This Football Blog

Cleveland (+7.5) at Green Bay
Sooner or later, something was bound to disrupt the weekly alternating win-loss pattern the Browns have been in since week seven. A Christmas trip to Wisconsin ought to do the trick. Packers by 10.

Indianapolis (+2.5) at Arizona
The Colts have the look of one of those teams that comes on at just the right time. And the Cardinals have the look of one of those teams that fades at just the wrong time. Indy by three.

Detroit (-6.5) at Atlanta
The Lions already have two more wins this season (and three fewer losses) than anyone had any right to expect. The Falcons stink, but they’ll take this one by a field goal.

Baltimore (+4.5) at Cincinnati
The only reason I can come up with for predicting a Ravens win here is that the other result would give the Bengals the inside track in the race for the AFC North title. Thing is, that feels like enough. Baltimore by a point.

LA Chargers (-10.5) at Houston
The Chargers probably need to win out to stay in the postseason picture. The Texans certainly need to just get through their last three games and start figuring out what comes next. Los Angeles by 10.

LA Rams (-3.5) at Minnesota
I think the Vikings are gonna have a hard time establishing the run against the Rams. That’s not good news for Minnesota. Los Angeles by three.

Buffalo (+2) at New England
If the Patriots can actually field an offense, and their defense shows up for the full game, they should be able to beat the Bills again and all but sew up the AFC East title in the process. I’m gonna guess it breaks that way. New England by four.

Jacksonville (+1.5) at NY Jets
Neither of these teams has an offense. And neither of these teams has a defense. I’m really not sure either of these teams actually exists. In theory, though, let’s figure New Jersey beats Jacksonville by three.

NY Giants (+10) at Philadelphia
It really isn’t a very good time to be a football fan in northern New Jersey, is it? Eagles by nine.

Tampa Bay (-10) at Carolina
The Buccaneers can win the NFC South with a victory. But they’re winning the division one way or another. It’s really all about postseason seeding at this point. That’s important. And the Bucs will demonstrate that they know it with a decisive win. Tampa by 14 (or more).

Chicago (+6.5) at Seattle
Say what you want about the 2021 Seahawks, but they sure do know how to beat the stuffing out of weak opponents. Seattle by 17.

Pittsburgh (+8.5) at Kansas City
This should just about do it for the Steelers. Kansas City by 13.

Denver (pick ’em) at Las Vegas
The prize is the right to pretend you have a shot of making the playoffs for one more week. Vegas by a point.

Washington (+10) at Dallas
Brand X is done. But they’ll keep this one to within a single score purely out of spite. Dallas by seven.

Miami (-2.5) at New Orleans
I’d pick the home team in either stadium. Saints by three.

San Francisco (-3) at Tennessee
The only thing making this game tough to pick is the fact that the Niners had to travel across the country on short rest to play it. Otherwise, it’s simple. San Francisco’s playing better football lately than the banged-up Titans. I still like the Niners to win, but I’ll take the Titans with the points. San Fran by one.

Kansas City (-3) at LA Chargers
This game goes to the team that’s most effective moving the ball on the ground. But I don’t know which team that will be. So that’s helpful, right? I’m just gonna go with the home team to win it by three and expect to be proven wrong.

Baltimore (+2.5) at Cleveland
The Ravens are beaten up, coming off a tough loss to the Steelers, and playing on the road for a second straight week. And all that bad news is good news for Cleveland. So, you know, as long as the Browns used their bye week to overhaul their run D, they should be fine. Ravens by a field goal.

Jacksonville (+8.5) at Tennessee
Eight and a half? Like, for real? Titans by 17.

Las Vegas (+9.5) at Kansas City
This should be the end of the road for the Raiders in the AFC West race, and effectively in the wild card chase as well. Kansas City by 13.

New Orleans (-5.5) at NY Jets
The Saints’ losing streak (currently at five games) has to end sometime, right? And against the Jets is usually a pretty good guess of when. But, uh, I think maybe not. New Jersey by a point.

