This Football Blog

What can I tell you other than proceed with caution. Which is to say, here’s what not to expect.

Philadelphia (-3) at Seattle
Really, NFL? Really? This is what you’ve got for us on a Thursday night? I mean, OK, back when the schedule was made a lot of folks figured the Eagles would be contending for … well, for something at this point in the season. But the Seahawks? Was there really an idea that, had Philly turned out to be an actual “dream team,” Seattle would have been able to give them a game? Certainly not in my mind. Because, hey, while it might be hard to figure out why the Eagles have failed to meet expectations, I can’t say anything about the Seahawks’ 4-7 record surprises me in the least. Seattle’s offense can’t advance the ball on the ground or through the air. And their defense is middle of the pack at best. They hold onto the ball better than the Eagles, so I suppose they’ve got that going for them. But there are 28 teams in the league that hold onto the ball better than the Eagles, so it’s not much of a distinction. And, again, none of this should come as a surprise to anyone. So what was the thought here? I’m not gonna come up with an answer to that question. Another question I can’t answer definitively: Can Philly put a crushing loss that effectively ended their season behind them, travel across the country on four days rest, and find a way (or the will) to win? I think the answer is no. I think the Eagles are done, and they’ll be lucky if they manage more than one win over the final five weeks of the season. But I won’t swear by it. I suppose I’ve gotta make a pick, though, so I’ll go with Seattle and figure they win it by a field goal.

Oakland (+3) at Miami
I think Oakland is in trouble here. With the Broncos breathing down their necks in the AFC West title race, the Raiders can’t afford to drop any games, particularly not the “easy” ones (which is to say the ones against 3-8 opponents). But I’m not sure the Raiders can win this game. I mean, sure, Miami’s little three-game winning streak ended Thanksgiving day in Dallas. But only just. And, sure, the Cowboys’ drive for the game-winning field goal included a lot of DeMarco Murray. That’s certainly good news for the Raiders, who rely on their ground attack for the better part of their offense. But it remains the case that Miami’s stingy defense is stingiest against the run. You have to beat Miami through the air. And I’m not sure Carson Palmer is up to the task. Not at this point. If Palmer comes out throwing the ball well, and playing the way he did at San Diego in week 10, the Raiders will be OK. If he plays the way he did against Chicago on Sunday, Oakland’s going to struggle. And given that he’ll be traveling across the country to face a well-rested Dolphins squad, my gut says there’s a whole lot better chance that we see the iffy Palmer than the solid Palmer. Miami by one.

Atlanta (-2.5) at Houston
Man, it looked like the Texans had something going there, didn’t it? And, I don’t know, considering the state of the AFC South, maybe they still do. But, look, by and large, you don’t succeed in the NFL when you get down to your third-string quarterback. And, with all due respect to T.J. Yates, when you bring in a guy who’s been out of the league for most of a season (and who should have called it quits much sooner), it’s a pretty clear signal that the player you’ve got taking snaps isn’t a starter in waiting but just someone who’s good enough to hold a clipboard and run the practice squad. That doesn’t win division titles. It usually doesn’t even win games. Atlanta by a touchdown.

Cincinnati (+7) at Pittsburgh
Seven? As the spread? No. Sorry. I’d buy seven as the over/under in this game, but neither of these teams is outscoring the other by seven. Steelers by a point.

Kansas City (+8) at Chicago
Two teams. Half a starting quarterback. But, you know, at least the Bears play defense. Chicago by four.

Denver (pick ’em) at Minnesota
The Vikings’ run defense is better than most realize and that’s going to prove a problem for still-not-an-NFL-quarterback Tim Tebow. But only until the middle of the third quarter at which point, having been on the field all bloody afternoon (as their offense goes three and out over and over again), the Minnesota D is bound to start wearing down. Then watch for that purported Tebow magic (or the football rooting interests of Jehovah, or whatever the hell it’s supposed to be) to set in. Broncos by 10.

Tennessee (+1.5) at Buffalo
Any chance the Bills had of halting their November swoon was squandered last Sunday afternoon in New Jersey. The Titans, meanwhile, have new life in the AFC South. And, sure, that life may be largely a product of the Texans’ inability to keep a healthy QB on the field, but it’s life just the same. It should be enough to give Tennessee the edge. Titans by a field goal.

NY Jets (-3) at Washington
If the Frat Boys want fans to stop booing their hideously overrated quarterback, they might want to start playing better football. Or I suppose another option would be to play the Native Americans. You can’t help but come out of that matchup looking good. I expect the New Jersey faithful will be back to worshiping “Sanchize” and talking Super Bowl by the time this one’s over. Jersey by 13.

Indianapolis (+21) at New England
Poor, poor Dan Orlovsky. Patriots by 20. (See how I cleverly avoided predicting a team would cover a huge spread while still predicting a blowout? Pretty clever, huh? Means the Pats will actually win by 35.)

Carolina (+3) at Tampa Bay
Let’s see which quarterback can throw the fewest picks. I’m banking on Cam Newton, since he’ll likely throw the fewest passes. Panthers by a field goal.

Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
I’m guessing the Ravens will score at least seven points in this game, so I’m gonna go ahead and give the six and a half. I’m just saying. Baltimore by 14.

Dallas (-4.5) at Arizona
Please, Tony, please find a way to lose this game. Because, you know, there’s some part of me that just really enjoys the idea of the NFC East officially laying claim to the title of League’s Biggest Mess. Of course, it’s not gonna happen. Dallas by a field goal.

Green Bay (-7) at NY Giants
The last time an NFL team had a legitimate shot of running the table, it was the Giants who got in the way. Can New Jersey play spoiler once again? No. This just ain’t that Giants team. Green Bay continued to steamroll with a win by no less than 19.

St. Louis (+13.5) at San Francisco
Now that Jack Del Rio‘s been put out of football fans’ misery, ask not for whom the bell tolls next. It tolls for Steve Spagnuolo. And the fact that Spags, unlike Del Rio, doesn’t really have it coming, doesn’t mean one damned thing. Oh, yeah, and this is where the Niners clinch their first division title (and first post-season appearance) in nine years. San Francisco by 16.

Detroit (+8.5) at New Orleans
Guess who’s doing the stomping this weekend? (Hint: It won’t be Ndamukong Suh.) New Orleans by 12.

