This Football Blog

Pittsburgh (-7) vs. Arizona

I wasn’t kidding two weeks ago when I said, in essence, that this was the Super Bowl matchup of my nightmares. Look, I’ve got nothing against the Pittsburgh Steelers. In fact, the only negative thing I can say about the team is that it’s quarterbacked by a guy who’s not nearly talented enough to be headed to his second Super Bowl in five years as a pro. And even then, the fact of the matter is that Ben Roethlisberger is a tough goddamned bastard who, in a weird way, has earned every bit of his professional success. I respect him as a football player even if I think he’s only a marginally good QB who happens to be blessed enough to play for a team with one of the most consistently outstanding defenses I’ve ever seen. No, I don’t think this Steelers D is the best the league has seen in any single season. It’s close, though. What I think is that the Steelers D has been better over multiple seasons than one can reasonably expect in the free agency/salary cap era. And that’s enough to get you to a Super Bowl as often as your offense can manage not to screw up too bad and as often as there isn’t an outstanding balanced squad in your conference. The thing that bothers me about Pittsburgh is the damned fans, who are close to as obnoxious a group as I’ve ever witnessed. You know, after Jets fans, who are insufferable and maybe Cowboys fans, though I find it as difficult to take Cowboys fans seriously as I do to take Yankees fans seriously (I know you’re supposed to hate both, but I ultimately just find them silly). If the Steelers win — by which I mostly mean when the Steelers win — I’m pretty much gonna have to turn off Sirius for the next two weeks just so I don’t have to listen to every idiot in Western Pennsylvania (which all evidence suggests is the entire population of the region) call in to crow about an accomplishment they ultimately had nothing to do with — the scientifically established benefits of waving yellow towels notwithstanding.

And there’s my problem. Because, hey, you know it as well as I do: We can talk about Arizona’s chances. We can talk about the Cardinals’ offense and what a great receiver Larry Fitzgerald and how Kurt Warner has played excellent football in two Super Bowls to date (though he won only one of them). We can even talk about how well Arizona’s D has performed in the playoffs. We can jaw about all that stuff all day if that’s what you want. I mean, a lot of other people are doing just that. But it doesn’t change the fact that the only way the Steelers are losing this game is if Roethlisberger loses it for them. And I don’t see that. I mean, seriously, Big Ben can hardly play much worse in this game than he did in Super Bowl XL and the Steelers managed to win that game 21-10. For the Cardinals to win here, Roethlisberger needs to turn the ball over deep in Pittsburgh territory at least two and possibly three times. And the Cards need to capitalize. With touchdowns, not field goals. If by some miracle that happens, Arizona could come out ahead. If not, the Cardinals don’t stand a chance. Here’s the big factor, in my mind: The Steelers D doesn’t need to blitz to pressure a quarterback. They get there with five pass rushers. And that makes them the perfect defense to take on Arizona; they can get into the backfield without sacrificing pass coverage or leaving themselves vulnerable to the run. That’s a hard thing to overcome. It requires perfect execution. And based on what I’ve seen so far this season, I simply don’t believe Warner and his crew have perfection in them.

So, sure, I’ll be rooting for Arizona. Right to the end. But I’m not expecting to walk away happy. I think the Cards make it a game into the fourth quarter, but I’m looking for the Steelers to put up a clinching TD late (quite possibly in the form of a pick six) and to make the final score 24-13.

OK, let’s start off with an admission of the obvious: I have absolutely no idea what I’m talking about here. I’ve been thoroughly befuddled by this NFL season since at least week one (and probably a good bit before that) and things simply aren’t coming into any clearer focus for me as the playoffs wear on. OK, sure, I went 2-2 both straight up and against the spread last weekend. On the surface, that ain’t bad considering three road teams came out of the weekend with wins, something that never happens in the divisional road. But there’s also the fact that I went into the weekend certain of exactly one thing: that the Carolina Panthers would crush the Arizona Cardinals. And we all know how smashingly well that predication worked out. So the one thing I “knew for sure” was a bust and two thirds of the stuff I outright guessed at worked out. I assume you’ll understand when I tell you I’m not inclined to do my touchdown dance here. (Or I wouldn’t be if I had a touchdown dance.) So how will conference championship weekend come out? I wouldn’t be able to answer that with any degree of certainty if this weren’t the penultimate weekend of play in the most topsy-turvy NFL season to which I have ever been witness. Which it is. So what the hell do I know? I’ll offer my guesses, such as they may be. If you’re smart, you’ll look for the actual outcomes to be precisely the opposite of what I predict. And all of this, of course, is just a long way of saying here’s what not to expect.

