This Football Blog

The big danger in picking week two games is that you think you know what’s going on based on what you saw in week one, but there’s no way to know which of the opening game results were real and which were flukes. All you can do, all you can ever do, is pick based on what you think you know. And go in understanding that you’re probably gonna get more wrong than you get right. The good news: there’s a built-in excuse. I just gave it. Here’s what not to expect.

Buffalo (+13) at Green Bay
Look, the Dolphins are a playoff contender. It’s not like the Bills’ embarrassing home opener came against, oh, let’s say the Rams. Still, 166 yards of total offense? Fifty yards on the ground? Three of 14 in third down conversions.? At home? And, you know, it’s not like the Fins were getting the most out of their offense. Something tells me the Packers offense might prove a bit more of a challenge. So, yeah, I’m gonna give the 13. I’d probably give 20.

Baltimore (-1.5) at Cincinnati
I wasn’t sold on Cincinnati going into the season. I came out of last weekend even surer that the Bengals won’t repeat as AFC North champs. (Not to take anything away from the Patriots, who played the best all-around game I’ve seen from them since 2007.) Then again, I also came out of Monday night with a lot less confidence in Baltimore’s potential than I had going in. The Ravens are playing their second consecutive road game, never an easy thing. And they’re doing it on short rest, against a division rival that’s had a good bit of success against them in recent seasons. So although I’m doing it somewhat reluctantly, I’m taking Cincinnati straight up here. I’m expecting to see the Bengals take the win at the wire, coming out ahead by a point, maybe two.

Pittsburgh (+5) at Tennessee
The Steelers aren’t stopping Chris Johnson. And Dennis Dixon isn’t beating the Titans D. Tennessee by a touchdown.

Chicago (+8.5) at Dallas
The Bears are a bad decision by Calvin Johnson away from having lost their home opener. The Cowboys are 0-1 because their O-line is a complete mess. I don’t like either of these teams. I can’t take Chicago straight up. But I’m sure as hell not taking Dallas to win by more than a touchdown. Cowboys by four.

Philadelphia (-4.5) at Detroit
I know it’s been a long time since Michael Vick started a game in the NFL, but I’ll take my chances with him against a defense that gave up 372 passing yards and a pair of TDs to Jay Cutler Eagles by six.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Carolina
I’d love to take the Bucs in honor of Talk Like a Pirate Day, but, you know, it’s not like t his game’s being played at sea. So I’m going with Carolina. And as long as Matt Moore’s head isn’t totally swimming, I’m thinking the difference should be something like six.

Arizona (+6.5) at Atlanta
Although they were singularly unimpressive last week, I still think the Falcons will find a way to beat the starting quarterback-less Cardinals. But probably not by more than three.

Kansas City (+2) at Cleveland
The consensus of experts seems to me that the young Chiefs probably can’t repeat their success from Monday night traveling to Cleveland on a short week. That reasoning’s sound, I suppose. But something tells me the experts are underestimating Kansas City again. I went along with that mistake last week. I’m not doing it again. I’m taking the Chiefs to win it.

Miami (+5.5) at Minnesota
It won’t be long before Brandon Marshall has his first breakout game in t Dolphins uniform, but it’s not coming here. That’s nothing to do with Marshall. It’s the Dolphins’ offensive line. If you give up three sacks to Buffalo, what happens when you come up against a team with an actual pass rush? Add the that the Dolphins are on the road for a second straight week while the Vikings are playing on 10 days rest, and the choice is fairly obvious: Minnesota, I’m thinking the Vikes win by somewhere around nine.

Seattle (+3.5) at Denver
Yeah, you know what? I’m still not buying into Seattle. Win this one, even though I’m in no way impressed by Denver, and I’ll start to think about changing my mind. Broncos dink and dunk their way to a three-point victory.

St. Louis (+4) at Oakland
One of these teams has to win. And the Raiders are at home. And, as mentioned, Sunday’s Talk Like a Pirate Day. So, sure, I’ll take Oakland straight up. Why not? Raiders by a field goal.

Houston (-3) at Washington
I wasn’t impressed by what I saw from the Racial Slurs on Sunday night, were you? And, you know, I’m pretty sure the team Houston beat last week is a bit better than Washington. Texans by four.

Jacksonville (+8) at San DiegoYou know what would be entertaining? Watching the Chargers self-destruct completely if they were to find a way to lose this game. It’s not gonna happen, of course, but it’s fun just to imagine. San Diego by 10.

New England (-2) at NY Jets
It may be odd to think in week two, but the Jersey Frat Boys have their backs up against the wall here. Because, look, they drop this game, they’re not just opening the season 0-2. Nor even just opening 0-2 with a loss to the team they came into the season hoping to unseat at the top of their division. They’re doing both of those things without having played a road game. That’s no small matter. So if you’re inclined to go with the “team that needs it most” philosophy of picking, you probably favor the Frat Boys. The problem with that thinking, though, is that it only really works when all (or at least most) other things are equal. And they’re not in this matchup. New Jersey, for all the hype achieved heading into the season, has bigger problems than the mere fact that they dropped their home opener. Their bigtime cornerback‘s extended holdout netted him not only a big, new contract but some bonus hamstring trouble. They’re down a hell of a nose tackle. They’ve got problems on the left side of their O-line that aren’t going away. They’ve got a distinct lack of receivers and a quarterback who probably couldn’t deliver the ball if the receivers were there. And they’re playing on short rest. My guess is that the Patriots will put eight men in the box early and challenge Mark Sanchez to beat them. And if New England gets a lead and doesn’t need to sweat Shonn Greene they’ll let loose with the pass rush and make it a long, long day for the home team. In case you haven’t guessed yet, I’m taking New England. And, yes, I’m giving the two stinking points.

