This Football Blog

NY Jets (+6.5) at Cleveland
The Jets probably aren’t quite as bad as they looked against the Ravens in week one. But they might be. Browns by nine.

Washington (pick ’em) at Detroit
Washington’s probably the better team in this matchup. But not by much. I’ll take the Lions at home. By a field goal.

Tampa Bay (-2.5) at New Orleans
I know the deal is that the Saints “always beat the Bucs” (except, you know, in the postseason). And the safe bet, no matter what Vegas has to say about it, is for that streak to continue. But, eh, I’m gonna keep on picking Tom Brady’s teams to win, especially when they have defenses that look as good as the Tampa D did in week one. Buccaneers by a point.

Carolina (+2) at NY Giants
This matchup looks pretty damned even to me. So I’ll take the home team. Giants by four.

New England (-2.5) at Pittsburgh
It’s not surprising the Steelers at the popular pick in this game even though the Patriots are favored. Pittsburgh played tough and beat the defending conference champs on the road in week one while the Patriots looked uneven and uncertain in a loss to the Dolphins in Miami. Plus, two straight road games is never easy. Thing is, though, the Patriots never play their best football in Miami. And last week’s result wasn’t nearly so lopsided as it’s been made out to be. If New England plays slightly better than they did in the opener, they should be able to come away with at least a narrow victory here. Patriots by a point.

Indianapolis (-3) at Jacksonville
The Colts need to start doing a bit better than not losing to teams they should, um, not lose to. Indy by three.

Miami (+3.5) at Baltimore
The Dolphins season got off to a fine start a week ago. So they’ll always have that. Ravens by eight.

Atlanta (+10) at LA Rams
Not all hangovers are alike. Rams by a touchdown.

Seattle (+9) at San Francisco
Nine seems excessive in a divisional matchup. Niners by six.

Cincinnati (-7) at Dallas
You may not have heard this before, but quarterback is kind of an important position. Bengals by 10.

Houston (+10) at Denver
The Texans managed a tie in their home opener. That’s exciting. The Broncos should start slow-ish coming off a tough Monday night loss in Seattle. But they’ll get it figured out by the second half. Denver by nine.

Arizona (+5.5) at Las Vegas
The Raiders aren’t great. But they should look great against the Cardinals. Las Vegas by 14.

Chicago (+10) at Green Bay
The Packers might be just better than middle of the road this season. But that won’t show much here unless you’re paying very close attention. Green Bay by eight.

Tennessee (+10) at Buffalo
I don’t know what’s likely to slow the Bills down this season. But I know it’s not the Titans. Buffalo by 20.

Minnesota (+2.5) at Philadelphia
I flipped a coin and it came up Vikings. Let’s say by one.

LA Chargers (+4) at Kansas City
The Chargers are probably better than you think they are. I suspect they’ll be in play for the division through the season. But they’re not traveling on a short week and beating the Chiefs. Kansas City by a field goal.

I’ve decided not to dwell on the fact that my pick for the 2022 season opener was absolutely, spectacularly wrong. Because, you know, I pretty much always pick the Thursday night games wrong, so I’m still on par. Instead, I’m obsessing over the eight road teams giving points this week. Eight. And it was nine before Thursday. That’s an uncomfortable situation in any week. In week one when there’s nothing but offseason and preseason to draw from, it’s just impossible. So this is me throwing darts. And landing, as always, on what not to expect.

New Orleans (-5.5) at Atlanta
It looks like it’s going to be a long season for the Falcons. But it also looks like 2022 is going to prove more than a bit of a slog for the Saints as well. Still, the New Orleans D probably has enough going for it to deliver a win this week. Saints by four.

San Francisco (-6.5) at Chicago
I don’t want to keep picking road teams. But I also don’t want to pick the Bears to beat a good team on any field. Niners by three.

Pittsburgh (+7) at Cincinnati
This seems about right. Even if Cincinnati takes a step back rather than the step forward everyone is expecting this season, the several steps back Pittsburgh has taken should more than make up the difference. Still, a touchdown in a divisional game is a lot to give. Bengals by six.

Philadelphia (-5) at Detroit
I’m not sure I believe in the 2022 Eagles. But I know I don’t believe in the 2022 Lions. So here I go, picking another road favorite to win but not cover. Philly by a field goal.

