This Football Blog

It feels like upside-down week to me. I can’t tell you why. It’s just a hunch. And, of course, you can’t pick based on hunches. Or I suppose you can, it’s just not terribly smart. And I like to at least pretend to be … let’s just say unstupid. So don’t look for anything shocking here. Just the usual unreliable picks. And maybe a little more than the usual caution against counting on anything I say to so much as resemble what will actually play out on the field come Sunday.

Seattle (+9.5) at Dallas
No, last week didn’t do much to change my overall opinion of the Cowboys. I still think they’re headed for 8-8, maybe 9-7. That said, there’s not a whole lot of reason to think the Seahawks can win this, or frankly that Seattle’s semi-healthy quarterback won’t get the same treatment on this visit to Dallas that he got the last Thanksgiving. And I’m not sure Hasselbeck can actually survive a seven-sack afternoon at this point. I’m quite sure the Seahawks can’t. I’m taking Dallas and giving the points.

St. Louis (+4) at Detroit
You know what’s a sure sign that a team is really, really awful? When it’s getting four points from the Detroit Lions. On any field. If the Rams don’t find a way to win this weekend, it may be 2010 before they record their next victory. Sorry, St. Louis. Lions by three.

Miami (+3.5) at NY Jets
As I see it, there are two ways to look at this game, and both of them point to the Jets winning. You can look at this thing as a coin toss, which is where you get if you look at the stats. These squads are fairly evenly matched; they’re division rivals who are gonna show up to play, and both probably think they still have a shot at the AFC East title (even though they don’t). So if it’s a coin toss, you go with the home team. That’s New Jersey. Or you can look at the game as the second part of a season series, the first of which went to Miami. In that case, you have to take into consideration the fact that it’s exceedingly hard, unless you’ve got a juggernaut of a squad, to sweep a division rival in the regular season. That point of view also favors the Jets. Now, maybe you’re thinking something along the lines of “blah, blah, blah, Jets won’t be able to stop the wildcat.” And I get that point of view. Sort of. Thing, is, I also dismiss that point of view. Because, look, Miami doesn’t really run a wildcat. They mostly just do direct snaps to the running back out of a single wing formation. And the Jets can mount an effective defense against that.. I expect them to do just that here, and to come out ahead, by let’s say four, as a result.

San Francisco (+12.5) at Indianapolis
The crazy thing about this game is that it actually represents a step up in the level of competition from the Colts’ last cakewalk. So that should make for a compelling two or three minutes of football before this thing is officially over. Indianapolis by 20.

Cleveland (+13) at Chicago
The Browns rank last in the league on defense and second to last on offense. I’m pretty sure it was all Erin O’Brien’s fault. And with that problem fixed, I’m looking for Cleveland to have a huge day. I won’t be at all surprised if the Browns end up losing this one by as few 14 points.

Denver (+3.5) at Baltimore
If you believe the numbers, which I do, these teams are about as evenly matched as you’ll find this weekend in the NFL. That tells me this game’s gonna come down to one key play. And my guess is, it’s going to be a turnover. So I’ll take the Broncos, who are slightly better than the Ravens both at holding onto the ball and taking it away, to come away with a win straight up.

Houston (-3.5) at Buffalo
You can’t win in the NFL when you give up 173 yards a game on the ground. Houston by a field goal.

NY Giants (-1) at Philadelphia
I should probably pick the Eagles. I’m pretty sure I would pick the Eagles if I were smart. Because, look, it’s a divisional game between two teams that are largely evenly matched, both of them dealing with an ever-growing number of injuries, and it’s being played in Philadelphia. That’s all I should need to know. Trouble is, I have a hard time picking a team to win a tough game coming off a short week, which the Eagles are doing. Bigger trouble is that Philly might have to go without Brian Westbrook. And if he can’t play, it’s not an even matchup. So, while I’m pretty sure it’s a stupid move that I’m almost certain to regret, I’m taking the Giants, though if they win it, they’ll probably do it by exactly the one point they’re giving.

Jacksonville (+3) at Tennessee
Can someone explain to me how it is that the winless Tennessee Titans are actually giving three points in this game? Do the oddsmakers really have that much faith in Vince Young? Because I don’t. Jaguars by nine.

Oakland (+16.5) at San Diego
The Raiders have one of the worst run defenses in the league. They’ve given up a league-high 11 rushing touchdowns this season. So while I’m not exactly in awe of the Chargers this season, I have a hard time imagining they’ll lose by less than two touchdowns here. San Diego wins; Oakland barely covers.

Minnesota (+3) at Green Bay
You know, maybe it’s just me, but I’m having a hard time figuring out any interesting angle on this game. I mean, I know there must be some kind of storyline here, but I look and look and look at the thing and I just draw a blank. I do think Green Bay will win it, probably by a field goal. So there’s that.

Carolina (+10) at Arizona
If the Panthers were a better team, you’d have heard a lot of talk this week about them looking for revenge for last season’s NFC Championship loss to the Cardinals. Instead, all you’re likely to hear about Carolina looking for are a new coach and a new quarterback. Arizona by 13

Atlanta (+10) at New Orleans
In which the Saints effectively sew up the NFC South title. New Orleans by 12.

Awful lot of road teams giving an awful lot of points. I don’t like it one damned bit. Spells upsets. Only, I can see hardly any coming. In fact, I like a few of the road teams that are getting a healthy number of points to win their games straight up. So you know where that’s headed. Disaster (for me). That’s where. Here’s what you definitely shouldn’t expect.

Minnesota (+4) at Pittsburgh
You can talk all day about every aspect of this game, but in the end it comes down to the Vikings defense and how well it can perform if it has to go without Antoine Winfield. Things didn’t go so well for Minnesota last week after Winfield left the game injured (or, OK, they went less well than the Vikings would have liked, even if it wasn’t a complete disaster). With a week to prepare for playing without their star cornerback, Minnesota could potentially fare better. Or they could face a Pittsburgh squad that’s had a week to prepare to exploit the hole in their secondary. It’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out. I’m gonna assume that the Vikings D is about more than one guy. And I’m gonna assume that even if they have to go without Winfield, Minnesota can continue to be a team that knows how to take the ball away from opponents. That’s huge. Because Pittsburgh’s offense has shown no ability this season to hold onto the football. And with teams as closely matched as these two are (on Pittsburgh’s home turf, anyhow), turnover differential has a way of making the difference. I’m going with the underdog Vikings to win it outright.

San Francisco (+3) at Houston
I can’t see as I see this game one bit differently than the oddsmakers do. I see two hideously unbalanced, middle-of-the-road teams. Houston has an admirable offense and no D. San Fran has a solid D and an O that can’t find its way from one end of the field to the other. So what does that give you? A long and unspectacular game in which the home team comes out ahead by the default three points. So I’ll take the Texans straight up and expect a push with the points.