Philadelphia (-3.5) at Arizona
You know, on one hand, I have no reason (or OK, very little reason) to anticipate that Donovan McNabb will have as poor a showing in this game as Jake Delhomme had last Saturday night. On the other, I’m acutely aware of the fact that I was here a week ago saying there was no way Delhomme would fare as poorly against Arizona as Matt Ryan had in the wild card round. And my reasoning on the Delhomme thing was solid: He’s a veteran; Ryan’s a rookie. I’ve got nothing like that on which to hang my expectation that McNabb will play better against the Cardinals D than Delhomme did. That said, there are a couple of factors to consider. One is that McNabb is a better quarterback than Delhomme. Maybe much better or maybe only slightly better. But better. The other is that it remains hard to believe that an Arizona defense that ranked 22nd in the league against the pass through the regular season (giving up 221 passing yards a game, 7.2 per attempt and allowing 36 passing TDs while logging just 13 picks) has managed to reinvent itself so dramatically in the post-season (202 yards per game, 5.3 per attempt and three TDs to seven picks). And if, as I suspect, a cardinal can’t change its plumage, then you have to anticipate at the very least that Arizona will at some point revert to form and perhaps that the Cardinals are due for an outright horrible showing that drives a statistical correction. If the Cardinals can’t keep up the pace on pass D, it could be a very good afternoon for McNabb. Of course, if the Cardinals really have changed, it could spell trouble for the Eagles. Brian Westbook was a non-factor in the Meadowlands last weekend. And while you’d have to be a fool not to attribute that at least in part to the Giants defense, there’s also the fact that Westbrook has been playing hurt. There’s no reason to expect he’ll be the deciding factor against a Cardinals D that’s stopped the run about as well as the Giants D, particularly if the Cardinals’ offense is in high gear. Kurt Warner and the gang can put up points on you, and it’s hard to stick with the run when you’re working hard to keep up. So what is one to anticipate? I’m not sure. But I’m guessing the Eagles pass rush puts enough pressure on Warner to force a few mistakes and keep the game within reach for McNabb. And while I’m hardly certain, I’m willing to venture that the Cardinals defense really can’t keep up the pace for a third-straight week. That will give McNabb a chance to win the game and I have to think he’ll pull it off, if late. I’m thinking the Eagles score the go-ahead touchdown on the final meaningful play of the game, winning by a point.

Baltimore (+5.5) at Pittsburgh
If I’m gonna be wrong about just one of this weekend’s games (which is hardly a given; I might easily be wrong about both) I want it to be this one. Because if I’m right about this one and wrong about the other, that would mean a Pittsburgh-Arizona Super Bowl. And that would be me rooting for the Cardinals, which would suck, because a) I don’t want to root for the Cardinals (not that I want to root against them, mind you; it’s just that I have a complete inability to feel passionate about the Cardinals or anything remotely connected to the state of Arizona, which seems to me a rather pointless place, a geographic, sociological and political afterthought that should remain neatly hidden away in the corner of whatever desert it’s neatly hidden away in); and b) the Cardinals aren’t winning that matchup, which means I’d go in to Super Bowl XLIII essentially guaranteed to end up on the losing team’s side of things for the fourth year running, and that would be a class A drag. That’s a long way of saying I don’t foresee any outcome to this game other than a Steelers victory, though I sure hope I’m wrong. You know, under other circumstances, I might point out that the Ravens are a heck of a football team and note that it’s hard to beat a good team three times in a season (Pittsburgh narrowly won both regular season meetings). But the circumstances at hand, the ones that matter, are this: the Ravens are playing for the 18th consecutive weeks (during which time the Steelers have had not one but two bye weeks, one in the regular season and one in the first week of the playoffs); the Ravens are coming off a divisional round game at Tennessee that was absolutely brutal; and the Ravens are dealing with serious injuries to key players. I’ll believe you can win a game under those circumstances when I see it. And while I’d love to see just that, what I expect to see is a hard-fought game that ends in a three-point Pittsburgh victory.

You know how I know the Eagles are winning on Sunday? Because I’m picking the Ravens to win on Saturday. Wait. I know that doesn’t make sense. But here’s the deal: One of the four road teams (all of which go into the weekend as underdogs by at least one score) is gonna find a way to win. That’s about what you get in the divisional playoffs round; the home teams, coming off a bye, go 3-1 or 4-0. This year, it’s gonna be 3-1. The Cardinals certainly aren’t winning; they’ve already lasted a week longer than they should have. And the Chargers almost certainly aren’t beating the Steelers. That leaves the Eagles and the Ravens. And I can’t bring myself to pick the Eagles even though they’re in a game that could go either way. But I can find plenty of reasons to pick the Ravens. That means just one thing: the Ravens will lose and the Eagles will win. Because if there’s one thing you can reliably bet on, it’s me picking wrong. So there you go. Bet Philly. Bet ’em big. And expect none of the following to actually occur.

Baltimore (+3) at Tennessee
I need Baltimore to lose this game. Because although I’m absolutely filled (overflowing even) with respect and admiration for Ed Reed, and although I love to watch the man play, I simply cannot stand to read or hear his name one more goddamned time. Seriously. OK, yeah, he’s a great, great, great safety. I get it. Now, shut up, already. It’s getting to be like that fucking “Bad Day” song (except for how that “Bad Day” song is horrible and was completely insufferable from the get-go, unless you’re the kind of dolt who enjoys really weak songwriting — which, as it turns out, just about everyone is) where it doesn’t matter what’s going on someone just suddenly decides, “You know what would be great? If I were to simply shove Ed Reed’s name into this … business meeting, conversation about collecting used milk jugs, prostate exam … . ” And it isn’t, great. Really. And it has to stop before I completely lose my mind. So, OK, maybe I’d be cool with the Ravens winning if they could do it on the strength of a great performance by Joe Flacco. But I think we all know that ain’t happening. Not in the face of Tennessee’s defense, a unit that gave up just six yards per attempt this season, picked off 20 balls and allowed just 12 passing TDs all year (that’s three quarters of a passing touchdown per game). No, if the Ravens are winning this game, they’re winning it on defense. And that’s gonna mean a big contribution from Ed Reed. Of course, the same goes for Tennessee (the winning on defense part, not the big contribution from Ed Reed part; the Titans don’t want to see Reed do much at all). And the question becomes which quarterback do you trust more to have a bad day, the rookie Flacco or the traditionally inept Kerry Collins. In the end, I’ve gotta look to Collins, not so much because I expect great things from Flacco (in fact it’s always safe to bet against rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs), but because I expect Collins to get more opportunities to screw up. Flacco won’t be asked to win this game. Collins might. And that’s as likely as not to translate to six points for Ed Reed, which means a) another week of listening to incessant talk about him and b) a Baltimore win. Let’s say by three.