New England (+3.5) at Miami
Visits to Miami are never easy for the Patriots. Playing there early in the season with the game time temperature predicted to be 90 doesn’t help. The Patriots are a better football team than the empty-headed loudmouths who dominate sports media in Boston want us to believe. But I wouldn’t count on this game shutting that crowd up. Dolphins by three.

Baltimore (-6.5) at NY Jets
The Ravens are going to hit a few bumps along the way this season. But the Jets, at most, are a speed bump. Baltimore by seven.

Jacksonville (+3) at Washington
I can’t say one thing about either of these teams with any degree of confidence. I guess I like Washington’s defense to carry the team here. Commanders (it’s a stupid name, but at least not an offensive one) by four.

Cleveland (pick ’em) at Carolina
Meh. Panthers by six.

Indianapolis (-7) at Houston
Do the Texans have an actual football team to field? Colts by four.

NY Giants (+5.5) at Tennessee
I think we’ll see the Giants show some flashes of hope through the season. And that’s fine. New Jersey may not be rebuilding, but they’re, you know, rebuilding. Still, the Titans are a better team than they’re getting credit for right now. That should show here. Tennessee by a touchdown.

Green Bay (pick ’em) at Minnesota
On the road against your toughest division rival with your aging quarterback lined up behind a depleted O line is not an idea way to start a season. Minnesota by four.

Kansas City (-6.5) at Arizona
I’m not sure it would even feel like football season without the media getting an excuse to declare the Chiefs certain Super Bowl champions after week one. Kansas City by 14.

Las Vegas (+3.5) at LA Chargers
This game could go either way, which means you pick the home team. Chargers by three.

Tampa Bay (-2.5) at Dallas
I’m not picking against Tom Brady’s Bucs, though I think there’s a decent chance I end up regretting that this week. Tampa by one.

Denver (-6.5) at Seattle
It sure looks like the Seahawks are in for a long season. And Denver’s new QB may be coming into this game looking to make a statement. Broncos by eight.

Buffalo (-2.5) at LA Rams
Everybody loves the 2022 Bills. And with good reason. They appear to have a hell of a football team yet again. Better than the defending champs? Yeah, maybe. I mean, probably. But better by enough to be able to fly across the country and win the opener in Los Angeles? I don’t know. Maybe. But I’m not betting on it. Rams by a point.

LA Rams (-4) vs. Cincinnati
The prevailing mode of thinking about this game is that the Bengals are the sentimental pick, but the Rams are the smart pick. And, sure, OK, there’s more than a little bit of truth to be found there. Certainly, the Bengals have that scrappy underdog quality that everyone likes. (I remember the Rams playing a Super Bowl against team that had that kind of energy some several years back. But I seem to recall that those Rams were much more heavily favored than the current squad.) And the Rams are probably the better team if you step back and compare point by point, matchup by matchup. There’s little question but that while both teams can put up points, the Rams come in with the more complete defense. That should be enough to get the job done. Thing is, though, it’s not that clear cut. Cincinnati actually can win this game. They’re in it for a reason. The Bengals have a tendency to play up to the level of their opponents. More important, they’ve played their best football in the postseason. That still doesn’t make the Bengals the better team here. The Rams still have the edge. But I don’t see this as the “probably close through the first half” affair most seem to be expecting. I mean, it could be a blowout. If the Cincinnati secondary doesn’t play its best football all evening long, things may fall apart for the Bengals well before halftime. But I suspect we’re looking at a competitive game right down to the finish. That would make it either team’s game. And there’s just something about this Cincy squad. So with nothing real at risk, I’ll go out on a limb and pick the Bengals to put up the winning score in the final minute of regulation. Cincinnati by a point.

Cincinnati (+7) at Kansas City
I’d love to see the Bengals win this game. And it’s not as if Cincinnati can’t beat Kansas City. But it was all Cincy could do to win at home four weeks ago. Winning a second straight road game in the postseason against a team that’s been playing its best football. It’s just hard to imagine. KC by four.

San Francisco (+3.5) at LA Rams
I don’t know that it’s impossible to beat a division rival three times in a season. But it sure ain’t easy. Rams by three.

Cincinnati (+4) at Tennessee
If Derrick Henry is back to anything close to 100 percent, there’s a solid chance the well rested Titans just plain old dismantle the Bengals. And even with less than a completely healthy and ready Henry, I suspect the the home team (which has to be one of the most overlooked and underestimated one seeds ever) is at least a touchdown better than the visitors. So let’s just say that: Tennessee by seven.