San Diego (-2.5) at Jacksonville
Hey, look. An opponent the Chargers should actually be able to beat. Only, there’s that weird thing where bad teams win the first game after their coaches get fired. So maybe not. I’m taking the home team in the upset here. Jaguars by a point.

It’s the semi-annual (which is to say I can’t remember if I do it every year and I’m too damned lazy to check) “things to be thankful for” installment of my notoriously inaccurate NFL picks. Hooray. Here’s what not to expect.

Green Bay (-6.5) at Detroit
I’m thankful that I don’t have anything more than my pride at stake with these picks (and that I don’t have a whole lot of pride to begin with). Because that allows me to engage in this kind of ridiculous reasoning: Green Bay’s gonna drop a game eventually. The reason perfect seasons come along so infrequently is that it’s hard, given the level of competition in the NFL, to play well enough week in and week out over the course of a season to come out on top every week. The Packers have shown some defensive vulnerability of late. The Lions have enough offense to keep up with the Pack, and a pass rush that has at least a chance of making Aaron Rodgers look semi-mortal. And there’s almost always at least one upset on Thanksgiving. The consensus of the experts (and me) is that there’s an upset on the way in Baltimore, which means the favored Ravens will probably win. It’s not like Dallas can’t lose, but it’s hard to imagine Miami going on the road and extending their winning streak to four games. That leaves this game, a tough, division contest featuring a team that has all but sewn up the NFC one seed traveling on a short week to face a team that’s fighting to earn its first post-season berth this century (literally). Call me crazy (you’re probably right), but I’m taking the Lions to win by three.

Miami (+7) at Dallas
I’m thankful that I’m under no obligation to declare (or even decide) whether I’m less impressed by the fact that the Dolphins have stumbled into three straight wins (after having bumbled their way to seven straight losses to start the season) or that Tony Romo has actually managed to go three games in a row without finding a way to cost his team a victory. The game is the dog of the day. Dallas by 10.

San Francisco (+3) at Baltimore
I’m incredibly thankful for that fact that there’s an exciting football game to watch on Thanksgiving night. Can’t wait to sit down with a turkey sandwich and a big pile of leftover mashed potatoes and watch a battle between teams that consistently execute solid football fundamentals. Thanks, Harbaugh brothers. I’m decidedly less thankful for the fact that I need to pick a winner. I think the 49ers are the better team here. Their play on both sides of the ball is more consistent; they’re stronger in the trenches; their offense is more balanced; and their +17 is by far the best giveaway-takeaway differential in the league (the Packers clock in at second with a +12; the Ravens’ +3 is ninth best). But the game is in Baltimore, and West Coast teams typically struggle in East Coast games. Plus, it’s not like San Francisco is better than Baltimore by all that much. And let’s be honest: Baltimore plays in a much tougher division than San Francisco; the Ravens have had to work harder to earn their stats and their division lead. So what’s a fellow to do? In the end, I’m taking Niners, mostly because I believe in the power of turnovers to decide game outcomes. But as long as we get the game I think we’re going to get, I’ll be happy regardless of the outcome. San Francisco by a point.

Minnesota (+9.5) at Atlanta
I’m thankful for the fact that I don’t live in a state where elected officials appear ready to commit hundreds of millions of public dollars to keeping any sports team from moving away. More thankful indeed that my tax dollars won’t be used to underwrite a squad a bad as the Minnesota Vikings. Falcons by two touchdowns.

Tampa Bay (+3) at Tennessee
I suppose if I had to watch it (I don’t), I’d be thankful for how short this game is likely to be. Neither defense can stop the run, so I expect the ball to stay on the ground and the clock to keep running. The Titans are slightly better at keeping running backs out of their end zone. The Tennessee offense is a good bit better at holding onto the ball. And the Titans are at home. So I’m taking Tennessee straight up. It’s a push with the points.

Arizona (+3) at St. Louis
I can’t tell you how thankful I am that I’m not poor Sam Bradford trying to play quarterback behind an O line that’s down to using practice bodies to protect my blind side. That’s gotta hurt. That said, I’m sure Bradford is thankful to be facing a Cardinals team that’s playing on the road for a third straight week, and that isn’t very good to begin with. So there’s that. Rams by a point.

Carolina (-3.5) at Indianapolis
If I were a Colts fan, I suppose I’d be thankful that for the price of a miserable season, I’d probably be looking at my team drafting its next great quarterback in April. That’s gotta be worth something. Panthers by a touchdown.

Cleveland (+7.5) at Cincinnati
I’m going to guess that the Cincinnati Bengals are thankful to be catching the Cleveland Browns at the exact moment when they need to stop a two-game skid and get back on the path to the post-season. Who wouldn’t be? Ced Benson has a big day and the Bengals come out ahead by a touchdown.

Houston (-3) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars no doubt are thankful that they get to face Matt Leinart, who hasn’t thrown a pass in a regular season game since 2009, instead of the injured Matt Schaub. I’m sure they’re less thankful about Andre Johnson’s return to good health. Assuming Leinart isn’t completely unprepared (and, you know, he’s had two weeks), Houston should come out ahead, though I can’t see giving more than a point.

Buffalo (+8) at NY Jets
The Frat Boys should be thankful that the Bills are a bit farther along the road to done than they are. That feeling won’t last, but I’m sure it’ll do for this weekend. New Jersey by 10.

Washington (+4) at Seattle
Maybe the Seahawks are thankful to face a team that sucks even more than they do. I don’t know. Don’t care. Seattle by six.

Chicago (+5) at Oakland
The Raiders should be thankful for the fact that they play in the weakest division in the NFL. And for the fact that they don’t have to face the Bears at full strength. Oakland may still struggle early, but as the game wears on and the Bears D, which should be on the field quite a bit, wears down, the Raiders will break away. Oakland by a touchdown.

New England (-3) at Philadelphia
I’ll be thankful if the Patriots, who appear to have discovered a pass rush, can keep it up and finally put the “Dream Team” out of my misery. New England by 10.