Arizona (+10) at Carolina
Another thing I don’t need to hear another damned word about: how Arizona can’t travel east and win. OK, yeah, the Cardinals haven’t won a game in an Eastern time zone city all season. That’s great. But the Cardinals aren’t losing this game to geography. They’re losing this game to the Panthers, who are quite simply better than them in all three phases of the game. They’re losing to a defense that does an excellent job of bringing pressure on quarterbacks. They’re losing to a balanced offense led by a veteran quarterback who’s incredibly unlikely to use the same snap count on down after down. The Cardinals would lose this game in Arizona just as surely as they’ll lose it in Carolina. The only difference is that if the Cardinals were at home, they might have a shot of keeping the difference to less than 10, whereas in Carolina they don’t. Panthers by two touchdowns.

Philadelphia (+4) at NY Giants
Yeah, it’s true: This should work out to be a great game between two teams that know each other very well and that should be poised to trade punches all afternoon long. And, honestly, the only outcome that could possibly surprise me is a blowout — in either team’s favor. So what does one find to hook a pick on? I’m not sure. But if I’ve gotta pick something, it’s Donovan McNabb. I like McNabb. I respect McNabb. But in the end I don’t trust McNabb. He’s as likely to lose a game for his team as he is to win it for them. And that’s not only a less than desirable quality in a quarterback, but as close to a formula for losing in the post-season as you’re likely to find. I’m taking the Giants straight up and the Eagles with the points, but I’ll be neither shocked nor disappointed if McNabb and the Eagles prove me wrong.

San Diego (+6) at Pittsburgh
You think Darren Sproles is good for 160 yards and two touchdown’s against Pittsburgh’s defense? That’s it. That’s the only question I’m gonna ask and the only one you need to answer in relation to this game. My answer, for the record, is “Hell, no.” The Chargers’ defense will ensure that it goes down to the fourth quarter (and maybe to the last possession), but in the end, the Steelers win it by four.

This is nuts, you know? Four games, four road teams favored. And, look, it’s the playoffs. These teams all ostensibly are among the NFL elite. You’d think at least one squad in that category would be able to manage a win at home. But when you look at these games — or at least when I look at them — it’s hard to see where the oddsmakers have got it wrong. They did, though. At least one home team, and maybe two, is gonna come out of this week with a win. Just don’t ask me which. Here’s a look at what not to expect.

Atlanta (-1) at Arizona
If Arizona had shown any inclination to run the ball during the regular season, you’d have to think they had a shot here. But they didn’t. And they probably don’t. The Cardinals have probably the least balanced offense of the 12 playoffs squads. They pass on most downs. And then on others, they pass. And, OK, yes, they’re quite good at throwing the football; the Cards averaged close to 300 yards per game in the air this season, second only to the Saints (who, one might note, didn’t qualify for post-season play, partially because, unlike the Cardinals, they weren’t part of one of the two weakest divisions in football). But if you’re the Falcons defense and you pretty much know what your opponent is going to do — what it needs to do to have any chance of winning — what’s your strategy? You play man-to-man underneath with a two or three deep zone. All day. Yeah, that invites the Cardinals to run the ball, but that’s OK, because the Cardinals aren’t going to run the ball. Not much, anyhow. And particularly not if the Falcons offense does what it’s best at, which is controlling the clock and the tempo of the game with run after run after run, with the threat that you can throw the ball, and throw it well, if you have to. (The Falcons were middle of the pack this season in passing yards per game, with only just over 200, but they were fifth best in the league in yards per attempt. In fact, Atlanta’s 7.93 yards per attempt topped Arizona’s 7.74.) If the Cards can manage to keep it close into the final five minutes of the game, they have a great chance of coming out ahead, but if you see Atlanta’s offense take the field looking to add to a lead of 10 or more at any point in the second half, it’s over. And that’s what I expect to see. Falcons by 14.