San Francisco (+5.5) at Green Bay
The 49ers absolutely can win this game. I think they actually match up pretty well with the Packers. And if they can move the ball effectively on the ground (where the Green Bay defense is questionable), and keep the Packers from establishing the run (also a distinct possibility), San Francisco can make the game about Aaron Rodgers. And Rodgers has a habit of melting down in postseason games when he believes he has to win all by himself. In the end, I suspect injuries, consecutive road games, and traveling on short rest conspire to upend San Fran. But I like them to make it a game through at least three quarters. And I suspect five and a half is excessive. Green Bay by a field goal.

LA Rams (+3) at Tampa Bay
One could spend all day talking about the matchups here. But in the end, you still end up with the question of whether there’s anything to be gained picking against Tom Brady in the postseason. And there really isn’t. Buccaneers win it straight up; it’s a push with the points.

Buffalo (+1.5) at Kansas City
The Bills are the better team here. By enough to overcome home field? Maybe. I think it’s close game. And a close game can always go either way. But I have a hard time picking against a home team coming off a bye. So I guess I’ll look for Kansas City’s elimination from the tournament to wait until next week in Nashville. KC by one.

Las Vegas (+6) at Cincinnati
The Raiders can win this game. But they probably won’t. It’s not that the Bengals aren’t beatable. It’s just that in order to win, the Raiders will need to hold onto the ball on offense and stop the run on D. I imagine they can pull off either of those things, but I’m not convinced they can do both. Cincinnati by three.

New England (+5) at Buffalo
The Patriots aren’t going to win this game the way they won the last time they visited the Bills. I suspect they’ll still want to lean on the ground game, but they’re going to have to be able to run a more balanced offensive attack. If they can produce on the ground and through the air, and if the defense can force Josh Allen to make one or two critical mistakes, New England can pull off an upset. It’s a lot to ask, particularly with a rookie quarterback. But upsets happen in the wild card round. And I don’t see many opportunities for them to happen elsewhere. So I’ll look for the Patriots to win it by four.

Philadelphia (+8.5) at Tampa Bay
Sure, the Eagles are the NFC seven seed. And there are reasons they landed there. But Philly also may the NFC team best suited to beat the Buccaneers. If Philly can grind away on the ground, keeping Tom Brady and the Tampa offense off the field, and possibly forcing the Bucs O to be one dimensional when they do have the ball, they can grab a win here (and move on to certain defeat in Green Bay next weekend). But I think Brady’s got something to prove, and I think he’ll get about proving it here. Buccaneers by seven.

San Francisco (+3) at Dallas
Here’s another game in which an upset is an absolute possibility. Thing is, if the Niners are going to make it happen, they’re going to need Jimmy Garoppolo to play like he isn’t injured. And he is injured. Cowboys by a point.

Pittsburgh (+12.5) at Kansas City
The Steelers will probably end up being the only underdog to come out of this weekend with a victory. Because there’s absolutely no possible way Pittsburgh should be able to keep up with Kansas City, let alone win. And that’s how these things always manage to go. Still, Kansas City by 14.

Arizona (+4) at LA Rams
These teams are both weird and hard to get a handle on. I really thing this game is a coin toss. And since I can’t see a lot of upsets in this weekend, I’m just gonna hold my breath and pick one here. Cardinals by three.

Kansas City (-10.5) at Denver
There aren’t many instances in which I feel like it’s wise to give double-digit points in a divisional match in which the favorite is on the road (let alone on the road for a second straight week). But, I mean, Kansas City absolutely hast to win this game, not just to hold on to the two seed and a shot at regaining the one, but to put last week’s brutal loss in Cincinnati behind them. I think the visitors take this one by a solid two touchdowns.

Dallas (-4) at Philadelphia
I’m not sure either of these teams has anything meaningful to play for here. The outside chance of improving your seeding? Meh. Eagles by a field goal. Or something.

Cincinnati (+6) at Cleveland
The Bengals have signaled that they’re ready to lose this game. It would be hard to pick a team even to cover under those circumstances. So Browns by nine.

Green Bay (-3) at Detroit
Imagine hosting a divisional opponent that has nothing to play for and every reason to limit or rest starters and still getting three points. This is what it means to be the Detroit Lions. But I suspect the Lions will come to play a full came while the Packers come to play only until halftime. Lions by a field goal.

Chicago (+5.5) at Minnesota
I wonder if anyone cares. Vikings by three.

Washington (-7) at NY Giants
I don’t know. One of these teams is probably going to win. Let’s say Brand X by four.