NY Giants (+5.5) at Indianapolis
Manning Bowl! Manning Bowl! Manning Bowl! Sounds exciting, doesn’t it? Almost seems like it could be a good game given that the Giants are off to a and the Colts … well, aren’t. But the thing about it being the Manning Bowl is that thinking about what that means forces you to confront the fact that Peyton just has better targets than Eli. At least that’s the case right now, which is when this game is being played – in Indianapolis. Colts by a touchdown.

New Orleans (-4.5) at San Francisco
The champs will have had 11 days rest by the time this thing kicks off. The hosts will be eight days removed from getting their heads knocked off by a team that may yet prove to be better than anyone anticipated, but that almost certainly isn’t on the same level as the Saints. New Orleans by 10.

Well, the 2010 season sort of failed to start with a bang, didn’t it? And the thing is, it might be weeks yet before we know for sure whether it was a matter of both Minnesota and New Orleans having stellar defenses or (I’m leaning in this direction) the Vikings having a stout D and a fairly inept offense. I guess that’s neither here nor there for the moment, though. What matters now is that it’s time I quit stalling and got to the bad predictions. Here we go again. What not to expect:

Cleveland (+3) at Tampa Bay
Look, I’ve always liked Jake Delhomme, OK? So I hope I wrong. But I’m pretty sure he’s done. And I’m pretty sure it’s hard to succeed in the NFL when your starting quarterback is … well, done. Even when you’re playing a Bucs team that’s pointed in the right direction but has a good way to travel before they actually get anywhere. Bucs by a field goal.

Miami (-3) at Buffalo
You know what I really, really don’t enjoy? Feeling like I have to pick the road team in a divisional matchup on opening weekend. Thing is, I just can’t see the Bills D having a lot of luck stopping the Dolphins. Brandon Marshall all by himself makes the Miami passing attack tougher to shut down. That means you can’t stack the box to shut down the run. And run D hasn’t been a strong suit for the Bills in recent seasons. It all adds up to points for the Dolphins, points I can’t see the Bills finding a way to match. So I’m taking the road team in the divisional opener. And, yeah, I’m giving the points.

Cincinnati (+4.5) at New England
Three words of advice: Bet the over. Because, look, I just don’t see a lot of defense happening in this game. The Patriots during the pre-season failed to display any hint of a pass rush. That’s gonna expose their young secondary (a unit that I believe will improve dramatically as the season rolls on, but that needs to make some progress yet), especially when they’re up against the kind of receivers the Bengals are putting on the field this season. Then again, if the Patriots’ offense is the unit it appears to be on paper and in the pre-season, there aren’t many Ds that are gonna contain it all season. And Cincinnati certainly doesn’t appear to have the defensive stuff to do the job. So that’s a big day of scoring. And, ultimately, if we’re looking at a shootout, I like the squad with Tom Brady pulling the trigger. Patriots by seven.

Indianapolis (-2) at Houston
As I wrote in my season predictions post earlier in the week, I’ll buy into this year’s “Houston’s coming on” hype when I’ve got a damned good reason to. Like, you know, if I’m wrong about this game and the Texans top the Colts. But that won’t happen. Indy by nine.

Denver (+2.5) at Jacksonville
If I had my druthers, I’d find a way to pick both teams to lose. But it doesn’t work that way. So I’m splitting the difference. I’m taking the Jags straight up, and the Broncos with the points.

Atlanta (-2) at Pittsburgh
This game would be easier to pick if Ben Douchelisbagger weren’t serving a four-game suspension. In that case, I’d happily give five times the points. Still and all, I like the Falcons by a field goal.

Oakland (+6) at Tennessee
If you’re Oakland, you’ve got one option in this game: Stack the box, limit Chris Johnson‘s production, and force Vince Young to beat you through the air. The only problem is, I’m not sure the Raiders can pull it off. Tennessee by four.

Carolina (+7) at NY Giants
I keep hearing about how the Panthers manhandled the Giants in New Jersey at the end of last season. But, you know, old season, old stadium, young Carolina team. I’m going with New Jersey straight up, though I like Carolina to keep it closer than seven.

Detroit (+7) at Chicago
Eight words I almost can’t believe I’m typing: I’m taking the Lions and giving the points. (On the road, no less. In a divisional game. In Chicago. How weird is that?)

Arizona (-4) at St. Louis
The Cardinals have no quarterback. The Rams have no football team. I’ll go with Arizona. Let’s say by six.

Green Bay (-3) at Philadelphia
I won’t be surprised at all if these teams end up meeting again in January, possibly rather late in the month. That game will take place in Green Bay, partially as a result of the outcome of this one. Packers by four.

San Francisco (-3) at Seattle
Here I go again, taking a road team in a week one divisional match. And here I go again asking this question: What choice do I have?

Dallas (-4) at Washington
This time I’ll take the underdog home squad. Why? Because I just don’t believe in Tony Romo, particularly when he’s playing behind a highly suspect O line. That’s the long and short of it.

Baltimore (+2.5) at NY Jets
I’d say it’s time for Rex Ryan and his gang of idiots to put up or shut up, but I rather suspect they’ll do neither. Ravens by six.

San Diego (-4.5) at Kansas City
I think the Chiefs keep this one close. I’m looking for a fairly low-scoring affair (which, you know, will bookend the week in a way) in which the Chargers come out ahead by two or three. Let’s go with 16-13.

Even though I don’t have a whole lot to say about this week’s slate of games (what am I gonna do, analyze stats and trends?), I’m not gonna be able to finish my picks for the week before tonight’s season opener (yeah!) kicks off. So here’s what I’ve got on that game. I’ll get to the rest soon enough.