Indianapolis (-1) at San Diego
Sure, I can see the Chargers winning this game. In fact, I see the Chargers not only as the most likely of this weekend’s underdogs to come up with a win, but as perhaps the only team in the AFC standing between the Colts and another Super Bowl appearance (which would probably equate to hoisting another Lombardi Trophy). The problem I run into when I look at this game is that I’m not sure whether the Chargers are a team that got off to a rough (and kind of weird start), struggled some and then pulled it together to peak at exactly the right time — or just a plain old 8-8 squad that benefited from another team’s spectacular collapse and backed into the playoffs by winning an astoundingly weak division. It’s hardly going out on a limb to say that a lot of what happens here turns on the extent to which injured LaDainian Tomlinson is able to perform. If LT can keep the Colts defense honest, then the San Diego passing attack that led the league in yards per attempt (8.39) and tied New Orleans for the league lead in touchdowns (34), should be able to do some damage. Even then, though, it’s hard to imagine the Colts failing to keep up given that they’re facing one of the league’s worst pass defenses. They were certainly able to do just that back in November when Peyton Manning hung 255 yards and two touchdowns on the Chargers’ defense in San Diego en route to a 23-20 Indianapolis victory. So the key question, it seems to me, isn’t really about how healthy LT is but about how the Chargers are going to do this weekend something they haven’t managed to do all season: stop the pass. And how are they going to do that against the Colts, whose passing game is hitting on all cylinders. I’m thinking they’re not. So I’m thinking Indy wins this one — by three if the Chargers offense is working well and by 17 if it isn’t (you’ll not that both three and 17 are greater than one).

Baltimore (-3) at Miami
This game seems to me the most cut-and-dry of the weekend. Yeah, yeah, all credit to the Dolphins, a team that rebounded from a 1-15 finish in 2007 to win 11 games and take the AFC East crown away from New England (and to dispatch the Jets in the Meadowlands in week 17 in order to get there). There’s no taking anything away from that accomplishment. But this is the post-season. And this is Baltimore, a team that boasts the second best defense in the league, a team that surrendered 15.3 points per game this season and got there while facing some solid opposition. I just don’t see Miami’s bag of trick plays amounting to much in a matchup like this. And because of that, I don’t see the Dolphins standing half a chance. (Which probably means that in reality the Fins will be the only home team to win big all weekend). Ravens by a touchdown.

Philadelphia (-3) at Minnesota
There’s no secret about what the Vikings need to do in order to win: Establish the run and control the tempo of the game. If they can do that, they not only can win, they will win. And if they don’t they will lose. Because if the Eagles get a chance to unleash their pass rush on Tarvaris Jackson things are gonna get ugly for the Vikings offense — and they’re gonna get ugly quick. And the problem for Minnesota is that if I know that and you know that and every football fan in America knows that, chances are Andy Reid knows it to. That probably means the Eagles are gonna stack the box early on and dare Jackson to throw the ball. If he can do it — if he can get the ball to his receivers, and not surrender it to Asante Samuel, who will be facing man-to-man coverage — then he can open up running lanes for Adrian Peterson and put his team in a great position to win. Can Jackson do that? I haven’t yet seen anything that suggests he can. So I’m taking Philly and giving the points.

You know, I’d feel bad about the fact that I don’t have time to look very closely at this weeks games (what with holiday stuff and all), except that looking closely has done all of nothing for me the last few weeks. Or for much of this season, truth be told. So maybe a little bit of gut is in order. Or not. Here’s what my instincts — which, truth be told, are no more trustworthy than my highly questionable intellect — tell me to look for (but not to expect) from the final Sunday of the 2008 regular season.

St. Louis (+14.5) at Atlanta
This one’s simple. Atlanta’s in the playoffs and looking for a chance at the NFC South title and the conference two seed (which comes with a first-round bye). St. Louis has been done since about week two and is heading for the second or third pick in the 2009 draft. And part of the reason these teams are in the situations they’re in is that one features one of the best rushing offenses in the league, while the other features one of the worst rushing Ds. You figure out which is which. Falcons by no less than 17.

New England (-6) at Buffalo
The media, and Patriots fans, have been focused this week on the question of whether the Pats will get some help from the Jets or the Jaguars and cap a season that’s gone much better than it had any right to with a playoffs bid. Fair enough. But that leaves out the questions of whether New England will beat Buffalo, which is hardly a given. The Bills want this game, both because it gives them a chance to end a disappointing season on a high note and because it would mean eliminating a division rival that’s been picking on them for 10 straight meetings. And the Bills, though they’re not a great team, can play tough football when they put their minds to it. Chances are, the Pats, who come in with something real at stake, come out with a win. But I don’t expect it to be easy and I’m not giving six. The Patriots win straight up, but the Bills make them work for it and keep the margin to four.

Kansas City (+3) at Cincinnati
This, my friends, is exciting. Or it is if you’re a top five prospect in the 2009 draft, anyhow. The outcome here will determine whether the Chiefs pick second and the Bengals fourth or the Bengals third and the Chiefs fourth. So, you know, I hope all you highly rated offensive linemen, defensive linemen and running backs enjoy the game. No one else outside of Ohio and Missouri will be paying attention. Kansas City’s probably less awful, but Cincinnati’s certainly less the road team, so what the heck, I’ll take the Bengals straight up. But I’ll look for a push with the points.

Detroit (+10.5) at Green Bay
So it would appear as if 0-16 is an inevitability. Congratulations, Detroit, on another stunning achievement. Packers by two touchdowns.

Chicago (+2.5) at Houston
The Bears aren’t winning the NFC North (see Giants-Vikings below), nor are the backing into the playoffs with help from Philadelphia (which they might get) and Oakland (which is where Chicago’s hopes fall apart), but they’re gonna have to play like they have a legitimate shot. That’s the difference here. (OK, that and the fact that the Texans rarely pass up a chance to turn the ball over.) Chicago by a point.