Indianapolis (-15) at Jacksonville
The reward for beating the stuffing out of the Jaguars (as opposed to just beating them, which is all the Colts technically need to do to qualify for the postseason) would be that you avoid having to go to Kansas City or Nashville for the wild card round. And also, you get to end your season by beating the stuffing out of the Jaguars. Which is nice. Colts by 17.

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Baltimore
The Steelers wrapped up their season with a win on Monday night. For them, this is just the last stop on the way to a new era. (I mean, sure, technically, the Steelers remain in contention for a wild card spot, but it’s not real.) Baltimore doesn’t have much of a chance at the postseason. But even the ghost of a chance should be enough to keep the Ravens focused. Baltimore by seven.

Tennessee (-10.5) at Houston
The one seed is a big deal. Tennessee by 14.

New Orleans (-3.5) at Atlanta
A win would actually give the Saints a solid chance to make the playoffs. That’s something to play for. Saints by seven.

NY Jets (+16) at Buffalo
If you’re keeping an eye on this game from New England, you’re hoping the Bills take their eyes off the ball. But that’s just not gonna happen. Buffalo by 21.

San Francisco (+4.5) at LA Rams
In which the last tiny bit of hope for a successful 2021 campaign is drained from the 49ers. Rams by six.

New England (-6.5) at Miami
Things pretty much never go smoothly for the Patriots in Miami. But New England does manage a win against their division rivals here and there. Patriots by a field goal.

Seattle (+5.5) at Arizona
A fitting end to an awful season for the Seahawks. Cardinals by seven.

Carolina (+8) at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers don’t have much to play for. But not much is way more than absolutely nothing. Tampa by 10.

LA Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas
The winner gets to lose in Kansas City next weekend. The loser goes home. Or stays home as the case may be. Chargers by a point.

Atlanta (+14.5) at Buffalo
The Bills are two easy home wins away from a second straight AFC East title. They’ll put this one away early. Buffalo by 20.

NY Giants (+6) at Chicago
Oh, fun! A late season game between eliminated teams in which not even draft order has any meaning (since the Giants own the Bears’ first-round pick). This should be a real humdinger. Bears by three.

Kansas City (-5) at Cincinnati
If the Bengals can’t find ways to win games like this, their postseason run is going to be a very short one. Kansas City by a field goal.

Miami (+3.5) at Tennessee
The Dolphins may get a chance to play spoilers when they host the Patriots next weekend. (Though probably only around seeding since the possibility of New England losing at home to Jacksonville this weekend is fairly remote.) But that’s about the only role they’re likely to play in relation to the 2022 postseason. Titans by six.

Las Vegas (+6.5) at Indianapolis
The Raiders are hanging on by a thread. The Colts have a real shot at making a championship run. Indy by nine.

Jacksonville (+15.5) at New England
A win over the bad and depleted Jaguars probably puts the Patriots in the postseason. New England by 17.

Tampa Bay (-13) at NY Jets
The Buccaneers are playing for seeding. The Jets aren’t really playing at all. Tampa by 14.

Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
I don’t think Brand X is likely to give up the ghost readily. Eagles by a point.

LA Rams (-3.5) at Baltimore
The Ravens continue their extended slide into the offseason. Rams by four.

Denver (+6.5) at LA Chargers
If the Chargers win out and get a bit of help they can still qualify for the tournament. I think they’ll do their part this week. Los Angeles by three.

Houston (+12.5) at San Francisco
Things aren’t looking so great for the Niners. But they shouldn’t need much by way of quarterback play to win this game. San Francisco by seven.

Arizona (+5.5) at Dallas
If this game were being played in Glendale, I’d probably be looking for the Cardinals to stop their slide and reassert their position as a dangerous team. In Dallas I’m just not sure. Cowboys by four.

Carolina (+6.5) at New Orleans
Neither of these teams is going anywhere, mostly because neither of these teams has a quarterback. But the Panthers extra don’t have a QB this week. Saints by seven.

Detroit (+7) at Seattle
It’s been a rough season for the Seahawks. But it hasn’t been that rough. Seattle by nine.

Minnesota (+6.5) at Green Bay
With wins over weak divisional opponents this week and next, the Packers can earn the right to be eliminated from the postseason in front of their own fans. Again. That’s pretty exciting. Right? Green Bay by seven.

Cleveland (-3) at Pittsburgh
There’s an era ending in Pittsburgh. But I don’t see it ending with a home loss to the Browns. Steelers by three.