This Football Blog

Well, I called Thursday night’s game right. So I’ve got that going for me. Here’s what not to expect from the rest of the weekend.

Dallas (+7) at New Orleans
The Saints continue their march toward a perfect regular season (not saying they’ll get there, just that they’ll be taking another step in that direction here) while Wade Phillips continues his march toward unemployment. New Orleans, still playing for the one seed, wins by 10.

Cleveland (+1.5) at Kansas City
Yeah, I know the Browns are coming off a huge win (I watched the game; they were very impressive) and the Chiefs are coming off an embarrassing loss, but I just can’t take the Browns, with their league-worst minus-12 giveaway/takeaway differential, to win a game on the road. I can’t and I won’t. Kansas City by four.

Chicago (+10.5) at Baltimore
With this game, a visit to the disintegrating Steelers and a home finale against the Raiders ahead of them, the Ravens likely have the inside lane in the race for the AFC six seed. I don’t expect to see them blow it against a Bears squad that won’t have much to get excited about until at least April 22.

Arizona (-11.5) at Detroit
Often a second straight road game, particularly when it’s played on a short week, can be a setup for a loss. But I just don’t see Arizona getting surprised again. Cardinals by nine.

New England (-7) at Buffalo
Moss, Moss, Moss. Enough already. You know what? I don’t think Randy Moss or the other 81 is gonna be much of a factor in this game. What is? A swelling Patriots rushing offense vs. a Buffalo run D that ranks last in the league, giving up 5 yards per carry and 170 per game. New England by 13.

Atlanta (+6) at NY Jets
This could be an interesting game. Both teams are getting healthier and both are playing for their playoff lives (though the Falcons aren’t in great shape if they win, the fact that they’re plain old done if they lose has to mean something). I think it’s a much closer game than the spread indicates. The Jets may have a distinct edge on defense, but the Falcons main vulnerability on that side of the ball in the passing game. And I’m not convinced the Jets can capitalize on that particular deficiency, regardless of who’s taking the snaps. If taking the Jets straight up, because they do arguably have more on the line and the game is happening in New Jersey. But I’m not giving six. More like one. Three tops.

Miami (+3) at Tennessee
With San Diego on the way in week sixteen, things aren’t looking too good for the Titans playoffs-wise. I’m not sure they’re ready to accept that, though. And it’s clear that they still feel like they’ve got something to prove. I know the Dolphins want this game like crazy. I know they need it, with their wild card competitors the Jets and Ravens likely winning this weekend (the Broncos, too, of course; but I’m assuming Denver’s all but locked up a playoff spot) and the Patriots just a game ahead of them in the division. I just don’t think they’re gonna get it. Titans by a point.

San Francisco (+9) at Philadelphia
Not only are the Eagles heating up in December as usual, but they demonstrated Sunday night that they’ve figured out how to use Michael Vick in a way that’s tough to defend. I think they’re the most dangerous team in the NFC and I won’t be at all surprised if they push on through to that thing in Miami February 7. The Niners, who are traveling across three time zones to play on short rest, should be a breeze. Eagles by 14.

Houston (-10.5) at St. Louis
Well, Jimmy, the Rams do have neat looking helmets. And a better-than-average shot of turning things around within three years. So there’s that. Houston by 10.

Oakland (+14) at Denver
If the Broncos take care of business here and in their week seventeen home game against the Chiefs, they won’t have to worry much about what happens next weekend in Philadelphia (unless the Chargers manage to lose to Cincinnati, in which case the division, at least on paper, would be back in play). That should provide plenty of motivation for putting a beatdown on the Raiders. The fact that the Raiders are down to plan C at quarterback won’t hurt, either. Denver wins and covers.

Cincinnati (+6.5) at San Diego
Just as I think the Eagles are the most dangerous team in the NFC, I think the Chargers are the most dangerous team in the AFC. That’s bad news for the Bengals, who are facing a tough matchup on the road for the second consecutive week. This should be the game in which the Chargers lock up the two seed. San Diego by seven.

Tampa Bay (+7) at Seattle
I refuse to comment on this game. Seriously. I’ll take Seattle to win and figure on a push with the points. Because I just don’t care.

Green Bay (+2) at Pittsburgh
Can someone explain to me how the Steelers, who have lost six straight, three of the last four of which were to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns are giving points to the 9-4 Packers. And, no, I don’t care where the game’s being played. Green Bay by four.

Minnesota (-9) at Carolina
The Vikings wrap up the NFC North title and take a big step toward locking up the conference two seed. I’m taking Minnesota and giving the points.

NY Giants (-3) at Washington
The Giants are hanging on to their playoff hopes by the merest thread. It snaps here. The Redskins become the second straight home underdog to pull off an upset against a better divisional opponent.

I’m not gonna finish up this week’s picks before game time tonight. So here’s my first bad pick of the week to get things started.