Dallas (-4.5) at Washington
I keep thinking Brand X can’t win. And then they do. So, you know, Washington by a field goal. I guess.

Atlanta (+2.5) at Carolina
The possibly mediocre Falcons couldn’t beat the probably mediocre Panthers in Atlanta. I’m not sure why anyone would think they can do better in Charlotte. Panthers by six.

Seattle (-9) at Houston
At first glance, I thought maybe nine was the over/under. And I wouldn’t have been confident picking against that. Seahawks by four.

Detroit (+11.5) at Denver
One suspects the Lions have achieved their goal for the season. Broncos by a touchdown.

NY Giants (+9.5) at LA Chargers
Do the Giants even have a team left? Chargers by 13.

San Francisco (-2) at Cincinnati
The Niners are on the road for a second straight week and playing a team that’s going to make it difficult for them to move the ball on the ground. That’s not a good situation for them. Bengals by three.

Buffalo (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
Tom Brady leaving the Patriots for the Buccaneers was supposed to be a good thing for the Bills. It definitely wasn’t supposed to point to Buffalo losing consecutive games to New England and Tampa. Be careful what you wish for, right? Tampa by a touchdown.

Chicago (+11.5) at Green Bay
The Bears have nothing left to play for. And they couldn’t keep it closer than 10 in Chicago when they were still in the mix. Packers by 14.

LA Rams (+2.5) at Arizona
The Rams are playing to stay in the NFC West race. The Cardinals are playing for the one seed. There’s a reason for this. Arizona by a point.

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Minnesota
I don’t like the thought of picking either of these foundering teams to win any game. But someone has to come out on top. I’m going with the one that didn’t just lose to Detroit. Steeler by three.

Tampa Bay (-10.5) at Atlanta
I hate, hate, hate big speads in divisional games. Because, yes, the Falcons are terrible. And OK, the Buccaneers stomped on the Falcons when they met in Tampa in week two. But weird things happen in meetings between teams that know each other as well as these two. I’m gonna say Tampa by nine, but I won’t be surprised at all if it turns into a 45-0 blowout.

Arizona (-7.5) at Chicago
The Cardinals might be the best team in the league. They certainly, and by no small margin, the best team in the league that has ever called Chicago home. Here they come to take their city back. Arizona by 13.

LA Chargers (+3) at Cincinnati
The Chargers can be dangerous on any given week, but they’re ultimately just another middle-of-the-pack team. The Bengals are a better than average squad with a knack for shooting themselves in the foot. Given that the inconsistent visitors are playing their second straight road game and traveling most of the way across the country to do it, I’m thinking inconsistent home team by six.

Minnesota (-7) at Detroit
Who cares? Vikings by three.

NY Giants (+6.5) at Miami
No, the Dolphins are not for real. Stop. You’re making yourself look silly. But, uh, the Giants are no real threat to anyone. Miami by seven.

Philadelphia (-5) at NY Jets
The Eagles have a major identity crisis happening. They’re a different team every week. This week, they’re the team that manages to let the Jets hang around all afternoon before pulling out a three-point victory late.

Indianapolis (-10) at Houston
Oh, good, another divisional game with a double-digit spread in favor of the visitors. Then again, Indy did win the last meeting with Houston by four TDs. Colts by 14.

Washington (+1.5) at Las Vegas
I’m not sure there’s any way to know which version of either of these teams is going to show up. So I’ll just take the home team to win it by the default three.

Jacksonville (+13) at LA Rams
Thirteen? Seriously? That’s all I have to give? Count me in. Rams by three TDs.

Baltimore (-4.5) at Pittsburgh
The Steelers are actually worse than you think. Ravens by six.

San Francisco (-3) at Seattle
A lot has changed since these teams met in San Francisco back in week four. And none of it bodes well for Seatlle. Niners by six.

Denver (+9) at Kansas City
The Broncos struggle against strong opposition. That’s not a great starting place for this match. Kansas City by seven.

