This Football Blog

I can only assume at this point that if there’s anyone here, it’s to find out how not to pick this week’s games.

I had yet another miserable showing in week three, wrapping up 9-7 straight up and 5-11 against the spread. I’m pretty sure I’m never climbing out of the hole I’ve dug this season. Through the first three weeks, I stand at 24-24 (.500) straight up and 18-29-1 (.385) with the points. And I’m heading into the weekend 1-0 and 0-1. So it looks like more of the same.

Here’s what not to expect through Monday night.

Washington (-1.5) at Atlanta
Wasn’t Brand X supposed to be headed in the right direction this season? The Falcons, at least, are pretty much what we thought they were. Not good. Washington by three.

Houston (+17.5) at Buffalo
The thing about huge spreads in the NFL is that there are just too many factors that can get in the way. The good team slows down the game. The bad one picks up meaningless points in garbage time. The Bills could probably win this game by 35 if they wanted to. But I’m not giving three scores. I’ll say Buffalo by 16.

Detroit (+3) at Chicago
I don’t think the Bears are one bit better than the Lions. But the Bears are at home. So I suppose there’s that. Chicago by a point.

Carolina (+4) at Dallas
I’m fairly confident the Panthers D can slow down the Cowboys offense. But stop them? In Dallas? Not so much. Cowboys by a field goal.

Indianapolis (+2.5) at Miami
Neither of these teams is going much of anywhere. But the Dolphins at least look like they’e prepared to play professional football some of the time. That’s got to be some kind of advantage. Miami by four.

Cleveland (-1) at Minnesota
I don’t know that there’s much of a difference between these two teams. So I’m taking the one that’s playing at home. Vikings by three.

NY Giants (+7) at New Orleans
I keep thinking the Giants have to be better than they look on paper. And then I keep having to ask myself why they hell I insist on thinking that while all evidence suggests the opposite. Saints by 10.

Tennessee (-6) at NY Jets
The Jets have scored 20 total points through three games. Titans by 14.

Kansas City (-6.6) at Philadelphia
Kansas City may struggle through the entire season. Or they may come around at some point. In either scenario, they should be able to win this game. KC by seven.

Arizona (+4) at LA Rams
If the Rams could make the Buccaneers offense one dimensional, they ought to be able to do the same to the Cardinals. Los Angeles by three.

Seattle (+2.5) at San Francisco
It might be time to stop believing the 2021 Seahawks are bound to find their groove. San Francisco by four.

Baltimore (-1) at Denver
The Broncos to date have played no one. Ravens by six.

Pittsburgh (-6) at Green Bay
More often than not, this is the way great NFL careers end. Packers by a touchdown.

Tampa Bay (-7) at New England
What you may have missed if you spent the week thinking about Brady vs. Belichick is that this game involves two complete football teams. The fact that the Patriots are better coached than the Buccaneers could be a factor, sure. The fact that the Bucs offense is led by the greatest quarterback of all time should be a factor. But the biggest factor is likely to be that the Patriots, as of week four, are not ready to challenge the defending Super Bowl champions. That’s the long and short of it. Buccaneers by six.

Las Vegas (+3) at LA Chargers
The Chargers are ever so slightly more impressive at 2-1 than the Raiders are at 3-0. Los Angeles by a point.

I damned near forgot there was a game tonight. Probably because there kind of isn’t.

Jacksonville (+7.5) at Cincinnati
Bengals by 14.

I’m off to an even uglier than usual start picking football games this season. I followed my spectacular week one — 6-10 straight up, 8-8 against the spread — with a magnificent week two, 9-7 straight up, 5-10-1 with the points.

That works out to 15-17 (.469) straight up, 13-18-1 (.422) against the spread.

But I’m sure my 1-0 start across the board in week three means I’m on the verge of righting the ship. Probably.

Here’s what not to expect in the remainder of this week’s games.

Washington (+7.5) at Buffalo
This is what makes picking football games early in the season close to impossible. Thus far, neither of these teams appears to be what we expected. But every team is going to have an outlier game or two at some point in a season, and if they come early, they make a muddle of your perceptions. I suspect that if this game were being played in November, I wouldn’t hesitate to give the seven and a half. Right now? Bills by four.

Chicago (+7) at Cleveland
The Browns should not only win but cover with relative ease. So you know they won’t. Cleveland by a field goal.

Baltimore (-8) at Detroit
It’s reasonable to expect a bit of a letdown game for the Ravens. It’s not reasonable to think the Lions can capitalize. Baltimore by 10.