Indianapolis (-3) at Jacksonville
There are good and obvious reasons to pick Jacksonville in this game. They’re the home team in a divisional matchup. The Jags are trying to play their way into the post-season while the Colts have nothing left to play for (except for 16-0, which everyone learned to years ago isn’t worth the effort). The Colts offense likely will be led by a rookie QB through at least the fourth quarter. And still, I somehow can’t bring myself to make that pick. Indy by three.

I’m taking some upsets this week. Most are hardly upsets at all. But at least one is the real deal. So, you know, the favorites should win all of those games. (And the underdogs will take a few others.) All of which is to say here’s what not to expect.

Pittsburgh (-10) at Cleveland
Yeah, I know the Steelers have lost four straight. And, yeah, I know two of those losses have been to the Chiefs and the (holy crap!) Raiders, but they can’t lose to the Browns. Right? I mean, that would just be way too much. Right? I’m gonna think that until I have a reason not to. Pittsburgh by nine.

New Orleans (-10) at Atlanta
If you go with the which team needs it more philosophy of picking football games, you’ve gotta like the Falcons here. Because, look, up until a week ago, the Saints, unlike the Colts, actually had a reason to shoot for 16-0; the Vikings were just a short step behind them in the contest for the NFC one seed. Now, though, New Orleans has home field all but locked up. They can afford to drop one. Atlanta, meanwhile, is about a loss away from having no shot at the post season. So, yeah, if you pick ’em like that, you lean toward the Falcons. Or you might, if only the Falcons had anything remotely resembling a healthy offense, which they don’t.The Saints engage the cruise control early in the second half and still manage to cover and then some.

Carolina (+13.5) at New England
This is it. This is either the game where the Patriots start a four-game winning streak that has the “experts” who have written them off scratching their heads as January rolls around or the game where it becomes clear that unsettled issues (which will get settled quick in the off-season, especially if the looming uncapped year renders such typical concerns as cap hit immaterial), on-field shortcomings, and off-field … well, you know, lives are conspiring to make 2009 the team’s most purely frustrating season since 2002. (No, I’m not counting the 2008 season, which ended after less than a quarter.) The Patriots don’t need a win here. They need a big, big win. A “those mean old Patriots are running up the score” win. A win in which Brady is still throwing deep to Moss two thirds of the way through he fourth quarter even though the team is ahead by 23. I expect them to get just that. Patriots 45-17.

Buffalo (pick ’em) at Kansas City
This could easily be the shortest game of the season. Neither defense has any ability whatsoever to stop the run, which should keep the ball on the ground and the game clock running. And, given the fact that neither the teams nor their fans have any reason to want to prolong the 2009 season, that might not be a terrible thing. The Bills, who are slightly less awful on both sides of the ball, should come out ahead, maybe by a point.

NY Jets (-3) at Tampa Bay
Even with your franchise in a tailspin (yet again) and your “Sanchize” on the bench, there’s no losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Jets keep their post-season hopes alive for another week with a freebie, 19-13.

Miami (+3) at Jacksonville
The Dolphins managed to puff within a game in the division with their comeback victory over the Patriots a week ago. That means that if Miami can win out, all they’ll need to capture a second-straight AFC East title is one more misstep by New England. Unfortunately for Miami, winning out isn’t gonna be easy. They follow this game with a trip to Tennessee. And they finish the season with a visit from Pittsburgh. Neither of these teams has much to offer by way of pass defense. And since Jacksonville’s offense is in a somewhat better position than Miami to take advantage of that situation, I’m taking the Jags to win. But not by much. It’s a push with the points.

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Minnesota
I’ve gotta say, six and a half points seems rather excessive to me. Yeah, the Vikings are getting a lot of attention (and rightly so) this season. But, hell, they’re only a game better than the Bengals, and they’re a game better in the NFC, which is maybe even, maybe a game worse when you adjust for competitive imbalance. And here’s the big thing: The Bengals don’t just let you beat them on the ground. You absolutely have to earn your wins through the air with them. And they don’t exactly come easy there. That’s the kind of situation that has exposed Brett Favre in the past, and I’m not certain we won’t see more of that in this match (especially after Sunday night, because I promise you Cincinnati’s D is a good bit tougher than Arizona’s). Does that mean I’m anticipating a second-straight loss for the Vikings? Not at all. Minnesota’s at home. Minnesota’s not in a position to give away games (a loss would, at least on paper, put the two seed in jeopardy). And Minnesota, as you might have heard, has a pretty impressive defense itself. So, yeah, I’m taking the Vikings. But I’m not giving anything close to six and a half.

Detroit (+13) at Baltimore
The Ravens can still squeeze into the playoffs if they just win their own games and get a little bit of help from either Indianapolis or New England (Jacksonville’s opponents in weeks 15 and 16). That ain’t a terrible position to be in. Baltimore by 17.

Green Bay (-3) at Chicago
The Bears can’t run. The Bears can’t stop the run. And the Bears can’t hold on to the ball. The Packers can do all three. That adds up to a Green Bay win. By six.

Seattle (+6) at Houston
One of these teams is gonna see another frustrating season come to its all-but-official end this weekend. I’m gonna guess it’ll be the road team. Texans by a touchdown.