Tennessee (-3) at Indianapolis
All in all, this is one of the better week seventeens we’ve seen in a while. Lots of meaningful matchups. And under other circumstances — specifically, had the Colts got off to a better start — this meeting of AFC South rivals might well have turned out to be one of the best of them. It didn’t. The actual circumstances are these: Tennessee is the AFC one seed. That’s not gonna change no matter what happens in this game. Indianapolis is the conference five seed. That’s not gonna change either. And both of these teams have to be prepared for the distinct possibility that they’re gonna meet again either two weeks hence in the divisional playoff round, or a week after that in the AFC Championship. That makes this about as close to a pre-season affair as you’ll see this late in the year. Probably the Colts come out ahead, because they’re at home, but you never really know. And I wouldn’t put money on it either way. Let’s just call it a push with the points.

NY Giants (-6.5) at Minnesota
The Giants can talk about playing hard all they like; the bottom line is that they don’t need a win here and the Vikings do. The Giants are locked into the NFC one seed. The Vikings are playing for the NFC North crown. That makes it a one-sided game in the second half, even if the New Jersey chooses to make it competitive in the first. Minnesota by seven.

Carolina (-3) at New Orleans
All Carolina needs to do is win and they get a week off and the guarantee of at least one home game in the playoffs. Seems like they should be able to pull that off against a Saints squad that has already thoroughly squandered every bit of its potential. Panthers by six.

Cleveland (+11) at Pittsburgh
Neither team has anything to play for. Pride? Heh. The Steelers have nothing to prove and the Browns has nothing to be proud of. I’ll take the Steelers straight up and the Browns with the points.

Oakland (+13) at Tampa Bay
Bucs by 14. I’m not sure what else to say.

Dallas (+1) at Philadelphia
This game wouldn’t be tough to pick if the Eagles were even remotely consistent. They’re not. Except that they always seem to find a way to lose when it matters. And officially this game matters. Philadelphia can conceivably still land in the post-season with a win and some substantial help. Still, I’m thinking even the players know there’s no way they’re threading that particular needle. So my guess is the Eagles go into this game believing there’s nothing on the line and come out with a win. Let’s say Philadelphia by a field goal.

Jacksonville (+12) at Baltimore
I was gonna say the only places where anyone believes the Jaguars have a chance in this game are New England and Jacksonville, but then I realized that the folks in Jacksonville probably aren’t paying close enough attention to have an opinion. Ravens by 10.

Miami (+2.5) at NY Jets
It’s entirely possible that the Dolphins will find a way to lose this game. Only, I just can’t see what that way might be. Miami wins by four and takes the AFC East title a season after finishing 1-15. (Enjoy the trip home, fellas. You earned it. But the Ravens are gonna rip your heads off next weekend.)

Seattle (+6.5) at Arizona
Part of me thinks the Cardinals have to win this game in order to go into the playoffs on an up note. And then another part of me asks whether I believe there’s any note Arizona can go in on that’s gonna give them a prayer of getting out of the first round. Seattle by three.

Washington (+3) at San Francisco
The 49ers are looking to go into the off-season with some hope for the future. The Redskins are gearing up for another off-season of spending like drunken sailors. What does that have to do with the probable outcome of this game? Nothing. Washington by six.

Denver (+8) at San Diego
Three weeks ago, the Broncos has a three-game lead in the AFC West. This week, they surrender the division title to the Chargers, who’ll go into the playoffs at 8-8, but who just might be the only team in the AFC that can stop the Colts. Weird. San Diego by 10.

A lot of people look at this weekend of football and see part one of an exciting final two weeks of the season. And, OK, they’re right. Truth be told, I see that, too, and I’m very excited about it. But you know what else I see? I see a lot of road teams giving a lot of points. I’m not excited about that at all. Because, look, I’m not picking teams like the Rams or the Raiders regardless of where they’re playing, but I’d be lying through my teeth if I were to say I feel even slightly comfortable taking the 49ers or the Texans. Hell, I’d be lying if I said I felt great about picking the Dolphins, the Eagles or the Jets. I just have a feeling it’s gonna be a weekend filled with bizarre results. Of course, if that’s what I’m thinking, you can pretty much count on everything happening exactly as the oddsmakers have called it. Here are some more details on what not to expect.

Arizona (+8) at New England
This one’s a bit simpler than Baltimore-Dallas. It goes like this: The Cardinals are traveling three time zones east to play a game at what, to Arizona players’ bodies, will be 10 a.m. The Cardinals are the NFC four seed and the NFC four seed they shall remain regardless of the outcome of this game. Accordingly, they’re resting a key offensive player (which tells us lot about their desire to win this game). And they’re going to be playing in what is expected to be awful weather. The Patriots, meanwhile, absolutely must win this game to keep their playoffs hopes alive. They’re banged up, but they’re resting nobody. And they’re playing on their field, at their time and in their element. It’s not at all hard to see where this is going. New England by 10.

Cincinnati (+3) at Cleveland
Here’s what I can tell you about this game: I won’t be watching it, I won’t be thinking about it, and I might not even read the scores when they pop up on my TV screen. How about that? Oh, also, the 4-10 home team is marginally less awful than that 2-11-1 visitors, so I’m gonna take the Browns to win. By three. Why? Because somebody else thinks that’s what they’ll do and that’s good enough for me.