Indianapolis (+5) at Tennessee
I’m not at all sure what to make of the Titans. But I know the Colts are foundering. Tennessee by six.

LA Chargers (+6.5) at Kansas City
The Chiefs sure look to me like a team suffering from a hangover. But I don’t think they’re done fighting quite yet. Kansas City puts up the winning points late in what I expect to be a banger. Chiefs by a point.

New Orleans (+3) at New England
Two years ago, this matchup would have been played in primetime, and we’d have gone in expecting an airshow. this season it’s reasonable to expect a fairly low-scoring affair featuring enough missed opportunities to drive fans of both teams crazy. The home team tacks on a late field goal that makes its victory appear less narrow. New England by six.

Atlanta (+3) at NY Giants
There have been moments this season when both the Falcons and the Giants have looked kind of OK. Moments. New Jersey by four.

Cincinnati (+3) at Pittsburgh
This game doesn’t look like much, but its outcome could have meaningful implications for the 2022 draft. Steelers by six.

Arizona (-7.5) at Jacksonville
You may find this shocking, but the Jaguars are not very good. At all. Cardinals by nine.

NY Jets (+10.5) at Denver
You may find this shocking, but the Jets … . Oh, did I just use this line about the Jaguars? Crap! Broncos by 17.

Miami (+4) at Las Vegas
As the season goes on, fans in New England are going to become more and more unhappy about the Patriots’ week one gift to the visiting Dolphins. Raiders by seven.

Tampa Bay (-1.5) at LA Rams
It might be that the 2021 Rams feature a strong pass defense. And if that’s really the case, this could prove a difficult matchup for a Bucs offense that has been getting it done mostly through the air thus far this season. Or it might be that the Rams have yet to face a team with a productive passing attack. I suspect we’ll have a clear picture by halftime. Tampa by three.

Seattle (-1.5) at Minnesota
There’s a part of me that has already come to the conclusion that the Vikings are never turning this season around. It’s the part that’s writing this pick. Seattle by four.

Green Bay (+3.5) at San Francisco
Last week’s results may have raised hopes in Green Bay. But I don’t live in Green Bay. Niners by a touchdown.

Philadelphia (+4) at Dallas
Yeah, the Cowboys are probably the better team. And that will probably show in the final standings. But this is still a division game. And the Eagles are still in the fight. Dallas wins (late) by three.

Carolina (-8) at Houston
I may have mentioned this once or twice before (or if I didn’t, someone else did and I internalized it), but, um, quarterback is kind of an important position in football. Not having one is not good. Not having one and having to play on short rest is bad. Panthers by 14.

Cincinnati (+2.5) at Chicago
The Bengals figured out that Andy Dalton isn’t an NFL QB. You have to imagine the Bears will get there, too, sooner than later. But not soon enough. Cincinnati by a touchdown.

Houston (+13) at Cleveland
The Browns can’t let another game slip away. The Texans should make achieving that goal fairly simple. Cleveland by 17.

LA Rams (-3.5) at Indianapolis
I don’t know. I think the Colts can keep this one competitive. For a quarter. Maybe a half. Rams by 10.

Buffalo (-3.5) at Miami
The Bills aren’t likely to commit the types of mental errors that cost the Patriots a win over the Dolphins in week one. Then again, division rivals, Miami in the heat of what is still the summer … . Dolphins by a point.

New England (-6) at NY Jets
The Patriots aren’t likely to give away a second straight game, particularly not to a team that’s considerably weaker than the one they lost to a week ago. But six seems like a lot to give in a divisional road game. I’m thinking New England by four.

San Francisco (-3) at Philadelphia
The Niners are probably the better team. But maybe not by enough to overcome the challenges that come with traveling across the country to play an early game. Eagles by a point.

Las Vegas (+6.5) at Pittsburgh
In Vegas, this game goes to the Raiders. In Pittsburgh, probably not. Steelers by three.

New Orleans (-3) at Carolina
When do we start having conversations about whether Drew Brees really was all that good? Asking for a bunch of friends in New England and Tampa. Saints by seven.

Denver (-6) at Jacksonville
Maybe the Jaguars will win a game or two late in the season. Maybe. Broncos by 14.

Minnesota (+3.5) at Arizona
I didn’t see anything from the Vikings last week to make me think they can keep this game as close as three and a half. Cardinals by 10.

Atlanta (+12.5) at Tampa Bay
This sure looks like the mismatch of the week to me. Buccaneers by 21.

Dallas (-3) at LA Chargers
The Cowboys didn’t impress me in the season opener. But I’m also not sold on the Chargers. Dallas by a point.