San Diego (-4.5) at Kansas City
The Chiefs have been rebuilding since the off-season. The Chargers were sent a message Monday night that they’re gonna need to start rebuilding soon themselves. But they haven’t got it yet. And they’re not gonna get it this week. San Diego by three.

Green Bay (-7) at Cleveland
The Browns got the flu. Got that? The whole team got the flu. So I made this ridiculous pick for you. Assuming Cleveland is able to field something resembling a team, Green Bay wins and easily covers.

Indianapolis (-13) at St. Louis
OK, let me start by saying that, yes, I think the Colts, as usual, are one of the best teams in the NFL. And now that we’ve got that out of the way, I feel I should be able to say without raising any hackles anywhere that if I hear or read anyone state, hint or imply that the beatdown the Colts are going to put on the hapless Rams this weekend goes so much as half an ant shit (do ants shit?) toward proving Indy’s greatness, I’m going to find them and vomit directly in their stupid, ugly face. Understood? Wonderful. Colts win and cover.

New England (-14.5) vs. Tampa Bay (at Wembley Stadium, London)
Do I need to go any farther than to point out that the Buccaneers allow more yards per passing attempt (8.5) than any team in the league and have allowed more passing touchdowns (13) than all except Detroit and the Patriots’ last victims? I should think not. Jetlag be damned. New England by 28.

Buffalo (+7) at Carolina
Every week there’s one game I can hardly stand to so much as think about. This week, it’s this one. So here’s what I’ve got off the top of my head: The Bills are coming off what has to have been a huge, emotional victory (though I don’t remember anyone calling it Buffalo’s Super Bowl), and heading off on a second consecutive road trip to face an NFC team that almost certainly has more over the Bills than the meager difference in their records (2-3 vs. 2-4) lets on. If that ain’t a formula for a Carolina win, I’m not sure what is. I wouldn’t give a touchdown in either direction with these two teams, so I’ll take the Panthers to win straight up, Bills to cover.

NY Jets (-6) at Oakland
Richard Seymour says the Raiders are gonna make the playoffs. I’d be happy enough if they could just win this game. But, honestly, I sorta suspect Richard and I both are in for a bit of disappointment. Jets by four.

Atlanta (+4) at Dallas
Jerry Jones is looking at this game as an opportunity for his team to make a statement and establish “real credibility.” I’ve gotta tell you, I’m not feeling it. This game appears to be fairly even on paper. If the Cowboys were healthy at running back, they’d have a shot at exploiting Atlanta’s still relatively weak run defense. But they ain’t. So they don’t. That means this game comes down either to home field or turnovers. We all know which team’s at home. Do you know which one has a plus-five giveaway/takeaway ratio? Or which has a minus-four? Here’s a hint: I’m taking the Falcons to win this one straight up, and I’m expecting a classically ill-timed Tony Romo pick to make the difference.

Chicago (+1.5) at Cincinnati
Everyone’s waiting to see if Ced Benson will visit some payback upon the Bears. That’s fine. And, honestly, I’d kinda like to see it happen. But I think it’ll be Cincinnati’s pass offense that ultimately does Chicago in this week. We’ll see. Bengals by four.

New Orleans (-6) at Miami
There’s an idea out there that Miami might be the team to end New Orleans’ winning streak. Unpredictable Dolphins offense. Saints coming off a big conference win to take on a weak, non-conference opponent. Pride goeth … and all that wishful thinking sort of stuff. It’s not gonna happen. I’m taking the Saints and giving the points.

Arizona (+7) at NY Giants
Well, the thinking goes, if the Giants could get torched by the Saints’ pass offense, they can probably get … . Huh? Is that really how we’re thinking now? Really? Because, you know this right? That it’s a lot easier to defend the pass when you’re opponent has no running game. Like, a lot. Giants by seven.

Philadelphia (-7) at Washington
The Redskins have vowed not to fire Jim Zorn during the season. I’m sure the coach is absolutely thrilled. The enormous boost of confidence the Native Americans are certain to get from that vote of confidence notwithstanding, it’s hard to imagine the Eagles taking it on the chin from yet another wreck of a football team. Eagles win, but only by six (it is a division game and Philly is on the road for a second straight week after all).

It’s all starting to make sense to me. Or so I think. Five weeks by the boards. The stats start to even out (that is self-correct for oddball performances and overstrong/overweak matchups). And I start to feel like I know what’s going on in the NFL. That’s about as dangerous as it gets. Here’s a bunch of stuff that I shouldn’t be nearly so shocked as I will be to see not come to pass:

Houston (+4.5) at Cincinnati
Do we get the Texans D that gave up 197 yards to Chris Johnson in week two or the one that’s hemmed in the (ahem) Raiders and Cardinals the last two weeks? I’m gonna go out on a limb and guess Houston is about to get a lesson in the differences between Ced Benson and Beanie Wells. Bengals by a touchdown.

Detroit (+13) at Green Bay
Let me take a second or two to think about whether I have anything approaching a meaningful insight on this game to offer. Ummmmmm … nope. I’ve got nothing. I think I’ll just take the Packers and give the points.

St. Louis (+10) at Jacksonville
You know, until it became clear that the Lions were actually gonna pull it off last season, I was fairly confident that no NFL team would ever go 0-16. This season, I think there are two teams that can duplicate the achievement. The Rams are one of them. Jacksonville by 13.

Baltimore (+2.5) at Minnesota
The Ravens need a win badly to stop their two-game slide; and they’re gonna need their defense to get them there. Specifically, they’re gonna need their vaunted run D to bounce back quickly from a week five matchup that saw Ced Benson put up 120 yards (and a touchdown) against them. If the Ravens can somehow figure out a way to limit Adrian Peterson‘s output, they might be able to force Brett Favre into making the two or three bad decisions that can kill you when you face a team like Baltimore. If they can’t, they’re dead. Because while you might be able to outgun some teams with run-oriented offenses, that’s not something you can hope to do when your offense is squaring off against Minnesota’s D, particularly not in the Vikings’ stadium. The Ravens may be up to the task (and if they’re not, I can’t tell you who is). But I’m not willing to count on it. Not after last week. Vikings by a point.

NY Giants (+3.5) at New Orleans
The good news for me is, this is the only week all season when I have to pick against at least one of these teams. The bad news is, I’ve got a pretty good feeling I’m gonna get screwed either way on this one. I’ve looked this game over, under and sideways interminably and I’m drawing blank. These teams are so evenly matched it’s scary. And what I usually do in a situation like this is look at giveaway/takeaway differential, but that’s no help here either. The Saints are at plus-seven; the Giants are at plus-six. That leaves me with the fallback: When all else is equal, you take the home team. Saints by a field goal.

