This Football Blog

Take a look at this. With some AFC teams facing the (outside) possibility of going 11-5 and missing the playoffs (and a number of them looking at the possibility of sitting out the postseason after a 10-6 finish), here’s the situation in the miserable NFC West: It appears very likely that a 7-9 team will win the division — that’s win the division with a losing record — and possible that the Arizona Cardinals, now 4-8, could be that team. Let’s look at the records and upcoming of the “best” teams in the division (actually, all the teams except San Francisco, which at 1-11 is too horrible to contend even in the NFC).

St. Louis, 6-6: at Carolina, at Arizona, Philadelphia, NY Jets

Seattle, 6-6: at Minnesota, at NY Jets, Arizona, Atlanta

Arizona, 4-8: San Francisco, St. Louis, at Seattle, Tampa Bay

Now, while it’s hard to predict what might happen in week 17 (will Atlanta be in a position to rest its starters and take a loss at Seattle?) it’s entirely possible that both St. Louis and Seattle will lose to three of their upcoming opponents. If they both do that, but each team beats Arizona, the team that wins the tie-breaker (St. Louis) will be the division champ. If, on the other hand, Arizona can find a way to beat both teams (the Cards have already beaten the Seahawks once this season, and while they lost to the Rams, that was back in week one, and it wasn’t exactly a blowout), and both St. Louis and Seattle lose the rest of their games (which, again, is a distinct possibility), then all Arizona would need to do would be to win one of its other two matchups (like the one this weekend with San Francisco) and it would finish 7-9, winning the division over 6-10 Seattle and St. Louis.

I recognize this is all completely speculative and fairly unlikely. But the mere fact that it’s a possibility is astounding. And absurd.

So, you know, given that I go ahead and make picks every week without knowing fuck-all about football, I’m thinking maybe I should go ahead and review the week, because, what the hell, I don’t know anything more now than I did then, so I might as well keep running my mouth. Here’s what you maybe didn’t see this week.

Arizona (+5.5) at Detroit
I said: Take the Lions and give the points.
The final was: Detroit 26, Arizona 12
So what happened? Well, as I predicted, Arizona’s quarterback du jour Josh Navarre had himself a miserable day, going 18 for 40 with one touchdown and four interceptions (i.e. he completed one pass to a defender for every four and half he got to his own teammates). And, also as predicted, Lions running back Kevin Jones had a huge day, rushing for 196 yards on 26 carries (that’s as many yards on the ground as Detroit QB Joey Harrington had in the air), and scoring a touchdown. Bring on the next victim under center in Arizona.

Atlanta (+2) at Tampa Bay
I said: Take the Falcons and the points.
The final was: Tampa Bay 27, Atlanta 0
So what happened? I correctly predicted that the Bucs would score some points and that they’d shut down the Falcons’ passing attack (Atlanta quarterback Michael Vick went 13 of 27 for 115 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions). But I thought Vick’s ability to run would make the difference. It didn’t. Vick ran eight times for 81 yards, which ain’t bad for a quarterback, but it did no good. And Vick’s two fumbles (making for four turnovers in all), sealed the deal for Tampa. The Bucs remain in the playoff hunt, and the Falcons are still gonna win their division (they’ll likely clinch this week when they host Oakland), but they clearly don’t have what it takes to get far in the postseason.

Buffalo (-3) at Miami
I said: Take the Bills and give the points.
The final was: Buffalo 42, Miami 32
So what happened? I thought running back Willis McGahee would have a big day and propel resurgent Buffalo to a big win. McGahee had a so-so day (91 yards on 23 carries with a lost fumble and no scores), and it was actually quarterback Drew Bledsoe (19 for 30 for 277 yards and four touchdowns) who carried his team to victory. You still would have won the bet.

Carolina (+1.5) at New Orleans
I said: Take the Panthers and the point and a half.
The final was: Carolina 32, New Orleans 21
So what happened? As predicted, the Saints’ 32nd ranked D couldn’t stop the Panthers in the air (294 yards) or on the ground (132 yards). Carolina had trouble finishing its drives, relying on kicker John Kasay (six field goals) for most of its scoring (which won’t work when they host the Rams this week), but it was enough.