Denver (+6.5) at San Diego
The Chargers, whose post-season hopes are fading fast, should be thankful to face a team without a real quarterback. San Diego by four.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Kansas City
I think we should all be thankful that we get to watch Tyler Palko lead the Chiefs against an AFC post-season contender for the second straight week. Because, you know, that Monday night game in New England was so close (I mean, it really was — until halftime). Three more picks from Palko and the Steelers win it by 17.

NY Giants (+7) at New Orleans
The Giants ought to be thankful they started 6-4, because with their remaining schedule, 9-7 is a distinct possibility. Thing is, the way it’s going, that may be enough for them to take the NFC East title. I don’t think New Jersey’s defense can slow down the New Orleans offense, or that the Giant’s unbalanced offensive attack can succeed against the Saints’ D. So unless the Giants can force a bunch of turnovers (which is a possibility), I can’t see them winning. New Orleans by a field goal.

OK, so the Jets are even worse than I thought. I can live with that. And, you know, I’ve got a whole lot of other opportunities to be wrong still ahead of me. Here’s the rest of what not to expect in week eleven.

Carolina (+7) at Detroit
If there’s a reason, beyond the general sense that Detroit is starting to drift downward in the NFC North standings, to believe that Carolina has any chance of keeping this close, I can’t think of what it might be. Cam Newton? Nah. One player just ain’t enough. Lions by 10.

Oakland (+1) at Minnesota
OK, I’ve been nothing if not up front about how unimpressed I am with the Chargers. I can’t claim otherwise. And still, San Diego is a much better team than Minnesota. The Chargers have an overrated defense; the Vikings have no defense. The Chargers have an iffy O line; the Vikings have an awful O line. The Chargers are ostensibly in the playoff hunt; the Vikings are starting to prepare for the draft. So if you can go into San Diego and beat the Chargers with your best offensive player on the bench, you ought to be able to go into Minnesota and do the same to the Vikings, right? That’s where my head’s at, anyway. Oakland by four.

Dallas (-7) at Washington
Native Americans quarterbacks have thrown a combined 15 picks this season. That’s a mark topped so far only by Phillip Rivers. Rex Grossman has been responsible for 11 of those interceptions, while managing just six TD passes. Even Tony Romo isn’t that bad. Dallas by 10.

Buffalo (+3) at Miami
The Bills are fading. They’ve lost three of their last four games and took an absolute beating last weekend in Dallas. And while you wouldn’t exactly say the Dolphins are on the ascent, they have managed two straight wins. That’s something. But you know what? The Bills are still the better team in this matchup. And my gut tells me they have a bit of life left in them yet. I think they dig deep and find a way to pull off the road upset here. Buffalo by a point.

Jacksonville (+1) at Cleveland
I’m not sure how the Browns are favored by one here. I mean, last I checked, even a safety is worth two points. And since it’ll be a small miracle if there’s more than one scoring play in this entire game, I’m thinking whichever team wins has to come out ahead by at least two. The Browns are at home, so I’ll take them. Cleveland by two.

Cincinnati (+7) at Baltimore
The Bengals had a chance to establish themselves as serious AFC North contenders in a home game against the Steelers last weekend. They came up short, thanks mostly to Andy Dalton‘s two fourth quarter picks (killer for a team that has succeeded in large part because they almost never turn the ball over). They have a chance to turn it around this weekend by beating the amazingly hot-and-cold Ravens on the road. It’s hard for me to imagine that happening, but I think the Bengals will be able to keep it closer than a touchdown. Baltimore by three.

Tampa Bay (+14) at Green Bay
And the beat goes on. Packers by 20.

Seattle (+3) at St. Louis
Ah, the NFC West. The only reason to suspect either offense will be able to complete a drive is that neither defense can stop anything. I’ll take the home team straight up, but I’m looking for a push with the points.

Arizona (+3) at San Francisco
The 49ers can’t mathematically clinch the NFC West title this weekend. They’ll have to wait until their Thanksgiving night matchup with Baltimore for that opportunity. San Francisco by a touchdown.

Tennessee (+6.5) at Atlanta
Rumor has it, the Falcons spent the whole week adding a revolutionary new play into their offensive repertoire. It’s called the goddamn quarterback sneak. Unless abject stupidity finds a way to prevail for two consecutive weeks, Atlanta wins this one by a field goal.

San Diego (+3.5) at Chicago
Do you think once the Chargers fall to 4-6, “experts” will stop claiming they’re still the top contender for the AFC West title? I certainly do hope so. Chicago by 10.

Philadelphia (+5.5) at NY Giants
Honestly, I think you can set Philadelphia’s quarterback issues aside. At least if you’re looking at who’s gonna win straight up. Because the fact of the matter is, even when the Eagles are healthy, they have an incredible knack for blowing leads in the fourth quarter. And no team in football this season has been better at comeback wins than the Giants. Of course, the question of Eagles quarterback does come into play when you’re looking at this thing with the points. And the answer there is New Jersey by nine.

Kansas City (+15) at New England
I don’t know if the Patriots D, banged up as it is, started rounding into form in New Jersey Sunday night, or if the Frat Boys simply played like the mediocre team they are. I don’t think it matters for this game. I think what matters here, for the most part is this: Tyler Palko. New England by 21.

I’m having a crazy busy week and it’s looking like I’m not gonna be able to get all of my foolish football picks done before New Jersey-Denver kicks off. So here’s what not to expect this evening.

NY Jets (-6) at Denver
If this game were being played on Sunday or in New Jersey, it wouldn’t be close. And it shouldn’t be close tonight. Not even with the Frat Boys having to travel on a short week. Not even with New Jersey coming off a tough, emotional loss to New England on Sunday night. Not even with LaDainian Tomlinson out with a knee. Because the Broncos are short on running backs, too. They’re also short on NFL quarterbacks, which is to say, their starter isn’t one. But I suspect it will be close. The Frat Boys still win, but not by six. I wouldn’t give more than a point.

Halfway through the season, and I still can’t make heads nor tails of anything. Here, once again, is your rundown of what not to expect.

Oakland (+7) at San Diego
You know what? If it were just a matter of whether I think Carson Palmer is up to speed or, you know, still has it, I might pick the Raiders here. But it isn’t. In fact, I would suggest that neither Palmer’s abilities nor his familiarity with the Oakland offense matters one little bit. Because as long as Darren McFadden is unavailable, the Raiders have next to no chance of winning no matter who plays quarterback or how well. San Diego by 10.