Cleveland (+14) at Pittsburgh
For the record, you’re not gonna win a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers if your starting quarterback can’t manage to do better than 2 of 17 for 23 yards. Just, you know, in case anyone was unsure on that point. Steelers go out front by about 30, lose focus in the second half and still end up covering, if just barely.

Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
The Panthers main problem this season has been their inability to hold on to the ball. That shouldn’t pose much of a problem against a team that wouldn’t know what to do with the damned thing if you handed it to them a foot and a half away from your goal line. Carolina by 10.

Kansas City (+6.5) at Washington
I’d love to take the Chiefs here. And, hell, Washington’s bad enough that I could probably find some way to rationalize picking against the Native Americans despite the fact that the rebuilding Chiefs clearly have a lot of work to do. But the thing is, the Chiefs clearly have a lot of work to do. So I’ll take Washington, though there’s no way in hell I’m giving six and half.

Philadelphia (-14) at Oakland
Really, Greg? Ya think? Eagles minus however many points I have to give.

Arizona (+2.5) at Seattle
This is kinda like New Jersey-New Orleans in reverse. On this one, the good news for me is that while both of these teams will screw me this week just like they’ve done every week this season, it’ll only cost me once. So there’s that. Look, the part of me that says “the Cardinals were in the stinkin’ Super Bowl, like eight months ago” figures Arizona has to be better than Seattle. So does the part of me that has absolutely no use or faith in the Seahawks. But then the part of me that looks at the stats and the trends says Seattle’s been a marginally better team. On both sides of the ball. Seattle can’t stop the run worth a damn. But Arizona can’t run worth half a damn. Plus the Seahawks are at home. So what can I do? Seattle by a field goal.

Tennessee (+9) at New England
Two observations about this game, neither of them earth shattering. One: Things ain’t getting any easier for the Titans, who clearly are in for a very long season. Two: The thing about last week that’s been lost in all the “what’s wrong with New England” chatter is that the Broncos are simply a better team than a lot of people still give them credit for being. The only thing wrong with the Patriots is that they haven’t hit their stride yet, which makes it hard to beat good teams on the road. Two gimmes leading into the week eight bye should help them tune it up and get ready for the second half of the season. Patriots by 14.

Buffalo (+9.5) at NY Jets
It’s as simple as this: If you can’t manage more than three points at home against Cleveland, you’re not gonna go into the Meadowlands and compete with the Jets. That’s it. That’s all I’ve got to say. New Jersey wins and covers.

Chicago (+3.5) at Atlanta
The Falcons can’t stop the run. The Bears can’t stop the pass. That adds up an early night (i.e. a fast game). It also adds up to the home team winning, no matter where this game is played. That’s Atlanta, so it’s the Falcons. Let’s say by four.

Denver (+4) at San Diego
I may have mentioned this somewhere before, but just in case: It’s my opinion that the Broncos are a better team than a lot of people still give them credit for being. (And, look, that went for me, too, a week ago. Because while I’ve been saying this team was better than people realized since the off-season, I admit I didn’t know how much better.) Also, the Chargers are a much worse team than many observers have yet realized. Thence the absurd backward spread on this game. Broncos by six.

Too many big spreads. Too many home teams getting points. That’s what I see this week. And I don’t like any of it one little bit. Even if it doesn’t turn out to be upset week, which could happen, I’m thinking a handful of these games are guaranteed to bite someone on the ass. That someone might as well be me. Here’s what not to expect.

Cincinnati (+8.5) at Baltimore
Yeah, I’m not giving eight and a half points here. Partly because close games are Cincinnati’s thing this season (the average margin of victory in Bengals games has been four and a half points). It’s also because I think Cincy is a better team, particularly on defense, than they’re getting credit for being. The Bengals don’t have great stats, but they do have an ability to bring pressure on D. That ultimately won’t be enough to stop Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense, but it should be enough to make the Bengals competitive until very close to the end of yet another game. I’m taking Baltimore straight up (because I’m not a complete idiot), but I like Cincy to keep the difference to more like three or four.

Cleveland (+6) at Buffalo
I’ve got this weird feeling that Cleveland is gonna manage to win this game. I’m not picking it that way, because it’s just an odd hunch. And it’s mostly based on the dread that I might have to endure a week of media speculation that the Braylon Edwards trade< might somehow amount to "addition by subtraction" for the Browns. That ain't the kind of thing I'm ever gonna base a pick on, though. So while I do like Cleveland to keep it closer than six, I'm taking the home team straight up. Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Detroit
The Lions couldn’t have won this game with Matt Stafford under center. For once, the Steelers not only build an early lead, but hold it. Pittsburgh by 14 anyway, and very likely more.

Washington (+4) at Carolina
OK, I’ll admit that I’m one of those nutjobs still holding on to the belief that the Panthers somehow have to be better than their 0-3 start. But even if I weren’t, I’d still probably pick them to win here, because there’s nothing remotely nutty about believing the Native Americans are was worse than their 2-2 record. Carolina straight up; Washington with the points.

Dallas (-8) at Kansas City
A second straight road game for the Cowboys, who will be without two key offensive contributors. Perhaps worse still for Dallas, Tony Romo will still be taking the snaps. Although I’m picking the Cowboys straight up over the still-rebuilding Chiefs, I’m not giving eight points. And I won’t be shocked (surprised, yes; shocked, no) if there’s an outright upset.

Tampa Bay (+15) at Philadelphia
The Eagles are getting some key players back on the field with this game. That’s nice. But it’s mostly nice in a long-term sense. It’s immaterial here. Because this game isn’t going to be won by skill players. It’s gonna be won in the trenches. And when it comes to line play, on both sides of the ball, Philly is so vastly superior to Tampa Bay it’s kind of a joke. I’m taking the Eagles and, while I’d never give this much with actual money on the line, giving the stinkin’ 15.

Minnesota (-10) at St. Louis
The Rams don’t have the league’s worst run defense, but it’s pretty far down on the list. And when you’re giving up 135 yards per game and 4.1 per carry and you’re preparing for a visit from Adrian Peterson, you’re not looking at a good day. I’m taking the Vikings and giving the points.

Oakland (+15.5) at NY Giants
I swear, if I have to read or hear one more goddamned word about how much talent the Raiders have, I’m gonna puke. OK, so there are some talented players in Oakland. Great. There’s also one gigantic bust of a first overall draft pick lining up under center. You can’t win in the NFL when you’ve got that much invested in a guy who clearly has no interest in behaving like a professional. It only gets worse when the one player you might actually hope could carry your offense isn’t gonna be on the field. So while I still believe the ever-worsening injury situation in New Jersey is gonna become a serious problem sooner or later, it won’t be this week. Giants by 17.