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Baltimore
I said: Take the Ravens and give the points.
The final was: Cincinnati 27, Baltimore 26
So what happened? I correctly predicted a humiliating finish to this game; I just got which team was gonna be humiliated. The Ravens, who gave us 382 yards in the air, are still the front-runner for the last AFC spot in the playoffs, but with a two-game losing streak going and Indianapolis and Pittsburgh both still on their schedule, their hold on that spot is tenuous at best.

Houston (+6.5) at NY Jets
I said: Take the Jets to win, the Texans to cover.
The final was: New York 29, Houston 7
So what happened? I said the Jets run D would stuff the Texans, and it did; Houston had only 93 total yards on the ground. I said Jets running back Curtis Martin would get back to form, and he did; Curtis had 134 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, and 20 yards and a touchdown on four receptions. But I also said Jets quarterback Chad Pennington would be rusty, which would keep Houston close. Pennington went 20 for 27 for 155 yards and two touchdowns. That ain’t a career day, but it ain’t a bad one either. The Jets travel to Pittsburgh next week for a game that can’t turn out badly for the Patriots. So that’s nice.

Minnesota (-7) at Chicago
I said: Take the Vikings and give the points.
The final was: Chicago 24, Minnesota 14
So what happened? Well, I got this much right: I said the game would be decided by 10 or more. Here’s where I went wrong: First, I thought Minnesota running back Onterrio Smith would have a huge day against a Bears defense that had been giving up major rushing yards. He didn’t (13 carries for 79 yards). Second, I thought Chicago’s new quarterback Chad Hutchinson would performer poorly in his debut. He didn’t (18 for 30, 213 yards, three touchdowns). Third, I thought the Vikings were a legitimate contender. They aren’t. And if they manage to lose to the Seahawks at home this week, while they won’t be officially eliminated (it’s all but impossible to be officially eliminated in the NFC), they’ll pretty much have officially blown any chance of looking like they’ll ever be anything but a perennial choke team.

New England (-9.5) at Cleveland
I said: Take the Pats and give the points.
The final was: New England 42, Cleveland 15
So what happened? One can hardly get excited about having pegged this one right. Cleveland is in a major tailspin and the Pats are looking like the best team in football. So the Browns did just about everything wrong and the Pats did just about everything right. Academic.

San Francisco (+10.5) at St. Louis
I said: Take the Rams straight up, the Niners with the points.
The final was: St. Louis 16, San Francisco 6
So what happened? Neither team played well, but one of them had to win it. So the team that went in 5-6 came out 6-6 and the team that went in 1-10 came out 1-11. And no one was the least bit surprised.

Tennessee (+10.5) at Indianapolis
I said: Take the Colts and give the points.
The final was: Indianapolis 51, Tennessee 24
So what happened? The Titans’ 11th-ranked (going in) defense did manage to pick off Colts quarterback Peyton Manning twice, which cut down on Manning’s stats ever so slightly (he ended up with only425 yards and three touchdowns). They also held Colts running back Edgerrin James to a mere 105 yards and two touchdowns. Yup. Big day for Tennessee-ya-next-season.

Denver (+3) at San Diego
I said: Take the Chargers and give the points.
The final was: San Diego 20, Denver 17
So what happened? I said Denver running back Reuben Droughns wouldn’t be a factor against San Diego’s stifling run defense and I was mostly right. Droughns gained just 38 yards and one touchdown on 14 carries (he also had four catches for 35 yards). I also said Denver was in a tailspin, and I was mostly right there, too. The Broncos couldn’t get anything going on offense, largely because quarterback Jake Plummer kept throwing the ball to San Diego defensive backs. But I said San Diego was on fire and while they have been and likely will be again, they weren’t yesterday. Lucky for them they’re at home again next week against an uneven Tampa Bay team.

Kansas City (+1.5) at Oakland
I said: Take Oakland and the points.
The final was: Kansas City 34, Oakland 27
So what happened? Raiders quarterback Kerry Collins didn’t make too many mistakes, but he and Chiefs QB Trent Green pretty much canceled each other out (Collins was 27 for 41 for 340 yards and three touchdowns; Green was 23 for 35 for 343 yards, three touchdowns and one pick). But Chiefs running back Larry Johnson had four times as many yards on the ground as the entire Raiders running back corps. And the Raiders defense Bucknered one of the easiest fucking tackles in the history of easy tackles, which kinda keeps you from winning games in the NFL.