Tennessee (+6.5) at Seattle
Probably more like 9, I think. Seahawks.

Kansas City (-3.5) at Baltimore
By the time this game is over, the media will be ready to hand the Lombardi to Kansas City. Visitors by seven.

Detroit (+11.5) at Green Bay
One of these teams has frustrations to work out, demons to exorcise … whatever. The other is in serious trouble. Packers by 17.

NY Giants (+3.5) at Washington
There’s still an outside chance Brand X turns out to be a sort of decent football team. So let’s look for them to get the win. Washington by 3.

Here’s the deal. It’s week one. I don’t know anything. You don’t know anything. No one really knows anything. Not anything real, I mean. We think we know stuff, because of last season and the preseason and all of that. But we don’t. We never do.

So here’s what not to expect. Or maybe it’s what to expect. Or something in between. I don’t know.

Philadelphia (+3) at Atlanta
At least from the outside, the 2021 Falcons look pretty similar to the slightly less than mediocre 2020 Falcons. Then again, while the Eagles look better this year than last, they could hardly look otherwise. I suspect the home team with no defense starts out with a win against a visiting team with no offense. But I’ll hedge and take Philly to keep it close. Falcons by a point.

Pittsburgh (+6.5) at Buffalo
The Steelers are probably just good enough to keep the AFC North competitive. Which should mean they’re just good enough to keep this game competitive. But they’re probably not good enough to win their division or their opening game. Bills by four.

Minnesota (-3) at Cincinnati
The Vikings may have improved some since last year. The Bengals, it appears, have not. Minnesota by six.

San Francisco (-8.5) at Detroit
The Lions are still the Lions. San Fran by seven.

Arizona (+3) at Tennessee
One or both of these teams may see its defense round into form as the season progresses. But almost no NFL defense ever starts the season fully ready to play its best football. Bet the over. Home team by six.

Seattle (-3) at Indianapolis
The Colts look like one of those teams that gets just enough right to make its struggles all the more painful. Seattle by a touchdown.

LA Chargers (+1.5) at Washington
The Chargers are probably (certainly?) the better team in this matchup. But not by enough to win in an opening weekend visit to a decent east coast team. Brand X by a field goal.

NY Jets (+3.5) at Carolina
This is a good matchup to get out of the way early. Home team by five.

Jacksonville (-3) at Houston
One of these teams has to not lose. I don’t know which it will be. But I know the Texans look extra awful. So I’ll guess Jacksonville ends up the non-loser. Let’s say by a point.

Cleveland (+5.5) at Kansas City
The consensus is that the Browns are good, but not quite good enough to keep up with a team like the C-suites. And that’s probably true on opening weekend. But I think it’s closer than most imagine. Kansas City by three.

Miami (+3) at New England
Watching the Dolphins-Patriots series bookend the teams’ seasons should be interesting. Come week 18, the emphasis may well have shifted to defense. But I’ll take the team with the stronger offense to win the opener. Patriots by six.

Green Bay (-3.5) vs. New Orleans at Jacksonville
It doesn’t really matter where this game is being played. The Saints have too much work to do. Green Bay by nine. (The media will be talking about the inevitability of a Packers Super Bowl championship by the time the day is out.)

Denver (-3) at NY Giants
The Giants may not be a great team, but this looks like one of those seasons when they turn out to be better than anyone expected. New Jersey by three.

Chicago (+8) at LA Rams
I’ve never been terribly impressed with Andy Dalton. I don’t expect that to change now. Rams by 14.

Baltimore (-4) at Las Vegas
The Ravens are clearly the better team here. Maybe it’s close through the first half. But it won’t be close down the stretch. Baltimore by 12.

Dallas (+9) at Tampa Bay
I have no excuse for not being ready to make my week one picks. I’ve had the entire offseason to prepare. And still … nope. Just not ready. Which makes me a lot like the Dallas Cowboys, who aren’t ready to take on the defending champs. The big difference is that I may still be ready to make the rest of my week one picks by Sunday, whereas the Cowboys might not be ready to for much of anything until the middle of the season. Oh, also, my lack of preparedness isn’t likely to hurt quite so much. Bucs by 12. (See what I did there?)

OK, lets’ just get this over with.

Or, actually, first I’ll just say that I don’t think I’ve ever felt less excited about a Super Bowl. It’s nothing to do with the teams. Or the players. It’s not that I think we’re in for a bad game.