New England (+3) at Buffalo
There’s a lot riding on whether Kyle Dugger’s positive Covid test was the result of a bad break or an indication that he’s a self-centered asshole. For a number of reasons, I’m rooting for bad break. The Patriots need to be able to limit the Bills’ passing offense. If Dugger’s on the field, allowing the New England D to operate as it has through the Patriots’ six-game win streak, New England should win by seven. If he isn’t, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on the New England pass rush. Still, I suspect they’re up to the task. So as long as the Patriots O can move the ball consistently on the ground, I still think New England can come out ahead. But maybe by more like a single point. In either case, I’m looking for the underdog visitors to come away with a win.

Dallas (-4) at New Orleans
There’s very little chance of the Saints turning things around anytime sooner than September. Cowboys by seven.

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Cincinnati
You can’t lose division games in the tight AFC North and expect to find a way into the postseason. And the Steelers definitely can’t hope to survive a season sweep by the Bengals. But that’s where this thing appears to be headed. Pittsburgh is going to need to force Joe Burrow to beat them through the air if they’re to have any chance. But they did that when they hosted the Bengals back in week three and they still managed to lose. So you never know, except sometimes you know. Bengals by six.

Tampa Bay (-3) at Indianapolis
Tom Brady has won more games in Indianapolis than Carson Wentz. That doesn’t actually mean anything, but it’s kinda fun. What does mean something is the question of whether the Buccaneers can play run defense against an opponent with an actual run offense. That’s what makes the difference here. But I don’t know the answer, so I think I’ll hedge and take the Bucs by a point.

Carolina (-2.5) at Miami
The Panthers aren’t anything more than an average team that knows how to take advantage of weak opponents. But that should be plenty to get them through this game. Carolina by four.

Tennessee (+7) at New England
Foxborough has not been great to Ryan Tannehill. Yeah, Tannehill and the Titans got the job done the last time they traveled to New England, eliminating the Patriots in the first round of the 2019 postseason, but not a lot was asked of the Tennessee quarterback that day. He completed 8 of 15 passes for 72 yards with a touchdown and a pick, while Derrick Henry (182 yards rushing, 22 receiving, two TDs) and the Titans D carried the day against the undermanned Patriots. And that was Tannehill’s only career victory in Foxborough. Including that game, he’s 1-6 all time in road games against the Patriots with a stat line of 150 for 248 (60.5%) for 1,632 yards (6.6 yards per attempt) with 6 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. That calculates to a passer rating of 69.5. The injured Henry won’t be there to carry the Tennessee O this weekend. And a Patriots D that has rounded into form to become one fo the best in the league (maybe the best) has probably taken note of the Titans’ struggles on the ground since Henry went down. I suspect the Tennessee D will find a way to show Mac Jones a few looks he isn’t familiar with, which will likely produce some rookie mistakes. But unless those prove back breaking, I don’t see a path to victory for the Titan’s here. New England by a field goal.

Philadelphia (-3.5) at NY Giants
Maybe the Eagles really have found the formula that will propel them through the rest of the season an on to success in the post. Or maybe they’re just in the midst of a strong mid-season run. We’ll see. What we can say for sure, though, is that the Eagles are able to field an actual football team. That’s all they’ll need this weekend. Philadelphia by 10.

Atlanta (-2) at Jacksonville
One of these teams is actually worse than the other. That’s so sad. Falcons by three.

NY Jets (+2.5) at Houston
One of these teams is actually worse than the other. That’s so sad. Texans by one.

LA Chargers (-2.5) at Denver
The Broncos have managed to stay in the mix in the AFC West even though they really don’t belong there. That’s nice for them, I supposed, but it isn’t sustainable. Chargers by a touchdown.

LA Rams (-1.5) at Green Bay
The Rams stumbled into their bye week with back to back losses to the Titans and 49ers. They really can’t afford to stumble back out. And yet I suspect Los Angeles is going to struggle yet again to move the ball on the ground. And one dimensional offenses don’t win games against the Packers at Lambeau. Green Bay by four.