Minnesota (+5) at New Orleans
It’s pretty exciting to start the new season with a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship. No matter how it turns out. I’m kinda with the oddsmakers on this one in that I expect a Saints win and I don’t expect the score to be quite as close as the title game’s. That said, I sure would enjoy seeing Brett Favre cost his team another win by throwing a stupid pick at the worst possible moment. I’m just sort of messed up that way. Saints by a touchdown.

Earlier this year (think early February), I came to the conclusion that I was done making predictions of any sort related to football. Just done. No more weekly game picks. And certainly no more absurd exercises in pretending I have any chance of knowing how an entire season (and post season of NFL football is likely to turn out.

That, it appears, was my first bad prediction of 2010. Because, look, here I am, making predictions that can’t possibly work out. Unless, you know, my idea of things working out is that I get to look like even more of an idiot than I actually am. And, baby, that’s never been nearly as hard as it ought to be.

OK, so as usual, I’ll start out by noting that all I can predict with any real confidence is that at least one team that I think is gonna suck is gonna accomplish something meaningful (by which I mean a division title at least and maybe even a Super Bowl victory), and at least one team that I expect to see great things from is gonna finish the season in the cellar. I know this because that’s how it always works out for everyone who tries to peg football results going five months into the future. So, you know, at least I’m in good company. Or awful company. Probably awful company. I can’t talk about that with any degree of accuracy, either.

So here we go. I’m gonna make some predictions. And if they haven’t all gone completely to hell before the inevitable meltdown of the entire Cincinnati locker room, I’ll be as shocked as you are.

Regular Season Records
A couple years ago, I actually did give up trying to predict NFL teams’ season records. Because, well, come on already. But the thing is, you’re not making predictions if you don’t predict something. So here’s what I’ve got for you: a range of the total wins I think each team is likely to achieve. In theory, that approach should give me a better chance of coming out right. In practice, not so much. Still and all, here we go.

AFC East
New England Patriots, 9-12
It all comes down to the pass rush. If the Pats discover one, they should be one of those teams that turns the corner around mid-season, maybe wins its final six games, and looks dangerous heading into January. If they don’t, it’s not gonna matter if offense and special teams are improved over 2010, because the young secondary is gonna wear down, and New England’s gonna be lucky to back into the playoffs as a wild card squad.

Miami Dolphins, 9-12
Much to the dismay of the people of New Jersey, the Dolphins are actually the AFC East’s most improved team. And the squad with the most potential to displace New England at the top of the division.

New York Jets, 7-9
With Darrelle Revis back on the field, the Jets should have a hell of a defense. That’ll win them six games. Let’s see if the offense can account for more than a win or two now that everyone’s figured out how to force Mark Sanchez to make awful decisions.

Buffalo Bills, 4-7
The Bills are trying hard to claw their way out of the basement, and they may yet get there. But not this season.

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens, 11-14
The Ravens might be the best team in the conference. And, yeah, it’s got a lot to do with their defense. But don’t be surprised if this squad puts up a ton of points. If you can do that, and you can control the ball with your running game, you can make a talented defense look even better. .

Cincinnati Bengals, 5-11
For the Bengals, it’s all about how the season starts. Cincinnati’s got a tough first four weeks. If they come out of it 2-2 or better, they could get hot and make a nice run at the playoffs. If they come out of it 1-3 or 0-4, the things are gonna get pretty tense pretty quick in that locker room. And it all falls apart from there.

Pittsburgh Steelers, 8-9
Not a huge range there. That’s mostly because I’m pretty sure I know what the Steelers are. Average. Maybe just above average. That’s it.

Cleveland Browns, 3-6
Because they’re still the Browns. That’s why.

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts, 11-13
I’ve given up predicting the demise of the Colts. Now, maybe that’s a mistake. Maybe in the wake of Super Bowl XXXIV, Indy finally takes a nosedive. But I doubt it. Not in the AFC South as currently configured.

Houston Texans, 3-12
Because maybe this is the year when the team that always looks like it’s on the brink turns out actually to be there. And maybe not. Again.

Tennessee Titans, 6-9
Chris Johnson is a phenomenal football player, but he’s not an entire team. And as a unit, the Titans appear to have settled into a period of dedicated mediocrity.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-6
Coming in 2011 (assuming there’s a season): new coach, new quarterback.

AFC West
San Diego Chargers, 10-12
IN any other division in the AFC, the Chargers would be a nine-win team. But in the weak AFC West, and with a schedule that puts them up against the even weaker NFC West, the Chargers have shot at a bye in the first weekend of the post-season.

Kansas City Chiefs, 7-10
I think the Chiefs are gonna surprise a lot of people. They’ll start slow, (maybe even going 1-3 over their first four games), but they should pull even, and maybe get to 5-3, by mid-season. And if they can build on that, they may find themselves competing for a playoff berth when they host Oakland to close the season.

Denver Broncos, 3-6
The Broncos are banged up and thin on talent. That’s a really, really bad combination.

Oakland Raiders, 3-6
There are, for the first time since 2002, reasons to feel optimistic about the Raiders. The defense looks like it could be amazing. You still have to be able to actually score points to win NFL football games, though, and I don’t see a lot of reasons to anticipate that Oakland will be able to do that.

NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles, 9-11
The NFC East might not be the powerhouse division that it’s cracked up to be this season, but it should still be highly competitive. That means Kevin Kolb’s gonna have to prove he’s worthy of the faith the Eagles clearly have in him. I suspect he’s up to the task. But if he comes out of the gate slow, things could get ugly fast.