Atlanta (+2.5) at San Francisco
I still don’t believe in San Francisco. But the stats, which have started to paint a picture, tell me the Niners are slightly better than the Falcons on both sides of the ball. And I know, even without the stats, that Atlanta still can’t stop the run. Add in a slightly better giveaway/takeaway differential and home field advantage and you’ve got yourself a San Francisco win. I’m gonna guess by about three.

Houston (+5.5) at Arizona
I’ll be honest: I started to think about this game only to discover that I really, really didn’t want to. I got far enough to realize I’m not sure that either offense is particularly well suited to exploit the weaknesses in the other team’s defense. And to wonder if an Arizona offense that’s had trouble protecting the ball can reasonably be expected to win, even at home, by more than a field goal. So I’m taking Arizona to win, Houston to cover. But that’s not really based on anything other than what I think I know (which is worth exactly nothing).

New England (-3.5) at Denver
I don’t have anything to say about the coaching matchup. It’s been done to death. So I’ll just focus on the teams. And I’ll start by pointing out that I’ve been impressed enough with Denver thus far this season to conclude that the Broncos are gonna win the AFC West. But they’re gonna do it with a record of 10-6 or 11-5, not 14-2. That’s my way of saying the Broncos are due to lose a game or two. Also, the Denver D is never going to be able to sustain the ridiculously low points-allowed average of 6.5 per game it’s posted so far this season. That’s not about Denver; it’s about the law of averages. As for the Patriots, well, it seemed like the offense was starting to click for real last week. I expect it to click some more here. And I expect the Pats to bring the Broncos back down to eart in the process. As long as New England can hold onto the ball (Denver has an impressive giveaway takeaway differential of 7, that vs. New England’s +2), the Patriots should be able to put this game away by the end of the third quarter. Patriots by a touchdown.

Jacksonville (-1) at Seattle
On one hand, I’m not buying the notion that wins over eternally inept Houston and mysteriously struggling (but struggling just the same) Tennessee somehow add up to Jacksonville being a better team than they appeared to be through the first two weeks of the season. On the other, I’m not buying anything the Seahawks are selling. I’ll take the Jaguars and give the point.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at Tennessee
If Tennessee slips to 0-5 while Indianapolis reaches 5-0, the Titans become the first team to officially start looking forward to 2010. Good luck with the off-season, Tennessee. Indy by a touchdown.

NY Jets (-1.5) at Miami
Sure, Miami can win this game. As long as Chad Henne can hold up under intense pressure. Something tells me new addition Braylon Edwards won’t be the only New Jersey player to punch someone in the face this week. Jets by four.

Look at this. Picks on a Friday, even. That doesn’t make them any more accurate, mind you. Just earlier. Do I get points for that? Here’s what not to expect:

Detroit (+10) at Chicago
Boy, it was awfully nice that Washington managed to be bad enough for Detroit to break its 19-game losing streak last weekend. I wonder how long the losing streak that starts here will last. Bears by a touchdown.

Seattle (+10.5) at Indianapolis
The Seahawks are getting a bit healthier. So that’s good news for Seattle fans, I suppose. Unfortunately, it’s about the extent of the good news they’re likely to get this week. Colts by at least 13.

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville
Sooner or later, the Titans are gonna win a game. But if it isn’t here, it might not be until mid-November. I suspect it’ll be here. Tennessee by a field goal.

NY Giants (-8.5) at Kansas City
I’m not comfortable with the spread on this game. New Jersey’s gonna win. There’s little question about that. But the Giants, who remain banged up, opened with a pair of tough divisional battles then got the gift of a cakewalk home game against one of the weakest teams in the league. I just sort of wonder if they might not come out flat in this non-conference, throwaway game. The Chiefs, hungry though they may be, don’t have the guns to pull off this big an upset, even in their home stadium. But they may catch the Giants napping early, build up a lead and only lose by four to seven points.

Tampa Bay (+7) at Washington
In week three, Washington managed to answer the seemingly unanswerable question, “How can anyone lose to Detroit?” Perhaps this week they’ll figure out how to lose to Tampa Bay. I rather doubt it, considering that the Bucs can neither score nor stop opponents from scoring (not a good combination). Still, considering the fact that Washington’s offense has demonstrated an inability to locate the end zone (four touchdowns in three games), I’m not giving seven to any opponent, no matter how bad. Native Americans by three.

Baltimore (+2) at New England
There’s very little reason to believe New England will win this game. OK, yeah, the Patriots are at home. There’s that. And New England’s defense has been better than advertised, despite having suffered somekey injuries. That’s another thing. Plus, the best quarterback in football (when he’s 100 percent) appears to be shaking off the rust, which, you know, is pretty great for the Patriots. Thing is, though, the Ravens have been playing better football than that Pats thus far this season. They’re executing exceptionally well in every area except pass defense (and even then, they’re no worse than middle of the pack). They score on the ground. They score through the air. They hold onto the ball. And they stop the run better than any other team in the league. Normally, you’d expect the Patriots to find a way to exploit the Ravens’ one weakness. But that’s a tough thing to do when neither your QB nor your receiving corps is fully healthy. So, ultimately, you have to like the Ravens in this game. But it remains the case that it’s always safer to pick with New England (especially at home) than against them. So I’m taking the Patriots. To win by a point. At the last second.

Oakland (+9) at Houston
I still have no idea what to make of the Texans this season. Fortunately, I know exactly what to make of the Raiders. Houston by a margin that will be more than three but less than nine.

Cincinnati (-5.5) at Cleveland
The Browns are gonna start Derek Anderson. OK, sure. That should solve pretty much all of their problems. I’m taking the Bengals and giving the points.

Buffalo (-2) at Miami
Yeah, you know what? I don’t care who starts under center for Miami. Don’t care if much of the Dolphins offense is based on a single gimmick, either. The Bills are too injured and in too much trouble to win a division game on the road. So they won’t. Miami by a field goal.

NY Jets (+7) at New Orleans
No one’s gonna think any less of the Jets if they get torched by the Saints. That’s good news for the Jets. New Orleans by 10.

Dallas (-3) at Denver
OK so let me make sure I understand how this works. Mr. Stupid Interception heads out on a short week to face a defense that has picked off five balls in three games (and that gives up a league-best five points a game), at a time when the running game that has sustained his team is has been seriously hobbled, and somehow his squad is favored to beat the 3-0 home squad. Is that right? Does that sound right? Because it doesn’t to me. Denver by four.