Minnesota (+3.5) at San Francisco
Move the ball well on the ground and you beat the Vikings. Seems like the Niners should be able to make that formula work for them. San Francisco by a field goal.

Cleveland (+3.5) at Baltimore
Five of the Raven’s final seven games come against AFC North teams. They go in 0-1 in the division with a loss to the Bengals. They need to come out no worse than 4-2. And it’s probably going to take two wins over the Browns over the next three weeks to get them there. I think they at least make a good start of it. Baltimore by three.

Seattle (pick ’em) at Washington
This should just about do it for the Seahawks. Brand X by six.

Chicago (-3) at Detroit
I guess I’ll at least be able to stay focused on cooking Thanksgiving dinner. Bears by four.

Las Vegas (+7.5) at Dallas
Both of these teams this season have tended to do the exact opposite of what I expect. So I guess that means the Raiders are winning, because I’m taking Dallas. Though I’m not giving more than seven, so maybe the outcome is a blowout by the Cowboys. Shrug.

Buffalo (-6.5) at New Orleans
I can’t pick it this way, but I won’t be at all shocked if the Bills find a way to drop this one. Buffalo’s been inconsistent of late. And they’re traveling on short rest. Those are factors that can produce an upset. Still, I just don’t have it in me to pick the beat up Saints. So I’m going Bills by a field goal.

Indianapolis (+7) at Buffalo
The Colts offense is balanced enough to be able to pose a challenge to the Bills D. But the Indy defense, while solid, can struggle to stop the run. I think this game is close throughout, which means that a single odd bounce of the ball can potentially determine the outcome. But I expect Buffalo to come out on top. Let’s figure by four.

Baltimore (-5) at Chicago
The Ravens are an inconsistent team. The Bears are consistently disappointing. Baltimore by a field goal.

Detroit (+12.5) at Cleveland
Last weekend’s tie is probably about the best outcome the Lions can hope for this season. But the Browns are a mess. So I’m thinking Cleveland by six.

Houston (+10) at Tennessee
There’s no such thing as a trap game between divisional rivals. And even if the Titans aren’t fully focused and start slow, they’ll get their legs under them quickly enough. Tennessee by 17.

Green Bay (-1) at Minnesota
I’m not nearly impressed enough with the 2021 Packers to take them in an away game against a division rival with its back against the wall. Green Bay is going to win the NFC North. But they’re not wrapping it up this weekend. Vikings by a field goal.

Miami (-3.5) at NY Jets
I can’t come up with a single meaningful positive thing to say about either of these teams. They’re both terrible. And probably the home team is terrible-er. But who knows. Dolphins by a point.

New Orleans (+2.5) at Philadelphia
I don’t know what to make of the Saints. I also don’t know that I trust the Eagles to win more than one game in a row. This is a conundrum. I’m gonna look for Philly to continue to keep the ball on the ground. If they can pull it off, the Eagles should get a win. Here again, though, I suspect it’s by no more than a single point.

Washington (+3.5) at Carolina
I definitely don’t believe Brand X (now with less defense!) can win more than one game in a row. Panthers by six.

San Francisco (-6.5) at Jacksonville
If the Niners were 7-2 and at risk of looking past this game, I’d actually be tempted to take the Jaguars here. But San Francisco is in no position to look past any opponent. Still, it’s an early game on the East Coast after a short week. So I’m thinking 49ers by four.

Cincinnati (-1.5) at Las Vegas
Given the inability of either of these teams to stop the run, this game could be over by like 5:30 eastern time. I don’t know who wins. I’m going home team by a field goal.

Dallas (+2.5) at Kansas City
Everybody wants to be excited about Kansas City again. Wake me when they develop a defense. Cowboys by three.

Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle
The Cardinals can’t lose to the weakest team in their division and hope to hold off the Rams down the stretch. Arizona by six.

Pittsburgh (+5.5) at LA Chargers
This mediocre matchup is one of those games in which I’d take the home team in either stadium. Chargers by four.

NY Giants (+11) at Tampa Bay
There may be a thing or two Tom Brady wants to work out in this game. Buccaneers by 14.