Arizona (+14) at Philadelphia
Which of these teams is the greatest … disappointment? I’m not qualified to say, since I can’t begin to care about either of them. But if I had to pick one, I’d go with the Eagles. Philadelphia by a scant six.

Tennessee (+3) at Carolina
One of these two teams has an offense. The other sometimes pretends to have a defense. I’m going with the one that’s at home and that knows how to put up points. Carolina by a field goal.

Houston (-3) at Tampa Bay
Josh Freeman is more right than he realizes. It’s not just in the NFC South that not scoring touchdowns will kill you; it’s an NFL-wide thing. Also, Josh, just so you know, throwing more picks than TDs has a tendency to cut into your winning percentage. The Bucs fall to 4-5 with a two-touchdown loss to the far superior Texans.

Washington (+3.5) at Miami
Can the Dolphins possibly win two games in a row? Sure. I mean, looks who’s visiting. Miami by four.

St. Louis (+3) at Cleveland
The Browns at least have a defense. That’s gotta be worth something, right? I mean, you know, at home. Browns by a point.

Buffalo (+5.5) at Dallas
I don’t know that it’s quite time to call the Bills officially done, but it sure did look that way last Sunday. Cowboys by a touchdown.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Cincinnati
That’s right, these Steelers. Sorry, but this just isn’t a team that can afford to be giving points when they’re on the road. I don’t expect Andy Dalton to have some kind of career day (though, you know, it’s been a pretty short career so far) against the Pittsburgh defense. But I’m pretty sure he won’t need to. Because I do expect the Cincinnati D to have a good bit of success keeping Pittsburgh off the scoreboard. Bengals by four.

Jacksonville (-3) at Indianapolis
Once again, the Colts see their bid for a perfect season come to a crashing halt in week ten. This is the weekend when Indianapolis finally wins a game. Let’s say by three.

Denver (+3) at Kansas City
Oh, sure. Gimmick offenses work great in the NFL. Or, you know, they work great right up until you face a team that knows what you’re going to pull. And then things get ugly. Tim Tebow takes a beating and the Chiefs stay even with San Diego. Kansas City by six.

New Orleans (pick ’em) at Atlanta
The Saints don’t travel well. The Falcons absolutely need to win this game. And the Falcons pick off a good number of balls. Atlanta by four.

Baltimore (-7) at Seattle
Unless seven is the over-under on Seahawks turnovers, this is about the safest bet of the weekend. Baltimore by 13.

Detroit (+2.5) at Chicago
I’m torn. The Bears certainly ought to be able to handle the Lions at home. This isn’t, after all, the same Chicago squad that got stomped in Detroit five weeks back. Still, the Bears are playing on a short week, and coming off a hard-won victory in Philadelphia. You have to wonder whether they have enough left in the tank. It’s a coin toss. I’m gonna go with the home team to be safe, but I’ll hedge by picking the Bears to win but not cover. Chicago by a point.

NY Giants (+3.5) at San Francisco
You don’t beat tough opponents on the road two weeks running. You just don’t. San Francisco by six.

New England (+1.5) at NY Jets
The Frat Boys are an average team playing their best football. The Patriots are a better than average team playing their worst football. That’s all it takes. Unless New England finds a way to break out of the slump it’s been in for three games now (though the Patriots only lost two of those), there’s no way they overcome their division rivals in New Jersey. Frat Boys by a field goal.

Minnesota (+13.5) at Green Bay
I’ve got nothing — not a blessed thing — against the Packers. And if anyone in the NFL has earned his success, it’s Aaron Rodgers. But please, please, please can we at least wait until Green Bay gets to 14-0 before we start talking about whether they can achieve 19-0? Would that be possible? Green Bay by halftime. (And also by 20.)

Wait, how did we get to the middle of the season so quickly? And why don’t I know anything more than I knew eight weeks ago? Ugh. Here’s what not to expect in week nine.

Miami (+4) at Kansas City
There’s a perception that the Dolphins, though they always find a way to lose, manage to keep it close on the scoreboard. And that’s been true — in three of Miami’s seven games. In the other four, they’ve lost by double digits. So, you know, there’s that. Kansas City by 10.

Tampa Bay (+8) at New Orleans
I don’t know if the fact that the Saints can’t afford to lose this game really counts for all that much. I mean, it counts in the standings; I get that. The Bucs are up a game in the season series. A loss here would mean the Saints will need help to capture the NFC South title. So, yeah, that counts. What I’m saying, though, is that I’m not sure that’s enough. New Orleans ought to be able to beat Tampa Bay. They’re at home. They have an actual offense that shows up almost every week — unlike the Bucs’ occasional offense. And while the Saints don’t have much of a defense to speak of, neither do the Bucs. But the fact of the matter is, the Saints under Sean Payton have struggled against the Buccaneers. They’ve managed to lose some games to Tampa Bay even when the Bucs were a bad team. The Bucs this season may not be an elite squad, but they’re certainly not bad. My gut says the Saints will find a way to come out of this one with a win, but I’m not giving anything close to eight points. New Orleans by one.

Cleveland (+11) at Houston
Of all the Cleveland Browns in the world, this team is the Cleveland Browniest. Texans by 14.

Atlanta (-7) at Indianapolis
The Falcons have a winning record despite the fact that they’ve given up five more points than they’ve scored over their first seven games. The Colts have 0-7 record on account of having given up a league-worst 131 more points than they’ve scored. I don’t care what stadium this game’s being played in, I’m taking Atlanta, and I’d give as many as 10.

NY Jets (+1.5) at Buffalo
This is where the Frat Boys not actually being very good starts to catch up with them. Just as their inability to run the ball or stop the run hurt them a few weeks back in Foxborough, I think it kills them this weekend in Buffalo. Mark Sanchez throws three picks and the Bills win by nine.

San Francisco (-3.5) at Washington
So after three straight losses, we’re done talking about Washington as potential NFC East contenders, right? The truth of the Native Americans is that they can’t pass, can’t run, can’t score, can’t stop and run, quite possibly can’t stop the pass (the stats make it look like they can maybe stop the pass but that might just be because opponents haven’t needed to pass the ball to beat them), can’t hold onto the ball and, except for a surprising, in retrospect, week one victory over the Giants, can’t beat good opponents. The Niners, in case you hadn’t noticed, are 6-1 and about two weeks away from clinching the NFC West. San Francisco by a touchdown.