St. Louis (+9.5) at San Francisco
The exciting news for the 49ers is that they’re in first place in their division. The sobering news is that their division is still the NFC West. The long-term upside to that is that the Niners are probably headed for the playoffs (the first round of the playoffs, that is). The short-term upside is that they get games like this one that they can pretty much record as a win going into the weekend. I’m taking San Francisco and giving the points.

San Diego (+6.5) at Pittsburgh
Injuries have rendered both of these teams not as good as they ought to be, and significantly less good than their fans’ believe them to be. But, at least in the short term, the Steelers are in less trouble than the Chargers. Pittsburgh is playing better defense than San Diego. They’re stopping the run well. If the Steelers can manage to hold on to the ball on offense (something they haven’t been doing this season), they should be able to handle the recovering, but still fairly banged-up Chargers. Pittsburgh straight up; San Diego with the points.

Green Bay (+3.5) at Minnesota
Man, you know, nothing against the Vikings, who have been playing great football and have been fun to watch), but I would love, love, love to see the Packers win this game. And if they had any hope of slowing down Adrian Peterson, they might have been able to pull it off. Green Bay’s defense is tied with the New Orleans D for the league lead in interceptions (at seven each). And no one knows better than the Packers just how prone to picks the Vikings’ starting quarterback can be. But even Brett Favre can’t throw the ball away if he isn’t throwing the ball. And he hasn’t been throwing the ball much thanks to the fact his team features the best running back in the league. That formula has worked well for the Vikes so far this season. And with a Green Bay run D that’s been less than stellar so far coming into their stadium, Minnesota can fairly safely count on more of the same this weekend. I’ll take the Vikings and give the points.

Too many damned road teams giving points. That’s what I see when I look over this week. And then I look at the individual games and, for the most part, it seems like the road teams should be giving points. That’s a recipe for disaster. A few teams that go in looking like they can’t lose are gonna come out of this week looking like they aren’t what we thought they were. Which ones? I have no idea. (Well, OK, I have a few ideas, but they’re almost certainly the wrong ideas.) Here’s what not to expect.

Kansas City (+8) at Philadelphia
If you wanna be excited about Michael Vick, that’s fine. I mean, pretty much everyone is at least interested to see how the Eagles will use Vick and to get at least a hint of what he’s capable of. Ultimately, though, Vick is a side show. He’s not gonna single-handedly revive the seriously banged up Philadelphia offense. And at least for this week he shouldn’t need to. The Eagles D should be able to give the Chiefs’ offense just about everything it can handle. I like the Chiefs to keep it ever so slightly closer than eight, but I can’t see them actually pulling off an upset straight up.

Green Bay (-6.5) at St. Louis
So you know that thing about heavy road favorites making me nervous? Not so much in this game. The rebuilding Rams won’t stand in the way of the Packers, who have already fallen a win behind the Vikings in their division and can’t afford to give away wins to less talented teams no matter where they’re played. Green Bay by nine.

San Francisco (+6.5) at Minnesota
Yeah, I’ll admit my exposure to the Niners thus far this season has been by way of highlights shows, so maybe I’m missing something. But I don’t get how there’s this idea that San Francisco is gonna be able to upset Minnesota on the road. I mean, it’s not even like the Vikes are just about one outstanding player (nor are they about one outstanding player and one over-age QB). Last I checked, they also had a hell of a defense. And that’s not gonna make it an easy afternoon for Frank Gore. I’m taking the Vikings and giving the points.

Cleveland (+13) at Baltimore
I wouldn’t watch this game if I were the parent of one of the Browns’ starters (for a couple of reasons). Baltimore wins handily, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Browns (assuming the can stick to football and not end up brawling with each other on the sidelines) make it at least a push with the points with a meaningless touchdown late in the game.

NY Giants (-6.5) at Tampa Bay
The Giants keep getting more and more banged up. Eventually, that’s bound to present a problem. But not until they play an actual professional football team. That ain’t this week. I’ll take the Bucs with the points, but only because I think the Giants are gonna keep it on the ground and make this a very low-scoring affair. The outcome, a New Jersey win, is never in doubt.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Houston
I don’t know what to make of either of these teams. And, frankly, I don’t trust either of them. I’ll take the home squad and give the points, but I’m not gonna pretend to feel confident about that pick.

Tennessee (+3) at NY Jets
I’m not sure how you transition a team from winning a week two “super bowl” to preparing to face a tough but winless non-division squad. But I’ve got a pretty good feeling about how a team that’s way better than its 0-2 record and that can’t afford to get to 0-3 gets revved up for the same game. The Titans win it straight up.

Atlanta (+4) at New England
There’s a sense out there that the Patriots are in trouble. I’m not buying it. In fact, I won’t even believe the Patriots are in trouble if they lose this game. (Though if they lose because they’re out of healthy receivers, that’s a problem; how much of a problem depends on how bad the injuries are.) But the Patriots aren’t going to lose this game. Not for mystique or coaching or quarterback play. But because New England is playing better defensive football than most experts realize and also, and mostly, because Atlanta has no ability to stop the run. New England by a touchdown.

Washington (-6) at Detroit
This is it, right? Detroit’s big week. The game where they finally get off the schneid after 19 straight losses. That’s the romantic pick of the week, anyhow. Doesn’t change the fact that it’s not gonna happen, but you know, it’s a nice little thought. Portis or no Portis, Washington wins this one. Let’s say by four points.

Chicago (-1.5) at Seattle
So, I don’t know if you’ve heard — and if you haven’t be prepared because this may very well send a chill down your spine (or up your spine depending on which direction chills move in your personal lexicon) — but T.J. Houshmandzadeh says he’s gonna make the Bears pay for not signing him as a free agent during the off season. Best yet, apparently he’s gonna do it with Seneca Wallace throwing him the ball. So, yeah, that should teach Chicago to “ain’t holler” at T.J. Bears by three.

New Orleans (-6) at Buffalo
Here we are again. Yes, a road team favored by six officially should scare me to death. But it’s hard to imagine that Buffalo’s D can hold the Saints to less than 34 or that Buffalo’s offense can score more than 23. So I’m giving the points. Because what else am I supposed to do?

Miami (+6) at San Diego
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Miami pull off an upset here. I’m not picking it that way, because the Dolphins are traveling across the country and coming off a Monday night game, but it could happen. San Diego is contending with some significant injuries and hasn’t exactly been lighting it up so far this season. So I’m definitely not willing to give six. But three, probably. And certainly one.

Pittsburgh (-4) at Cincinnati
This is one of the week’s toughest games to pick. I think Cincinnati is going to be able to pull of the upset at home. But I’m not sure why. I know the Steelers struggled last week, but I’m kinda inclined to believe that only makes them all the more dangerous here. Likewise, while the Bengals played well in Green Bay, but I really need to see a bit more before I jump on a bandwagon. Still, this is a division matchup. The Bengals are at home. And I have picked more road favorites than I’m comfortable with. (Plus, look, I’m not gonna feel comfortable no matter how I pick.) So I’ll go with the Bengals to win, and at least half expect to be wrong.

