This Football Blog

Awful lot of road teams giving points this week. That’s all I’m gonna say. I mean, that and here’s what not to expect.

Detroit (+2.5) at Dallas
The Lions have forced eight turnovers through three games. The Cowboys have surrendered seven. I’ll believe those trends are reversible when I see them reversed. Detroit by four.

New Orleans (-7) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars are one of two teams in the NFL (along with the Kansas City Chiefs) that have put up fewer than 10 points a game so far this season. The Saints score nearly 35. Why don’t you tell me what that implies. New Orleans by 14.

Tennessee (pick ’em) at Cleveland
One of these painfully uneven teams is gonna emerge from this game with a 3-1 record, something that will seem funny by the time the season ends. And since the Browns’ chief defensive vulnerability is to the run and the Titans have yet to figure out how to move the ball on the ground, I’m going to look for win from the home team. Let’s say Browns by two.

Buffalo (-3) at Cincinnati
For the first time in three weeks, the Bills won’t have to rally from three scores down to win a game. How do I know? Because the Bengals aren’t capable of putting up three scores in a single football game. Buffalo by nine.

Washington (-3) at St. Louis
Got Tim Hightower on your fantasy team? Start him. Hightower may gain as many yards today as he put up in weeks one to three combined. Native Americans by a touchdown.

San Francisco (+9.5) at Philadelphia
The outcome of this game will have a lot more to do with the health of Frank Gore than the health of Michael Vick. If Gore were fully healthy, the Niners might actually have a chance. They could try to exploit the pitiful Eagles run defense, control time of possession and maybe steal win. But he isn’t. So they can’t. And they won’t. Philadelphia by 10.

Minnesota (-3) at Kansas City
The Chiefs can’t score points, can’t stop the run, can’t keep opponents out of the end zone, and can’t hold on to the ball. That’s a really, really bad combination. Vikings by two touchdowns.

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Houston
Yeah, I know, the Texans totally fell apart in the fourth quarter last weekend at New Orleans. You know what else I know? Ben Roethlisberger isn’t Drew Brees. Not even when he has a solid offensive line protecting him, which he doesn’t. Roethlisberger turns the ball over three more times and the Texans come out on top by a touchdown.

Carolina (+6.5) at Chicago
The Bears’ complete inability to protect Jay Cutler might not be such a huge issue this week. You know, what with the Panthers not having a pass rush and all. I’ll take the uneven home team over the uneven road team, though I wouldn’t give six and a half either way. Let’s call it Chicago by four.

Atlanta (-5) at  Seattle
The Falcons are playing their second straight road game. They’re coming off a tough loss at Tampa. And they’re traveling cross country. That’s what the Seahawks have in their favor. What the Falcons have in their favor is that the Seahawks stink in virtually every aspect of the game. Atlanta by a field goal.

NY Giants (-1) at  Arizona
I still don’t think the Giants are healthy or deep enough to have a ton of success this season, but I have to give them credit: They keep finding ways to win. The Cardinals, on the other hand, keep finding ways to lose. I see no reason to expect either of those trends to be reversed in this game. New Jersey by six.

Denver (+12.5) at  Green Bay
This one’s not too terribly hard to size up. One of the best teams in the NFL is hosting one of the worst. That’s what you need to know. Green Bay by 20.

New England (-6) at  Oakland
The Patriots just don’t have back-to-back bad games. Right? I mean, they don’t. And they probably won’t. But that doesn’t mean New England’s guaranteed a win here. The Pats are playing their second straight road game. They’re traveling to the West Coast to do it. And their defense, which hasn’t exactly been shutting opponents down (worst D in the league by some important measures) is going, once again, to be missing some key players (I’m more concerned about the lack of healthy cornerbacks than about Albert Haynesworth). All that said, the Raiders don’t bring much to the table by way of a defensive secondary. Oakland’s very good pass rush notwithstanding, it seems fair to expect a shootout here. And in a shootout, I’ve got to go with Tom Brady over Jason Campbell. Can you blame me? Patriots, 35-34.

Miami (+7) at  San Diego
The Dolphins have a bye in week five. Do you know what that makes this? If you went with Tony Sparano‘s final game as Miami’s head coach, you are correct. Chargers by an unlucky, for Sparano, 13.

NY Jets (+4) at  Baltimore
The Frat Boys probably should lose this game. They’re playing on the road for a second straight week. They’re coming off a tough loss in Oakland. They really haven’t been playing very well. And, you know, Joe Namath may actually be right about something for the first time in roughly 42 years. Plus, statistically speaking, the Ravens are just the better team here. Baltimore ought to win. I ought to pick Baltimore to win. Probably by six or seven. But I’ve got this weird hunch that New Jersey is gonna find a way this week. And for whatever reason, I’m going with it. Frat Boys by a field goal. In overtime.

Indianapolis (+10) at  Tampa Bay
Dunno if you’ve heard this, but Peyton Manning is still hurt. Buccaneers by fourteen. Game over by halftime.

Another NFL week, another opportunity for me to lead you in entirely the wrong direction. Here’s what not to expect.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Carolina
Blaine Gabbert will get the credit (and maybe he’ll deserve some of it), but the likely reality for what I expect to be Jacksonville’s offensive emergence, after scoring 19 points over the first two games of the season, is that Carolina’s D can’t keep opponents out of the end zone and can’t take the ball away. Defensive ineptitude has been the main reason for the Panthers’ 0-2 start, and it’s likely to continue to cause Carolina problems throughout the season. It won’t stop the Panthers from winning a handful of games, however, because there will be those matches where Cam Newton and the offense are productive enough to compensate for the D. I expect this matchup with a travel-weary Jaguars squad to be one of those. Jags put up a fight, but the Panthers win it by a field goal.

Detroit (-3.5) at Minnesota
OK, you know what? I like the Lions. I believe in the Lions. Although I don’t think the Lions are quite ready to wrest the NFC North away from the Packers, I suspect they’ll earn a wild card berth in the playoffs. But I don’t really believe the Lions have proven a single damned thing with their 2-0 start. I’m just not ready to find Detroit’s wins over Tampa Bay and Kansas City impressive. On the other hand, I think the Vikings have proven quite a bit with their 0-2 start, not one bit of it good. The Vikings aren’t breaking the Lions’ win streak. Not this week anyhow. Detroit by a touchdown.

San Francisco (+2.5) at Cincinnati
Here’s a weird stat (I mean, I know it’s only week two, but let me have this one, will ya?): The Bengals are the only team in the NFL that has yet to commit a turnover this season. So that’s something, right? Probably not, but I’m gonna ride with it, mostly because the alternative is looking closely at this matchup, and that’s just not something I want to do at all. Cincy by a point.

Miami (+2.5) at Cleveland
An 0-2 start in the NFL is tough enough to overcome, but an 0-2 start when you’ve yet to play a road game? That’s absolutely killer. Miami’s season would be effectively over at this point even if the Dolphins weren’t in the AFC East. But they are. That doesn’t mean they’re necessarily in the race for Andrew Luck, though. I expect the Fins will still find a way to win seven or eight games. This one, in which they face a Browns squad that can’t get much done even when Peyton Hillis isn’t suffering with strep throat (and passing it around the locker room), should be one of those. Dolphins by six.