Denver (+7) at Indianapolis
You know what? I’m taking the Broncos. Here’s why: The Colts have, for all intents and purposes, locked up the AFC one seed. The Colts are going to drop a game at some point (though it’s arguably more likely to come in week 16 or 17 with most of their starters sitting out chunks of the second half). And the Broncos have developed a habit this season of beating good teams. Also, I have a weird hunch. Denver by a point.

Washington (-1) at Oakland
Ugh (ly). This would be easier if Oakland weren’t coming off a nice win. Then I’d just go ahead and pick the home team, even though the visiting squad is arguably a bit less awful. But that would mean picking the Raiders to win their second straight, which just seems obscenely unlikely. So, again, I say ugh. I’m holding my breath and taking Oakland.

St. Louis (+13) at Tennessee
The too little too late factor probably caught up with Tennessee last weekend. Tennessee still has a chance to be a factor in the post-season, but it will be as a spoiler – maybe by killing Miami’s hopes next weekend, maybe by denying San Diego the two seed in week 16, maybe both – rather than as a competitor. None of that has anything to do with this game, however. Here it’s the Titans by 17.

San Diego (+3) at Dallas
You know, on paper this is a great game. Each squad has a narrow lead in its division. Both need a win. And the edge shifts depending on which side of the ball you’re looking at. In reality, I’m not so sure. The Chargers are, true to form, heating up as the season comes to a close. The Cowboys appeared last weekend (also true to form) to be cooling down in December. If those trends hold true, and/or if Dallas doesn’t figure out how to protect the football, this isn’t gonna be much of a game at all. I’m looking for the Chargers to win it straight up.

Philadelphia (+1) at NY Giants
This is what Sunday night football should be all about. If I’m right about the Chargers beating Dallas, this game is for first place in the NFC East. That’s kinda shocking, considering how banged up both of these teams are right now. I’m tempted to take the Giants, since they’re at home and since they need it more. And for the most part the stats say it’s a coin toss, which invariably favors the home team. But the fact that the Eagles come in with a giveaways/takeaway differential of plus-12 while the Giants are at minus-1 gives me pause. And when I unpause, I settle on the Eagles.

Arizona (-3) at San Francisco
In which the Cardinals, playing in prime time for the second consecutive week, sew up the NFC West and get the experts talking about another run to the Super Bowl. Arizona by nine.

All-in-all this week presents some of the most lopsided contests of the season. In a typical year, I might think that pointed to an upset week. But this isn’t a typical year. The gap between the haves and have-nots is just way too wide. Of course, since I’m usually wrong about pretty much everything, that probably means … ah, forget it. Here’s what not to expect.

St. Louis (+9) at Chicago
You can probably add to the growing list of reasons it makes sense for Jimmy Clausen to come out a year early the fact that he stands a very good chance of going to the Rams, which beats the living crap out of heading into a draft knowing your headed for Oakland or Detroit. What does that have to do with this game? Little to nothing, which matches exactly what I can come up with to say about a matchup like this one. St. Louis covers, because the Bears aren’t beating anyone by 10 points right now, but Chicago wins it straight up.

New England (-5) at Miami
Look, I’d be lying if I said I don’t think there are a lot of reasons to believe the Dolphins can win this game. And almost none of them have to do with the uncharacteristically terrible performance the Patriots turned in Monday night in New Orleans. There’s the fact that the Patriots are playing their second consecutive road game, which is never an easy win in the NFL. That’s compounded by the Pats playing on six days rest, also a factor that consistently trips teams up. Add in that divisional matches are usually tough and the fact that the Dolphins have their backs against the wall (lose this and they’re done in the division and in need of a good bit of help if they’re gonna capture a wild card spot). All of that points to the possibility of an upset. What points more convincingly in the other direction, however, is that the Patriots simply don’t play badly in back-to-back games. That and the prospect of a Miami pass defense that allows nearly 13 points per completion facing an angry Tom Brady. Oh, also a giveaway/takeaway swing of 15 in New England’s favor (Pats are plus-12, Dolphins minus-3). I think the Dolphins will play hard and make it a game into the third quarter, but in the end the Patriots win and cover.

Philadelphia (-5.5) at Atlanta
Michael Vick returns to Atlanta and blah, blah, blah. It’s Philly’s defense that makes the difference here. Eagles by a field goal.

New Orleans (-9.5) at Washington
Would I be shocked if New Orleans were to run into a letdown game this week? Hell, no. The Saints are bound to drop one at some point. And the Native Americans are easy to look past and better (you know, on defense) than they’re record lets on. So, sure, it could happen. But I’m not picking it. Not today. Not ever. Saints by 13.

Tennessee (+6.5) at Indianapolis
Yes, the Colts eventually are gonna drop one, too. And, yes, the Titans, who come in hot, are as likely a candidate to be on the other side of that as any team in the league. But, no, I’m not picking that either. I’m just not. Indy by three.