Denver (-1.5) at Oakland
The Broncos are an uneven team. The Raiders are just plain bad. Denver by four.

Indianapolis (+2.5) at Arizona
The Colts are without a doubt the better team in this matchup. But they’re on the road for the second consecutive week. And they’re coming off what had to be an exhausting Monday nighter (for the defense anyhow) in Miami. So I’m taking the Cardinals straight up. But I’ll look for the Colts to make it a one-point game.

Carolina (+9) at Dallas
The defenses could end up doing the bulk of the scoring in this game. A pick six one way here. A pick six the other way there. And before you know it, you’ve got the Cowboys D beating the Panthers D, by, oh, hell, let’s say six. That’s my pick.

It’s still way too early in the season for anyone to have any real idea of how things are shaping up in the NFL. But they insist on playing the games, so I insist on making my picks. Seems fair to me. Here, then, are a bunch of ill-informed predictions that no wise person would reasonably expect to have any relation to what might actually occur in week two.

Houston (+6.5) at Tennessee
Can an NFL team’s season end in week two? Well, not technically speaking, it can’t (obviously). But kinda, yeah. If the Texans lose by more than three scores yet again, that’s it. Finito. And that’s where this is headed. The Titans, at home and playing on 10 days rest, win by 17.

Minnesota (-9.5) at Detroit
God damn, but Adrian Peterson just keeps getting more and more impressive doesn’t he? I’ll take the Vikings and give the points.

Carolina (+6) at Atlanta
No, I don’t think Jake Delhomme is likely to turn in a third-straight miserable performance. Nor do I think Carolina will roll over for Atlanta the way Miami did. So, you know, I’m thinking the Falcons only win this one by three.

New Orleans (pick ’em) at Philadelphia
If Donovan McNabb were healthy, I’d have picked the Eagles regardless of how scary the Saints offense appears to be. Because I think Philadelphia’s D is good enough to slow New Orleans down. But McNabb isn’t healthy, and there’s only so long any defense can be on the field before it start to wear down. So I’m taking the Saints and wondering how many points I’d be willing to give if I had to.

Arizona (+3) at Jacksonville
So wait, wait, wait. I’m not remembering this wrong, am I? The Cardinals were in the Super Bowl like seven months ago, yes? And now, I’m hard pressed to come up with a reason to pick them to beat a team that’s in full-on rebuilding mode? Weird. This league is just plain weird sometimes. Because I have no faith in either team, I’ll take the home team to win and the visitors to cover. How’s that for fence sitting?

Oakland (+3) at Kansas City
The Chiefs still have a long road ahead of them. But the Raiders are going nowhere. Kansas City by a touchdown.

Cincinnati (+9) at Green Bay
It’s funny, you know, I had precious little respect for the Bengals going into last weekend and yet I still managed to lose some. Packers by 13.

New England (-3.5) at NY Jets
Forget the idiotic talk. It doesn’t matter. What matters most is whether the Patriots defense, playing without Jerod Mayo, can perform the way a Bill Belichick D typically performs against a rookie quarterback. That really is the long and short of it. Because, look, assertions to the contrary notwithstanding, the Patriots offense had a very good opening week outing. They could have put more points up (or the same points, but somewhat earlier), but that about sums up their need to improve on O. And while the Jets got out to a much better start than most expected, it bears noting that they did it against a perpetual cellar-dweller team. I expect the Pats offense to put up between 24 and 34 points. And as long as New England’s defense has something approaching its normal level of success flustering inexperienced QBs, even the lower end of that range should be enough. It seems to me that while Mayo is undoubtedly a loss, and while the Pats D we saw Monday night clearly has some maturing to do (no surprise there), neither of those things should stop Belichick from getting into Mark Sanchez’s head. I’m gonna take the Pats and give the points.

St. Louis (+9.5) at Washington
I don’t want to think about Washington. And I refuse to think about St. Louis. So take this from where it comes and all, but I’m taking the home team straight up, but the visitors with the points.

Tampa Bay (+5) at Buffalo
If the Bills can come within one boneheaded play of upsetting the Patriots in Foxborough, you have to imagine they’ll have little trouble dismantling the Buccaneers at home. Even on a short week. Buffalo by six.

Seattle (+1.5) at San Francisco
Let’s see, which of these 1-0 teams do I not believe in more? Honestly, I won’t know until Sunday evening. Until then, I’m just picking the home team. And giving the point and a half. Whatever.

Baltimore (+3) at San Diego
So now the Chargers get to face the team that has both a defense and and offense. That should hurt. Ravens, 14-13.

Cleveland (+3) at Denver
I might be nuts here, but I kinda feel like if it were up to me, no matter how much of a jackass he may be, as long as I had Brandon Marshall on my team, I’d be inclined to try to use him. Just a thought. Or, you know, I guess hoping the ball bounces into your other receivers’ hands at exactly the right moment week after week is a strategy, too. Of course, it’s not like any of it matters much this week. Because even without Marshall, you have to think Denver would win and probably cover. Let’s say Broncos by four.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Chicago
You know, if I were Jay Cutler, I’m not sure Pittsburgh’s defense is the unit I’d want to have to try to turn things around against. You get what you get. I don’t expect Cutler to throw four picks again, but I do expect him to have another rough night. Steelers, 20-13.

NY Giants (+2.5) at Dallas
There are plenty of reasons to like the Cowboys here, none of which has anything to do with the team’s new stadium. They start with a lopsided recent history and range up to the fact the Giants come in seriously banged up and even thinner at wide receiver than they were going into the season (that’s not good). And still, somehow, I’m expecting to see the Giants fun the ball down the Cowboys’ throats, and to slip out of Dallas with a very narrow victory as a result. I’m taking New Jersey straight up, Dallas with the points.

Indianapolis (-3) at Miami
Can last season’s 11-5 AFC East Champions really start 0-2? Yes, they really, really can. Colts win straight up. It’s a push with the points.

Here we go. Fifteen more picks you can count on to be anywhere from somewhat off the mark to just dead wrong. You heard it here first.

Jacksonville (+7) at Indianapolis
There may be more questions surrounding the Colts heading into this season than there have been in several years (notably the one about whether the team can continue to achieve at a high level in the post Dungy era), but none of them is “Can they beat the Jags at home?” Jacksonville is fielding a very young team this season. And while I suspect there may be many things for Jaguars fans to feel optimistic about by the time the season wraps up, there’s almost no cause for optimism as they head to face a tough, experienced, elite division foe in an opening weekend matchup. Colts by 13.