New York Giants, 9-11
The Giants’ chances in the division will have everything to do with whether their receiving corps rounds into some kind of form by mid-season.

Washington Native Americans, 8-10
If Donovan McNabb is healthy and the offensive line can hold, Washington can compete for a wild card spot. The Native Americans defense certainly appears ready to do its part. But if that O-line isn’t improved, neither Mike Shanahan’s offense nor McNabb’s skills are gonna be able to save this squad.

Dallas Cowboys, 7-9
Yeah, the Boys have guys who can catch the ball. But they’re still counting on Tony Romo to get it to them. I’ll believe that formula can succeed when I see it.

NFC North
Green Bay Packers, 11-14
If it weren’t for the fact that the Super Bowl champion Saints are virtually the same team they were a year ago, I’d be saying the Pack are hands down the best team in the conference. And that’s not just because of Aaron Rodgers, though, obviously, he’s a hell of a quarterback. The Packers are a balanced football team. Balanced in the sense that they should excel in both offense and defense. And balanced in the sense that they’re not at obvious risk of becoming one-dimensional on either side of the ball. That’s the stuff champions are made of.

Minnesota Vikings, 7-9
Last season, Brett Favre and the Vikings got within one stupid play of the Super Bowl. This year, they’re out to take it the next step. It’s not gonna happen. This team is going in the wrong direction, and they won’t get turned around until Favre actually retires.

Detroit Lions, 5-7
Hey, look at that. I’m not expecting the Lions to totally tank. And I’m not alone. It’s like waking up in an alternate dimension. Enjoy the ascent to near mediocrity, Lions fans.

Chicago Bears, 3-5
Jay Cutler isn’t the kind of quarterback you want playing behind a highly questionable offensive line. That situation has disaster written all over it.

NFC South
New Orleans Saints, 10-12
The Super Bowl champion Saints are essentially the same team they were a year ago. That’s mostly a good thing. But they’re playing a tougher schedule and coming off an extended season. Both of those things should hurt. Not enough to cost New Orleans a division crown, but enough to cost them the conference one seed. And a visit to Green Bay in late January could be highly problematic.

Atlanta Falcons, 9-11
The Falcons can contend for the division title, but they’ll need help from the Saints to take it. And I don’t see that happening.

Carolina Panthers, 5-8
This is John Fox’s last season in Carolina. Next season, he gets to start building a winning squad somewhere else. This season, he gets to watch his miserable defense dig holes his talented, but not elite, offense can’t dig out of.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2-6
The Bucs appear to be headed in the right direction, but I’ve heard that tune before. And it doesn’t matter this season either way.

NFC West
San Francisco 49ers, 9-11
The Niners are a decent enough team that will look great at times by virtue of playing an incredibly weak schedule. They’ll win the division, then lose to a wild card team in the first week of the playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals, 6-8
You know what’s a good thing to have on your roster in the NFL? A starting quarterback. Someone notify the Cards. In any other division, Arizona’s a six-win team at best. But when you play the NFC West (twice) and the AFC West, you get extra opportunities to back into victories. How exciting.

Seattle Seahawks, 2-5
The Seahawks are rebuilding. And they’ve got a long way to go. Two games against the Rams essentially spots them two wins. After that, it’s a crapshoot.

St. Louis Rams, 0-3
With the first pick in the 2011 draft, the Rams select Robert Quinn, defensive end from North Carolina.

Playoffs
Because this exercise isn’t quite silly enough already.

AFC Seedings
1. Baltimore
2. Indianapolis
3. San Diego
4. New England
5. Miami
6. Kansas City

NFC Seedings
1. Green Bay
2. New Orleans
3. Philadelphia
4. San Francisco
5. NY Giants
6. Atlanta

Wild Card Playoffs
AFC
Kansas City defeats San Diego
New England defeats Miami

NFC
NY Giants defeat San Francisco
Atlanta defeats Philadelphia

Divisional Playoffs
AFC
Baltimore defeats Kansas City
New England defeats Indianapolis

NFC
Green Bay defeats Atlanta
NY Giants defeat New Orleans

Conference Championships
AFC
Baltimore defeats New England

NFC
Green Bay defeats NY Giants

Super Bowl XLV
Green Bay defeats Baltimore, 33-27

That’s it. All the stuff you can expect to not happen for an entire season at a glance. How’s that for service?

New Orleans (+5) vs. Indianapolis
I think you can forget about trying to figure out whether, and/or at what level, Dwight Freeney will play. Same for whether the Saints will manage to get in their remember me shots on Peyton Manning. Because, sure, Freeney’s ankle could be a factor. The guy’s primary role is as a pass rusher and he relies on a spin move to be effective in that role. If his ankle affects his ability to make that move, it could make the day a good bit easier on Drew Brees. But we’re not going to have any idea of what Freeney can and can’t do until the game is well under way. And, sure, if the Saints D can get in the kind of shots on manning that it delivered against Brett Favre in the NFC Championship, it could have a significant impact on the game. But you don’t see defenses get to Manning that way very much, and there’s a reason for that: his release is too damned quick. Maybe it’ll be different for the Saints (like, if they can figure out a solution for the way the Colts move Dallas Clark all over the place, which confounds the hell out of most pass rushes, they might be able to get in some unexpected hits), but there’s no way you can count on that.

Ultimately, I’m not sure any of it matters much. Unless you actually manage to take out one of the quarterbacks — a possibility so unlikely it’s not even worth discussing — both of these offenses are gonna produce, no matter what you try to accomplish on D. That’s what they do. And while I think the Saints D matches up marginally better against the Colts offense than the Colts defense does against the Saints offense, I don’t think either unit has the ability to do much more than occasionally slow the opposition down.