Oakland (+13.5) at Pittsburgh
Thinking about the internal turmoil the Steelers are dealing with, I briefly started looking for reasons to justify picking the Raiders in this game. Seriously. I did. Which is more of an indication of what a complete pudding my brain is at the moment than anything else. Of course, reality does manage to push its way through here and there. And reality says that while there’s no giving most of two touchdowns with the 2009 Steelers, there’s also no picking the Raiders to win straight up. So Pittsburgh wins, Oakland covers. And that’s that.

Denver (-4.5) at Kansas City
With the Chargers a game out ahead of them for the division title and trips to Indianapolis and Philadelphia coming up, the Broncos need to win games like this one to stay in line for a post-season berth. Given that the Chiefs come in ranked 29th in the league on both offense and defense, one wouldn’t think that would be a terribly tough row to hoe. Denver by a touchdown.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Carolina
It’s hard to know whose future is looking less bright at the moment, Jake Delhomme‘s or the team that gave him a bit extension this past off-season and owes him $13 million regardless of whether he ever completes another pass. Not that any of it matters this week, given that Delhomme’s not playing and there’s hardly any chance that any team loses to Tampa Bay. Carolina by four.

Houston (pick ’em) at Jacksonville
I’ve got no insight to offer on this game. Really. There are plenty of reasons to believe that each team can win. And I could run through them. Or I could point out that whichever of these squads I pick to win is going to lose. Because that’s how it’s been all damned season long with both of them. In the end, I kinda think the Texans will pull this one out, which is why I’m taking the Jaguars. How’s that for reasoning.

Detroit (+13) at Cincinnati
After this, the Bengals go on a two-game road trip that starts in Minnesota and wraps up in San Diego. Flip that around and Cincy has a chance to come out of it 1-1. But you can’t, so that’s likely a pair of losses. That means the Bengals have to win here to preserve their lead over Baltimore and Pittsburgh and their chances to take the division with victories over Kansas City and the New Jersey Jets in weeks 16 and 17. They’ll get step one right. Bengals by 17.

San Diego (-12.5) at Cleveland
Who loses to the Browns? Chargers by 14.

Dallas (-1.5) at NY Giants
Not a lot of wiggle room here for the Giants. I mean, sure, you can lose this one and still pretend you have a shot at a wild card spot, but the reality is that the ship is foundering and unlikely to recover with yet another gaping hole in the hull. There’s reason for hope, I suppose, for Giants fans and Cowboys haters alike. I mean, virtually all of the stats favor New Jersey. But the momentum favors Dallas, as does the injury situation. And I can’t shake the feeling that the Giants’ season ends this weekend.

San Francisco (pick ’em) at Seattle
You know what’s gonna happen, don’t you? One of these teams is gonna win this game. Of course, since I can’t begin to care which, I’m just gonna take the one that appears to be going in the right direction (even though it actually isn’t, because it always appears to be going in the right direction but never really is): San Francisco. By four.

Minnesota (-3) at Arizona
Pair a Cardinals’ loss here with a Niners win in Seattle and you’ll have some San Francisco fans believing their team can win the NFC West. For exactly a week. Minnesota by 10.

Baltimore (+3) at Green Bay
Wow. An interesting matchup on Monday night for a second consecutive week. Who’d have imagined it? Of course, there’s part of me that figures there must be another blowout in the offing. But then there’s another part of me that realizes that both of these teams trade on defense. I’m going with Packers, both because they’re at home and because their plus-17 giveaway/takeaway differential is the best in the league. Seems like sound enough reasoning to me.

I’m not gonna get all of my picks wrapped up before game time, so here’s what I’ve got for tonight.

NY Jets (-3) vs. Buffalo at Rogers Centre, Toronto
If the Bills could beat the Dolphins, who are probably as good a team as the Jets, they ought to be able to do the same with the Jets, right? Yeah, I’d like to think so, too. But I don’t. Give me one or two more good performances from the new coach, new approach Bills and maybe I’ll think differently. For now, though, I’ve gotta go with what I’ve got, all of which favors New Jersey. Still, since I’m gonna be rooting for the Bills anyway, I might as well split the difference and take them to cover. Jets by a point.

Here’s what I’m thankful for as a football fan this year (with a side of what not to expect in week twelve).

Green Bay (-8) at Detroit
I’m thankful that I don’t have to play a division rival on a short week with a backup quarterback. Packers by 10.

Oakland (+13.5) at Dallas
I’m thankful for the fact that I don’t have to put real money on either of these teams. For fun, let’s say Dallas wins, Oakland covers.

NY Giants (-6) at Denver
I’m thankful that the one potentially entertaining game on the Thanksgiving schedule is taking place in prime time. I like Denver to win it straight up, partly because I figure the Broncos’ skid can’t go on forever and partly because I have trouble believing a banged-up and inconsistent team can succeed after traveling most of the way across the country to play in Denver’s thin atmosphere on short rest.

Tampa Bay (+11.5) at Atlanta
I’m thankful that I don’t root for a team that’s $30 million under the salary cap and thinks its biggest problem is that its been running the wrong defense for 11 weeks. Falcons by 17.

Miami (-3) at Buffalo
I’m thankful that I’m not part of a cash-strapped organization in hopelessly small market wasting my time on pie in the sky head coach searches. Dolphins by a field goal.

