought to know better, and you’re team is gonna pay the price. Not this week. Because between your defense handling Cleveland’s stunningly inexplosive offense even without you and LT likely ripping off another three touchdown outing, your team should have no trouble not only winning, but covering. But come next week in Cincinnati and especially the following week in Denver, Mr. Merriman, your absence is gonna be felt. And if the Chargers lose those two games and then just miss the playoffs, I hope you’ll realize that it’s on you.

Denver (+2.5) at Pittsburgh
I’m still waiting for someone to explain to me how a team that’s playing as poorly as Pittsburgh is favored to beat a team that’s playing as well as Denver by any margin, in any stadium, at any time. And since I don’t expect to get a reasonable explanation for the handicappers’ pick here prior to kickoff, I’m going with the Broncos (though I hope I’m wrong, since the Steelers are cooked and I’d love to see Denver take a loss).

Indianapolis (+3) at New England
Lots of folks expect this game to come down to the final play. And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they turned out to be right. But I simply don’t see it going that way. My guess is that this game will be decided in the first quarter, if not in the first two or three possessions. My feeling is that if the Colts don’t come out of the first quarter with a lead of at least 14 points, they’ve got no hope of winning. And the way I see things going, I’ve got a feeling the Colts may actually find themselves trailing by that margin before the first period concludes. The Colts may be 7-0 coming in, but they’ve got a major weakness that absolutely everyone knows about: they can’t stop the run. More than that, they can’t even begin to stop the run. Indy’s run defense is the worst in the league, allowing 168 yards per game (5.7 per carry). This despite the fact that they’ve frequently found themselves defending big leads. And while Indy’s pass D looks good on paper if you just look at yards per game (they’ve allowed only 167 on average), it drops to just above mediocre if you consider yards per attempt (6.54), and lower still if you take a look at the fact that the Colts have allowed 10 passing touchdowns in seven games. It doesn’t take too much work, then, to figure out that a significant contributor to the fact that the Colts haven’t allowed many yards in the air is the fact that opponents haven’t really needed to throw the ball against them. And good teams don’t throw when they don’t have to throw. All that considered, I don’t expect the Patriots to have a very difficult time scoring in this game. The Patriots may just be getting their passing game together, but they’ve still managed 215 yards per game in the air. They managed 372 yards passing Monday night in Minnesota (against a team that plays largely the same defense as the Colts). And, most important, they’ve scored 14 passing touchdowns so far this season. That’s tied for third most in the league. You’ve got to like the chances of New England’s wide receivers scoring against that Indy pass D. And then, pile on top of that the fact that Indy’s horrible run D faces a New England ground attack that’s been good for 125 yards per game (four yards per carry) and seven TDs. The Colts, who haven’t run the ball well this season, can’t expect to have much success against a Patriots run D that’s ranked third in the league. So, as usual, if the Colts are gonna win, they’re gonna have to do it passing. That worked well (or as well as Indy needed it to) against Denver last week, but Indianapolis won’t see the kind of defensive looks from New England that it saw from Denver. The Broncos linebackers and corners have been lining up five and six yards off the line of scrimmage this season, which has worked well in general, but which gave the Colts the opportunity to throw underneath coverage. The Patriots will play their corners closer to the line and those corners will harass Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne from the moment they come across (which should be enough to cause Bill Polian to have a stroke). That combined with the current field conditions in Foxborough should limit what the Colts’ WRs are able to accomplish. I don’t expect the Pats to be able to shut down the Colts’ passing game, of course. That would be impossible. But I do expect them to be able to limit it somewhat. And that should be all New England needs to do, since the Colts can’t win this game on the ground. Indy absolutely has to force a shootout if it hopes to win. Trouble is, under the current circumstances, even that favors the Patriots. So as I said at the start of this thing, my guess is that unless the Colts can break out a huge lead early, huge enough to outright force the Pats to go away from the run, they almost can’t come out ahead. And since I don’t see the Colts getting that big lead, I don’t see them winning. I’ll take the Patriots and give the points.

Oakland (+7.5) at Seattle
This one’s easy. I’m not expecting Seneca Wallace to throw four picks or the Oakland defense to contribute two touchdowns (one maybe, but not two), so I’m not expecting Seattle to lose. I’ll take my chances on the Raiders defense to keep it closer than seven and a half, but that’s as far as I’m willing to go.