Miami (-4) at Kansas City
Here’s one of the games where I’d pick the upset if I felt like there were really something to my bit above about too many road teams giving too many points this week. I mean, I think there is something to that, but the something is that it makes me uncomfortable, which has nothing to do with how this game will be played. I do like the Chiefs to make it a contest, but that’s mostly because pretty much everybody has been making games with Miami a contest. The Fins may well win the AFC East championship, but it won’t be because they played circles around opponents. If it happens, it will be because Miami plays just well enough to win most of the time. You can’t knock that. And you can’t expect anything less this week as the Dolphins face a Chiefs team that can’t seem to stop anything on defense (their D is ranked dead last in the league and that, as I hardly need to tell you, ain’t good) and that can’t get out of its own way on offense (Kansas City’s offensive unit is only the seventh worst in the league — suck on that, D — but that doesn’t get you far). I’m taking the Dolphins straight up, the Chiefs with the points.

New Orleans (-7) at Detroit
This is it for the Lions. A week from now, they travel to Green Bay to face an angry Packers team. So they either find a way to come out on top while hosting the Saints, who are out of the playoff mix and have nothing real to play for, or they pretty much guarantee themselves the NFL’s first ever 0-16 finish. Yeah, 0-16 it is, then. Saints by 14.

Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Tennessee
This should have been the game in which we found out if the Titans are for real. Because if they are, you’d have figured they’d be able to hold off the Steelers. Pittsburgh is, after all playing its second consecutive road game against a team with a defense almost as good as its own. And the first of those games was nothing short of brutal. Moreover, Titans D, has been slightly better than the Baltimore D in terms of average points allowed. And on the other side of the ball, the Titans do a good job of taking pressure off their quarterback with a solid ground game. That’s the only way you beat Pittsburgh when you don’t have an elite player lining up under center. The problem, however, is that Titans come into this game without two rather key elements of their defense, and that has to hurt. Those absences hurt Tennessee against both the run and the pass. And in a game in which a minor difference can have a major effect on the outcome, my sense is that the loss of Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch is going to mean a loss in the game for the Titans. I’m still expecting a hard-fought battle, but I suspect what we’ll see in the end is another close win in a big game for Pittsburgh. This time, the Steelers grab home field through the playoffs, which may be a ticket to Tampa February 1. Pittsburgh by three.

San Diego (+3) at Tampa Bay
OK, I’m going to ask this question one more time: Can someone please, please, please beat the Chargers and end their goddamned season already? Because I have no confidence in the Broncos’ ability to do it. Yeah, you’re right, the Buccaneers don’t lose at home. And they’re playing for a spot in the post-season. That’s good enough for me. Tampa by four.

San Francisco (-5.5) at St. LouisNot exactly the game of the week, is it? These two teams are among the three worst in the league in giveaway/takeaway differential. The Niners come in at a league worst -14; the Rams at a third-worst -11. So, you know, whichever team manages to hold onto the ball for a complete drive should be able to win this one by a touchdown. I’ll go with the … ah, let’s make it the 49ers.

Atlanta (+3) at Minnesota
Minnesota needs a win to clinch the NFC North title. Atlanta needs a win to move a full game ahead of Dallas in the chase for one of the conference’s wild card slots. Both teams are gonna do their best to avoid having to throw the ball here. The difference will come in the fact that the Vikings stop the run on D as well as they run the ball on offense. That puts Minnesota in the playoffs as the conference three seed and puts Atlanta back in the crowd with Dallas and quite possibly Philadelphia and Chicago all vying for the final wild card slot in week seventeen. Vikings by six.

Buffalo (+7) at Denver
The Bills could probably win this game if only they hadn’t forgot how to win round about the end of September. Broncos by four, with the winning score quite possibly coming on the last play of the game.

Houston (-7.5) at Oakland
The Raiders need to win this game. Not to prove anything. Just to try to keep themselves out of the top five in the 2009 draft. Because this team really can’t afford another high draft pick, and they seem to be constitutionally unable to trade down. Stay in school, Michael Crabtree. Texans by nine.

NY Jets (-4.5) at Seattle
Yes, the Seahawks can win this game. The Jets have played poorly for the past three weeks. They only beat Buffalo at home last weekend because the Bills are magnetically drawn to losing. Their defensive secondary is a joke. And their quarterback not only looks old and tired by actually admits he’s lost his mojo. And the Seahawks, who have been improving of late (if only slightly) will be looking for a win in their coaches’ final home game. So, hell yeah, the Seahawks can win. And I hope they do. It’s just that I’ll believe it when I see it. Jets by three.

Philadelphia (-5) at Washington
The Eagles need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Redskins don’t need anything, because their season has ended. I’m going with the team that needs it most. That’s Philly. By seven.

Carolina (+3) at NY Giants
Sunday afternoon features a battle for home field in the AFC. Sunday night gets a battle for home field in the NFC. Really, could we ask for better football than this in week sixteen? I like the Panthers. I like them a lot. Think they might be headed for the Super Bowl. But if they have to knock off the Giants in the Meadowlands to get there, it’s gonna have to happen January 18, because I just don’t see New Jersey dropping three in a row. Giants by a field goal.

Green Bay (+4.5) at Chicago
I’m not sure what happened to the Packers, but I do know it doesn’t matter at this point. Chicago has something to play for. Green Bay doesn’t. Chicago wins by seven.