Detroit (+13) at New Orleans
Hey, it might be fun to watch the Saints offense do its thing. And it could be interesting to see what the New Orleans D can do with its starting ends on the field, which it appears won’t be the case a week from now. (Though it’s hard to imagine we’ll get much of a read on whether even an intact Saints D is for real based on how it performs against the Lions, led by a rookie quarterback.) Other than that, unless you’re a fan of one of the teams, there’s not a whole lot of reason to care about this game, let alone plan to watch it. Me, I’ll wait for the highlights. I’m taking the Saints and giving the points.

Philadelphia (+1) at Carolina
Let’s assume that the oddsmakers are correct and this is a relatively even matchup. If that’s the case (and I’m not sure it is, even on the Panthers’ home field), then the difference should come from line play. That’s not insight; it’s axiom. Well, I’m not entirely sure what to expect when Philadelphia’s on offense, because I’ve yet to see how the Eagles O line and the Carolina D line hold up in the face of some key injuries. I’m gonna call it a wash because I don’t know what else to do. When the ball’s moving the other way, I’m expecting the Eagles D line to outperform the Panthers O line. So that’s Philly winning the war in the trenches. And that’s Philly winning the game. Let’s say by three.

Dallas (-6) at Tampa Bay
If the Bucs can’t even pretend to care about fielding a competitive team, how can anyone even pretend to think they have a chance against a solid opponent? Cowboys by at least a touchdown.

NY Jets (+5) at Houston
There are folks out there who think the Texans are going to be a very good team this season. Of course, it seems like there are folks out there who think that every season. In the past, I’ve sometimes been one of them. Now, I’m done until I see something. And edging out a Jets team that’s in no way ready for the regular season to start isn’t what I have in mind. Texans by a field goal.

Kansas City (+13) at Baltimore
Not even if Matt Cassel were 100 percent, which he isn’t. I’ll take the Chiefs with the points, but only because you can only pick so many double-digit favorites in a given week. The Ravens own this game straight up.

Denver (+4) at Cincinnati
I’m not sold on the whole Cincinnati as a sleeper thing that’s going around. I mean, look, the weapons are there, but the weapons are always there with this team. It’s just a matter of how they get used. By the end of the season, I suspect it’ll be the Broncos who have emerged as the real sleeper. But here, on opening weekend, with Kyle Orton still nursing a banged up finger on his throwing hand, I’ve gotta take the Bengals. And, you know what, I’ll even give the points.

Minnesota (-4) at Cleveland
This is the lock of the week. I don’t care where this game’s being played, with Adrian Peterson and the Vikings’ D to reckon with, the Browns will be lucky to keep it within 14, let alone four.

Miami (+4) at Atlanta
I don’t expect either of these teams to be as good this season as it was last. But I do expect Atlanta to get off to a somewhat strong start. That will include an opening week win at home, though I don’t think it’ll be by quite four points.

Washington (+6.5) at NY Giants
I’m sorely tempted to take Washington here. Not because I think the Native Americans are the better team. Far from it. It’s just that I’ve grown accustomed to seeing Washington do well early and fall apart late. Plus, the Giants still haven’t developed consistent, reliable targets for Eli Manning. I’m sure they will soon enough, but I’d really feel better about their chances in a fierce division rivalry game if they’d done it already. Still, I’m taking New York, though I think the Giants will win it by more like four than six and a half.

San Francisco (+6.5) at Arizona
Oh, look, it’s an NFC West game. Yup. Sure is. Exciting stuff, huh? Arizona by seven.

St. Louis (-8.5) at Seattle
Oh, look, it’s another NFC West game. What a way to usher in a football season. Seattle by some margin that may or may not exceed eight and a half. (What? Oh. Really? I have to? OK, whatever. Seattle by nine.)

Chicago (+4.5) at Green Bay
I’m psyched that this game is happening on Sunday night. Because after Philadelphia-Carolina, this is by far the day’s most exciting matchup. I’m excited to see what the Bears can accomplish with Jay Cutler under center. And I’m very interested to see to what degree Aaron Rodgers can expose a highly suspect Bears pass D. I’ll take the Pack, give the points, and bet the over.

Buffalo (+10.5) at New England
There are reasons for Patriots fans to worry about the team’s very young defense slipping up in costly ways once or twice during the season. But not on an opening Monday night in Foxborough against a Buffalo squad with few options on offense and a group of offensive linemen whom you’d have to tip if they hailed you a cab. And certainly not with Tom Brady and Randy Moss doing their reunion thing on the other side of the ball. Pats by 20.

San Diego (-9.5) at Oakland
The Chargers have won the last 11 meetings between these two teams. Is there any reason to believe they won’t have made it a bakers dozen before this season is out? San Diego by a touchdown.

I’m not gonna get all of my week one picks wrapped up before kickoff tonight. So here’s what probably won’t happen between the Titans and the Steelers. I’ll get back to you tomorrow with my hopelessly off-the-mark assessment of the other 15 games.

Tennessee (+6) at Pittsburgh
If it weren’t for a belief that it’s never wise to bet on a week one game (OK, it’s never wise to gamble at all, but you know what I mean), I’d be sorely tempted to take the points here. I mean, look, these are both very good football teams. But my sense is that the Steelers aren’t quite as good as they’re perceived to be while the Titans are coming into the season at least a little bit underrated. I’m not taking Tennessee straight up, mind you. Maybe in Nashville, but not in Pittsburgh. I’m just saying I think it’s gonna by a tough fight and a close finish. I expect see a low-scoring, highly competitive affair. And I expect the Titans to have a chance to win if late. But they won’t. Steelers 17-13.

Here we go with the most valueless predictions I’ll make all season (and, baby, is that saying something). You know, since it’s not quite frustrating enough for me to get things wrong on a week-by-week basis, I like to start every season by making stupid predictions about how the whole damned NFL season will shake out. Smart, huh?

Here’s what I can predict with near certainty: At least one team that I think is gonna suck is gonna win its division. And at least one team that I expect to see great things from is gonna tank in a major way. (The good news for me is that the same can be said of the season predictions being put out there by actual experts. The bad news for me is that they get paid for their predictions.)

So I go ahead and do it. Every year. And you know what? It’s a safe bet Brett Favre calls it quits before I do. And, hell, he was good once. It was a long time ago, so maybe you don’t remember. But he really was.

Regular Season Records
As per usual, even I’m not stupid enough to think it’s possible to predict the records NFL teams will finish with. But if I’m predicting something, I’ve gotta predict something. So what you get from me is a range of the total wins I think each team is likely to achieve. That, you know, gives me a better chance at being right. Or at least it does in theory. In reality, it usually just makes me even more embarrassingly wrong. It’s a nice little trick. Check it out.