So what does make the difference here? Dunno.

More likely than not, it’s gonna be a matter of who has the ball last. But since there’s no accounting for that, I’m left to look at turnovers and special teams. And in both of those areas, the Saints appear to have a slight edge. New Orleans finished the season with a giveaway/takeaway differential of plus-11; Indy wrapped up with a plus-2. In the playoffs, the Saints are at plus-7, the Colts at plus-3. (It bears note that the Saints have got most of their post-season turnovers by way of fumbles, and the Colts by and large don’t fumble; but then you’d also have to consider that the Colts do give up picks and interceptions accounted for the better part of the Saints’ regular season takeaways.) The Saints return both punts and kickoffs better than the Colts. New Orleans punt and kickoff coverage also has been consistently better than Indy’s.

Honestly, I remain unsure of how to pick this game. But since every place I try to find any potential edge I come up with the Saints leading by a hair, I’m gonna look for the upset here. New Orleans 41-37.

I’ll tip my hand right now. I’m looking for the conference one seeds to meet in the Super Bowl for the first time in sixteen years. Also, I’m an idiot. So you can pretty much bet that’s not gonna happen. Here’s what not to expect.

NY Jets (+8) at Indianapolis
OK, so here’s the thing: I want — on some level, I really, really want — to scoff at the very notion that the Jets can win this game. I want to laugh at the very suggestion that this game can play out like Super Bowl III revisited. I want to point out that Weeb Ewbank is not walking through that door. Randy Beverly is not walking through that door. And the only door Joe Namath is walking through is the door to the press box. And, you know, that’s all true. But I can’t stop thinking about how much Darrelle Revis reminds me of Ty Law, and of the way Law was always Peyton Manning‘s worst nightmare. (Remember Law’s three picks of Manning in the 2003 AFC Championship?) And, you know, it’s not like Revis isn’t gonna get his opportunities; Manning is going to throw to Reggie Wayne in this game. It’s all a matter of whether Revis can make the right reads at the right moments, and I know that he’s got some advice from Ty on how to do that. That all makes me think, well, hell, maybe the Jets really do have a chance. And, man, wouldn’t it be somehow perfect to see the Colts fall to a team they let into the playoffs? But, you know, just like the 2009 Jets, who backed into the playoffs with a regular season record of 9-7, aren’t the 1968 Jets, who went 11-3 and won the AFL Eastern Division title, neither are they the 2003 Patriots, a team that had won 13 straight games by the time the Colts got to Foxborough (which also brings up the point that the Pats hosted that championship game). Revis is a phenomenal football player, but his team, while red hot, doesn’t have anything like the offense that Pats team did. It’s one thing for a defense to give you opportunities, quite another to be able to take advantage of them. And it’s hard for me to see the Jets doing quite enough with their opportunities to keep up with the Colts, who will put up points even if Manning delivers a ball or two into Revis’ hands. I think it’s the Jets weaknesses on offense that ultimately make the difference in this game. I see a low-scoring affair in which the Colts may trail late, but will ultimately come out on top. I’m thinking Indy wins by a score of something along the lines of 20-16.

Minnesota (+3.5) at New Orleans
Drew Brees isn’t winning this game. Come Monday morning, it may look very much as if he did, but that won’t be the real story of what happens here. Because if the Saints come out ahead, it’s going to be for one of two reasons. Either it’s gonna happen in the trenches — with New Orleans’ stellar offensive line holding off Minnesota’s amazing pass rush (and giving Brees the time he needs to find open receivers) — or it’s gonna happen on the other side of the ball, with Brett Favre reverting to form and finding a way to make the one or two crucial mistakes that add up to a losses in big games. And actually, I’m not sure it won’t be a little bit of both. The Vikings D linemen are going to find a way to get to Brees at least some of the time. The big question is, how much of the time? Because if it’s only a matter of sacking him once or twice and flushing him out of the pocket on a handful of plays, that’s not gonna be enough. There’s only so much you can ask of any secondary; if the Vikings aren’t chasing Brees around throughout most of the game, he’s going to put up points. And if Favre is put in a position where he feels like it’s on him to win the game, he’s gonna do just the opposite. Gregg Williams’ defense is solvable. Despite recent performance as the New Orleans D has grown healthier, I still believe the unit remains a potentially fatal weakness. The thing about solving Williams’ D, though (and this has always been the case — in Buffalo, in Washington, in Jacksonville, and New Orleans) is that it requires a patient quarterback. Favre has a bad habit of being just the opposite, particularly when he thinks he needs to pull out the heroics. Go gunslinger on this D, which logged the third highest pick total in the league during the regular season, and you stand a good chance of throwing a good bit more than the ball away. And that’s exactly what I expect to see Favre do, particularly if his team’s trailing by 10 or more as the second half wears on. I think we’ll see a game that’s competitive for three quarters, possibly a bit longer, but that ends with the Saints up by no less than 13 points.

Yeah, OK, I stunk up the joint in the wild card round. But let’s be honest, so did you. So did everyone. Plus, I’m always warning you that the only thing you can count on me to be is wrong. So, you know, here’s more of that.

Arizona (+7) at New Orleans
If the Cardinals could put up 51 on the Packers, a team that had an actual defense, what do you think they can do to a one-dimension squad like the Saints? I’m thinking whichever team has the ball last wins. And since they’re at home, I’m gonna figure that’s the Saints. New Orleans, 62-56.