Washington (+10) at Philadelphia
I’m thankful for not having to so much as pretend to be interested in figuring out whom Dan Snyder will waste his millions on next. Eagles win, Native Americans cover.

Seattle (-2.5) at St. Louis
I’m thankful that the NFC West is part of the NFC. And, you know, west. I’m also thankful that I’m not pinning any kind of hopes on Kyle Boller. Seahawks by four.

Carolina (+3) at NY Jets
I’m thankful for teams that know the Super Bowl is played in February, not September, and that are coached by people who don’t feel “disrespected” when opponents play to win. The Jets should be thankful to be catching a weak opponent, because it’s the only way these days that they end up winning. I’m gonna say by six.

Cleveland (-14) at Cincinnati
I’m thankful that I’m not a Cleveland Browns fan. Really, I feel for Browns fans. I do. They’re good folks (the ones I’ve met). And there but for the grace of the football gods, and all that. But wow. Just … wow. It never gets good, does it? Cincinnati by 17.

Indianapolis (-3) at Houston
I’m thankful for having figured out that while the Colts are surely going to drop a game at some point this season, it serves my purposes not one bit to keep trying to guess when it will come. Colts by two (or possibly not — but you didn’t hear that from me.)

Kansas City (+13.5) at San Diego
I’m thankful for the notion that the Chargers may land the four seed in the playoffs and a divisional round trip to Indianapolis. That’s always a fun matchup (though usually not for Indy.) Chargers by 10.

Jacksonville (+3) at San Francisco
I’m thankful that I don’t have to stress about whether my team can slow down Dave Garrard, though I do suspect the Niners will figure something out. San Francisco by four.

Chicago (+11) at Minnesota
I’m thankful that, Brett Favre’s vote of confidence notwithstanding, I didn’t mortgage my team’s future in a trade for Jay Cutler this past off-season. Vikings by 10.

Arizona (+1) at Tennessee
I’m thankful that the Titans have found a way to bounce back from an awful start to become an entertaining team. Seriously, I am. Way too much packing it in after six weeks in the NFL this season, if you ask me. I still think the Cardinals win this game, mind you, but I credit (and thank) the Titans for continuing to fight.

Pittsburgh (+1) at Baltimore
I’m thankful for feeling relatively confident that years from now, when Ben Roethlisberger is complaining about not having been protected back when he was too stupid to take care of himself, I’ll probably be too old to get worked up about it. Ravens by three no matter who starts under center for Pittsburgh.

New England (+3) at New Orleans
I’m thankful for knowing that the Patriots defense is better than it gets credit for being, and that the Saints defense is a good bit worse than it’s perceived to be. This game comes down to turnovers. Two of them, both of which lead to points. New England, 41-27.

Weeks like this one scare the living bejesus out of me. It all looks sooooo easy, which can only mean one thing: It’s gonna find a way to bite you in the ass. My guess is that at least three of the games with the great big spreads are gonna go the other way. I think I’ve got one of them figured (which means you can count on the favorite to not only win but cover in that game). You’re on your own with the rest. Here’s what not to expect:

Miami (+3) at Carolina
You know, I can’t for the life of me get behind the idea of picking one of these hideously uneven and more hideously unpredictable teams to win. So if it’s all the same to you, I think I’ll just pick one to lose. And there I’ve got to go with the team that can’t move the ball through the air and now finds itself short one running back. Or, turned the other way, I’m taking Carolina, by default, to win. Let’s say by four.

Indianapolis (-1) at Baltimore
You can come at this game any number of ways and it still comes out a coin toss. So here’s what I’m thinking: The Colts are bound to lose a game (maybe two) at some point. And as I look at their schedule this appears to be one of the more likely spots for that inevitable loss to come. That’s really no way to pick football games, but it’s what I’ve got. Ravens by a point.

Washington (+11) at Dallas
So the deal is that the Cowboys are gonna win the NFC East simply because none of the other teams want it, right? And then we’re gonna have to hear Dallas fans doing their little thing for two weeks or so between when the team clinches and when they get eliminated in the first or second round of the playoffs. That’s where it’s going? Great. Thanks, Giants. Thanks, Eagles. Cowboys by 20.

Cleveland (+3.5) at Detroit
OK, here’s the thing, Manjackass. LeBron James isn’t actually going to come and play for your team. Also, if he did, the only thing it would change is ticket sales. Maybe you should get your head out of your daydreams and teach your players how to hold on to the damned ball. Just a thought. I’m taking the Lions and (odd as it is to say) happily giving the points.

San Francisco (+6.5) at Green Bay
Last week, the 49ers put an end to the Bears’ season. This week, the Packers do the same thing to the Niners. Symmetry. Should be about the only thing remotely beautiful about this game. Green Bay by four.