I’m having a hell of a time finishing up my picks this week. Holidays. Snow. G4 running OS 10.3 in an 10.5 world. All that stuff. I’m gonna try to finish up the week while I watch the game tonight. Meanwhile, here’s what you shouldn’t expect to see in Dallas.

Baltimore (+4.5) at Dallas
What a beauty of a Saturday night game. Seriously. Two good teams trying to play their way into the post-season. The winner comes out with a good chance of landing a wild card spot. The loser comes away needing help to extend its season into January. There’s no point puzzling over which team needs the win more, because neither can afford a loss. So the question is whether you like the balanced and resurgent Cowboys or the defensive powerhouse Ravens. I don’t know what my answer is. Truly. A few weeks ago, I would have told you with certainty that Cowboys wouldn’t succeed here because their offense couldn’t hope to accomplish anything against a Ravens D that, in an average game, surrenders only 78 yards on the ground, 180 yards through the air and a scant 15 points. And the thing is, I still believe the Cowboys will struggle to score. Problem is, I also like the Cowboys D to hold off the Ravens O. The Dallas defense isn’t as stifling as the Baltimore D, but it’s pretty good and it has the advantage of not being up against a particularly potent offensive unit. Eventually, one of these offenses is going to have to break through enough to make the difference in the game, but it’s hard to know whether to believe that breakthrough will come from the home team with the better offense or the road team facing the less accomplished D, the team looking to build on a big, emotional win or the team looking to rally following a heartbreaking loss. Honestly, I won’t know until I see it unfold on the field (which is one of the reasons I find this game so exciting). What I will tell you is this: My sense is that the game comes down to whether Tony Romo can avoid throwing picks. Romo has a bad habit of throwing the ball away. And the Ravens, who have 22 picks on the season, are a team that will make you pay dearly if you put the football up for grabs. If Romo holds on, so should the Cowboys. If he gives the ball away, he gives the game away. Because it’s the safe out, I’m gonna take the home team straight up and the visitors with the points. But, really, it’s a coin toss and I have no way of guessing which side will land up.

Another week when I know I’m not wrapping things up ahead of the Thursday night game. So here’s what I’ve got for this gem.

Indianapolis (-6) at Jacksonville
I was one of the people who looked at the schedule in advance of the 2008 season and saw this game as quite possibly the most exciting matchup of the week. I thought these teams could be competing for the AFC South title. Or maybe one of them would have secured the division and would be playing for home field and the other would be fighting for a wild card spot. At the very least, I figured one team would have a solid shot at playing spoiler as the other worked toward the post-season. Yeah, as it works out I was wrong about pretty much all of it. Neither team is winning the south, and only one is making the playoffs at all. And yeah, OK, Jacksonville conceivably could hurt the Colts’ chances of securing a Wild Card berth. But probably not. Indianapolis has about half a dozen doors into the post season to choose from. One of them is gonna swing open even if the Colts somehow manage to lose this game. And the thing is, the Colts aren’t losing this game. You’d think they could, what with Marvin Harrison out and Joseph Addai questionable, and considering the fact that Jacksonville should be able to slow down the game a bit with effective running and keep it close with good-enough run D. But you’d be wrong. Because Jacksonville can’t get anything right this season. Put them up against a team that isn’t running well and they’ll find a way to surrender 400 yards in the air. Or they’ll commit fully to the pass and watch a Colts offense that averages 80 rushing yards a game put together a 200-yard effort on the ground. Or they’ll play well on defense all around, only to watch their offense surrender a couple of key turnovers that give the Colts short fields and easy scores. It’s just been that kind of season. And it isn’t changing here. Indy wins by four and wraps up a wild card spot, not to mention the five seed, which means an easy first-round matchup with Denver (or San Diego, maybe).

Well, this week’s off to a good start. Straight up, anyhow. I knew the Bears were Only don’t count on that continuing. These games are tough and, honestly, I’m mostly just making it up as I go along. Here’s all the stuff I’m destined to be wrong about this time around.

Tampa Bay (+3) at Atlanta
Tell me whether Jeff Garcia’s playing and I’ll tell you which team wins this game. As I see it, it’s really that simple. Yeah, the Falcons are at home and they’re playing to maintain a shot at a wild card spot, but the Bucs are looking to play their way into the post-season, too (a win here would all but assure Tampa of a slot). And the fact of the matter is that as well as Atlanta has played thus far this season, the Bucs are a much better team than the Falcons. Or at least they are with Garcia under center. It’s true that Tampa’s defense has had trouble stopping the run. That killed them Monday night in Charlotte and it could very well hurt them again as they face yet another of the league’s best rushing offenses. Unlike Carolina, however, I don’t see Atlanta overcoming a two-turnover deficit; and I think they’re likely to end up with one. The Falcons don’t give the ball up much generally, but nearly every team commits turnovers against Tampa’s D. And if you give Garcia extra opportunities, he usually finds a way to beat you. So as I see if, if Garcia’s in the game, the Bucs should come out ahead. If he’s not, they probably won’t. I’m assuming he’ll play, so I’m taking Tampa Bay to win it outright.

Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Baltimore
Oh, man, this should be a fun game to watch. Brutal, but fun. These teams are battling for the AFC North title. They feature the two best defenses in the league. And as you may have heard, they don’t really seem to like each other. I honestly can’t begin to guess which team is gonna come out ahead, except that I’ll likely be whichever one sees more of it’s starters survive. Since the Ravens are at home, I’ll take them to win by the same margin by which they lost in Pittsburgh in week four (three points). And since I really don’t care which team wins, I’ll predict with near certainty that I’m going to have a blast watching this one.