Seattle (+11.5) at Dallas
Boy, oh, boy am I glad I don’t have to watch this game. I don’t really even want to think about this game. So I won’t. I don’t think the Cowboys are good enough to outscore anyone by eleven and a half, so I’ll take Seattle to cover. But, yeah, Dallas wins (and the national media spends the next week talking about how the Cowboys look like they may be contenders in the NFC North again — even though they’re clearly not).

Cincinnati (+3) at Tennessee
Even teams that have a running offense have trouble running the ball against the Bengals. And the Titans enter that equation at a distinct disadvantage. And since one dimensionality doesn’t win football games against strong opponents (that’s right, I just used the word strong to describe the Bengals) I’m taking Cincy to pull off the upset here. Bengals by a field goal.

Denver (+8) at Oakland
The Raiders are going to be in serious trouble if they don’t get Darren McFadden (AKA the Oakand offense) back on the field soon. But not this week, because this week’s opponent sucks. Oakland by a touchdown.

NY Giants (+8.5) at New England
Eight and a half seems rather excessive to me. Because, yeah, the Patriots don’t lose at home. And, yeah, the Giants are dealing with some offensive injury issues. And, no, Eli Manning is not now, never has been and never will be an elite quarterback. All that said, the Giants have something the Patriots don’t: a pass rush. New Jersey has the ability to get to Tom Brady in spite of New England’s stout offensive line. And while I don’t think the Giants can get after the Patriots’ receivers and disrupt the rhythm of the passing game the way the Steelers did last Sunday, it seems likely that Manning’s going to have an easier afternoon than Brady. I think Brady and the New England offense will find a way to get the job done, but not to the tune of eight and a half points. Patriots by three.

St. Louis (+3.5) at Arizona
Really? I’m supposed to say something about this battle of the backup quarterbacks? I’m not sure what that could possibly be. I’ll just take the Rams to pull off the upset (pure gut) and call it a day. St. Louis by a point.

Green Bay (-5.5) at San Diego
Here’s some fairly simple reasoning: If the Chargers can’t beat good teams, and the Packers are probably the best team in the NFL, then the Chargers (that’s right) can’t beat the Packers. That wasn’t so hard, was it? Green Bay by two touchdowns.

Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh
The question I keep hearing in regard to this game is, can the Steelers DBs use the same press man approach they employed to disrupt the Patriots offense last week to disrupt the Ravens offense in this game? The answer is, sure, probably. The follow-up question I keep asking though, is, does it matter? The Ravens aren’t the Patriots. The don’t have New England’s offense. The also don’t rely on offense the way New England does. More important, the Ravens, unlike the Patriots, have an actual defense. In fact, defense is how the Ravens win. And I don’t believe for one minute that the Pittsburgh O line can stand up to the Baltimore defensive front. I don’t expect to see the kind of destruction the Ravens visited upon the Steelers back in week one, but I don expect to see Baltimore complete the season sweep and position themselves to take the NFC North title. Baltimore by six.

Chicago (+8) at Philadelphia
I’d love to be one of those people who believe that Chicago is gonna keep this one close. But I’m not. Eagles by 13.

New Orleans (-13) at St. Louis
Statistically speaking, the St. Louis offense is about half as productive as the Indianapolis offense. But that’s mainly the St. Louis offense as quarterbacked by Sam Bradford, which isn’t the St. Louis offense that will be on the field for this game (or so it would appear). And even if Bradford were playing, we’re talking about half the usual production of an Indy offense that managed seven points against New Orleans on Sunday night. That ain’t pretty. The good news for the Rams is that their defense has performed better this season than the Colts’ D. Except, you know, for the fact that they give up 184 yards a game on the ground (no, that’s not a typo). So, Drew Brees probably won’t have another 325-yard, five TD outing (I know, I’m going way out on a limb here, right?), mostly because he won’t have to. And 62 points is probably out of the question. Still, I expect this game to take all of about two and a half hours to play and for the Saints to outpace the Rams by a solid four touchdowns.

Jacksonville (+9.5) at Houston
Wow. The 2-5 Jaguars almost looked like an actual pro football team on Monday night, didn’t they? You know that’s not gonna last, right? Of course you do, because you’re not a Jacksonville fan. (Nobody’s a Jacksonville fan.) Houston by 13.

Miami (+10) at NY Giants
I predict that Miami will be behind 24-3 with two and a half minutes to play and will end up losing 41-3. It won’t be about the Giants running up the score. It’s just that professional football players typically don’t tackle themselves.

Arizona (+13) at Baltimore
One thing I can say with certainty about the NFL is that when the inept travel to face the angry, things have a way of getting ugly quick. Ravens by 10.

Indianapolis (+9) at Tennessee
I think it’s safe to say the Tennessee Titans aren’t putting up 62 points on anyone. I think it’s also safe to say that the Indianapolis Colts have officially packed it in for 2012. Titans by 10.

Minnesota (+3.5) at Carolina
If this game were in Minnesota, I’d take the Vikings. Minnesota played well against Green Bay last week. And I continue to be concerned about Cam Newton‘s tendency to throw to defensive backs. But the game isn’t in Minnesota. And I don’t think the Vikings DBs have the ballhawking skills to take advantage of Newton on his home turf. Panthers by a field goal.

Detroit (-2.5) at Denver
So, wait, the Broncos actually sort of played football for three minutes but mostly fell ass backward into overcoming maybe the worst team in the NFL. And now I’m supposed to believe they can keep it competitive with the Lions? Because, what? The Lions might have to go with their backup quarterback? Really? Because, um, no. Sorry, but I’m not buying it. It isn’t really a matter of whether the Lions offense can succeed against the Broncos (though, you know, Detroit will put up points regardless of who’s behind center). It’s a matter of whether the Broncos offense can succeed against a team that isn’t likely to self-destruct. And, sorry, Tim, but I just don’t see it. Detroit picks off Tebow three times and wins by two touchdowns (one of them a defensive score).