Buffalo (+8.5) at Jacksonville
The last time Buffalo fired a coach mid-season, it was to bring in a guy who would lead them to four consecutive Super Bowls (yeah, I know how those games came out, but that’s not the point; four straight championship game appearances is amazing). This time, it appears they’re at least targeting a guy with the potential to make them a force once again. Should be interesting. For now, though, the team is in disarray. And that rarely sets the stage for good football. Jags by seven.

Pittsburgh (-10) at Kansas City
The Steelers probably were eliminated from real contention for the AFC North title last weekend. But I’m not sure they know it. And even if they do, they’re certainly not gonna put themselves in a position to surrender a wild card slot to Denver, San Diego or Baltimore. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are just finding new holes that need plugging. I’ve generally been reluctant to give double-digit points to Pittsburgh opponents this season, but I don’t see as I have much choice here. Steelers by 13.

Seattle (+11) at Minnesota
I still suspect that just when it looks like Brett Favre isn’t gonna wear down, he’s gonna wear down. But it ain’t gonna happen this weekend. Vikings by 17.

Atlanta (+6.5) at NY Giants
When I heard Gil Brandt point out on Sirius the other day that the home team hasn’t won a game between these two squads since 1991, I initially thought of it as one of those interesting but ultimately meaningless historical points Gil is wont to express. But then I started thinking about the one thing it might reveal about this game, which is that there’s no indication that home field means very much in it. And since a) these teams appear to be fairly evenly matched; and b) the home team in this matchup hasn’t won a game anywhere since October 11, home field is about the only reason I can come up with to even consider picking the Giants. With that off the table, I’m looking for the Falcons to come out ahead by seven-ish.

New Orleans (-11) at Tampa Bay
There’s probably something interesting to be said about this game, but I can’t imagine what it is. OK, well, maybe this: This game arguably pits the NFC’s best team (just don’t make that argument in Minnesota) against its worst. Hooray! Saints by 24, minimum.

Arizona (-9) at St. Louis
With Seattle and San Francisco both headed for almost certain losses, Arizona likely has the opportunity to effectively sew up the NFC West title with a win in this game. So, yeah, that’s pretty exciting, huh? I’m taking the Cardinals and giving the points.

San Diego (+3) at Denver
If I knew Kyle Orton was gonna be able to play, I’d take Denver here without giving it too much thought. I stubbornly remain unsold on the Chargers. But I don’t know about Orton. And I’m scared to death of Chris Simms. So I’m taking San Diego in spite of myself. At least that way if I get burned, I’ll only have myself to blame.

Cincinnati (-9.5) at Oakland
Hey, the Raiders have figured out what everybody else (including a number of people who have never even heard of football) already knew. Good for them. Should really, really help. Like, a lot. Even with some turmoil developing among their running backs, the Bengals should handle the Raiders fairly easily. Cincinnati by nine.

NY Jets (+10.5) at New England
Let the real crying commence. This isn’t the same team you got lucky enough to catch at your place back in week two, Rex. Not by a long shot. Patriots by 31, just to make a point (or maybe a couple of points).

Philadelphia (-3) at Chicago
Neither of these teams appears to have any serious interest in remaining competitive. The Eagles at least have the advantage of playing in a division no one wants to win, which means they still have hope for January even if they shouldn’t. The Bears, on other hand, are thoroughly cooked. Their season ended last Thursday night in San Francisco. And I sort of suspect they’re not gonna be able to play their way through that. Eagles by a field goal.

Tennessee (+4.5) at Houston
Yeah, the Titans have been hot lately. And the Texans are, as ever, hot and cold. But it’s hard for me to imagine a Tennessee defense that’s had limited success this season and that hasn’t really turned much of anything around even during its three-game win streak (which includes home wins against Jacksonville and Buffalo) proving to be much of a factor against a Texans offense that’s been a fairly consistent producer of points since week two. I’m taking Houston and giving the four and a half.

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen two teams try so hard to lose a game as I did last night. Let’s hope that fiasco doesn’t set the tone for the weekend. Here’s what not to expect.

Detroit (+16.5) at Minnesota
Do you need me to say something about this game? God, I hope not. Because I’ve got nothing. Not one blessed thing. Vikings by 10.

Denver (-3.5) at Washington
I’m very confused by the line on this game. In six losses this season, the Native Americans have once come within three and a half points of their opponent. That was Carolina. And that was with Clinton Portis, who won’t be available for this game. So how does that math work out? For me, it works out to taking Denver and giving the points. Hell, I’d give twice the damned points if I had to.

Tampa Bay (+10) at Miami
You can’t have success against the Dolphins if you can’t play run defense. And man alive can the Bucs not play run defense. Miami by 17.

Buffalo (+6.5) at Tennessee
There are two teams in the NFL that aspire to defend the run as “well” as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers do. One of them is the Buffalo Bills. Titans by a touchdown.

New Orleans (-13.5) at St. Louis
There is the potential here for an entire NFL game to be played without a single punt. Why? Because the Saints are likely to score every time they get the ball. And the Rams are equally likely to see their every offensive possession end in a turnover. I’m thinking I don’t really need to say this outright, but, yeah, I’m taking the Saints and giving the points.