AFC East

New England Patriots, 12-15
The equation starts with the assumption that you have to be at least one win better with Tom Brady under center than you were with Matt Cassel. It moves on to take in the appearance that this team is more balanced than the 2007 squad that went 16-0. And it ends with the belief that you can never expect any team to win all 16 games in a regular season — certainly not twice.

Miami Dolphins, 7-11
Seven if last season was about smoke and mirrors (and the surprise rollout of the wildcat in the NFL). Eleven if the 2008 Dolphins were for real. Somewhere in between if everything else works out, but Chad Pennington takes half a step in the wrong direction.

New York Jets, 6-9
Adjust up by one if the Jets manage to find a receiver. Maybe two if it’s Brandon Marshall.

Buffalo Bills, 6-8
Sorry, coach, but TO or no TO, this is the end of the line.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-14
Same team, different division. The big question is, how different?

Baltimore Ravens, 9-13
It’s all about Joe Flacco. If he improves over a standout rookie campaign, the Ravens win the division. He hits a sophomore slump, the team misses the playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals, 7-9
The Bengals appear to be one of the most improved teams in the league. But only if Carson Palmer’s ankle heals up and if the rest of him stays healthy. I’m not sure you can count on either of those things in a punishing division like the AFC North.

Cleveland Browns, 2-5
Who’s the starting quarterback? Who cares?

AFC South

Tennessee Titans, 11-13
There’s no reason not to expect the Titans to pick up where they left off. Whether the division falls into their hands or they end up in a season-long battle depends more on what happens in Indianapolis than anything else.

Indianapolis Colts, 10-12
The off-season changes that have taken place in Indy aren’t minor by any standard. Still, the team should have plenty of firepower to make a run for the division title (and the conference two seed). How that firepower is used will make the difference.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 5-8
That’s one win for every committed Jaguars fan.

Houston Texans, 4-7
And the beat goes on.

AFC West

San Diego Chargers, 7-10
Is LaDainian Tomlinson poised for a huge year or a huge breakdown? Can a team succeed in year three under Norv Turner? Does it even matter in a division that can probably be won at 9-7?

Denver Broncos, 7-10
I like Kyle Orton. I don’t like him as much as I like Jay Cutler (talentwise, I mean), though there’s no question his attitude is a step up. And I’d like him a lot more if I were sure he was going to have Brandon Marshall stretching the field for him all season. Still, Denver’s got as good a chances as San Diego of take the AFC West — and of bowing to a wild card team (quite possibly a wild card team that comes in with a better record than them) in the first week of the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs, 5-8
The Chiefs may well contend for a division title in 2010. This season, 8-8 would be an absolute triumph.

Oakland Raiders, 2-5
Can someone help me understand how you make a win-now deal for Richard Seymour when you have no more hope of winning now with him than you had without?

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles, 9-13
No team in the NFC East is winning more than 13 games. The Eagles could hit the limit if Brian Westbrook is healthy. If he isn’t, they’re still a formidable team, but they’re in for a tough fight in a brutal division.

New York Giants, 9-13
If they develop targets for Eli Manning, the Giants stand as good a chance as any team of winning this division (and quite possibly the conference title). If they don’t, well, there’s only so much Brandon Jacobs and Kevin Boss can do.

Dallas Cowboys, 8-10
Comings and goings elsewhere aside, the Cowboys (like most teams) will live or die based on quarterback play, and I’m less sure than ever that Tony Romo is anything more than a slightly better than average NFL QB.

Washington Redskins, 7-9
The Redskins may potentially be a force in the uncapped 2010 season — if anyone worth throwing tons of cash at actually makes it to free agency. This season, they’re just another unbalanced Washington squad.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers, 10-12
The Packers are the only team in their division without a new starting quarterback this season. They’re also the only team in the division that didn’t need one. While the rest of the North adjusts, it’s Green Bay’s division to lose.

Minnesota Vikings, 8-10
Brett Favre isn’t going to win games for the Vikings. He may manage to lose a couple– but that might still be a couple fewer than Tarvaris Jackson would have lost. This is Adrian Peterson’s team, and if they manage to steal the division or snag a wild card spot, it’ll be Peterson’s legs (and a badass D) that get them there.

Chicago Bears, 6-9
By the time this season’s over, Jay Cutler’s gonna seriously regret whining his way out of Denver, and the Bears are gonna seriously regret facilitating his exit.

Detroit Lions, 3-5
The Lions may not be the NFL’s most mismanaged team anymore (send your paper bags to Oakland, please), but they are still the Lions.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints, 10-13
The Saints offense should put the team in position to win at least 12 games all by itself. Whether the D helps, hinders or holds its own will decide where the team goes from there.

Carolina Panthers, 8-12
I have no real idea what to make of the Panthers, because I have no real idea what to make of Jake Delhomme.

Atlanta Falcons, 8-12
Another team that could win the division or crash and burn. It should be the former. The weapons are all there. But I’ve got this weird feeling it’s not gonna work out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3-5
The NFC South may not be the best division in football, but it’s gonna be highly competitive, which means its one mess of a team is in big trouble.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals, 9-12
The Cardinals have the weapons to run away with this lackluster division. The only question is, do they have the attitude? If they do, it’s a slam dunk. If they don’t, they probably still take the title by default.

Seattle Seahawks, 6-9
Another Seahawks team that it’s hard to imagine anyone outside of Seattle will even notice.

San Francisco 49ers, 5-7
The Niners have about as much chance of posting a winning season as they do of signing Michael Crabtree before their season opener.

St. Louis Rams, 3-6
Steve Spagnuolo will turn this team around in a big way. Eventually.

Playoffs

And now, to be completely ridiculous, a look at how the playoffs won’t turn out. Let’s start with our seedings:

AFC
1. New England
2. Tennessee
3. Baltimore
4. Denver
5. Pittsburgh
6. Indianapolis

NFC
1. Philadelphia
2. New Orleans
3. Green Bay
4. Arizona
5. NY Giants
6. Minnesota

Wild Card Playoffs

AFC
Baltimore defeats Indianapolis
Pittsburgh defeats Denver

NFC
Green Bay defeats Minnesota
NY Giants defeat Arizona

Divisional Playoffs

AFC
Baltimore defeats Tennessee
New England defeats Pittsburgh

NFC
Green Bay defeats New Orleans
Philadelphia defeats NY Giants

Conference Championships

AFC
New England defeats Baltimore

NFC
Philadelphia defeats Green Bay

Super Bowl XLIV
New England defeats Philadelphia, 37-21

That’s what I’ve got. So, you know, let’s get to all the stuff I predicted would happen not happening. That’s the fun part, anyhow.