New England (-7) at Buffalo
Look, I’m as impressed as anyone with Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think you have to count him as the second best quarterback in the AFC East (which ain’t so bad considering that the first best might be the greatest ever to play the game). And Buffalo’s 2-0 start makes me happy for the Bills, and happier still for their long-suffering fans. But let’s be honest here, OK? One gets the distinct feeling that a lot of teams are going to beat up on the Kansas City Chiefs this season. And although the second-half comeback and last-second win over Oakland last week were very impressive, they don’t change the fact that the Bills defense got carved up by Jason Campbell to the tune of 323 yards and two TDs. That doesn’t bode well for a team that’s about to face a quarterback who’s on track to shatter the NFL single-season passing record and an offense that’s poised to challenge its own single-season scoring record. It doesn’t bode well at all. The Patriots won by two touchdowns in each of their first two games this season. I’ll look for them to continue that streak. New England, 34-20.

NY Giants (+8.5) at Philadelphia
It looks like Michael Vick‘s gonna start for the Eagles. I’m not sure it matters. With the shape the Giants are in, the Eagles could go with Ron Jaworski under center and come out of this one with a decisive victory. Philadelphia by 10.

Denver (+6.5) at Tennessee
It’s a near certainty that one of these godawful teams is going to win this game. Yippee! Let’s have a party! I’m gonna go with the Titans both because they’re at home and because their offense doesn’t fumble the ball away ever other time they take the field. But you know what? Who cares? Tennessee by a touchdown.

Houston (+4) at New Orleans
Three weeks into the season, the Houston defense finally gets a real test. We’ll see if they’re up to it. We’ll also see if the Texans can overcome the negatives of a second consecutive week on the road. I’m guessing they’re not and they can’t. Saints by nine.

NY Jets (-3) at Oakland
Though they come in at 2-0, the Frat Boys really need a win here. This starts a three-game road trip for New Jersey, which spent the first two weeks of the season in East Rutherford. Next week, they’re in Baltimore. Two weeks from now, they travel to New England. Neither of those games will be easy. This one can be, but not if Mark Sanchez throws a bunch of picks. I suspect Sanchez will figure it out and the Frat Boys will manage a win, but I sure do hope I’m wrong. New Jersey by four.

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis
I’m not sure what shocked me most, that Baltimore destroyed Pittsburgh in week one or that the same team looked pitiful in Tennessee in week two. I’m not sure either showing is indicative of who the Ravens really are, but I’m willing to guess that the first result is closer to reality than the second. Plus, the Rams can’t stop anything on defense, can’t score on offense. You may not know this, but that’s considered a bad combination in football — or, really, in pretty much all ball sports. So I’m looking for a Ravens win. It’s their second straight road game, so let’s figure they only come out on top by a touchdown.

Kansas City (+14.5) at San Diego
Honestly, what do you think I can tell you about this game that the spread hasn’t? Exactly. Chargers by 17.

Atlanta (+3.5) at Tampa Bay
The Falcons are tied with the Colts and the Dolphins for the second most points allowed over weeks one and two. The Colts and Dolphins (like the Chiefs who have surrendered by far the most points in the league) are 0-2 teams. The Falcons are a Michael Vick concussion away from being in the same boat. And still I expect them to win this game. Why? Partly because I think the Falcons are better than their defensive play so far this year. And partly because until I see evidence to the contrary, I have to believe that the Buccaneers have no ability to stop the run. Atlanta by four.

Arizona (-3.5) at Seattle
I’m not impressed with either of these teams. And the fact that the Cardinals are playing on the road for a second straight week, and coming off a tough loss in Washington, makes me very hesitant to take Arizona. But I simply can’t take Seattle. Just. Simply. Can’t. Cardinals by a field goal.

Green Bay (-4) at Chicago
Eleven. That’s how many sacks Jay Cutler has taken this season. In two games. And, no, it’s not like they all came in one match. Cutler went down five times in the Bears’ week one win over Atlanta, and half a dozen times in last week’s loss to the Saints. That’s a result of weak offensive line play. And that’s gonna spell doom for Cutler and the Bears this season. The Packers’ D, meanwhile, has logged seven sacks so far this season. That’s an impressive number. I can say that, because I’m not Jay Cutler. Of course, come late Sunday, Cutler may well wish he were me. I suspect this one’s gonna be way uglier than the spread implies. Packers by 13.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Indianapolis
This must have looked like ratings gold when it was slotted in. The best laid plans and all that. Steelers by a million (or, you know, something short of that but way more than ten and a half).

Washington (+5) at Dallas
Well, Tony Romo is all kinds of tough. You can’t take that away from him. Tough isn’t the same as good, of course. But, uh, I’m not sure that matters in this, the weekend’s second dog of a prime time matchup. The Native Americans aren’t coming out of Dallas with a win no matter who starts at quarterback for the Cowboys. Dallas by three.

The reality is, I don’t really know anything this week that I didn’t know last. And that was pretty much nothing. So, you know, here’s what you really, really, really shouldn’t expect.

Oakland (+4) at Buffalo
Tommy Kelly is right: The Raiders clearly are not the Chiefs. For one thing, the Raiders aren’t as banged up as the Chiefs. For another, the Raiders have the personnel on defense to bring considerably more pressure than the Chiefs did last week. That’s meaningful, I suppose. Thing is, all it ultimately means is that one can safely assume that the Bills won’t be running away with a 41-7 victory over another AFC West team. And I think we could have made that assumption without Tommy Kelly’s help. The problem for the Raiders is that, unlike the Chiefs, they’re not at home. They’re doing the 1 p.m. East Coast game thing that’s typically deadly to West Coast teams. They’re also playing on the shortest possible week — diving into an early Sunday game following a late Monday nighter. Also, it’s worth noting that while the Bills probably aren’t a Super Bowl contender, they’re also not at the same place as the newly rebuilding Denver Broncos. I’ll take the Raiders to cover, but the Bills straight up. Buffalo by a field goal.

Green Bay (-10) at Carolina
Cam Newton had a hell of an NFL debut, didn’t he? Now let’s see what he (and, you know, the rest of the Panthers) can do against the defending champs, a team with one of the best defenses in the league and that’s playing on 10 days rest. I don’t expect the results to be quite so impressive. I have a hard time picking road teams to win by double digits, so I’ll go with Green Bay by nine.

Kansas City (+8) at Detroit
The results probably can’t get any uglier for the Chiefs, but the outlook for 2011 sure doesn’t appear to be getting prettier. And now Kansas City has to travel to Detroit to face the Lions’ crushing defensive front. I don’t think I can bear to look. Lions by 14.

Cleveland (-2) at Indianapolis
Getting two points at home. From the Browns, a team that took it on the chin from the Bengals in their own building a week ago. That’s how bad things are looking for the Manningless Colts. You’ve gotta wonder if there’s any way things could get more depressing in Indy. Oh, I know. What if the Colts actually lose by a touchdown? That should do it.