Green Bay (+6) at Philadelphia
I said: Take the Eagles straight up, the Packers with the points.
The final was: Philadelphia 47, Green Bay 17
So what happened? I said the Eagles would have a tough time stopping Ahman Green. I was wrong. The Eagles were able to stop Green (11 carries for 37 yards) for all of the quarter and a third in which he was an option. After that, they didn’t have to worry, because they were so far ahead the Packers had no choice but to stick to the air. I speculated that Green Bay would be effective against Brian Westbrook, which they were … on the ground. In the air, however, Westbrook had a big day (11 catches for 156 yards and three touchdowns, as compared to his 12 carries for 37 yards and no scores), as did Terrell Owens (eight catches for 161 yards). So I got the straight up result right, and I was off on the final score (I said Philly would win by three) by a mere factor of 10.

NY Giants (+2) at Washington
I said: Take the Redskins straight up, the Giants to cover.
The final was: Washington 31, New York 7
So what happened? As I predicted, the Redskins’ powerful run defense was able to shut down Tiki Barber (15 carries for 38 yards) and, with Eli Manning still soaking wet behind the ears, that was all they needed to do. And, hell, no one knew the Redskins could score 31 points in a game; they hadn’t come anywhere close to that all season. By the way, don’t expect Tiki and the Giants to fare much better against Baltimore’s D this week.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Jacksonville
I said: Take the Steelers and give the points.
The final was: Pittsburgh 17, Jacksonville 16
So what happened? I said Jacksonville would give Pittsburgh a game, and they did, losing when a 60-yard kick went right by like a foot at the very end of regulation. I thought Pittsburgh would pull it out by a little more than a point, though. With luck, they’ll drop one of these close games soon enough.

Dallas (+7) at Seattle
I said: Take the Seahawks straight up, expect a push against the spread.
The final was: Dallas 43, Seattle 39
So what happened? I’d say the Seahawks are in full-on collapse if it weren’t for the fact that quarterback Matt Hasselbeck threw for 414 yards and three TDs and running back Shaun Alexander ran for two more scores. Dallas’ rookie RB Julius Jones was most of the difference, going 198 with three TDs on 30 carries. That’s not necessarily good news for the Cowboys. Yeah, Jones is amazing, but 30 carries a game, while it may work for the remainder of this season, isn’t sustainable over the long term. They’ve gotta find more weapons. Seattle, meanwhile, though 6-6, remains at first in the NFC West, which really tells the story of how bad the NFC is. Sadder still: It’s entirely possible, with Seattle at Minnesota and St. Louis at Carolina, that week 14 will close with a team with a losing record on top of that division. (And there’s the possibility that a 10-6 team in the AFC will miss the playoffs.)

Would someone please inform the NFL (and the NBA) that the question is not whether people bet on sports, but how people bet on sports. Legalizing sports betting in Atlantic City will only change who takes in all the money and how people who can’t pay their gambling debts are treated — i.e. whether they get taken to court or into an alley somewhere. Trust me, folks, anyone who wants to bet on a football game right now can do it. Easily. It’s easier to gamble than it is to buy illegal drugs, and it’s unbelievably easy to buy drugs. (And in case you’re contemplating asking me, “Well, shouldn’t we just go ahead and legalize drugs?” Yes. My answer is yes. Prohibition is stupid and ineffective.)

I love this statement from Jay Moyer, NFL Special Counsel: “Sporting events should be appreciated for the athleticism and entertainment value, not as gambling devices.” How about both, Jay? Because that’s what happens. And you and your employers know it damned well. This part’s better, though: “Legalizing betting on sports is the wrong message to send to younger sports fans.” And what about the misogyny and homophobia the NFL tolerates from coaches and players? Is that the right message? The spouse and girlfriend abuse? The steroid use? Or, hey, how about the way professional sports are used to push alcohol? Is that good for the kids? Or the way the NFL’s use of college football as a farm system has undermined the educational standards of universities from coast to coast? Is that sending a better message?