Baltimore (+6.5) at Indianapolis
No I don’t believe that Ravens can do to the Colts this weekend what they did to the Patriots in the wild card round. Because, let’s face it, New England not only limped into the playoffs but played uncharacteristically poorly. So, sure, the Ravens could end up facing a team having a shockingly bad outing two weeks running (particularly given that the Colts have to be rusty, having taken the last two weeks of the regular season off), but it’s hard to imagine any team having that kind of luck in the post-season. That said, I don’t find the idea of the Ravens pulling off an upset here entirely inconceivable. As noted, it’s been a while since the Colts were involved in a game that meant anything, while the Ravens come into this one fully fired up and working with a good bit of momentum. And, you know, it’s not exactly as if the Colts ate the Ravens back in week 11. In fact, were it not for one very bad decision by Joe Flacco. the Ravens would have taken at least a one-point lead into the final seconds of that game. If the Ravens can take Flacco (and his hip injury, which is clearly worse than anyone in Baltimore is letting on) out of that equation, and keep Peyton Manning of the field at the same time, but focusing on their powerful running attack, they’ll have a chance to win this game. I don’t think it’ll be enough, ultimately. The Colts offense just doesn’t need that much time to score points. And if the Ravens get behind and have to rely on the pass, they’re cooked. I expect to see the Colts pull off a win late. I’ll take Indy straight up, but I’ll look for Baltimore to keep the margin to somewhere between two and four points yet again.

Dallas (+3) at Minnesota
We all know Dallas is winning this game, right? I mean, as insufferable as we may find Cowboys fans (and, trust me, you haven’t seen them at their most annoying in some several years, but I think you’re about to). Or as much as some folks might like to see Old Man Favre get one more shot at a championship before he spends the next six months contemplating riding off into the sunset only to decide he’s got another season left in him after all. It’s just happening that way. This game is gonna be lost by a quarterback. And my money says it’s the one who’s most convinced it’s up to him to win it. I don’t think Tony Romo‘s that guy anymore. Or at least I don’t think he’s that guy this weekend. Next weekend? Well, we’ll just have to wait and see. Dallas by 11 (the four they’re ahead with a minute to play plus the seven that come from the pick-six Brett throws out of desperation on third and six from the Minnesota 46 with 30 second remaining).

NY Jets (+7) at San Diego
Have you heard? The Jets are going to the Super Bowl? That’s right. They beat the Bengals, a team that peaked way too early, two weeks in a row. So that’s how you know they’re the best team in the AFC. Except for the other three that are still in the playoffs. Unfortunately for New Jersey. The Chargers, who are actually going to the Super Bowl, win this one by 10, anyhow, probably more.

I’m gonna be wrong on at least one and possibly all four of these games. Straight up, I mean. (Against How do I know? Because at least one and sometimes three road teams usually win on wild card weekend. I’m picking one. And for all I know, I’m destined to be wrong about that one, which would set me up to finish somewhere between 3-1 and 0-4. So, yeah, my expectations are high. Here’s what not to expect.

NY Jets (+2.5) at Cincinnati
Having backed into the playoffs, the Jets travel to Cincinnati for what looks on paper like a week seventeen rematch, but in reality is the first honest-to-Vince football game New Jersey will have played since week fifteen, when they lost at home to Atlanta. So what happens when the Jets face the real Bengals? Well, it’s a safe bet that neither team’s gonna have a ton of success running the ball in a game featuring two of the league’s better run Ds. That means someone’s gonna have to achieve some kind of yardage through the air. That’s not an easy task against these Ds either, but I’ll take my chances with Carson Palmer before I put my faith in Mark Sanchez, particularly given that Sanchez threw 20 picks this season to Palmer’s 13. I’m looking for a close Bengals win in a low-scoring game. Let’s go with Cincinnati, 13-9.

Philadelphia (+4) at Dallas
After last weekend’s fiasco, I’m officially off the Eagles bandwagon. Which is how you know Philly’s winning this one. (Or, anyway, it’s how I know. Because whenever I believe in the Eagles, they suck and whenever I lose faith in them, they turn unstoppable again.) It’s not that I don’t think the Eagles can win this game. Of course they can. Get into the damned backfield and pressure the league’s most overrated quarterback and you’ve got a chance to win, no matter how hot the Cowboys may have been over the last month of the regular season. The trouble is, I’ve seen no evidence of late that the Eagles pass rush can pressure anyone. That killed them last week. And while I expect this game to be closer (because Donovan McNabb is not gonna have that bad an outing two weeks in a row), I think it ultimately kills them again. Dallas wins this one by three.

Baltimore (+2.5) at New England
Does New England’s fate in this game really depend on Julian Edelman? Somehow I don’t think so. I mean, we’re almost certain to learn a few things about Edelman here. And if the Ravens’ defensive game plan is to roll coverage to Randy Moss all afternoon, Edelman’s at least gonna have a chance to have an impact. And there’s next to no reason to think he can’t rise to the occasion. Look, the kid caught eight balls for 98 yards in his first-ever NFL start (and his first start anywhere as a receiver) back in week two. Last weekend, coming in after Wes Welker went down, he logged 10 catches for 103 yards. And in between he had a chance to actually adapt to the position and study behind Welker. So it’s not unreasonable to think Edelman can be a factor for the Patriots, not only in this game, but going forward (if the Pats get a chance to go forward) in the playoffs and again in the 2010 regular season. But we all know that the guy who ultimately has to be the real factor right now is the same guy who’s been in that role since 2001. The Pats have got their running game into shape over the last month. And their defense is better than advertised. So if Brady can do his thing and spread the ball around to all of his receivers, his tight ends, and Kevin Faulk, the Patriots should be able to hold off the uneven Ravens and win a trip to, ulp, San Diego. New England, 23-16.

Green Bay (+1) at Arizona
Last weekend, when Arizona had something to play for and Green Bay didn’t, the results looked like this. I don’t see any reason to expect things to go too terribly differently when both teams have something on the line. Green Bay wins this one by no less than 10.