Tampa Bay (+2) at Minnesota
OK, so the Vikings started strong against the Chargers last week. They still managed to lose. More important, their new quarterback looked downright awful. And while the Bucs dropped their home opener to the Lions, their young quarterback held up well against an outstanding pass rush. So, I don’t know. I kinda like the visitors here. Tampa Bay by three.

Chicago (+6.5) at New Orleans
I won’t argue that beating the Falcons in Chicago wasn’t impressive. It was. But I’ll believe the Bears can take that show on the road against a team as good as the Saints (who, by the way, are playing on 10 days rest) when I see it. Saints by a touchdown.

Jacksonville (+9) at NY Jets
The Jaguars aren’t quarterbacked by Tony “Meltdown” Romo. So they’ve got that going for them, which is relatively meaningless. Frat Boys by 12.

Seattle (+14) at Pittsburgh
You’ve gotta kinda feel bad for the Seahawks. It’s their second straight week playing on the road and they have to go in to Pittsburgh and face an angry, angry Steelers squad. I expect to see bloodshed. Pittsburgh by 20.

Baltimore (-6) at Tennessee
I don’t care that the Titans are at home, I’m not sure six is half enough. The Ravens aren’t the Jaguars. And the Titans sure as hell aren’t the Steelers (by which I mean they’re not as good as the team the Ravens destroyed last weekend). Baltimore by 14.

Arizona (+3.5) at Washington
I’m not sure last weekend’s result revealed much about either of these teams. The rebuilding Native Americans took advantage of the injury-depleted Giants. And the Cardinals barely held off the rebuilding Panthers. I guess all I can take away from either result is that I continue to view the Arizona defense as highly suspect. So with that in mind, I’ll take the home team here straight up, though I’ll look for the Cardinals to keep the margin to something like a point or two.

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco
OK, Jerry, so if that disaster in New Jersey Sunday night was “one of the best games” you’ve ever seen Tony Romo play, why on earth is the guy continuing to start for your team? Seems like a reasonable question to me. I’m fairly certain the Cowboys will be able to overcome their own lousy quarterback play and beat the all-new 49ers, but I wouldn’t put money on it. Dallas by a field goal.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Denver
Ooh, look. It’s a giant circus of awfulness. The Bengals are playing on the road for a second straight week. The Broncos are playing on short rest. I expect the result to be some incredibly sloppy football. I’ll take the home team, and assume they can beat the Bengals by at least four. But it’s all gonna come down to which direction the fumbles bounce in and the reality is that there’s just no way to account for that in advance.

Houston (-3) at Miami
The final score may have been unappealing edging toward ugly, but I actually thought the Dolphins showed some very positive signs on Monday night. And I don’t think the Texans’ blowout victory over the Colts revealed anything in particular about Houston. I’m going to cautiously take the home team in this one, even though it worries me more than a bit that they’re playing on short rest and may have trouble shaking off their discouraging start. Dolphins by a point.

San Diego (+7) at New England
In the wake of Monday night’s record-setting performance by the Patriots offense, the big question going around was, are the Pats that good or are the Dolphins that bad? I rather think the answer is neither. I mean, look, Tom Brady and company overcame what one still has to suspect is a very good defensive unit (particularly in the secondary) to log all those yards and put up all those points. That’s something. But the New England defense still appears to be missing a solid pass rush. It’s possible that one will emerge as the season goes on and the reinvented unit truly comes together, but the inability to get to the quarterback remains a problem until proven otherwise. That said, I didn’t see anything in San Diego’s narrow win over a tired-looking Minnesota squad on Sunday that made me think the Chargers the force to be reckoned with that they’re perennially considered heading into NFL seasons. And I’ll say this: Donovan McNabb managed to accomplish nothing against San Diego last week and his team still had a chance to pull off an upset on the road. If that’s the level at which the Chargers are playing, how are they likely to fare against Brady’s team? Not well, right? I’m not giving a touchdown, because San Diego always finds a way to play New England tough. But I do like the Patriots to come out on top. Let’s say by four.

Philadelphia (-2.5) at Atlanta
The Falcons absolutely have to win this game. Seriously. In week two. I mean, it’s not like they can’t recover from an 0-2 start, but on 0-2 start including a loss that could cost them home field in a bigger game come January would be more than at bit problematic. I think the Eagles are the better squad here, but I’m gonna take the home team with its back against the wall over the squad playing its second straight road game. Falcons by three.

St. Louis (+6.5) at NY Giants
And the annual parade of games that no one cares about and no one would watch if they weren’t on Monday night begins. Hooray! New Jersey by a touchdown.

If you’ve been here before, you know this is the part where I warn you not to put too much stock in my picks. That’s always extra true in week one, because, look, I don’t know what’s really up with any of these teams. No one does. We know what we think we’ve seen in the pre-season. We know where teams were at the end of last season and what they did (or didn’t do) to improve in the off-season (such as it was). But no one knows anything for certain until we see how it all plays out on the field. So here are some guesses, which are even guessier than my usual guesses, at what you almost certainly shouldn’t expect to see on Sunday and Monday.

Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Baltimore
As ridiculous as it may be to put an entire season on a single week one game, you kinda get the sense that the Ravens have to win this game if they’re gonna have a chance to win the NFC North title. And the thing of it is, with Lee Evans less than 100 percent and the Ravens O line a bit on the shaky side, it’s hard to know if Baltimore has the tools to get the job done. I’m gonna take the Ravens, but it’s mainly because they’re at home and they have to know how much they need this game. But there’s a reason Baltimore’s only giving a point and a half to the visiting division rivals, and I won’t be shocked if the Steelers are 1-0 and the Ravens 0-1 come Sunday evening. Baltimore by a point.

Atlanta (-2.5) at Chicago
I’m not entirely sure I understand why the Falcons are only giving two and a half here. I mean, I know the Bears D should be able to slow down the Falcons offense some, but the Chicago offense still features Jay Cutler playing behind a questionable line. And there’s only so much time any D can spend on the field before it starts to wear down. Atlanta by a touchdown.

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Cleveland
I may not be sold on the Browns, but I’m certain of this much: The Bengals stink. Cleveland by 14.

Indianapolis (+8.5) at Houston
Yeah, Kerry Collins should be able to step right in and run an offense that was built for Peyton Manning. That’s a realistic expectation. Texans by 10.

Tennessee (+2) at Jacksonville
There are high school games being played this weekend in which the schemes will look sophisticated compared to what these two squads are capable of bringing to the field at this point. Jaguars by four.

Buffalo (+5.5) at Kansas City
The Chiefs didn’t do enough to improve in the off-season. The Bills have too far to go for this lockout-shortened off-season to have made a significant difference. I think Buffalo’s losses on offense offset their gains on D. And I expect it to start to show immediately. Kansas City by a touchdown.