Washington (+6) vs. Buffalo at Rogers Centre, Toronto
Wait a minute. Did you say the Bills put Shawne Merriman on IR? That would seem to indicate that Merriman has actually been on the Bills’ roster. Interesting. I hadn’t noticed. The team with the injury news that doesn’t matter tops the team with the injury news that matters a lot by a touchdown.

Cincinnati (-3) at Seattle
The Seahawks eked out 137 yards of offense last weekend in Cleveland. Total. They controlled the ball for 17 minutes. Total. They’re a joke. A total, total joke. Of course, the Bengals are only marginally better than the Browns. They’re also traveling cross country for this one. So I’m not giving more than a point. And there you have it: Bengals by one.

New England (-3) at Pittsburgh
The Steelers, when they’re good, don’t match up well with the Patriots. So what happens when the Steelers are bad? I think the Pittsburgh O line is gonna make the New England pass rush look a whole lot better than it is (which isn’t to say that the Patriots defensive front isn’t coming around — it might be — just that you won’t be able to conclude that it is based on what happens here) and Ben Douchelisbagger is gonna make the New England DBs look like the greatest ballhawks in football. All while Tom Brady once again carves up the Pittsburgh D.  Patriots by two touchdowns.

Cleveland (+9.5) at San Francisco
If you barely squeak by one of the NFC West’s three awful teams at home one week, what happens when you travel to face the division’s one good team the next? 49ers by a touchdown.

Dallas (+3.5) at Philadelphia
All I’m gonna say is that it’s really, really hard to run the ball against the Cowboys. Dallas by a point.

San Diego (-3.5) at Kansas City
The Chargers, fresh off a ridiculous collapse in New Jersey last weekend, undertake a second consecutive road game. This time, San Diego a division rival that appears to be on the verge of turning its season around. I haven’t been impressed with Philip Rivers all season long and I certainly don’t expect him to improve against a Kansas City defense that has picked off 11 balls over its first six games. Kansas City comes out on top by a field goal and pulls into official contention for the AFC West title.

The last four games of this week are outright gimmes. The first nine are all pretty evenly matched and tough to pick. So, perhaps more than usual, here’s what not to expect.

San Diego (-2) at NY Jets
I don’t know about anyone else, but the whole Rex Ryan–Norv Turner dustup over who’s been the most disappointing head coach (for my money, the edge right now is on Turner, but only because he’s had far more opportunities to fail; Ryan may well pass him yet) has got me thinking about which of these two teams is the most overrated. I mean, look, going into the season, a lot of people, fans and media types alike, would have told you this game was one with potential playoff seeding implications. As of right now, it appears to me that the only way either of these teams will even qualify for the tournament is if Oakland’s shiny new(ish) quarterback fails to deliver (which is actually somewhere between somewhat and rather likely given the difficulties of jumping out of semi-retirment and getting comfortable with new receivers with a third of a season in the books). Think what you will, but the reality is that there’s no concrete evidence that either squad can beat a strong opponent. The last time the Frat Boys triumphed over a team that one could even attempt to describe as “good” was week one, when they edged the Cowboys (current record: 2-3) 27-24. That win took place in East Rutherford and came only by way of a classic Tony Romo blunder. New Jersey’s other two wins have come at the expense of the 1-5 Jacksonville Jaguars and the 0-5 Miami Dolphins. In their three games against teams with winning records (Oakland, Baltimore and New England), the Frat Boys have lost by 10, 17 and 9 points. Of course, it’s not like the Chargers have been laying waste to the better part of the league, either. Yeah, San Diego comes in to this game with a record of 4-1. But, just like the Frat Boys, the Chargers have yet to overcome an opponent that anyone would describe as formidable. The Chargers have beat the Vikings (currently 1-5), Chiefs (2-3), Dolphins (0-5), and Broncos (1-4). Also like the Frat Boys, when the Chargers faced a good team, the Patriots, they got their asses kicked. So I’ll have to ask you to forgive me if my eyes roll fairly deep into my head at talk of who would have earned what rings where. As for the actual game, well, there’s at least a 96 percent chance that one of these teams is gonna win. Which one? Well, if you were to go by the established pattern, both beat teams with losing records and lost to teams with winning records, you’d have to pick the Chargers. Not sure that holds up here, though, partly because San Diego is one of those West Coast teams that traditionally don’t fare so well when they travel east and partly because the Chargers can’t hold onto the ball. San Diego’s -5 giveaway/takeaway differential is problematic to say the least. Philip Rivers has thrown seven picks through five games, while the Frat Boys D has logged nine interceptions in six games. That’s a tough combination. The Chargers also have managed to fumble away three balls. And while 10 giveaways isn’t a seriously troublesome stat in and of itself (not like, say, the Philadelphia Eagles’ 17), it becomes an issue when you’ve only managed five takeaways, all of them picks. To keep things fairly even, the Chargers will need to capitalize on the Frat Boys’ fairly bad case of fumblitis, and so far this season there’s no indication they can do that. What the Chargers can do is run the ball. The Frat Boys can’t (or at least they haven’t). That means San Diego brings the more balanced offensive attack into this game. The Chargers also bring in an arguably better defense. Those factors should help even things up enough that I expect the win here will go to whichever team has the ball last. I’m going to give New Jersey the edge, but only because they’re the home team. I think they win by a point. But if it goes the other way, my jaw won’t exactly hit the floor.

Chicago (-1) vs Tampa Bay at Wembley Stadium, London
Not for one minute (not one, I tell you) am I buying into the notion that the Bears’ Sunday night dismantling of the Minnesota Vikings makes Chicago a good team. Sorry, Bears, but you’ve given up 19 sacks already this season. That has been a problem, and it’s going to continue to be a problem. Tampa Bay by four.

Seattle (+3) at Cleveland
The Seahawks are facing the reality that 8-8 won’t win the NFC West this year (for a change). The Browns are facing the reality that they’re still the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are also the home team here, so let’s go ahead and look for them to win, if only by a point or two.

Atlanta (+3.5) at Detroit
You have to wonder how many running backs the Lions can lose for the season before their offense becomes problematically one-dimensional. Of course, I don’t think it’s a question we’re likely to get an answer to this weekend, since the Falcons have exhibited absolutely no ability to stop the pass. Take that factor, add the Lions’ D and home field, and I think you get a six-point Detroit victory.