The smart money this weekend stays in your pocket. I mean, that’s pretty much the case always, but it’s particularly true in a week of football that involves so many unknowables. Which teams are gonna play to win? Which opponents will be able to take advantage of the post-season-bound squads that don’t show up? What happens when you play at four and your last chance to make the playoffs is erased in a one o’clock game somewhere else? And even when you get to games like Philadelphia-Dallas, all you can say with confidence is that it’s gonna be a slugfest; there’s no saying for sure who’s gonna be left standing at the bell. So, you know, if you have to bet, take a look at a game like that and stick with the over-under. Otherwise, hold on to your dough for next weekend, when things get truly interesting again. Here’s what not to expect.

San Francisco (-7) at St. Louis
Ah, yes, it’s the who cares bowl. San Francisco by a touchdown.

Indianapolis (+7) at Buffalo
You know what you are if you pay money to sit in the 20-degree chill to watch the Bills scrimmage with Indy’s backups? OK, I was gonna go with “diehard,” but, yeah, sure, that too. If the Jets could “beat” the Colts by two touchdowns in a game in which the Indy starters at least thought they were playing for something meaningful while they were on the field, I’ve gotta think the Bills can win by 10 at home with nothing whatsoever on the line.

Chicago (-3) at Detroit
The thing about noting that if the Bears team that beat the Vikings on Monday night shows up, they should be able to handle the Lions with relative ease is that it brings up the point that if the Bears team from Monday night had shown up consistently through the season, they’d probably be resting starters in preparation for the playoffs this week. Still, Chicago wins by six for the second straight week (this time finishing in regulation).

NY Giants (+8.5) at Minnesota
The Vikings are playing not just for the two seed but for the chance to get back on track with the playoffs looming. The Giants, who got a humiliating early start to their off-season last weekend, should make it pretty easy. Minnesota by 10.

Jacksonville (+2.5) at Cleveland
This would be an easy game to pick if the Browns defense had the slightest ability to stop the run or the Browns offense the slightest ability to hold on to the damned ball. Jacksonville is playing its second consecutive road game. And one would imagine the Jags spirits are broken after the crushing defeat in Foxborough that ended their playoff hopes. The Browns, meanwhile, are riding a three-game winning streak. This game probably means something to Cleveland whereas it can’t possibly mean a damned thing to Jacksonville. So, yeah, if the Browns didn’t stink outright, I’d take them without reservation. I’m still taking them, to win and cover, but I’m doing it with serious reservations. Just so I’m on the record with that.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami
OK LaMarr. If that’s what you need to think, that’s fine. Me, I have a hard time believing anyone in the NFL is afraid of the big, bad squad that in recent memory has found ways to lose to such juggernauts as Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland. But that’s just me. I’m sure, though, that the Steelers will manage to end their season on a bit of an up note with a win over the foundering Dolphins. So that’ll be a nice thing for LaMarr and his teammates to reflect on as the off-season begins. Pittsburgh wins and covers.

New Orleans (+7) at Carolina
Conventional wisdom says the Saints, with nothing to play for, will rest starters and take a loss. I’m not so sure. I think if I were Sean Payton I’d have serious misgivings about taking my formerly red hot team into the post-season on a three-game losing streak. Especially when beating the Panthers could only require me to get three quarters out of my starting offense (and, let’s be honest, the starting D could use a full game to tune up). I think Payton, who can rest his whole damned team next weekend, plays to win. And I think it pays off. New Orleans by three.

New England (+7.5) at Houston
The mere fact that Bill Belichick won’t say he’s not planning to rest starters makes me feel pretty certain he’s planning to rest starters. I’m sure we’ll see everyone who’s healthy enough to play spend some time on the field, but I’d be shocked to see guys who are dealing with ongoing injuries put in a full game. So I’ll take the Texans, who’ll be trying to keep their playoff hopes alive, to win it straight up, though I’ll hedge a bit by looking for the Pats to keep it closer than seven and half.

Atlanta (-1.5) at Tampa Bay
Yes, I know the Bucs beat the Saints, but is anyone outside of Tampa looking at that as anything other than a colossal fluke? I know I’m not. Falcons by a touchdown.

Philadelphia (+3) at Dallas
You know what? Go ahead and set aside the crazy variety of seeding possibilities because all that really matters is that this is the NFC East title game. That’s it. These two teams are going to beat the living bejesus out of each other not for a week off or a home game, but because they’re division rivals and the team that wins is the cock of the walk (puts its pants on just like all the other football teams: one leg at a time; except once its pants are on it wins division titles). So then the question is, do you like the suddenly hot home team or the increasingly impressive division-leading visitor? I’m not sure what the right answer is. But I do know these two things: The Eagles are better than the Cowboys in virtually every aspect of the game; and I’ve been calling Philly the most dangerous team in the NFC for a few weeks and it’s probably in my best interest (in the absence of significant indications to the contrary) that I put my money where my mouth has been. So I’ll take the Eagles to win this thing outright.

Washington (+3.5) at San Diego
I’m actually fairly confident that San Diego’s backups can beat Washington’s starters. How sad is that? Chargers by three.

Green Bay (+3) at Arizona
Look, I don’t think, I know that the Packers are the better team in this match. And if these two teams end up meeting in the same stadium a week from now, or two weeks from now, I will take the Packers with confidence. Here, though, in this game, what I see is an Arizona team playing at home with a shot at the two seed if it wins and a good chance of landing at four if it loses and a Green Bay team that’s gonna be the five or six seed no matter what happens and that has a lot of reasons to hold back on showing the Cards everything it’s got. I like Arizona in that scenario. By a point.