I guess what I’m saying is that, yeah, I know it’s their job and everything, that they have to take an official position in opposition to legal sports gambling, but, shit, the NFL (and the NBA, too) has a lot of nerve telling others what sports should and shouldn’t be for.

OK, OK, on to the useless picks. Here are mine. Lots of emphasis on the run — and consequently on run defense — from here on out. Here’s how I see it (with the usual caution about how I’m almost always wrong):

Arizona (+5.5) at Detroit
I used to think Dennis Green was a smart football coach. Then, just as Arizona’s offense appeared to be heating up, he started this ongoing game of musical quarterbacks, benching Josh McCown, who’d played well for three games before he was told to sit, in favor of Shaun King, who came in and sucked like crazy, and then moving on to rookie QB John Navarre. And, yeah, the kid’s getting his first start against Detroit, not exactly a powerhouse D, but I’m still not expecting too much. Add to that the fact that the Cards are almost entirely incapable of run defense (they’ve given up 150 or more yards on the ground five times this season and are 27th overall against the run) and you get yourself a nice day for Detroit RB Kevin Jones and a win for the Lions. I’d go ahead and give the five and a half, too.

Atlanta (+2) at Tampa Bay
Here’s an upset in the making (though, obviously, not a major one). Tampa Bay should score some points; Atlanta’s tough against the run, but not so tough against the pass. And Michael Vick will have trouble finding open receivers given the skill Tampa Bay brings to its Cover 2 defense. The trouble for the Bucs, though, is that they’re miserable against the run, which isn’t good news when Vick is in town. You can shut down receivers all day, but it doesn’t do you any good if the opposing quarterback just takes off for 10 or 20 yards when he can’t find anyone. I like the Falcons to clinch their division with a three- or four-point victory here.

Buffalo (-3) at Miami
Ignore the “it’s tough to do all that traveling” bullshit they’re peddling in regard to Buffalo here. First of all, yeah, the Bills did play in Seattle last week and now has to travel to Miami, but the Fins were on the West Coast for two straight weeks coming into this, so they can’t exactly be feeling fresh. Second, and more important, the Bills are so much better than the Dolphins they could travel to fucking Bangkok Friday, spend the weekend in opium dens and whore houses, catch the redeye to Miami overnight Saturday/Sunday (you know, the famous Thailand-to-Florida express), take two hours to sleep and sober up a bit before the game, and still stomp all over the Fins’ shit. It’s that simple. Buffalo, by the way, put up 75 points in their last two games. Miami managed 41, 24 of which came against San Francisco, the worst team in the league (worse than Miami by exactly one loss — to Miami). And playing against Miami’s 29th ranked run D should make Willis McGahee’s day. So what I’m saying is, yes, take the Bills and give the points. Just do what I say.

Carolina (+1.5) at New Orleans
Here comes another minor upset by a road team. I don’t care what your offense does, when your defense is ranked 32nd against the pass, 32nd against the run, and 32nd overall (as the Saints’ D is), you don’t win football games. And Carolina is the best 4-7 team in the league. Take the Panthers and the point and a half.

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Baltimore
The Ravens have to know they can’t afford to take a loss here. They got beat up pretty bad by the Patriots last week, and that’s gotta stick with you, but they simply have to rebound and win this one, because they’re schedule going forward ain’t easy (they’ve got the Giants next week, which should be no big problem, but then they’re at Indy and at Pittsburgh) and they’ve gotta make 10-6 if they’re gonna have a shot at the playoffs. By the time this one’s over, Cincinnati’s gonna wish they could apply some of their extra points from last week’s 58-48 victory over the Browns to this one just to make it a bit less humiliating. Take the Ravens and give the points.

Houston (+6.5) at NY Jets
Two things about this game: First, the Jets defense is ranked sixth against the run. Second, Chad Pennington is back under center for New York. That first bit is the difference. The second could actually hurt if Pennington’s rushing back too soon or if the weather conditions at Giants Stadium make it tough for him to find a groove. Look for Curtis Martin to pick up where he left off a few weeks back and to carry his team to a close victory, which is to say, take the Jets straight up, Houston with the points.