Denver (+1.5) at Miami
I really, really, really need the Dolphins to win this game. Decisively. Because I simply can’t bear the thought that I might have to hear another word about Tim goddamn Tebow, the most overhyped, overrated quarterback in NFL history. And you know when you’re in trouble? When you really, really, really need the thoroughly inept Miami Dolphins to win a game. Because it just ain’t happening. Broncos by a field goal.

Houston (+3) at Tennessee
One of these mediocre football teams is gonna win the AFC South title. And lose in the first round of the playoffs. Hooray! If the Titans has any kind of balance on offense, I’d figure them to take this one easily — you know, what with being at home and all. But they don’t; can’t run the ball to save their lives. And they’re facing a team with a pretty solid pass defense. Still ans all, the Titans are coming off a bye and the Texans are traveling for the second straight week. So I’ll take the home team to win, though I’m looking for a push with the points.

Washington (+2.5) at Carolina
Who throws the most picks in this game, Rex Grossman or Cam Newton? Seriously. I’m asking because the answer is where the difference comes from. My money’s on the rookie. Native Americans by four.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Arizona
The Steelers’ offensive line woes could pose a problem again this week. The Cardinals haven’t shown much this season, but they evinced some ability to get to the quarterback. I don’t think knocking Ben Douchelisbagger on his patoot will be quite enough, though. The Steelers are 4-2 on the season primarily because of their ability to take advantage of weak opponents. And the Cardinals are nothing if not a weak opponent. Pittsburgh by three.

Kansas City (+4.5) at Oakland
The Chiefs can’t move the ball on offense, can’t stop the run on defense, can’t hold opponents to under 30 points, can’t take away the ball, can’t hold onto the ball. So, while I guess it’s fun to speculate, I’m not sure the question of who the Raiders start at quarterback ultimately matters all that much here. Oakland by no less than a touchdown.

Green Bay (-9) at Minnesota
Nine? I’m sorry, but did anyone see what the Chicago Bears did to Minnesota on Sunday night? Anybody? Green Bay by 20.

St. Louis (+12.5) at Dallas
Look, it’s a team even Tony Romo can’t find a way to lose to. Dallas by 14.

Indianapolis (+14) at New Orleans
Here’s another one of those games that must have looked like a surefire ratings bonanza to the schedule makers back in the spring. Peyton Manning playing in his home town against his dad’s team. Maybe it would even be called a Super Bowl preview. Now? Not so much. Just another in this season’s string of dud prime time games. Ugh. New Orleans by 13.

Baltimore (-7.5) at Jacksonville
And the prime time blowout parade continues. I don’t care what stadium this game is played in, the Ravens win it by two touchdowns minimum.

Things are starting to make sense in the NFL, as they typically do around this time in any given season. And the fact that I think that probably just means I’ll be even more off the mark than usual this week. Here’s what not to expect.

Carolina (+3.5) at Atlanta
This game’s been a popular upset pick this week. I get it, too. Because, hey, while neither of these teams has had any success this season keeping opponents out of the end zone, the Panthers at least have been able to put up some points of their own. The Falcons, not so much. And that’s been with Julio Jones on the field averaging five catches per game and better than 14 yards per catch. It would be absurd to believe the Atlanta passing attack can be more effective without Jones. So there you go. Upset, right? Only, I’m not sure passing the ball all over the field is the way you beat Cam Newton and the Panthers. It’s no secret that Carolina can’t stop the run. So if you’re the Falcons, you focus on rushing the football, something you certainly should have the ability to do behind Michael Turner, who’s averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Assuming Atlanta’s able to keep the ball on the ground, and assuming that while both of these teams have been giving the ball away far too much, the Falcons continue to be slightly better at taking it away, I’m thinking the home team manages a win in spite of the injury situation. Atlanta by a field goal.

Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
I keep thinking that eventually the Eagles have to stop losing games. But lately I’ve been wondering why I keep thinking that. And you know what? I don’t  have a good answer. I do know that traveling to face a well rested division opponent with a solid defense (though the Native Americans run D, which allows 4.3 yards per carry, isn’t nearly so impressive as their 84 yards per game average makes it look, Washington nonetheless has given up less than 16 points per game this season) isn’t what one would call a sure way to get things turned around. So I’m not expecting the Eagles to get things turned around. Not this week. And, given the ineptitude of Philly’s linebacking corps, maybe not this season. Washington by six.

St. Louis (+14.5) at Green Bay
The Rams have been outscored by an average of 17 points per game this season. And now they get to travel to face the highest scoring offense in the league. What more do you need to know? Packers by 20.

Indianapolis (+6.5) at Cincinnati
Well, the Bengals have a defense, anyway. So that’s something. Cincinnati by a touchdown.

Buffalo (+3) at NY Giants
I don’t believe either of these teams is as good as it’s record, which gets me exactly nowhere in figuring out which will win this game. Injuries are stacking up for the 4-1 Bills, and a correction is coming at some point with or without them. The 3-2 Giants, on the other hand, are coming off an embarrassing home loss to Seattle and looking pretty shaky for it. I’m tempted to pick New Jersey, mainly because they’re at home and they really can’t afford another loss in the Meadowlands. But I can’t stop thinking about Eli Manning, who’s been making a living off of incredibly athletic plays by his receivers thus far this season, facing a defense that has picked off a league-best 12 balls through five games. So I’m taking Buffalo to pull off the upset here. Bills by three.

Jacksonville (+12.5) at Pittsburgh
I’m not sure I quite buy into the notion that the Steelers turned their season around by stomping on the Titans last weekend (not saying the win wasn’t impressive — it was — just that I need to see more from a Pittsburgh team that has been anything but impressive going into that game). But I do buy into the notion that the Jaguars are pitiful. So, sure, I’ll take Pittsburgh. I’m not giving twelve and a half, mind you. Ten seems more reasonable to me.

San Francisco (+4) at Detroit
If the 49ers hadn’t just lost one of their best wide receivers, you’d probably have to think they could go into Ford Field and at least challenge the Lions. But San Francisco did just put Josh Morgan on IR. And while you have to believe the Niners defense will manage to keep it close, there’s simply no way I can pick their hobbled offense to overcome the Lions D. Detroit gets to 6-0, winning by a field goal.