Philadelphia (-4) at St. Louis
I’m inclined to agree with the folks who say its going to take the reinvented Eagles some time to start functioning as a team and playing up to their talent level. Then again, I’m not sure the Rams are quite ready either. Josh McDaniels is a talented play caller, but you won’t see the evidence of that this early in the season. And the St. Louis defense may appear to be heading in the right direction, but I don’t think it was going to get there in 2011 with or without the lockout. Look for the Eagles to win this one handily (though I don’t expect a blowout) and the folks in Philly to point to the win as evidence that the Eagles are coming into the season fully formed and ready to take the league by storm. (Next Sunday night’s stop in Atlanta ought to be enough to correct that perception.) Philadelphia by six.

Detroit (+1.5) at Tampa Bay
As I mentioned earlier this week, I continue to have my doubts about Tampa Bay, particularly on defense. I am, however, sold on the Detroit D. I think the Lions will give the Bucs’ offense fits and the Detroit O will be able to accomplish enough against a questionable Tampa Bay D to come away with a close win. Lions by four.

Carolina (+6.5) at Arizona
The Panthers have a long, long way to go — and they’ve had no time this short off-season to make any real progress in getting there. Cardinals by nine.

Minnesota (+8.5) at San Diego
I like Donovan McNabb. Always have. And I hope he succeeds wildly in Minnesota. But it’s not gonna happen at this point in the season, behind an offensive line with more than it’s fair share of issues, against the Chargers’ defense. San Diego by 12.

Seattle (+5.5) at San Francisco
This game could be an early indicator of which team is gonna finish last in what might be the NFL’s weakest division. So that’s some excitement there, football fans. I suspect those forced to watch this tilt will end up wishing the lockout hadn’t ended. San Francisco by a field goal.

NY Giants (-3) at Washington
The Giants may (or may not) be falling apart, but the Native Americans are in pieces. New Jersey by a touchdown.

Dallas (+5.5) at NY Jets
Thanks so much, NFL, for forcing me to spend my opening Sunday night energy rooting for one of the league’s most overrated quarterbacks. Not that me cheering from my couch is gonna help Tony Romo or the Cowboys very much. Frat Boys by 13.

New England (-7) at Miami
Seven? Why? Because it’s gonna be hot? Let’s be realistic here, shall we? New England by 17.

Oakland (+3) at Denver
Before you go to bed, take a few minutes to admire all the talent the Oakland Raiders will be wasting this season. Then, you know, go to bed, because that’s about where the interesting aspects of this game end. Raiders by a field goal.

Just tonight’s game for now. I’ll get to my hopelessly uninformed (come on, already, it’s week one) picks for the rest of week one tomorrow or Saturday.

New Orleans (+4) at Green Bay
I’ll say this: I’m bothered by the fact that the Green Bay players apparently didn’t feel like they needed to get together to practice as a group during the lockout. I mean, OK, they’re the champs and all — and the rest probably did them good — but every season is a new season in the NFL. And so here the Packers are opening their season with a game against a serious challenger for the conference title and at a bit of a disadvantage when it comes to preparation. Will that make the difference in this game? Probably not. My guess is that both of these teams are ready to go. Certainly, both come into the game with high-powered offenses. And I suspect both defenses are as ready to go as you can get in a short pre-season (which might not be very ready). So, all things being nearly equal, I’m going with the home team. But I’m not giving four. Green Bay by a point.

I start every football season by pointing out that there’s virtually no way to predict what’ll happen in the NFL in a given week, let alone across the breadth of a 17-week season (and, you know, a seeded playoff system that doesn’t even start for another four months). And then I make my silly little predictions anyway. Why? Because it’s fun for me. (And, you know, I correctly predicted the Super Bowl champion last year. Just a matter of dumb luck, of course, but I still did it.) So there.

So let’s see how wrong I can be this time around, shall we?

Regular Season Records
I’m still not engaging in the absurd exercise of predicting final records. I’ll give you a range of wins I think each team is capable of. Where I’m right, I’ll know my hedge was successful. Where I’m wrong, it’ll be the fault of injury, or the team, or something – just, you know, not me. Because how could it be me?

AFC East

New England Patriots, 12-15
The Patriots probably had no business finishing 14-2 last season, but they did, mostly because of Tom Brady and the offense. That offense may have improved in the off-season (such as it was) or it might have simply been sharpened up a bit. The reinvented defense appears to be much stronger than it was last season – though there are quality concerns at safety. Seems like a winning formula to me.

New York Jets, 7-11
The Jets made some splashy moves in the off-season, but they did it all at skill positions. New Jersey is dangerously thin on both lines. That may not hurt the defense too badly, but it could become a serious problem on offense, particularly for a team with a quarterback who’s prone to making mistakes under pressure. If wear and tear don’t become an issue, the Jets will contend for a wild card spot. If they do, the Jets will get to start planning early for the draft and a rebuilding year.

Miami Dolphins, 4-7
The Dolphins are going to have a few games this season where they look brilliant, offset by quite a few where it’s clear they’re inept. Look for them to go into the 2012 season looking very different, with a new coach and a new quarterback.

Buffalo Bills, 2-5
The Bills made some defensive improvements in the short off-season, but they failed to improve their O line. That’s bad news for Ryan Fitzpatrick – and quite possibly for Andrew Luck, too..

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens, 10-12
The Ravens offense is in flux. Joe Flacco may be coming into his own, but he’s gonna have to prove throwing to a different receiving corps than he’s had in seasons past. Fortunately for Baltimore, Flacco has Ray Rice and an outstanding defense to lean on. If he and the receivers can get more and more comfortable as the season wears on, the Ravens could go into January as the AFC’s hottest team. If not, they’ll be watching the playoffs on TV.

Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-12
Super Bowl hangover? Who knows? I honestly don’t expect to see much of that. The lockout gave everyone’s body a chance to recover, and the Steelers should be able to reap the benefits both of that down time and of the fact that they’re one of a small number of teams who were fairly complete coming out of last season, which means the short pre-season shouldn’t hurt. Pittsburgh remains thin on its offensive line, and sooner or later that’s gonna pose a serious problem. But not this season. T his season, they’ll bully their way into contention. Yet again.

Cleveland Browns, 6-8
In another division (say the AFC West) the much improved Browns might actually be a contender. In the AFC North, well, there’s only so far Colt McCoy can carry a team. The new D needs more time to come together than it got thanks to the lockout. And with bullies like Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the division, it’s going to be hard for a one-sided team to keep up. Next season.

Cincinnati Bengals, 2-5
Another contender to secure the services of Andrew Luck in 2012. Poor, poor Andrew.

AFC South

Houston Texans, 9-12
Oh, god help me, I’m picking the Texans to win the division. Because I’m just exactly as stupid as everyone else, apparently. And, yeah, it was easy to be stupid like that when Houston’s best hope was to come in second to Indianapolis. But then Peyton Manning went and didn’t heal in time for the season to start, so now picking the Texans means picking the Texans. Chances are, it’ll end in tears.