Denver (+7.5) at Carolina
The Broncos take another step toward becoming the least relevant team in the AFC playoff picture. (It’s quite possible the Broncos will win the AFC West title at 9-7 or even 8-8 — possibly while one or even two 11-5 AFC East teams sit out the post-season. I’ve got no gripes with the playoff system, mind you. But it does make for some less-than-ideal matchups from time to time, doesn’t it?) Panthers by six.

Washington (-7) at Cincinnati
Sure, I’ll give the touchdown. What the hell, make it two. The only thing I won’t give to this game (or any game involving the 2008 Bungles) is another second of my time and attention.

Tennessee (-3) at Houston
Three? Seriously? That’s the line on this game. Titans by three? Because the Texans do what well, now? Tennessee by 10.

Detroit (+17.5) at Indianapolis
Yeesh, gents, 0-16 is really starting to look like a probability, isn’t it? From here, the Lions go home to face the Saints then finish the season in Green Bay. Do you think they can win either of those games? The Colts, meanwhile, look to me like the most dangerous team in the AFC. If I had to pick an AFC Super Bowl team today, it would probably be Indy. The worst part of this is that it brings up the very real possibility of a Manning bowl. And while I respect the talent of both Peyton and Eli — I said I respect their talent, not that like them or respect them as people — the mere thought that I might have to spend two weeks looking at and listening to their absolutely insufferable father is already starting to ruin my 2009. (If Colts-Giants comes to pass and someone out there could just cast some kind of sleeping spell on Archie for those two weeks, I’d be gigantically obliged.) Indy by … I don’t know … 28, maybe?

Green Bay (-2) at Jacksonville
Look, it’s the shoulda-coulda-woulda bowl. This game might have mattered if both (or either) of the teams in it had played two thirds as well as everyone expected them to. But they didn’t, so we get a close matchup of two squads that won’t have anything exciting to report until late April. Since the Packers are arguably the less disappointing team, I’ll take them. Green Bay by a field goal.

San Diego (-5) at Kansas City
You know what truly hurts about this game? The fact that the Chargers are gonna win. Which means that they’ll be 6-8 and, thanks to the Broncos’ inability to wrap up the damned division, still in the playoffs hunt. For God’s sake, can someone please put this team out of my misery? San Diego by a touchdown.

San Francisco (+6.5) at Miami
Another West Coast team travels three time zones just to get its clock cleaned. Dolphins by nine.

Buffalo (+7.5) at NY Jets
I’ve been trying all week to come up with a reason to believe that my sense that the Bills can compete in this game is anything but a hunch colored by my extreme distaste for the New Jersey Jets. I haven’t succeeded. The Bills score a late touchdown to make it look closer than it really is, but the Jets still win by six.

Seattle (-3) at St. Louis
One of these squads will have increased its win total by 50 percent by the time this game’s over. Unless there’s a tie. So that’s pretty exciting, right? Seattle by three.

Minnesota (+3) at Arizona
The Vikings will be able to field a full defense for this game. Lot of good it’s gonna do them. Having a great run D just doesn’t help all that much when you face an offense that does most of it’s moving and scoring through the air. Arizona’s solid run defense, on the other hand, should probably come very much in handy against a Minnesota offense that pretty much only succeeds on the ground. Cards by six.

New England (-7) at Oakland
The Raiders offense, the second worst in the league, averages less than 14 points a game. And that average has been trending downward. The Patriots could put their entire D on injured reserve Sunday morning and it would be late in the fourth quarter before the Raiders’ offense figured out there wasn’t anyone on the other side of the field. And they’d still fail to score. New England by 14.

NY Giants (+3) at Dallas
So T.O. is being T.O. and, consequently, the Cowboys are in complete disarray. There’s a shock. I mean, who ever could have seen this coming? (Hands down Donovan and Jeff, it was a rhetorical question.) Is that reason to believe the Cowboys will lose a home game when they absolutely have to win to keep their wild card hopes alive? No. But you know what is? The fact that the Cowboys simply can’t hold on to the ball. OK, and the fact that the Giants (recent distractions notwithstanding) are probably twice as good a team as the ‘Boys. So, you know, New Jersey wins by a touchdown and clinches a first-round bye.

Cleveland (+14) at Philadelphia
I guess I’ll be wrapping up my holiday baking Monday night. Thanks, NFL. Sorry Romeo. Eagles by 17.

I’m definitely not gonna finish up the week before kickoff tonight, so here’s what you shouldn’t expect from New Orleans-Chicago. I’ll follow up with the rest of my hopelessly off-base predictions for this week later tonight or tomorrow.

New Orleans (+3) at Chicago
On paper, both of these 7-6 teams are still in the playoff hunt. In reality, only the Bears, who can still win the NFC North title, have a legitimate shot of extending their season into January. They need to win this game to keep their hopes alive, however. Plus, they’re at home. And they come in with a giveaway/takeaway differential of +6 as compared to the Saints’ -4 (and, notably, the gap is largely result of the Bears’ DBs picking off a lot of balls and Drew Brees throwing his fair share of picks — not an unreasonable number of them, but enough). So I suppose I’ll take the home team and look for them to win it by four.