It’s just context. The world was spinning in the wrong direction when this season started, and it’s still spinning in the wrong direction as this season ends. I’ve found it almost impossible to care about football since September. And if I’m to be honest now, I have to admit that a big part of me just wants to get to the other side of this game so I can start looking forward (and counting down) to what I hope will be a season I can focus on starting in the fall

But for the nonce … in for a penny, in for a pound, I suppose. Here’s what not to expect.

Kansas City (-3) vs. Tampa Bay
If this game turns out to be shootout everyone’s expecting, the Chiefs should repeat as champions. The Bucs can put up some points. There’s no question about that. But if Tampa can’t find a way to slow the Kansas City passing attack, and if the Bucs offense becomes one dimensional in an attempt to keep up, then you can expect the O line issues that Tom Brady has been disguising down the stretch are going to show up as the game wears on. And that would spell dome for the Buccaneers.

Conventional wisdom says that for the Bucs to succeed, their secondary has to come up big. Or at the very least, the Tampa DBs need to play well enough to give their pass rushers time to chase down Patrick Mahomes. And, sure, if those things happen, the Bucs D can succeed by forcing Mahomes to make some difficult choices, and to make mistakes down the stretch.

But I really think this game is about ball control. I think Tampa’s objective needs to be to take advantage of Kansas City’s questionable run D, mix in a good bit of those short, high-percentage passes Brady made such good use of in New England, and grind clock. And if they finish drives, the Bucs can beat Mahomes’ Chiefs the way the Patriots used to beat Manning’s Colts, by limiting the QB’s opportunities to hurt you and forcing him into believing he’s got to win the game on his own. It’s under those conditions that gunslingers make fatal mistakes.

I don’t know if it’ll happen. And I don’t much care whether it does. But if I’m looking at anything at all from this game, it’s that. The Chiefs get the ball right around the two minute warning with a chance to win it with a touchdown at the end of regulation. And Mahomes throws the pick that decides the game.

Buccaneers by four.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Green Bay
Tampa’s biggest obstacle in this game isn’t their opponent — the Bucs are a more complete football team than the Packers — or the cold (Tampa’s most important player has been in some big cold weather games and done just fine). It’s that this is their third straight road game. That’s never easy in the NFL. And it’s one of the reasons wild card teams only very rarely make it to the Super Bowl. But the Bucs aren’t afraid of playing in Green Bay. And they have the advantage of facing a pass D that has been inconsistent this season. The Packers’ pass D looks OK on paper, but only in aggregate. If you take a close look at the stats or watch the games, what you see is a unit that runs hot and cold depending on the quality of the opposition and whether their O is able to build a big lead and get the opponent to abandon the run. And that’s the thing all around. I think this game goes to the team that takes the run away from the others. For the Bucs, taking away the run means clamping down on D. If they can make the Packers’ offense one-dimensional, they’ll get Aaron Rodgers to make mistakes the way they got Drew Brees to make mistakes. For the Packers, taking away the run probably requires building a two-score lead. If they do that, Tom Brady loses play-action and has to try to buy time for his receivers to get open in the flat or downfield. That’s when the Buccaneers’ questionable offensive line becomes a problem. But if the Bucs can keep it close — and I expect they will — I’m confident Brady will find a way to get them to the Super Bowl. Tampa by three.

Buffalo (+3) at Kansas City
We all know (right?) that there isn’t really a question about whether Patrick Mahomes will make a miraculous recovery from his concussion and be cleared to play in this game. That’s happening. But whether Mahomes will play is less important than whether he should play. I think that’s the factor that makes the difference here, and we won’t really know what’s up until we see what happens on the field. The reality of this game is that the Bills have been playing better football than the Chiefs down the stretch — but not better by enough that we should expect Buffalo to be able to top a healthy Kansas City team in Arrowhead. But what if the Chiefs are playing with QB who isn’t as sharp as he ought to be. What makes Mahomes dangerous is that if he has the ball in his hands and he’s behind the line of scrimmage, all possibilities remain open. He can pivot on the head of a pin. The guy throws blind passes across his body and finds his receivers. That means you can chase him all the way to the right sideline and he still has two thirds of the field open to him. But if he’s out there in a fog trying to play like that, Mahomes is going to make critical mistakes. And that’s not about him. It’s about every player at his level. When a guy who thinks he’s a god is forced to play as a human, bad things can happen. I think the Bills D will keep this game close no matter what. And if Mahomes is operating at 75 or 80 percent, the Buffalo defense might find a way to win this game. If Mahomes is in better shape than that, the Bills offense is going to show that it can function in a big away game. I won’t be surprised at any outcome that isn’t a blowout one way or the other. But since I have to pick, I’ll look for Kansas City to find a way to come out on top. Chiefs by a point.