Indianapolis Colts, 4-9
It’s all about whether the reports that Peyton Manning will miss the season are true. If Manning’s out, the Colts have to rely on late off-season pickup Kerry Collins. That’s a difference between a guy who can will your team to victory and a guy who can’t even will the ball out of the hands of opposing DBs most of the time. If Manning can play at some point, it’s a matter of when, at what level, and how deep a hole Collins has dug for him before his return.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-6
Releasing David Garrard frees up some cap space for the Jags, but it doesn’t solve any problems. The Jaguars’ issues are that they have a mediocre offense and a defense that can’t get to the passer. That’s not a good combination. Maybe their next coach will be able to figure that out.

Tennessee Titans, 3-6
I knew the Titans picked the wrong off-season to quit everything. That is: New coach, new (the way a car with 100,000 miles can sometimes be “new” to me) quarterback, new systems. No time. Look for a few wins down the stretch to put a silver lining on an otherwise dismal season..

AFC West

San Diego Chargers, 11-14
The Chargers’ defense looks even scarier than usual heading into this season. Could be one of those Ds that carries a team into late January. Maybe later. Or the offense could get in the way, and a slow start could ensure that the bulk of the playoffs are spent on the road, which always spells doom for San Diego. Either way, the Chargers are winning the AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs, 8-11
I was one of a relatively small group of people who predicted the Chiefs would have a strong 2010 season. This year, I’m one of a larger group of folks who suspect the team may not have done enough to improve in the off-season. They did add some offensive firepower, however, and maybe that’s all they needed. We’ll see..

Denver Broncos, 5-8
John Fox can turn this team around fast. But no one can turn it around fast enough to compete this season. Next year, maybe. And almost certainly by 2013. But not now.

Oakland Raiders, 4-7
As usual, the Raiders added some nice talent in the off-season and lost some significant talent at the same time. The team has weapons, and (probably) a better quarterback than they’ve had in a few years. But it’s still hard to see it all coming together. I think Oakland takes a step back, maybe two.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles, 11-14
The dream team thing only holds up as long as … well, it doesn’t hold up at all. This ain’t basketball. Whatever the Eagles are – let’s just say a team with lots and lots of talent in very visible positions – it only holds up so long as Michael Vick stays healthy. That means the offensive line is gonna have to step it up, but quick. If that happens, and if Vick can avoid taking stupid risks (no evidence yet that he’s capable of that), then the Eagles could be bound for Indianapolis on February 5.

Dallas Cowboys, 7-9
The Cowboys’ defense should win a few games on its own. But, then, Tony Romo, playing behind a crumbling offensive line, should manage to lose a few as well. Which of those things happens most often will determine on which side of .500 the Cowboys finish.

New York Giants, 5-8
Too many injuries, too much turmoil, and a quarterback who thinks way too highly of himself. It’s gonna be a long season for the New Jersey Blue Jerseys.

Washington Native Americans, 2-6
Rebuilding year. That’s it.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers, 12-15
The defending champs actually managed to improve in the off-season. Not a ton, mind you, but they didn’t really need to improve at all. They looked like champions going into last season (said so right here) and they look like champions again heading into this campaign. The only things I can see derailing the Packers are injury and pure weariness.

Detroit Lions, 9-12
The Lions are for real. I’m pretty sure the last time anyone was able to say that, Barry Sanders was on the team.

Chicago Bears, 3-5
The Bears are thin on both the offensive and defensive lines. Show me the last team that succeeded going into a season with that kind of problem.

Minnesota Vikings, 2-5
At least the Vikings are out from under Brett Favre. So that’s nice, right?

NFC South

New Orleans Saints, 11-13
I’ve been back and forth on whether I think the Saints or Falcons are gonna win the NFC South. And I’m only settling on the Saints because the Falcons won the division last year – so I figure, you know, it’s probably New Orleans’ turn. I think the Saints are a better team than they were a year ago – and they might even be better than they were in 2009. That might not be enough to ensure a win in what I expect to be a season-long battle for this division, but it might.

Atlanta Falcons, 11-13
The Falcons, like the Saints, appear to be a better team than they were a season ago. I’m not convinced the defense is where it needs to be, which will likely prove to be a problem come January, but the offense has added some serious talent. And if the points are there, all the defense will need to do through much of the regular season is protect leads.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6-10
I want to believe in the Bucs. I really do. But right now I’m only halfway there. Offense. That’s the half I believe in. Defense, I’m gonna have to see for myself.

Carolina Panthers, 3-6
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Cam Newton and all that. It’s still the start of a rebuilding process for the Panthers.

NFC West

St. Louis Rams, 8-10
Either the Rams or the Cardinals are gonna win the NFC West. And lose in the first round of the playoffs. How very exciting for one of them.

Arizona Cardinals, 8-10
I’m not anti Kevin Kolb at all. In fact, given the way things shook out in Philly, I really hope Kolb works out to be a stud. Thing is, I haven’t seen any significant evidence to suggest that he will. I also haven’t seen any real evidence that the Cards can play D. If it turns out Kolb is what the Cards believe, and if Arizona somehow discovers a defense, the team should be able to win the division. If not, it’s another season of mediocrity.

San Francisco 49ers, 4-6
Everything is new in San Francisco. That’s a good start. But not in a year without an off-season.

Seattle Seahawks, 3-5
The Seahawks went and got themselves a new quarterback in the off-season. That should be good practice for the 2012 off-season, when they go looking for yet another. Andrew Luck might just be the guy.

Playoffs

Sure, why not? Because, you know, I totally predict now who’s gonna be playing well in January. Can’t everyone?

AFC
1. New England
2. San Diego
3. Houston
4. Baltimore
5. Pittsburgh
6. Kansas City

NFC
1. Green Bay
2. Philadelphia
3. New Orleans
4. St. Louis
5. Atlanta
6. Detroit

Wild Card Playoffs

AFC
Houston defeats Kansas City
Pittsburgh defeats Baltimore

NFC
New Orleans defeats Detroit
Atlanta defeats St. Louis

Divisional Playoffs

AFC
San Diego defeats Houston
New England defeats Pittsburgh

NFC
Green Bay defeats Atlanta
Philadelphia defeats New Orleans

Conference Championships

AFC
New England defeats San Diego

NFC
Philadelphia defeats Green Bay

Super Bowl XLVI
New England defeats Philadelphia, 35-17

So there you go. Exactly the way the NFL season won’t go. Now you don’t even have to watch. Lucky you.

Pittsburgh (+2.5) vs. Green Bay
Let’s start with what I don’t think. For instance, I don’t think this game comes down to whether Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback than Ben Douchelisbagger. I’m pretty sure he is (though not as sure as I am that he’s a better person — because, you know, just about everyone, even icky Mark Sanchez, is at least marginally a better person than Douchelisbagger).

Neither do I believe this game comes down to which offense can establish the run and which defense can stop it. The Steelers were slightly better at both during the regular season, but the Packers have excelled at both through the playoffs.

And I don’t think an effective pass rush is the key to this game, either, mostly because I’m not sure what an effective pass rush means here. It certainly doesn’t make a lot of sense to do a ton of blitzing. Douchelisbagger is too hard to bring down; send extra guys after him with any kind of frequency and you risk creating holes in your coverage and leaving yourself exposed to those ridiculous completions he has a habit of throwing with defenders draped all over him. And Rodgers is a quarterback in the style of Tom Brady, who shredded the Steelers D in Pittsburgh back in week 10; blitz him and he just coolly steps up and finds the open man.