Cleveland (+6.5) at Oakland
Yeah, I get that this is the Raiders’ first home game since the death of Al Davis. And Oakland had a big, emotional win a week ago, playing for the first time since Davis passed. That’s nice and all, but the thing is emotion only gets you so far in the the NFL. You know what will get you somewhere consistently? Putting a punishing ground attack up against a defense that can’t stop the run. That’s how you win football games. Oakland by seven.

Houston (+7) at Baltimore
No Andre Johnson. No Mario Williams. No chance. Baltimore by nine.

New Orleans (-6) at Tampa Bay
It doesn’t matter what stadium you’re playing in, you have to be able to put up a lot of points to beat the New Orleans Saints. And the Bucs simply don’t put up a lot of points. Saints by two touchdowns.

Dallas (+6) at New England
OK, if I have to hear one more word about how the Cowboys can challenge the Patriots in Foxborough because they’re rested and their wide receivers have had a couple of weeks to get healthy, I’m going to lose my mind. Yes, it’s true, the Cowboys do have talented receivers. And, yes, the Patriots have given up far too many points to make anyone who roots for the team comfortable about their long-term prospects (things may get better as the defense logs more time as a unit, but they haven’t yet). But, um, the Cowboys still have Tony Romo, king of the stupid mistake, at quarterback. And he’s still playing behind a terribly shaky offensive line, right? Or were they able to correct that significant issue during the bye week without anyone noticing? New England by seven.

Minnesota (+2.5) at Chicago
The Bears have one of the worst offensive lines I’ve ever seen. Their defense has no ability to stop the run. And they’re playing on a short week and coming off a really ugly loss in Detroit. Yeah, you know what? I don’t care that the Vikings can’t pass worth a damn; I’m picking the upset here. Minnesota by a point.

Miami (+6.5) at NY Jets
The Frat Boys have to win this game, right? I mean, they have to. New Jersey has lost three straight; they’re two games behind the Patriots at the Bills in the AFC East. Their players are sniping at each other. Lose on national TV to a struggling Miami squad and things almost certainly will unravel in a hurry. And, you know, much as I’d love to see that happen, it won’t. Miami just doesn’t have the stuff.  New Jersey by a touchdown.

I’m short on time, so I’ll just get right to it. Here’s what not to expect.

New Orleans (-6.5) at Carolina
I was gonna point out that the Panthers defense is atrocious, but then I realized that’s not true. Carolina’s defense can’t be atrocious, because Carolina doesn’t have a defense. They’ve got an offense, though, so that’s something. Saints by two touchdowns.

Kansas City (+2) at Indianapolis
I did see the Manningless Colts play well enough not to get stomped on by the Buccaneers on Monday night. I agree, it was impressive in a weird little way. That’s all very nice, but it doesn’t mean Indy is going to get its first win this weekend. Because, look, you beat the Chiefs by running the ball. And the Colts don’t know how to run the ball. So there you go. Kansas City by a point.

Philadelphia (-3) at Buffalo
I think there’s a distinct possibility no one ever throws the ball in this game. I mean, why bother? Neither defense can stop the run worth a damn. The world turns rightside up and the Eagles come out on top, though only by a point.

Seattle (+10) at NY Giants
Before the season started, when I predicted a tough year for the Giants, a friend on Facebook (not a Facebook friend, mind you, a real one who is also on Facebook) commented that I must not have looked at New Jersey’s easy schedule. He had a point. Here come the Seahawks, whose coach is proud of the fact that they didn’t get beat too badly last week, which is one of the many reasons Pete continues to be unsuccessful as an NFL head coach. Maybe this week, he can be proud of his team for not losing by double digits. Giants by nine.

Cincinnati (+2) at Jacksonville
The Bengals have a surprisingly good defense. The Jaguars have a defense, at least some of the time. Cincy by six.

Tennessee (+3) at Pittsburgh
Can someone explain to me how it is that the Titans are getting points in this game. Is it because the Steelers are supposed to be good? Because there’s a difference between a team that’s supposed to be good and one that’s, you know, actually good. Let’s see if Pittsburgh’s horrendous O line can figure out how to protect the quarterback, or the Steelers’ skill players can figure out how to hold onto the damned ball, before we install them as favorites again — on any field — shall we? Titans by four.

Oakland (+5.5) at Houston
Another game that I expect will be all about running offense. I’m not exactly going out on a limb here. Both offenses specialize in the run, and neither defense can stop it. I’m taking the Texans because they’re at home, but I’m not giving five and a half. I’m thinking the difference will come down to something more like three.

Arizona (+2.5) at Minnesota
Which former Eagles quarterback has been more disappointing this season? Yeah, I don’t care either. Vikings by a point.

Tampa Bay (+3) at San Francisco
Just about every week, there’s a game on the schedule that I’m certain will be decided by turnovers. This week, it’s this one. The Niners are great at taking the ball away. The Buccaneers aren’t sloppy by any means, but they’re at a disadvantage here. San Francisco by three.

NY Jets (+9) at New England
I’m sorry, but nine points is just insane in this game. OK, sure, the Frat Boys did just get their asses kicked by the Ravens last Sunday night. And, sure, New Jersey has an O line that’s … well it’s truly offensive, isn’t it? And, yes, the Frat Boys are on the road for the third straight week. It’s also true that the Patriots’ run game is better than it’s getting credit for being (the fact that the team hasn’t run the ball much this season doesn’t indicate that it can’t, just that they happen to have a great passer and they choose to use him). And the New England defense is getting healthier. That’s all well and good. I think the Pats win this game. But nine would be an absurd spread in any division game in which one of the teams doesn’t outright stink, and I don’t really think New Jersey has fallen that far. So let’s go with something more realistic. I’m thinking New England by three, four at the most.

San Diego (-4) at Denver
This game might be interesting to watch just to see two teams fumble the ball back and forth to each other. The Chargers have been getting away with some truly awful football so far this season. The Broncos haven’t. I can’t see any reason to expect anything different here. San Diego by six.

Green Bay (-6) at Atlanta
The Falcons may yet right the ship and do something with this season. But it won’t be this week. Not against the defending, and quite possibly repeat, champions. Packers by 10.

Chicago (+5) at Detroit
Bears awful offensive line, meet Ndamukong Suh. Lions by 17.