Kansas City (+13) at Denver
The Broncos need help to make the post-season, and I’m not sure they’re gonna get it. But I’m fairly confident they’ll at least do their part this time out. Denver by 10.

Baltimore (-10) at Oakland
The Ravens’ situation is simple: Win and they’re in the playoffs (as the five or six seed, depending on what happens with the Jets and Bengals Sunday night); lose and their season ends. That should be more than enough motivation to get them by the horrendous Raiders. Baltimore by 13.

Tennessee (-4) at Seattle
In the end, the 2009 Titans were mostly about wasted potential. They’ll set the stage for high expectations in 2010 with a big win in the season finale. Tennessee by 14.

Cincinnati (+10) at NY Jets
Marvin Lewis says his team is gonna go all-out to win this largely meaningless game. I’ll believe it when I see it. Like the oddsmakers, I’m looking for the Bengals to give the Jets a free pass to the post-season. New Jersey closes Giants Stadium with a 10-point victory. (And the idiot Jets fans start talking Super Bowl again. Hooray!)

I’m sort of pressed for time this week, so in the tradition of my surprisingly well received “what I’m thankful for” post last month, here’s a look at my holiday wishes for teams and fans around the NFL.

San Diego (+3) at Tennessee
I wish the Titans a productive off-season. As for the Chargers, let’s go with a post-season rematch with the Patriots, with all the success they’ve had in those games in seasons past. San Diego by three.

Tampa Bay (+14) at New Orleans
My wish for the Saints is that they enjoy clinching the NFC one-seed. God knows they’ve earned it. I have no wishes for the Buccaneers themselves, but I do wish for their fans that the team will realize you can’t win in a league of parity when you spend 75 percent of what ever other franchise does on player salaries. Saints by 23.

Kansas City (+14) at Cincinnati
I wish the Bengals a happy AFC North title and the Chiefs a smoother ride in 2010. Cincinnati by 20.

Buffalo (+9.5) at Atlanta
I wish the Bills’ defense good luck finally slowing down an opponents’ running game and the Falcons’ offense a ton of fun exploiting the Bills failure to pull it off. Atlanta by nine.

Houston (+3) at Miami
I wish the Dolphins at their fans one last week of hoping to steal the final AFC playoff spot. I wish the Texans a successful search for their next head coach. (Oddly enough, I think the Texans are probably the better team in this matchup, but they’re not winning.) Dolphins by a point.

Seattle (+14) at Green Bay
My wish for Green Bay is that the Vikings slip to the three seed, giving the Packers the opportunity to be the team that eliminates Minnesota from the playoffs. My only wish for Seattle remains that I might stop having to give them so much as a second’s thought. I guess that’s just a bit more than a week away. Packers by 10.

Carolina (+7) at NY Giants
I wish the Giants the best of luck in trying to thread the needle and qualify for the post-season (it’s not happening). And I wish the Panthers and their next head coach good luck with the whole trying to get out from under Jake Delhomme’s ridiculous contract thing (it ain’t gonna be easy).

Oakland (+3) at Cleveland
I wish both teams an off-season filled with false hope and a 2010 season loaded with constant portents of near-mediocrity. Huzzah! I’ll take the home team and give the points. Because I can’t figure out which squad, if either, is gonna show up, so why not?

Jacksonville (+7.5) at New England
I wish the Patriots a grand old time taking advantage of the Jaguars’ pitiful pass defense and a muted celebration of their return to playoffs as AFC East champs. For the Jags, I wish a peaceful season finale in Cleveland. New England by 13.

Baltimore (+2.5) at Pittsburgh
I wish the Baltimore Ravens all the joy I know they’ll derive from eliminating the Steelers at Heinz Field (and from taking a big step toward locking up a wild card berth). And I wish Pittsburgh fans all the joy of watching their team charge headlong toward an 8-8 finish. Schadenfreude makes a great stocking stuffer. Ravens by six.

St. Louis (+14) at Arizona
For the Cardinals, I wish a lovely last opportunity to pick on the NFC’s bottom dwellers. It’s only gonna get tougher from here. My wish for the Rams is a successful contract negotiation with Jimmy Clausen. Arizona by 17.

Detroit (+12) at San Francisco
My wish for both of these teams’ fans is the same: That some day their squads will figure out how to play NFL football. (Niners fans have a prayer of that wish coming true.) San Francisco by 10.

Denver (+7) at Philadelphia
My wish for football fans everywhere is that the Eagles manage to snag the NFC three seed. Because that would set up a very high likelihood of a Philly-New Orleans conference championship, which I think would be a fantastic football game. My wish for the Denver Broncos is that their failure to get it done when they should have doesn’t bit them in the collective ass. (Though I have to say that last one’s a bullshit wish, since I really don’t care if Denver makes the post-season.) Eagles by 10.

NY Jets (+5.5) at Indianapolis
I wish the Colts starters a happy second half off, and the Jets’ fans a fantastic celebration of the big win. (Hey, it’s Christmas, and this is the last happy moment these folks are likely to have until their team wins the fourth game of the 2010 pre-season and the New York media declares them a sure thing for Super Bowl XLV.) Jets by three.

Dallas (-6.5) at Washington
I wish Cowboys fans the wisdom not to get too prideful about their team winning two straight games in December. Because January’s coming. And two straight losses with it. I wish the Native Americans happy housecleaning. Dallas by four.

Minnesota (-7) at Chicago
For Minnesota fans, I wish a relatively painless visit to the land of Brett Favre’s giant ego. For Chicago fans? Well, it could be worse. You could have traded the franchise for Favre. I wish you the peace of knowing that. Minnesota by four.