So you’re gonna use only your down linemen and outside linebackers to get after the QB on most pass plays. And, OK, sure, with the pass rushers the Steelers have, and with Maurkice Pouncey’s absence likely creating opportunities for B.J. Raji to get into the Pittsburgh backfield and make a mess of things, it seems likely that a standard pass rush is probably gonna be enough to hurry both quarterbacks more often than they’d like. But that doesn’t necessarily translate to sacks or turnovers; it simply creates the possibility for errors in judgment.

The question, to my mind, is this: Which team is likely to be in a better position to capitalize on whatever mental errors the quarterbacks might make? And that’s where I believe the difference in this game will come from. Because while both teams have formidable secondaries, I think the Packers have the edge there.

Statistically speaking, Green Bay’s pass D has been somewhat better than Pittsburgh’s. On the field, the Packers are simply a faster team than the Steelers — at virtually every position, including wide receiver and defensive back. And, most important, while the key player in Green Bay’s secondary, the incredibly underappreciated Charles Woodson, is healthy and very, very hungry, Pittsburgh’s best DB, Troy Polamalu, has an Achilles tendon injury and is, at best, operating at 75-80 percent. Polamalu’s still a dangerous player, of course. But Woodson is more dangerous in this game.

I think the Steelers need Douchelisbagger to play flawlessly more than the Packers need a flawless effort from Rodgers. And since I think Rodgers is the QB more likely to play flawlessly, I figure that leaves Pittsburgh in a bad position. I anticipate a hard-fought and close game. But I think the Packers come out ahead. (And I really rather hope a pick-six by Woodson makes the difference.) Green Bay by four.

Forget about the lines. The safe picks this conference championship weekend are the home teams. Probably. I mean, look, both Green Bay and New Jersey are six seeds. That’s not important in and of itself, particularly since it means they both come into this round having ousted the top-seeded teams in their conferences a week ago. But it does mean that neither team has played a home game in the playoffs. Two straight road wins is hard enough; three borders on impossible. In fact, only three teams ever have qualified for the Super Bowl by winning three playoff games on the road: The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, and the 2007 New York Giants. So the odds say we won’t be adding two teams to that list this season. And if you’re gonna play it safe, you probably have to assume we won’t be adding one.

Still and all, I’m taking one of the road teams. I’m not doing it to be contrarian. I’m not doing it to be cute. I’m doing it because I think one of them is gonna win. Which? Well, in reality, it’ll probably be the opposite of the one I pick. For my theory, though, you’ve gotta read on. Here’s what not to expect.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago
I was certain the Packers would lose to the Falcons last weekend. And I could not possibly have been one bit more wrong. How did it happen? Aaron Rodgers. That’s how. I knew Rodgers was good, but I had no idea how good until I saw him go all William Tecumseh Sherman on Atlanta. That was easily one of the best performances by a quarterback in a post-season game that I’ve ever seen. You have to like the chances of any team with a quarterback playing at that high a level. And, yeah, the Bears had a nice win last weekend, too. But they beat the Seahawks, a team that had no business even making the playoffs, let alone progressing to the divisional round. So you’ll forgive me (or you will if you’re not a Chicago fan, I suppose) if I stop short of reading too much into that particular victory. To my mind, this game comes down to whether you trust Rodgers to find ways to move the ball against Chicago’s damned tough defense more than you trust Jay Cutler to get it done against Green Bay’s somewhat tougher D. Me, I’m gonna favor the better quarterback against the slightly (and I mean slightly) lesser defense there. I think Rodgers throws a pick at some point in this game. But I also think the Bears turn it over twice. So I’m taking the Packers and looking for them to win by somewhere around six points.

NY Jets (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
Ugh. I wish to hell there were some way for both of these teams to lose. Because, you know, the Frat Boys are the Frat Boys. Thoroughly unlikable. And the Steelers, great franchise though they may be, are quarterbacked by the infinitely detestable Ben Douchelisbagger, a man who, if there were any justice at all in the world, would be in prison. I can’t root for either team. And rooting hard against either one would feel a bit too much like rooting for the other. So I think what I’m gonna do is root for a blowout and a healthy bit if carnage. That is, I don’t care which team wins; I just want whichever one loses to lose by multiple touchdowns. And if a few guys, including but not limited to Douchelisbagger, happen to suffer season-ending injuries, well, let’s just say no tears will be shed in my living room. Thing is, I’m not counting on a blowout. I rather suspect that what we’ll get will be a close game. That’s certainly what we got back in week 15 when the Frat Boys went into Pittsburgh, hung tough, and came out ahead 22-17. And, with the exception of the fact that the Steelers will have Troy Polamalu back, I don’t see where these are substantially different squads than the ones that met five weeks ago. Still, Polamalu’s no minor factor (if he can hold up). And it’s hard to imagine the Frat Boys can find a way to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh twice in the same season. Plus, you get the feeling that New Jersey won their Super Bowl last weekend. Add to all of that the fact that it’s all but impossible to run the ball against the Steelers, which means Mark Sanchez is probably actually gonna have to play a good game this weekend if his team is to have a chance, and I just can’t see the Frat Boys coming out on top. I suspect New Jersey keep it close. Probably really close. But I do expect Pittsburgh to pull it out in the end, maybe by a single point. Then, with any luck, they’ll get their clocks cleaned by the Packers two weeks from now in Dallas.

Go ahead and accuse me of playing it safe because I’m taking all of the home teams (straight up) this week. I’m fine with that. Because, look, home teams winning is just how the divisional round usually shakes out. The home teams this weekend are hosting games because they were the best or second best teams in their conferences during the regular season. They’ve had a week off to rest, heal and prepare. The visitors, meanwhile, have had to fight their way through the wild card round. And this season, three of the visiting teams in this round also were visiting teams in the wild card round. The Packers and Frat Boys are six seeds. The Ravens are the AFC five seed. And the Seahawks, the only surviving team that hosted a game last weekend, backed into the playoffs by “winning” the horrifically bad NFC West with a record of 7-9. Even after the upset victory over New Orleans last weekend, Seattle takes a losing record on the road to Chicago. And, sure, New Jersey and Baltimore, though seeded lower, were probably and certainly (in that order) better than the Indianapolis and Kansas City teams they faced last weekend. Green Bay was better than Philadelphia, too, though you’d hardly have guessed it based on how close the Packers came to losing at the end of the game. But none of those teams — not one—  is better than the squad it’s traveling to face this weekend. So I’m not picking any of them to win, though I do like two of them to cover. If that makes me predictable, well, I suppose I can live with that. Here’s what not to expect.

Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh

There’s exactly one thing I can say about this game for absolute certain: It’s gonna be brutal. Last time these two teams played, Ben Douchelisbagger ended up with a broken nose (and, no, not because he got punched in the head; that was in a different game against a different team — though it was still pretty cool to see). The time before that, the Ravens went into Pittsburgh and handed the Steelers their first loss of the season with a last-second touchdown; the final score, 17-14, reflected the fact that it was a hard-fought battle that left both teams beat to hell. I see no reason to expect anything other than more of the same. And while Jets-Patriots has been getting all the advance attention, I think this very likely will turn out to be the game of the weekend. How it’ll go, I’m not sure. But here’s what I know: The Ravens are a good road team, but they haven’t been terribly good playing in Pittsburgh. That win back in week four was the first in for the Ravens in Pittsburgh in four years, the first ever with  Joe Flacco at quarterback, and just the fifth since the team moved to Baltimore in 1996. That’s not exactly shocking; it’s hard to beat division rivals on their turf, harder still when those rivals are perennial contenders. And even when both teams have been contenders, things haven’t worked out well for the Ravens; they’re 0-2 in Pittsburgh in the playoffs. That doesn’t mean this year’s team loses, of course. But there’s not a whole lot of reason to think this year’s team will win. The Ravens did get their post-season off to a great start. But the Steelers are getting their post-season started at home, coming off a bye and facing an opponent that’s playing its second straight road game. There are a lot of advantages for Pittsburgh right there. There are also advantages to be found in the fact that while both of these offenses live and die by their ability to run the ball, it’s a whole lot harder to run against the Steelers, who allowed just three yards per carry during the regular season, than it is to run against the Ravens, who gave up nearly four yards per rush. It’s hard to score against both teams on the ground, but it’s easier to score against Baltimore through the air than it is to put up passing TDs against Pittsburgh. Unless the Ravens find a way to take the ball away from the Steelers two or three times, I just can’t see them coming out ahead. And I’m not counting on anyone having that kind of performance against a team with a +14 regular season giveaway/takeaway differential. So I’m taking Pittsburgh straight up in this game, though I suspect the difference will be more like a single point.

Green Bay (+2.5) at Atlanta

OK, it’s a huge oversimplification — I wanna make sure I state that up front — but here’s what I saw Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia: The Eagles played poorly from start to finish (couldn’t get out of their own way on offense, gave up 138 rushing yards, 4.3 per carry, to a team with a ground attack that was middling at best through the regular season, and missed two field goals, either one of which would have scripted the end of the game differently) and still had a chance to win in the final minute of the game. So tell me again how I’m supposed to be impressed with the Packers. Tell me again why I would possibly think Green Bay, playing its second consecutive road game, can go into Atlanta and beat a well-rested Falcons squad that’s more balanced than the Eagles and that beat Green Bay in week 12 (a point at which the Packers were playing their best football of the regular season). Because, me, I don’t see much hope there. Yeah, if Green Bay’s pass rushers can get to Matt Ryan and either put him on his back or hurry him into making bad decisions, they’ve got a chance to come out with another stolen win. But if they can’t get to Ryan consistently, they’re in for a long afternoon. And I don’t think Green Bay’s getting into the Atlanta backfield often enough to make that kind of difference. We’ll see on Saturday, I suppose, but until I actually witness it, I’m not buying the idea that the Packers can win this game. I’ll take the Falcons and, yes, I’ll give the lousy two and a half points. I’d be temped to give as much as double that.

Seattle (+10) at Chicago

Do I actually have to waste my time and yours actually discussing this game? Or can we just agree that while it was very nice for the Seahawks that they were able to rise to the occasion and eliminate the defending champs at home last weekend, there’s next to no chance they’re gonna be able to take that show on the road? Don’t get me wrong; I don’t believe the Bears are a great football team. They’re certainly not a championship-caliber squad. Their defense is vulnerable to the pass and their offense can’t keep up with an opponent that puts up more than 24 points. But the Seahawks aren’t even a playoff-caliber team. Their wild card round win is already one more than they could ever have expected to pull off playing with the big boys. I’m not ready to give 10 points to any team Chicago faces, but I’ll definitely take the Bears straight up. They’ll take it by a touchdown.

NY Jets (+8.5) at New England

It’s been a thing this week to say, “Well, don’t expect a 45-3 blowout this time.” OK, um, no kidding. What exactly am I supposed to take from that? Yeah, Rex Ryan says he was outcoached back in week 13. That’s because he was outcoached. And his team was outprepared. And his players were outplayed. But you know what? It’s not like any or all of those things are gonna have to change for the Frat Boys to keep this one closer. They’re gonna keep it closer because 45-3 blowouts just don’t happen twice in a season when you match up a pair of playoff teams. New Jersey comes into this game 12-5. That’s not a record you achieve by being the kind of team that gets its doors blown off on a regular basis. Thing is, not getting blown out is a long way from not losing. And when it comes to looking at this game in advance, I think a lot of what was true in week 13 remains true today. As has been noted all over the place, if the Frat Boys are gonna have a chance to win this thing, they’re gonna have to find a way to get to Tom Brady. And that’s where New Jersey gets into trouble. Their defense is built to take away big-play receivers. It works a lot of the time. (Certainly worked well in the wild card round against the banged up and run deficient Colts.) But it’s not an effective strategy against the Patriots. Brady simply has too many weapons. Even if you manage to neutralize two targets, you’re still leaving Brady with options. And if you drop extra guys into coverage, you end up looking a lot of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. That leaves you one avenue: Get to Brady. The Frat Boys can’t do that consistently if they rush three or four. It’s not how their defensive front works. New Jersey gets to quarterbacks by blitzing; and you can’t blitz Brady. When you do, he picks you apart. So it’s not as simple for the Frat Boys as “figure out a way to get to Brady.” And on the other side of the ball, it isn’t nearly so complicated for the Patriots as “figure out a way to get to Mark Sanchez.” Because you don’t necessarily have to get to Sanchez. What you have to do is shut down the run and force Sanchez to beat you. When you do that, you put the kid into situations where he makes mistakes. He made more than a few in Indianapolis last weekend and lived to tell the tale. But here’s one way the Patriots aren’t the Colts: The Pats picked off 24 passes this season on their way to a historically great giveaway/takeaway differential of +27. The Colts picked off 10 balls and landed at -4. Sanchez can’t make the mistakes against New England that he did against Indianapolis. Simply cant. But what are the odds that he won’t? Not terribly good, particularly if the game is on his shoulders (the throwing one of which is hurt). So go ahead and tell me about how coaching and preparation are gonna turn Sanchez and the Frat Boys pass rush into something fundamentally different from what they’ve been for 17 games. If you can, I’ll have to concede that New Jersey has a chance to do something more impressive than avoid another rout. Until then, my thinking is this: A 42-point margin is highly unlikely, but it’s also entirely unnecessary. A single point will do the job. And the 17-20 by which I expect the Patriots to outscore the Frat Boys will be more than enough.