Jacksonville (+7) at NY Jets
There’s a perception out there that last week’s win may signal that the Jaguars have figured out how to right their problem defense. And you never know; that could be the case. But you’ll forgive me if I say I’d like to see Jacksonville perform well against a team that isn’t rebuilding before I come to any conclusions. Jets by a touchdown (yes, with the extra point).

Atlanta (-1.5) at Carolina
This is the game for week 10 that’s gonna go the other way no matter how I pick it. I’ve got exactly two thoughts, both of them purely hunch based. First, I think Carolina’s inability to hold onto the football is more likely to be a problem in this game than Atlanta’s inability to stop the run. (But, honestly, it could easily work out the other way around.) Second, I have a feeling last weekend’s collapse will ultimately prove more deflating to the Panthers than their 0-3 start. I’m taking Atlanta and giving the point and a half, knowing I’m gonna be wrong.

Cincinnati (+7) at Pittsburgh
The Bengals took care of business when they got the Steelers at home back in week three. And they handled the Ravens, who run a similar D to Pittsburgh’s, pretty good last week. And they’ve got a damned good run defense and some pickoff specialists lurking in the secondary. So you’ve gotta figure they’ve got a shot here. I’m not sure any of that will be enough, frankly. But it’s something to pin your hopes on if you’re a Cincy fan. And reason enough for me to feel pretty good about the Bengals at least covering. Pittsburgh by three.

Kansas City (+2) at Oakland
Neither of these teams is worth the time it’s gonna take me to type out this pick. But here it is: The Raiders offense manages an average of 9.8 points per game. 9.8. That’s not even two scores. And what’s crazy is, Oakland’s not the lowest scoring team in the league. They’re tied with Cleveland at 31st, .2 points per game ahead of St. Louis. You know where else the Raiders are tied for second-to-last place? Giveaway-takeaway. They’re at -9. And while the Chiefs have shown me very little by way of promise this season, I can’t pick a team as awful as the Raiders. I just can’t. Kansas City by three.

Dallas (-3) at Green Bay
Yeah, I know. The Cowboys are on a nice little run since coming back from their week six bye. And the Packers have looked … let’s say less than good in back-to-back losses to Minnesota and, ulp, Tampa Bay these last two weeks. Still, I have a hard time picking any team to beat a second consecutive strong opponent on the road. And I have to imagine the Packers are gonna be pissed off and looking to prove something (even if only to themselves). So I’m looking for the home squad to pull of the upset here. Packers by six.

Philadelphia (+2) at San Diego
Given the way they’ve been playing of late, I’m not sure I’d be willing to pick the Eagles if they had a secondary. And apparently they don’t. So I’m taking the Chargers and giving the points.

Seattle (+8.5) at Arizona
A team is going to win the NFC West this season. Just like every season. And it’s going to be every bit as much an injustice as it ever is that whatever team that is gets a home playoff game. Oh, well. Cardinals by 13-ish.

New England (+3) at Indianapolis
If I thought there were anything, like one single thing, I could write about this game that hasn’t been said or written a million times in a million other places this week, I’d get right to it. But, let’s face it, this is the most overanalyzed game not just this week but this season. There’s nothing left. So I’ll just point out that the difference in this game will almost have to come by way of defensive plays. Because, look, both teams bring powerhouse offenses to the field. And neither team has been anything more or less than middle of the pack in terms of special teams play (overall, that is; the Patriots are near the top of the list in field goals and the Colts are at the bottom in terms of kickoffs and punting, but overall it comes out to average on both sides of the ball with New England having maybe a very slight edge). So it’s about D. That pretty much means it’s a matter of whether you believe the Colts’ pass rush or the Patriots’ secondary will be the unit that makes the two or three big plays that will decide the game. And I have more faith in New England’s O line than I have in the Colts receivers, particularly given the fact that Indy doesn’t have a running offense you have to worry all that much about, which should free up the Pats DBs to maintain tight coverage. I expect to see a game that’s competitive from start to finish, but I expect the Patriots to come out ahead, by the margin of one score (whether it’ll be a field goal or a touchdown, I can’t say, but it doesn’t matter since the visiting Patriots are getting points).

Baltimore (-10.5) at Cleveland
Nice bit of scheduling here, NFL. I mean, I get that this is a rivalry game (of sorts), but, hell, I knew the Browns were gonna suck this season. Most of the football watching world knew the Browns were gonna suck this season (even Cleveland fans knew it). So how did you not pick up on that? Ravens by 17 (at halftime, which is about as late as anyone will still be paying attention).

I’m not gonna be able to finish all of my picks before tonight’s game starts, so I might as well kick off the getting things wrong for week ten with the only matchup that matters for the nonce.

Chicago (+3) at San Francisco
There’s not much to get excited about with either of these middling NFC squads, particularly on defense. Ultimately, I suppose I have less concern about how San Fran’s weak pass defense matches up against Chicago’s pass-oriented offense than I have about how the Bears, and their weak run D, match up with the Niners and their balanced offensive attack. I’ll take San Fran straight up, though I think the Bears can hold the margin down to a point or two.