Minnesota (-7) at Chicago
If the Bears gave up 204 yards to Edgerrin James two weeks ago and 150 to Julius Jones last week, how many do you think they’ll give up to Onterrio Smith this week? With Randy Moss back to full strength and demanding coverage, my guess is that it’ll edge up toward Edge’s numbers. Meanwhile, let’s see if Chicago’s latest QB, Chad Hutchinson, is able to get anything done against even Minnesota’s less-than-stellar defense. My guess is that he won’t be. I like the Vikings by 10 or more.

New England (-9.5) at Cleveland
A shakeup at head coach. A new guy under center. A tough loss in a high-scoring game with a division rival just behind you. And the hot, hot, hot defending champs coming to town. None of that bodes well for Cleveland. Look for the Pats to force Cleveland to run the ball (not exactly a chore for the New England D) and to stuff Lee Suggs and William Green at the line repeatedly. Take the Pats, and, yeah, go ahead and give the points. The Pats are murdering teams these days. (Prediction within a prediction: I say this is the week when Troy Brown scores his first defensive touchdown.)

San Francisco (+10.5) at St. Louis
I don’t know what it is, but something tells me the hot-and-cold Rams are headed back to hot this weekend. Oh, wait, I do know: It’s the Niners’ 1-10 record. Take St. Louis straight up, but don’t give in to the temptation to give those points. The Rams defense is 31st against the run and 28th against the pass, so even San Francisco should be able to keep the difference to a touchdown or less.

Tennessee (+10.5) at Indianapolis
The Titans, for all their problems, have a pretty good defense. It’s ranked 11th overall. Today, anyhow. Come Monday they should be sitting at something more like 15th or 16th. Take the Colts and give the damned points. With little to no help from the offense, even the best D’s not gonna be able to keep up with Peyton Manning and crew.

Denver (+3) at San Diego
You don’t run the ball on San Diego, so forget about Reuben Droughns in this one. And, you know what? Just go ahead and forget about the Broncos in this one. Denver’s in a tailspin after getting bested by the Raiders Sunday night. And the Chargers are on fire. Take San Diego and give the points.

Kansas City (+1.5) at Oakland
Watching the Raiders beat the Broncos Sunday night, one could only conclude that the team is starting to get Norv Turner’s system. It’s too little too late, of course, but it does come just in time for the Raiders to host the 3-8 Chiefs, who will either be starting a seriously banged up Trent Green or a backup QB, Todd Collins, who’s spent time on the field in all of nine games during his seven years with the team. So, barring some major mistakes by quarterback Kerry Collins (who can make some major mistakes), the Raiders should be able to top the Chiefs, shoring up their third-place finish in the AFC West (whoohoo). I like Oakland by three.

Green Bay (+6) at Philadelphia
Philadelphia could get surprised here. The Eagles are gonna have a tough time stopping Ahman Green (or, if something goes wrong with Ahman’s plans to return to the field on Sunday, Najeh Davenport). And the Packers have been playing very well against the run of late. If they’re able to take Brian Westbrook out of the game, and if they can put up some points early, then they force the Eagles to keep it in the air and make Terrell Owens and Donovan McNabb try to win the game on their own. The problem with that, of course, is that McNabb and Owens are capable of doing just that. And they’re at home. Take the Eagles straight up, but look for the Pack to keep it to within a field goal.

NY Giants (+2) at Washington
Tiki Barber is not gonna be able to carry the day for the Giants here. Washington isn’t a very good team, but that’s just because they can’t seem to score. The Skins are very good at run D (ranked third in the league, in fact), so unless Eli Manning finds the magic Manning thing in an awful hurry, the Giants are gonna have a tough time here. I’m taking the Redskins, though I’d neither give nor take the points here (take the Giants to cover if you must do something, but plan to take a hit).

Pittsburgh (-3) at Jacksonville
It’s nice to think Jacksonville could pull off the upset here. And they could. The Jaguars do play well against the run, which could force Pittsburgh’s rookie QB, Ben Roethlisberger, to throw more than 25 times (and no one knows what happens when he gets up to 30 or more). But you can’t go around picking against Pittsburgh these days. You just can’t. So go safe, pick the favorite and give the points.

Dallas (+7) at Seattle
Don’t expect the Seahawks to sit still for the same kind of beating they took from Buffalo last week. They’ll make Dallas pay for that. Take the Hawks straight up. Against the spread it’s a push.