Here we are. Seventeen weeks of buildup and now the real football starts. And it starts on a mostly exciting note. There’s no getting worked up about the first of this weekend’s games. The Saints are beating the Seahawks pure and simple. The only person in the universe who may not know that is Pete Carroll, and you have to kinda suspect that even Pete knows it. After that, though, it looks like this should be a spectacular weekend of football, ending with what ought to be the hardest-fought game of the wild card round as the Packers take on the Eagles in Philadelphia. I’m excited. And that means I’m probably more prone to bad judgments than usual. Here’s what not to expect.

New Orleans (-10) at Seattle
You know who should be rooting for the Seahawks in this game? Fans of every NFL playoff team except the Saints. And, no, I’m not saying that because I think the Saints are particularly scary. (I mean, look, the defending champs are about as good a wild card team as you’re ever likely to see, and they look to me like an outfit with a solid chance to get to another Super Bowl. That’s just not my point here.) The Seahawks are a weak squad. And, you know, I don’t say this to take issue with the NFL playoff system —  everybody knows how it works and everybody’s playing by the same rules, which strikes me as fundamentally fair — but the truth is Seattle has no real business in this tournament. And whether you’re the Falcons or Bears looking for an easy first post-season matchup, the Eagles hoping for chance to bounce back from a tough divisional round game in Chicago by hosting a relatively easy NFC Championship, or the Packers looking for a back door into Cowboys Stadium, you’ve gotta like your chances with Seattle over any other team in the NFC. And if you’re any of the six AFC playoff teams, you certainly couldn’t hope for a better fate than to land in the Super Bowl and find yourself facing an NFC champion that stumbled to a regular season record of 7-9 (I don’t care how damned hot that team would be made out to be after winning three straight to get to the big show). So what does any of this have to do with how this game will play out? Next to nothing. But, honestly, what are you looking for me to tell you? That Seattle has a realistic chance to beat New Orleans? I can’t. Because they don’t. And, yes, I’m aware of the Saints’ serious injury issues at running back. Doesn’t matter. Seattle can’t run, can’t pass, can’t stop the run, can’t stop the pass and can’t protect the ball (and, OK, New Orleans can’t protect the ball, either, but the Saints are slightly less bad at it than the Seahawks). Also, Seattle “qualified” for the playoffs by tripping into a week 17 victory over St. Louis. So, yeah, I think rooting for a Seahawks win makes sense, expecting one not so much. Saints by 14.

NY Jets (+2.5) at Indianapolis
OK, listen, you play the teams that are on your schedule. That’s a fact. And no one’s asking the Frat Boys to apologize for the route they took to 11-5. But the full story is worth telling and it’s this: New Jersey beat New England in East Rutherford in week two (and got clobbered by the Pats in Foxborough in week 13), and dodged a bullet in Pittsburgh in week 15. Those are the Frat Boys two wins of the season over teams that finished with winning records. New Jersey’s other nine wins came against this stellar lineup: Miami (7-9), Buffalo (4-12), Minnesota (6-10), Denver (4-12), Detroit (6-10), Cleveland (5-11), Houston (6-10), and Cincinnati (4-12). They lost to Miami (in the Meadowlands) the second time around. They also lost to Baltimore and Green Bay at home and Chicago on the road. You seeing a pattern here? Because I know I am. And you know what? I don’t care if it’s personal or business. I don’t think New Jersey can stand up to Indianapolis either way. The Frat Boys are in a tough spot. You don’t succeed defensively against Peyton Manning by blitzing. Just like Tom Brady, Manning has the head to figure you out and the pocket presence to step up, recognize where your blitz has left you exposed, and pick you apart. Trouble for New Jersey is that their defense probably can’t succeed if it can’t make good use of the blitz. So what do you do? Well, if you can adjust, rush three or four and sit back and wait for your moments, you can potentially get Manning to throw a costly pick or two. But that strategy is tough to pull off when you don’t have an offense that can keep you in the game if it trends toward a shootout (which it will) and the Frat Boys simply don’t have the firepower or the experience to pull that off. I think this will be a game through the first half. But the Colts should start to pull away by the middle of the third quarter. And when all is said and done, I expect Indy to be on top by something on the order of nine.

Baltimore (-3) at Kansas City
The Chiefs haven’t won a post-season game since 1993 (well, it was January 16, 1994, actually, but it was the ’93 season). Their coach at the time was Marty Schottenheimer. Their quarterback was Joe Montana. They were demolished by the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship a week later. And they’ve bowed in their fist playoff game five times since, despite having thrice posted 13-3 regular season records and twice (in 1995 and ’97) earned the conference one seed. That ain’t good. And if this year’s squad is gonna turn things around, it’s going to need the offensive line to come up huge in terms of pass blocking. The Chiefs have succeeded on offense this season using their very productive rushing attack to set up an efficient passing game. Matt Cassel, fairly quietly, has racked up some rather impressive stats. But you can’t run the ball against the Ravens the way the Chiefs have run the ball against their regular season opponents. Kansas City should have some success on the ground, but it probably won’t be enough to worry the Baltimore defense into playing backers up and opening passing opportunities. That doesn’t mean those opportunities won’t be there. The Ravens have a one-man secondary, which means that if Cassel can get some time, he should be able to channel his inner Tom Brady, find open receivers, and keep the ball moving. Thing is, that’s easier said than done. The Chiefs offensive linemen are excellent run blockers, but I haven’t seen evidence that they’re excellent pass blockers. And if those linemen don’t play spectacularly this weekend, the Ravens pass rush is gonna be all over Cassel. That’s problematic. It’s also, ultimately, the reason I expect the Chiefs to extend their one-and-done run to six. I don’t think it’s a gimme for Baltimore, and I’m certainly not giving three points to a solid team playing at home, but I like the Ravens to come out ahead. I’m guessing they’ll do it by a single point.

Green Bay (+2.5) at Philadelphia
You know, on one hand, while week one was an awfully long time ago (and the Eagles and Packers teams that squared off back then are very different from the squads taking the field here), it’s hard to get your head around the idea that the Packers could beat the Eagles in Philadelphia twice in a single season. On the other hand, I just don’t believe Michael Vick when he says he’s 100 percent. That has nothing (OK, very little) to do with the fact that Vick is an established liar. I’m sure Vick either believes he’s 100 percent, wants to believe he’s 100 percent, wants his coaches to believe he’s 100 percent, or wants the Packers to believe he’s 100 percent (or, you know, all of the above). I just don’t buy it when a guy says on Sunday that he’s at 50 percent, upgrades himself to 75 percent on Monday and declares himself 100 percent on Wednesday. And I  really don’t think a quarterback whose success is based on mobility can come all the way back from a quadriceps injury in two weeks. So what happens if Vick can’t move around the way he’s used to? Well, the Packers pass rush eats him alive is what. Green Bay’s defense logged 47 sacks during the regular season, including a rather painful looking one of Vick by Clay Matthews late in that week one game. The difficulty there, for Philly, is that their offense really has to produce in this game, because the odds of their D shutting down Green Bay’s passing attack aren’t good at all. I thought a week ago that the Packers couldn’t win this game. I’m still not sure they can. But I’ve got a bad, bad feeling about the Eagles offense. So I’m taking Green Bay to pull off the upset here. We’ll see how that works out.