OK, so this week we’ve got to see a significant upset somewhere in the NFL. Right? I mean, right? Once again, though, I challenge anyone to tell me where to look for it. Here’s what not to expect.

Baltimore (-3) at Cincinnati
Here’s what I’m trying to figure out: What do you do, when you’re looking ahead to this game, with the fact that the Bengals four weeks ago went into Baltimore and upset the Ravens. Because, you know, on one hand if they did it there, they should be able to do it in their own stadium, right? But on the other, it’s hard to sweep a good team in the regular season, and Baltimore has a good team. There’s no answer to be found in the stats. Yeah, the Ravens have a bit of a statistical edge, but a good bit of that is negated by the Bengals’ home-field advantage. And most of the rest has to do with the Ravens being near impossible to run against, something that hardly posed a problem for Ced Benson last time around. Giveaway-takeaway doesn’t help. Nothing. Or at least none of my tricks are holding up. So do I fall back on the home team? Or do I fall back on the favorite? Or do I pull my hair out because I’ve gotta make a choice. Ultimately, I guess what I’ll do is figure that the Ravens need the win more. Lose this game and winning the AFC North becomes pretty close to impossible if you’re Baltimore (they’d be 4-4 overall, 1-2 in the division while Cincy would be 6-2, 4-0). So I’ll take the Ravens straight up, though I wouldn’t give more than a point.

Arizona (+3) at Chicago
So I guess, based on what I’ve been hearing and reading, that I’m supposed to be impressed by the fact that the Cardinals are 3-0 on the road. And I would be, if they weren’t 1-3 at home. I mean, you just can’t go around throwing stuff out there like it’s happening in a vacuum. Plus, guess what: The Cardinals are 3-0 on the road? The Bears are 3-0 at home. I may be getting this wrong, but I’m thinking the home winning streak is the easier one to maintain. So, yeah, the Cardinals are probably the better team, but I’m still taking the Bears. Straight up. It’s a push with the points.

Washington (+10) at Atlanta
Is it just me or are there maybe more important things for the Native Americans’ coaching staff to focus on right now than whether John Riggins is being unfair to Dan Snyder? Falcons by 14.

Green Bay (-9.5) at Tampa Bay
Let’s see. The Buccaneers rank 29th in the league in total offense (though, good news, Tampa fans, they’re tied for 28th in scoring) and 24th in total defense (though, bad news, Tampa fans, they’re 30th in points allowed). Plus, the Bucs giveaway-takeaway differential is minus-two, while the Packers are tied for a league-best plus-12. So, yeah, this ought to be close. I’m taking the Packers and I’d happily give double the points.

Miami (+10.5) at New England
Last season, Joey Porter was back to being a fine football player. This season, he’s back to being just another guy with more talent for running his mouth. than for playing football. That seems unlikely to help the Dolphins in this game. Patriots by 17.

Kansas City (+6.5) at Jacksonville
You know, considering last week’s debacle, I’d be sorely tempted to take the Chiefs if they only had a running game. But they don’t, so it’s kind of a non-issue. Jags by three.

Houston (+9) at Indianapolis
The Colts are gonna start to feel the sting of the major injury losses their defense has suffered. Next weekend. This week they’re offense ought to be able to carry the team. I’ll take Houston with the nine, but the Texans aren’t good enough to challenge the Colts straight up.

Carolina (+13) at New Orleans
I love that there’s this idea floating around out there that the Panthers can beat the Saints. Because, um, no they can’t. I don’t even see them coming within two touchdowns. I’m taking the Saints and giving the points.

Detroit (+10) at Seattle
It’s hard to imagine Seattle beating any team by better than 10 points. Equally hard to imagine the Lions keeping it closer than 10 on the road. So let’s go ahead and expect this one to come in at exactly the oddsmakers’ margin. Seahawks win 27-17.

Tennessee (+4.5) at San Francisco
The 49ers are hardly a great football team, but I assure you, they’re not giving up anything like the 305 yards of rushing offense the Titans got from their last opponents. I’m taking San Fran and giving the points.

San Diego (+4.5) at NY Giants
I can’t imagine the Giants losing a fourth straight game. Or the Chargers winning a third straight. Or, frankly, given the San Diego defense’s complete inability to stop the run, the Chargers offense having the ball more than 20 minutes. Giants by eight.

Dallas (+3) at Philadelphia
I don’t know what to make of either of these teams. (Like everybody else, though some won’t admit it, I’ve got a good feel for the identity of exactly one team in the NFC East, and it’s the definitively sucky one.) All I for sure is this: The Cowboys’ giveaway-takeaway differential is minus-one; the Eagles’ is a league-best plus-12. That’s a difference of nearly two takeaways a game in Philly’s favor, which I figure has gotta be worth at least a touchdown. And since I’m rounding up slightly on the give-take average, I’ll round down by shaving off the extra point. Eagles by six.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Denver
It’s not often the Steelers’ D is the lesser of two in a given game. And there are a lot of people who’ll tell you it isn’t in this one. But it is. And that’ll be the difference. Broncos, 13-10.